Will A New AWB Happen: A Poll

[GEM]

I think (haha), we will not see a full AWB. I think we may see a mandatory NICS for private sales at gun shows with enhanced reported by the states. Just a hunch.

I have a proposal - if the latter is going to pass, I would (the great legislative genius that I am) add to the legislation the following:

1. Since the upgraded NICS is so good, then in all states, a citizen who passes should be able to purchase a firearm to have in their home or place of business. The check would be sufficient and no state or local entity can demand more.

Such an addition would be based on Heller and override the state laws and city regs. in places like NYC or IL or DC, etc. the horror show of getting a firearm for the home would be washed away and Mayor Bloomer would have swallow a big gulp on this one.

I've seen this done is some other states. Some minor gun law got us CCW in Oregon , IIRC.

Would I like to mandate shall issue carry in all places - yep. But what I proposed might be doable if it came to such a private sale law.

 

[psyopspec]

I work in finance. People who have the hubris to think they can predict the future with any consistency or accuracy don't hang around long. Why? Because it can't be done.

 

[ETXhiker]

A ban like the '94 law is not the worst case scenario. Many prominent politicians want outright confiscation. Yes, this would generate a backlash, but if you think it is too radical for the current administration, you aren't paying attention. I hope I'm wrong.

Hold on, 2013 is going to be a bumpy ride.

 

[mljdeckard]

This battle is mostly psychological. If they have gun owners convinced that they are already beaten, YOU ARE DOING THEIR WORK FOR THEM.

 

[Cosmoline]

The momentum is already leaving the sails, just as it always does:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2013/01/gun-control-doesnt-survive-christmas-153146.html

What we know:

--Congress is barely functional. Legislation that's been seen as routine for 200 years now requires all-nighters over New Years to pass.

--The antis have no clear agenda. They have no NRA. Their leaders have been all over the map on proposals, or lack thereof. Reviving a failed AWB is about the best they've come up with, and the chances of reenacting a law that was allowed to die are already stacked against them.

--The antis have very little technical knowledge. This cripples their ability to target pinch-points like primer production and forces them to rely on short-term emotional appeals.

--We don't live under a parliamentary system with a national government. We have a federalist system with a divided central government. So while emotional appeals can get traction in places like the UK and AU, they don't do so here absent HIGHLY extraordinary circumstances like 9/11.

--The antis seem unable to build on their successes. NICS is a good example. The most successful gun control law of our lifetimes. But they don't seem willing to call for its expansion openly. They claim it's about a "gun show loophole" instead of owning their victory and moving forward with it.

--The foreign antis have been helping us enormously. From the PM of Australia to Piers Morgan, their emotional confiscation rhetoric helps to make the antis look dangerously unhinged.

--Money talks. The influx of cash into EBR's and components has spoken volumes about the power of our numbers. And on the flip side, the fed's inability to make payroll on a reliable basis speaks volumes about its shortcomings. Any sweeping new law outlawing huge classes of arms will be expensive to implement. And they don't have any money. I'm worried more about them coming for our cash than our guns.

 

[gbw]

JUst one opinion...

I've watched carefully over the past years on many issues. The party out of power has been consistently out-thought, out-manouvered, out-worked, out-smarted, out-led, out-propagandized, and out-stratigized to a degree I would never have believed.

But they keep putting up the same lame, weak, confused, mediocre, stereotypical dimwits as leaders and candidates.

The party in power will find ways to do whatever they want, and it won't be hard for them. Do not count on the House of Representatives to help with anything. Expecting anything courageous or useful from our leadership is nothing but whistling past the graveyard.

 

[razorback2003]

I don't think Boehner will let this out of committee in the House.

In Tennessee, I have heard that we at one time had to get purchase permits from the county to buy a handgun. I have no idea if this was required to buy from a dealer or private individual. That is not the case anymore.


I could see cheap foreign 7.62 X 39 ammo stopped from being imported by the president.

 

[cfullgraf]

In Tennessee, I have heard that we at one time had to get purchase permits from the county to buy a handgun. I have no idea if this was required to buy from a dealer or private individual. That is not the case anymore.

In the 90s, I had to get written permission from my local TN county sheriff to buy a Contender handgun from a local FFL dealer. By the time I bought my next fire arm in TN, that was no longer the case, maybe after the instant check system was instated.

In my opinion, a gun ban is less likely until after the 2014 elections.

Depending on how the Republicans screw up during the next two years will depend on if they hold onto the House. If the Democrats get a hold of Congress, all bets are off on defeating a new Assault Weapons Ban.

The administration is viewing, per the media, that the current fiscal cliff avoidance as a victory. They will push harder on other agenda items to be passed their way.

Unfortunately, the administration campaigns for legislation in the press preventing meaningful negotiations among the members of Congress.

 

[Skribs]

I agree with those that say we can't become complacent, but can't panic, either. We need to be level-headed and logical in our approach, and diligent in our pursuit to preserve our rights.

Very good points, Cosmoline.

 

[leadchucker]

Panic buying is crazy, there will be no new AWB!

That's what they were saying in '94.

 

[barnbwt]

The administration is viewing, per the media, that the current fiscal cliff avoidance as a victory. They will push harder on other agenda items to be passed their way.

All the more reason to stymie the anti's now--keep the momentum neutral. I certaintly do love the logic that "we say we won, so now you have to follow us." Now that both parties have been trying that for an administration or two, they've both amassed so much "political capital" that they can't do anything

Let's not make the mistake of House Republicans and allow ourselves to be divided in this struggle by a false promise of "victory" in the form of compromise.

TCB

 

[Ms_Dragon]

I don't think anything will happen to be honest.

The American population is all ready worried about their financial security waiting for the fall out of the fiscal cliff negotiations.
Any further attempt to undermine the populations feeling of personal security by threatening the right to bear arms and their rights to protect their families will result in civil unrest.

 

[wannabeagunsmith]

Guys, this AWB is nothing like the last one.

 

[ETXhiker]

This battle is mostly psychological. If they have gun owners convinced that they are already beaten, YOU ARE DOING THEIR WORK FOR THEM.

No, that is not the problem. The problem is that they underestimate our resolve and believe they have the momentum behind them. I am not beaten and I will not register or give up my guns. The danger on our side is believing we are dealing with a government that still respects the Constitution. We are not beaten, but they are drunk with power and full of utopian ideas. If the House votes their bill down, there is still the "Executive Order" which dems have hinted will be used if necessary.

I am anything but defeated. We will win this. But underestimating your enemy is a good way to lose. It isn't "panic" to simply recognize when things are going in a bad direction.

 

[-v-]

Well, seeing as the whole fiscal cliff vote did little more then kick the can down the road another 2 months. The fiasco we just witnessed is only part one of a many part series. This whole mess is going to be repeated again in February, everyone knows it.

I highly doubt that members of both parties will have the capital, momentum, or interest to play with an AWB, when as Cosmoline, MS_Dragon and others have said, trying to meet payroll will end up eating so much of the Congress's time and energy. Plus, as the year goes on, Berry will increasingly move into lame duck territory where he will have a hard time proposing or pushing along any sort of bill at all, barring routine housekeeping stuff.

 

[leadchucker]

The Democrats could conceivable control both houses, and of course the white house, in 2014, and they will, if the media has anything to do with it. Just like in '94.

Take this threat seriously.

 

[GEM]

Given the GOP battle over joining the Democrats on the fiscal cliff bills - which may have been a true emergency (sigh) - I can't see them doing that again for the AWB. That would truly antagonize their base for no real outcome.

 

[kayakersteve]

I think the dems will propose a very strict AWB, but by the time it becomes law, it will be very similar to 94 ban. Only exception I see is no sunset clause this time.

 

[ChCx2744]

I don't really care about the guns or the mags, I just don't want anything to happen to ammo prices or nonavailability

 

[LiveLife]

As public/lawmakers' priorities shift to more pressing fiscal concerns, support for AWB may likely wane. As Obama already stated, any new AWB will require significant public support. As this article indicates, Obama is facing a public that is growing more pessimistic and weary on the start of his second term. By the time lawmakers address the second fiscal cliff and the public agonizes over tax returns in April, the pessimistic and weary sentiment may grow even more.

As President Barack Obama heads into his second term, he faces a pessimistic and weary public, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released late Tuesday.

The percentage of Americans satisfied with the direction of the country stands at a paltry 23 percent in a poll taken Dec. 14-17. By a margin of 50 to 47 percent, respondents said the country's best years are over.

Fifty percent of respondents said it is somewhat or very unlikely that today's youth will have a better life than their parents.

That pessimism and negativity extends to the president, according to the poll.

 

[Stevie-Ray]

I don't know how extensive it will be, but I firmly believe feel-good legislation is in the offing. Just as last time, it will obviously do no good, but I also don't believe there will be a sunset date this time. I fear repubs will cave for at least some of it.

Everything had better be grandfathered.

 

[Hokkmike]

I refuse to offer the suggestion that an AWB is acceptable by voting "yes" in the poll although I think some politicians have but themselves in a position where they must do something to save face.

 

[USgunguy]

Principles

I believe our vulnerability to losing the 2nd amendment continues to rise with every generation. This occurs because we are quickly becoming a nation that does not value principles over our individual opinions in unique situations. Whenever the lengthy conversations about gun control measures arise you hear far more about what will work and what will not work than you hear about the principles behind the 2nd amendment. To me standing for a principle means supporting it when it hurts you just as strongly as when it helps you. You do that based on the big picture and not the flavor of the day.....more importantly because you are a man of principles.

For instance, we should support people's rights to burn a flag or build a Mosque. Not because we like it, but because of the principles of free speech, peaceful assembly, and freedom of religion are far to valuable to compromise them even when we desperately want to. Now granted the ACLU will not support us on the grounds of principle or the 2nd amendment, but we need to be clear that this is our position.

I believe our constitution and the Bill of Rights (not needs) were inspired by God and they should be defending accordingly. Yep...I'm too old to play the politically correct garbage. I don't get out of the shower to pee either.

So when you read in our postings, "I'm not worried about Mags I have plenty" or "All I am worried about is ammo restrictions and prices...I have plenty of guns & mags" we are clearly not dealing with men of principle.

Let's hang tough on the principles, and remember all of our rights are worth fighting for. The second amendment just ensures we have the means to fight tyranny in all forms.

 

[Bobson]

I'm really surprised by the difference between options 2 and 3, as far as the number of votes. I've never met anyone who believed high cap mags should be banned but "assault weapons" shouldn't. In other words, everyone I know is either full anti, or full support [for gun rights]. I believe our elected representatives are the same - all or none.

That being said, I'm convinced a new ban will be signed into law. Both weapons and high cap mags, until the bill expires. Is it gonna be ten years again?

 

[Bobson]

I refuse to offer the suggestion that an AWB is acceptable by voting "yes" in the poll although I think some politicians have but themselves in a position where they must do something to save face.

Stating that I believe a ban will be imposed is absolutely not an indicator that I believe a ban should be imposed. I don't know anyone who's more adamantly opposed to a future ban than I am; but I fully expect it to happen.