Will "the panic" end before 2016?

[Yo Mama]

So blame the manufacturers...... Ramp up production so the gov'ment can pass one law that puts them out of business.
Makes a lot of sense.

It's a non sequiter/ Why not just shut them all down? Because the gov can't. If they ramped up production this would all go away.

 

[scotjute]

Hope y'al are right and that the shortage will disappear. My fear is that it will not, particularly with reports coming out the miscellaneous Federal agencies buying billions of rounds of ammo, and Homeland Security ordering several hundred armored vehicles.

 

[Prince Yamato]

LGS have ammo returning to the shelves. Online... not so much. My guess is that Turkey or some country in Eastern Europe will pick up the slack and we'll be well stocked.

 

[mdauben]

If they ramped up production this would all go away.

All indications are that ammo manufacturers are current runing at their maximum capacity, trying to fill orders. To "ramp up" any more would require investing in additional facilities and/or equipment. Since they are not making that investment, the ammo manufactures at least must not feel that the current level of demand will last.

particularly with reports coming out the miscellaneous Federal agencies buying billions of rounds of ammo

I was under the impression that this had pretty well been debunked as a real cause of the current shortage? The hugh number of rounds quoted are multi year options (the gov't has the option to buy X number of rounds per year, up to a maximum of the "billions" numbers that the press is trumpeting). This does not represent actual commitments that the manufacture is already trying to fill, and they don't represent that significant of an increase over annual purchases for the last several years.

 

[itsa pain]

no doubt in my mind that gun and ammo makers paid the govt to ban norinco. we have not had pure competition capitalism for 150 years. ammo makers love this because they are using factories set up 30 years ago for a much smaller shooting population. norinco .308 ammo was so good I stopped reloading for my M1A. they would bury the country in ammo if allowed

 

[Yo Mama]

All indications are that ammo manufacturers are current runing at their maximum capacity, trying to fill orders. To "ramp up" any more would require investing in additional facilities and/or equipment. Since they are not making that investment, the ammo manufactures at least must not feel that the current level of demand will last.

I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.

 

[rdhood]

I go into Academy Sports once a week. Today, for the first time since December, there were hi cap magazines for AR-15, AK47, SKS, and a couple dozen pistols, all at near pre-panic prices.


The back of the magazine shortage is broken.

At various internet stores, uppers, lowers, BCGs are all in stock. At Dick's, 10/22s are in stock. This panic is almost over.



Ammo WILL follow.

 

[willroute]

I think the ammo will come back in 3-6 months. It put a hurt on the suppliers when all of their supply was exhausted. It will take some time to ramp back up, but hopefully this idiotic frenzy will subside. I fear that prices may never be the same though.

 

[FROGO207]

IMHO things are coming back a bit already around here. Last Sat I stopped at the LGS nearby they had some 7.62X39, 45 ACP, 9MM, 223/5.56, and 308 in stock. There was a variety of each and many boxes of each sitting on the shelves. Still lacking in SPP and 55 grain FMJ but reloading stuff is better also. Today I called Brownells and ordered some 15 round S&W pistol MAG's, some assorted firing pins and some Ruger parts----all in stock and sent out today.

 

[Constrictor]

After the Boston incedent i predict even more people will want to arm up because this world is so evil and the shortage won't end for years.

 

[22-rimfire]

It will end. I just hope that the new shooters "remember" and stock up a bit over a period of time when things get back to normal ammunition-wise. That way when the next shortage hits, there will be fewer who were not adequately prepared at least in the short term.

 

[freewheeling]

I'm spending what money I have on building a weapon, not on ammo. When I get my AR-15 put together I'll start looking for ammo but would rather spend it now on getting a good gun. I also have a few pistols and about 600 rounds of good .22LR and about 300 9mm. I know that's not considered much, but instead of practicing with it much I'm just using Airsoft. First priority is to built a very good highly accurate rifle that could also be used for defense pumping out a lot of rounds. It's about half done, so I need a few more pieces and then I expect to get a really serious yen for some .223 or 5.56 ammo. When things loosen up I'll start competing again... not to win, just to keep the edge. Also going to take some knife defense classes in the mean time. That's always useful and you don't have to spend money on ammo.

 

[freewheeling]

Oh, about Hillary

I'm a political scientist so I guess I have a little wisdom in this area and Hillary is way over-billed as a politician. She's really not very good. Her husband made her look good. And she's now old and, frankly, pretty damaged goods. If they can hang Benghazi on anyone they can hang it around Clinton's neck like a noose, and she knows it. That's why she gets a tummy ache.

Someone like Rubio could win. That is, it will have to be some good looking hyphenated American, because that will give women professionals the motive to vote for him to save their jobs. They're aching for someone they con vote for as job protection but still want to feel good about their vote, and they get the tolerance merit badge. And if he's good looking? Well heck, that's got nothing to do with anything, does it?

No the media will be out to kill Rubio (or whoever fits in that slot) so the online news sources are going to have to fight a savvy battle to nullify mainstream media. And they're going to have to get caught in a few blatant lies. And their solidarity is going to have to break. Someone will have to leave the fold and take the opportunity that's waiting, because online media can't do it alone yet.

But I'd say that if they can't get a gun bill past the Senate this time (they'll never get it past the House) then all those aspirations for gun control are dead for the near future. So you want the market to get back to "normal" kill the Senate Bill. Never let it see the light of day.

Mein zwei pfennig.

 

[SKILCZ]

The upside to the panic is that it reminds people about the value of the 2A to Americans. The panic keeps some people from becoming politically complacent.

 

[TheSaint]

SKILCZ,

True. Many more discussions around the dinner table, local watering hold and elsewhere are a good thing. Even out of something bad, can something good be born if we but look for it.

As for the panic buying, my LGS has 9mm and 45acp in stock for about 30% more than pre-panic prices. Still too rich for my tastes, but I"m already stocked up thankfully. I don't think the prices or availability issues will let up completely until well after hopefully all the new legislation is defeated and backorders are filled. To me, that means at least another 3-6 months of this madness. Hang tight folks, it is going to be bumpy for a while longer.

 

[cfullgraf]

I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.

The current maximum production capacity of the ammunition makers may have been fine 20 years ago, but it was also fine in September, 2012. I was not hearing about shortages back in September.

Adding large amounts of production capacity is not easy or trivial. Adding shifts, if available, and people are easy but yield only small incremental gains in capacity. There is a start up curve if adding new, untrained workers.

Chances are, the manufacturers did not have much available excess capacity in terms of equipment. It is expensive investments to have sit idle. To add production capacity probably means new building as well as new loading equipment. And, you just cannot just run down to Walmart and buy a new automated loading machine. Deliveries could be very long.

Then, there is the supply of components. Same problem with increasing production as with making more ammunition. Component manufacturers were running at some capacity level and they may not be able to make large increases in short term production.

If I were an executive at a ammunition manufacturer, I'd be buying Prilosec by the case.

 

[bri]

I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.

Manufacturers have raised prices?

 

[Yo Mama]

If I were an executive at a ammunition manufacturer, I'd be buying Prilosec by the case.

Now that's funny.

Manufacturers have raised prices?

http://rugerforum.net/ammo-dump/75844-ammo-price-increase-manufacturer.html

Many LGS are reporting this.

 

[mortablunt]

It'll either end or there will be an AWB before 2016. There is going to be an election panic every presidential election.

 

[mdauben]

I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago.

It was fine 1 year ago, too. There was no shortage of ammo before the panic that ensued after the CT shooting, when the government started pushing gun control legislation.

They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit.

Except they are not "making a huge profit", other than the fact that they are selling as much ammo as they can make. The fact that some outlets are still selling ammo at "pre-panic" pricing is proof that the manufacturers are not raising prices (at least by any significant percentage). The price increases are all on the retailers and resellers. Once the panic buying ends, prices will go down.

Its not panic, you and many like you remain ignorant of what's taking place, the market "expanded itself" dramatically. As a consequence there has been a correction, and prices are never coming back to what you have convinced yourself is normal.

I disagree with your reasoning. Certainly a lot of the guns sold recently were to "new" gun owners, thus "expanding" the demand for ammo. Most of these purchases, however, where panic purchases. Only a tiny percentage of these "new" gun owners will go on to be dedicated shooting enthusiasts who will provide an ongoing drain on the ammo supply. Most of them will shoot their guns a couple times at most and then store them in a closet and never touch them again.

Certainly, I don't see prices totaly returning to "pre-panic" levels, but that's because prices always increase over time. The current prices are not supported by the actual cost of manufacturing ammo, and if they were to continue someone would step up with more/new manufacturing capacity and undercut those selling at inflated prices, grabbing the market and forcing others to drop their prices to remain competative. That's what the free market is about.

 

[HankR]

cfullgraf: I was not hearing about shortages back in September.

But .22lr was $20 a brick, versus the pre-Obama price of half that

mdauben: Except they are not "making a huge profit" ...The fact that some outlets are still selling ammo at "pre-panic" pricing is proof that the manufacturers are not raising prices (at least by any significant percentage).

Maybe. I also suspect that Walmart et al engage in annual contracts for a certain amount of ammo at a set price throughout the year. (I'm just guessing here). I (half jokingly) accused the LGS owner of buying ammo at Walmart and selling it for double. He denied, and said he's only getting his "normal profit" selling bricks of .22 for $45.

mdauben: if they (high prices) were to continue someone would step up with more/new manufacturing capacity and undercut those selling at inflated prices, grabbing the market and forcing others to drop their prices to remain competative. That's what the free market is about.

But there is a lot of uncertainty in that market (as evidenced by this thread). It takes time to get new production on line. ROI takes even longer. Nobody wants to ramp up just as the prices start to ebb. This is compounded by the extreme government meddling in this particular market and liability issues with this particular product. I'm not surprised that no new production players are entering the market and not terribly surprised that the existing companies don't want to expand for what might be a minor bubble.

That said, I agree with mdauben and others that think it will ebb back towards pre-panic (or pre-whatever) prices. I hope that some of the new gunowners keep shooting, and keep lobbying, even if it means less ammo for the rest of us.

 

[PT92]

Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?

No one can say for sure as it's all conjecture. Problem as I see it is the world (not just our country) is rapidly changing to the point that what was once taken for granted (2A for example) as part of American Tradition and Culture must now be fought for and protected like never before. There are some definite attempts to transform America into a cookie-cut like UN country far different IMO than what our Founding Fathers intended. Naturally Panic ensues but if we work hard to resist the antis assault on our Constitution, we will be successful in curtailing the Panic.

 

[Jason_W]

Ammo will become more available as people max out the amount of cash or credit they can devote to ammo purchases. Prices will come back down a little from their current spike.

however, prices will continue to gradually increase over time. Copper keeps going up as does the cost of energy (required to manufacture and ship ammo). That's all passed on to the consumer.

 

[Ignition Override]

mdauben/fellow shooters:
Yesterday I called the DC office of TN Senator Bob Corker.

When the young staffer confirmed that it was his office, I voiced an opinion against any further gun control laws.
There was no indication that my opinion was even noted.

How do you determine that such a phone call is not wasted?

 

[xwingband]

Talked with the only Walmart clerk I think is not on the take and today they got some 22lr (which he said it's been a while), a case of .223 and 2 cases of 7.62. Another Walmart got 2 cases of .223 and 1 of 7.62. Both had 12ga 00 buckshot too which I haven't seen much of either. I think it's catching up on ammo. It may still be a bit but I think the major backlogs are filling and the trickle will start.

On guns I think it's way closer to done. I've seen loads of "evil" guns and other recently hard to get guns for at MSRP. Not deals, but they're there and not flying off the shelf. They certainly don't sit, but they're not bought immediately by someone in the store when it comes in.