Will there be panic buying if an Assault Weapons Ban case is heard by SCOTUS?

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True but it’s worth thinking about
If one thinks a panic is coming now is a good time to buy a bit more than one normally would. If not, then a continuation of slow and steady stocking up is wise.
Yeah I know but I feel like we've been living in "what if land" for years now. And every few months, this question is asked.

So here's my take on gun ownership in general these days. If you think you might want something that could get banned, don't even wait long enough to ask this question. Just look for a deal and get it when you see a good price.

Guns, ammo, powder, primers, all of it. If you think you might be able to make some money on a scare or shortage, the same applies.

The slow and steady stockpiling never stops for me. I don't do the "better get it now" buying.
 
If one thinks a panic is coming now is a good time to buy a bit more than one normally would. If not, then a continuation of slow and steady stocking up is wise.

Wow....pre-panic, panic buying.

Stocking up is good....if you're gonna need it. What I saw in the last two panic runs on AR style rifles was folks bought 'em when they didn't really need 'em....or really want one. Kinda why they didn't have one before. They bought 'em just because they thought they might not be able to get one, or they bought 'em to make money, once they were banned. Guess how that turned out? AR style rifles are less expensive and more available now than ever. Many of those guns bought just to have one are still in the box or have been shot very little. Those bought to make money, didn't make money. Only ones that made out were the dealers and the manufacturers. Kinda the reason gun sales have hit a dead spot and have been spiraling downward recently is because folks bought so many firearms during the panic. Wasn't just ARs, it was handguns. Now the used market is glutted with LNIB weapons.

While there was a time when I had a hard time finding reloading supplies, I never really ran out. While I now have more inventory when it comes to projectiles, powder and primers than I did 20 years ago, I have not gone overboard, because I have come to the realization, that at times I was part of the problem when it came to the shortages. I also came to realize that the rumors so many spread about the Government conspiracy of buying all the reloading supplies and .22 ammo just to keep it away from us was as real as a zombie apocalypse. Few months went by and shelves are again full. There's wise and then there's just plain stupid. Wise is making sure you have enough to get you thru another shortage or to keep shooting for a period of time. Stupid is buying guns, ammo and reloading supplies in such volume as so your heirs will be selling it for pennies on the dollar at your estate sale. While it's better to have too much than not enough, it's also foolish to buy just to have. I doubt that the climate for guns in our country is going to take a 180 degree turn, even if there is a change in the Whitehouse in 2020. The people have spoken and they have been heard.....for the most part. It is understood by the majority of Americans, that guns in the hands of responsible gun owners is a good thing and there's little we can do to keep guns outta the hands of bad guys. This, even tho gun owners are a minority. I'd wager the only gun control one may see in the next twenty years(and even that is very slight) is mag restrictions to ten rounds as per state statute and mandatory back-ground checks for all gun sales.
 
How do you know that? Any data?

Nope, just my observation, since the price was generally inflated on those guns during the panic buying sprees and afterwards prices went down. I'm sure there are a lot of folks that will claim they made money and some probably did. But there was not the huge profit to be made since the panic didn't last and the ban didn't come. Kinda like folks that go to the casinos. None of them ever lose either.
 
What I saw in the last two panic runs on AR style rifles was folks bought 'em when they didn't really need 'em....or really want one. Kinda why they didn't have one before. They bought 'em just because they thought they might not be able to get one, or they bought 'em to make money, once they were banned.
That's the paradox of gun control. When the antigunners threaten to ban or restrict guns, the main tangible result is that sales spike. Then what you have is a lot of marginal owners with guns that they don't really want or have a use for. These are precisely the situations in which guns might fall into the wrong hands. These gun control efforts almost always make the situation worse, even from the point of view of the antigunners.
 
Kavanaugh will likely be the most pro-Second Amend justice on the Supreme Court. If the Court does take up a case it will be to strike down restrictions not expand them.

When you say "strike down restrictions" are you referring to federal restrictions like CGA , NFA or Brady? Don't anyone get their hopes up there. I think you must be thinking about states restrictions. Constitutionally and historically the states have always had a right to legislate whatever restrictions they deem necessary up to a point of a person being totally restricted. At that point the SC has stopped the restriction but only then.

My take on it is we won't be getting any decisions from the SC that will restrict the state's right to regulate firearms no matter how conservative the SC becomes. That isn't just a firearms issue, it's a states rights issue embedded in the constitution. A SC justice would have to throw out many previous decisions to get to a federal override of states rights to regulation.
 
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No. Right now the trade in value on basic AR-15 is about $200. Good luck.
 
As a few others quickly pointed out, the Supreme Court is not going to ban anything. They cannot. All they can do is either uphold (or passively refuse to hear challenges to) a positive* enactment or strike down such enactments.

* "Positive" in the sense of created by a legislature or administrative agency - does not mean "good."
 
I wouldn't hold my breath on the Supreme Court deciding to override all the state bans that they previously wouldn't take as a case. If they did, I'd bet that reasonable restrictions would be supported by the majority and that would be a great loss. The 4 antigun justices and Roberts would do it.

As far as states rights, that is not really an issue of they were going to overturn state bans. The basic right as established by the Constitution trumps states rights. The precedent is clear in the Federal laws and actions in voting rights, gay marriage, abortion and the like. If it is a right, states shouldn't negate it.
 
Judge Kavanaugh has written in an opinion that you can no more ban certain classes of commonly owned firearms than you can ban certain classes of speech.

The McDonald case makes 2A binding upon the states/cities.

I suspect that we haven't had any Supreme Court 2A cases in the past few years because no faction within the Court was sure of being able to muster a majority. With Kavanaugh and one more appointment, I think we may see the door open to many more cases. Pres. Trump's list of Supreme Court candidates comes straight from the Federalist Society, a legal group dedicated to principles that most of us here hold dear. We are going to keep on liking his appointments, a lot.

You can really wreck your reputation as a forecaster by trying to predict what the Supreme Court will do, but based on the judicial writings I have read, here's what I expect over the next 10-15 years:

Invalidation of all outright bans on semiautomatic rifles, or on just AR15s.

Invalidation of all bans on magazines that hold more than some arbitrary number of cartridges.

Verification that there is a right to keep and bear arms that extends beyond the home (already implicit in Heller). This will strike down the California scheme of banning open carry and almost not allowing concealed carry. It will also strike down schemes in some jurisdictions designed to make it as difficult and expensive as possible to keep and bear firearms.

Establishment of the doctrine that in order to restrict firearms, the state/city must show that the restriction is long established and must be based on solid evidence of overriding state interest.

As I said, I may be wrong. But this is what the tea leaves tell me. None of the constitutional guarantees are iron-clad. They simply mean that if you decide to challenge an unconstitutional law, the table is rigged in your favor.
 
No. Right now the trade in value on basic AR-15 is about $200. Good luck.
Everyone still wants $650 around here for their slightly used sloppy fitting $400AR. I’d stack them up for 2-300 though, but fortunate for my wife I have never seen one of the lower end ar type rifles forsale used for less than new price.
 
Not reason to panic buy, if one is short on supplies obtain now.
Buy cheap, stack deep.
 
Yup. But can you successfully let one sit unbuilt?

Yep. Twelve times over. A completely built one is plenty, two is more than enough. Sales at Brownell's and other stores made lowers too irresistible, and there's a shelf in the safe that's lined up with stripped lowers. Have no desire or intention to build them out. Bought them because the price point was so low I felt it was an easy way to support the industry and that in the worst case scenario I would gift them out. The boy will get a couple when he's old enough. Maybe my nieces if they're into shooting or hunting, but they're more aligned with dressing up as princesses and having tea parties as of yet. But I have no regrets on buying any of them.
 
What's the exact opposite of a buying panic? That's what we'll see if and when the Supreme Court gets around to declaring that AWB's violate the 2nd Amendment. There will be a lot of dumping of stored inventory, and the gun industry as a whole will go into a deep depression. I would expect many companies to go under.
 
Yep. Twelve times over. A completely built one is plenty, two is more than enough. Sales at Brownell's and other stores made lowers too irresistible, and there's a shelf in the safe that's lined up with stripped lowers. Have no desire or intention to build them out. Bought them because the price point was so low I felt it was an easy way to support the industry and that in the worst case scenario I would gift them out. The boy will get a couple when he's old enough. Maybe my nieces if they're into shooting or hunting, but they're more aligned with dressing up as princesses and having tea parties as of yet. But I have no regrets on buying any of them.
They are superb gifts indeed. People look at you funny when your baby opens one at his first birthday though. LGS has them for $50, that’s a good number for whoever you draw at family Christmas if that’s legal in your state.
 
Isn't the best time to panic buy before everyone else panic buys? Figure out what you need before the tsunami of stupid hits, and shop now.

That reminds me; I only have like 2500 rounds of .22 LR. I should take my own advice.

I've learned that it's hard to get in trouble buying firearms and ammunition at reasonable prices. Your money isn't gone. It's just sitting in your gun safe.
 
Yup. But can you successfully let one sit unbuilt?

Yes, but only because I built the last ones and have no more vertical space in my safe.

Isn't the best time to panic buy before everyone else panic buys? Figure out what you need before the tsunami of stupid hits, and shop now.

That reminds me; I only have like 2500 rounds of .22 LR. I should take my own advice.

I've learned that it's hard to get in trouble buying firearms and ammunition at reasonable prices. Your money isn't gone. It's just sitting in your gun safe.
Tsunami of stupid is my favorite phrase of the day.

I have more than 2500 rounds of 22 LR in my car. Better get to it!
 
It's unlikely that a new AWB will be passed in the next 6ish years. It's even less likely that there will be anything brought to the Supreme Court, especially if Kavanaugh is confirmed.

Assuming Trump gets to pick a replacement for RBG, then I don't think there's much of a chance of anything the Supreme Court does kicking off panic buying.
 
The market for AR15 style rifles is unlike anything ever. I’d really love to hear thoughts from someone that’s a stock trader and researches this type of stuff.
 
True but it’s worth thinking about
If one thinks a panic is coming now is a good time to buy a bit more than one normally would. If not, then a continuation of slow and steady stocking up is wise.

Panics most often have no real bases in actual fact.

Consider the Great Banic of 2013. Obama did not do anything to restrict gun ownership but folks went into a buying frenzy anyway.

However, as gun owners, do have a real reason to be concerned about gun restrictions come November 8th, 2018. If the Democrats win the House all hope of gun reform is lost. Worse yet is if the Democrats also win control of the Senate. Will this event set off a Danic? A lot of dirty, hardball politics will be involved in this one.

I hope The Supreme Court does not take up another firearms case until another Conservative is appointed to the bench. There is concern among legal experts, whom I agree with, that Roberts is not a reliable Conservative.

And I will quit commenting now before I get in trouble for posting political comments.
 
Consider the Great Banic of 2013. Obama did not do anything to restrict gun ownership but folks went into a buying frenzy anyway.

Eh, part of the 2013 banic was rational - there was a real chance of a return of the federal AWB. So buying AR's and regular-capacity magazines in the anticipation of the possibility of future restrictions was not irrational. Buying crates of .22lr ammo, however....

The 2008/09 mini-panic was far more conjectural.
 
Panic: A sudden episode of intense fear that triggers severe physical reactions when there is no real danger or apparent cause.

So all we need is someone to react to something that is not there. With the number of irrational people in the world today, it’s almost a certainty that there will be panic buying.

I’ll bet there are still people living “off grid” waiting for the doom of Y2K to finally kick in...
 
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