America's Firearm and Ammo Supply Chain Safe?

In the pawn/gun shop I visited today in West Point MS (east of famous Starkeville) the lady staffer was told that there might be an anxious run on ammo in two weeks.
She clarified nothing about how/where the staff came up with "two weeks" from now. This news among, or To the staff was probably to generate more sales.

Imagine the idea of creating anxiety to promote sales. Was everybody here aware of the craze in late 2008? >>> Much of it was retail-driven <<<.

* This well-known store on state Hwy 45 I visited has Tons of ammo and guns. My purchase was to help a brother who has a limited ammo budget but acquired his first AR.

Any facts about the ammo supply chain (which only the industry can evaluate) - which should remain normal- can matter little. What much of the public Suspects or what makes them anxious is what determines so much of reality.

I thought it was funny when I stopped to get some milk in town today, I would have thought it was a diarrhea virus they had or were expecting.

No kidding, grown adults buying 100’s of rolls of toilet paper. Made me raw thinking about it, at least in relation to my bottom.

The actor Tom Hanks, (and wife) has it and he said “no crying in baseball”, he should have said “stupid is as stupid does” as a better character alignment, with the folks one might come across.

I have a Winchester Model 1400 shotgun I may want to sell, maybe I should start a rumor there’s a shortage of them.

CCI/Speer headquarters/manufacturing is about 50 miles from me and I've known people that work there. I don't know much about their operation, but I do know they make the primers there. Pretty much all primers available locally are CCI. It would be interesting to know where the chemicals involved in the primer-making process are sourced from.

I know there were internet rumors about Obama shutting down the last of the lead smelters in the US and now we have to go to possibly China for our lead, which seems ridiculous. Never really researched it to see if that was true or not.

Trey Veston: That’s so true.

People in general, would rather First spread plausible rumors—as long as they are ..Negative..—than have no “news” at all.

Trey Veston said:

CCI/Speer headquarters/manufacturing is about 50 miles from me and I've known people that work there. I don't know much about their operation, but I do know they make the primers there. Pretty much all primers available locally are CCI. It would be interesting to know where the chemicals involved in the primer-making process are sourced from.

I know there were internet rumors about Obama shutting down the last of the lead smelters in the US and now we have to go to possibly China for our lead, which seems ridiculous. Never really researched it to see if that was true or not.

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Yes, the last one was in Missouri and shut down about 2013. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-lead-smelter-to-shutter-in-ore-rich-missouri

And here is a subsequent story about the wonderful junk bond owner of the mine and smelter shut down in Missouri but operating one now in Peru. https://www.stltoday.com/news/local...cle_134acc06-12e2-5cc2-82eb-238d225b8313.html

The charming owner from story,
"Rennert helped build his fortune in the 1990s through the issuance of junk bonds by Renco Group subsidiaries, leaving those subsidiaries, including Doe Run, with high-interest debt loads.

Starting in 1995, the Post-Dispatch reported in a 2002 investigation, Rennert’s subsidiaries had borrowed $1.1 billion, transferring $322 million of the proceeds to the Renco Group."

Hmmm, doesn't it seem just like what happened to Remington and other firearm companies bought by Cerebrus.

I haven't been to a gun store for over a week, so no idea what stock is like locally. It was fine last time I checked. But this situation is fast-moving. I went in two weeks ago and bought a bulk-pack of TP and some extra canned goods just in case and 3-days later everything was gone locally.

People on other forums were mocking me and a couple of other guys who advised making sure you had a month's worth of food/supplies on hand for a quarantine situation. I also made sure I had all the stuff handy for battling a case of the flu like meds, chicken soup, soda, etc. Those people who were dismissing my being reasonably prepared are now crying that they can't get toilet paper or other supplies now.

Hartkopf said:

This is probably the first time in US history that we have so many different industries controlled by our near/almost/easily could be enemy. Hopefully we can adapt and innovative in a hurry.

Anybody know if any powders are completely made here in the US? Australia is being fondled by China so much that I wouldn’t be surprised if powders from there could be held hostage.

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Alliant's supplying plant--General Dynamics is in Florida. Don't know if they make all of Alliant's powders.

Some powders come from Canada, IMR, I believe. and some from Australia (Varget for one), and some from Europe. Have no idea where Accurate or Western powders get their stuff--some of their stuff did come from Europe.

Trey Veston said:

I haven't been to a gun store for over a week, so no idea what stock is like locally. It was fine last time I checked. But this situation is fast-moving. I went in two weeks ago and bought a bulk-pack of TP and some extra canned goods just in case and 3-days later everything was gone locally.

People on other forums were mocking me and a couple of other guys who advised making sure you had a month's worth of food/supplies on hand for a quarantine situation. I also made sure I had all the stuff handy for battling a case of the flu like meds, chicken soup, soda, etc. Those people who were dismissing my being reasonably prepared are now crying that they can't get toilet paper or other supplies now.

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Yep. You did good and I have had similar issues with other websites as well. Quite a few people believe this is a hoax, it's a panic (well this week it is because people thought it was far away), or it is a conspiracy plot. One guy tonight kept telling me I needed to be in a bunker because I shared the rather horrific math behind epidemics.

ohihunter2014 said:

The supply chain of what? Saw blades and medications. The only supply chain that myself and any other normal American should be worried about is yes, medications but also food. People are getting really stupid around here with buying carts full of soaps, baby wipes, Lysol, paper towels, etc. I know a mother of a baby and she cannot find baby wipes anywhere. What's next, adults wiping their butts with baby diapers? China isn't out to get us, Bloomberg isn't even running anymore so who cares about him. People are losing their freaking minds in Ohio because of crap in the internet like this. Everyone needs to calm down and relax and if they get sick they get sick.

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Not quite, if enough people get sick at the same time, the medical system can't handle it and deaths skyrocket. People that work in the medical field will also get sick. That is what happened in Wuhan and what is happening real time in Italy and perhaps other Euro nations soon.

And yes, China would most happily do us in but right now they depend on us as a customer more than we need them in the long run.

But, that is a perfect example of the O/P supply chain issues. One of China's leading papers argued for cutting off medicine for the US that was made in China and the Chinese government is allowing or seeding their social media with stories that the U.S. Army brought coronavirus to Wuhan. We called in their ambassador today to tell them to can the accusation.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...hina-virus-xinhua-hell-epidemic-a9400811.html
and https://news.yahoo.com/us-summons-chinese-ambassador-over-covid-19-conspiracy-202922988.html

Hartkopf said:

Well I can’t help to go totally off topic and post the lack of meat in one central Texas grocery store. View attachment 899014
Getting ridiculous

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Holy mother of god..... I learned today that several places are starting to count how many people can be in the store at any given time.... lining folks up outside the door. You know once they finally get inside, they're going to treat it like it's potentially the last shopping trip of their life. Gotta clear um out.

BSA1 said:

When were Coronavirus’s 1 - 18? Even some educated folks I know that work in the medical field are getting caught up in the media hype.

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Epidemics are pretty grim when you lack herd immunity, vaccinations, and any proven antivirals to treat it. The reason a lot of folks are cavalier about it is that too much reporting has compared it with flu. It's not. Most--85-90 percent are okay with minor issues. The others have the potential to swamp the medical system if the epidemic goes at too fast a rate. That is why Italy's deaths spiked--they do not have the medical personnel or the beds to treat very sick people. So, they send them home to die based on age, underlying health, etc. Triage is a pretty awful thing where a doc has to decide who gets the scarce ventilator-grandpa or the diabetic mother. Estimates are about 90-150 million Americans will get this disease and the death rate between .6-.7 percent at best (from the cruise ship and South Korea) and 2-3 percent if things go pear shaped like Italy or Wuhan early.

To prevent the same happening in flu, we have herd immunity (caught variants of this season's flu in the past so some antibodies present to fight it) so the flu season is spread out over months, we have vaccinations for it that create some antibodies and immunity to it, and we have antivirals such as Tamiflu etc. to lessen symptoms and prevent complications. In addition, the flu usually kills indirectly by bacterial pneumonia (penicillin can treat this and pneumonia vaccinations can cover common strains). Covid 19 directly attacks the lungs in severe cases and damages the lungs themselves--in severe cases, the patients can no longer breathe by themselves are require a ventilator for weeks to recover.

This guy has a good summary why the 85 -90 percent of Americans that won't get a bad case should put up with minor inconveniences for a couple of months. It is about 13 pages of charts and graphs and you can simply check his predictions on infections, deaths, and recoveries in about a week.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Listen to boom boom. He did his research.

First, they horded the TP, I said nothing
Then they came after the Kleenex. Againe, I said nothing
Then came for the paper towels which didn't apply to me so, I said nothing
Readers digest...Guns&Ammo magazine...NRA Hunter...then...

...no one could bring me anything, when I yelled out from the bathroom...


Oh...the horror...

Went to local Cabela's..NO 9mm ammo of any kind..very little 223/556...went online and ordered some Federal 9mm..from Cabela's..free ship..on the way..

I would say that with the virus thing and this being an election year we're going to see some significant ammo shortages again. I hope people learned their lesson the last time.

I was sick about a month ago. It wasn’t a cold and didn’t feel like the normal flu. I think it was a very good chance it was the Coron19. I did not go to the Doctor and treated myself with over the counter meds. I have also had a Flu shot in October (which I don’t believe in but I am required to get every year). The City of Wichita and Sedgwick County banned public gatherings of more than 250 people forcing a Gun Show and St. Paddys Day Parade to be cancelled. I assume this also applies to Churches. This could force all Spring and maybe Summer Gun Shows to be banned.

Meanwhile the bars are full and the booze is flowing.

As Forrest Gump said: I am sorry I broke up your Coronavirus 19 party.

First , I'll join in on the inevitable tangent from the OP question - a young family member in this house was sick recently , lots of respiratory symptoms , lasted about 9 days. Seemed too long for a "regular" flu. Took all reasonable "containment" measures. Now recovered. Was it THE virus? Maybe. I got my first flu shot in several years this year - had to do it as a condition of doing volunteer ministerial work at the local hospital. Moot point now , as all volunteer staff ordered off premises.

Now as to the OP question - it is reasonable to expect a supply interruption of lots of goods , shooting supplies included. We gun folk tend to get cautious in times of social/political instability ; that tendency will no doubt affect retail supply. Added to that will be the impact of production workers taking time off because kids are home from school or just out of fear and apprehension.

In the last ammo crunch I decided to avoid getting caught with my pants down in the future. I'm not going to run out of guns - they don't wear out very fast and I still have my marbles so I don't outright lose any. AS to ammunition ; if the shelves were to empty out and stay that way for several years I'd have to ration myself. If the supply remains available I am prepared for my later retirement years when my regular income zeros out.

Interrupted supply chain? To at least some degree , almost certainly , yes. Will we ride it out? Of course. The more fear driven the public becomes , the more impact to production and retail buying/supply there will be.

Seems to me that the sheep are stampeding off the cliff. Expect the worst - hope for the best.

I think this would be an excellent time to take that hunting or fishing vacation that you’ve always wanted. Airline tickets are dirt cheap. You’re not likely to get this virus while fly fishing for rainbow trout or hunting for elk.

I feel sorry for that single mother or family that is just getting by from paycheck to paycheck. Next week what is in store for them. Money to get stuff and no stuff on the shelves? Local schools here shut down at least 3 weeks and statewide ban on anything over 250 at any given time. Will this help? I hope so.
After last time I am all set on ammo thank you. We regularly have snow events, enough so that we need to keep a couple weeks of "stuff" on hand so I just build up food and such in the fall and use them up in the warmer months.
There are several sources of propellant and other reloading stuff coupled with this not being a 6 year problem so lets hope cooler heads prevail and we weather this more gracefully this time around. I worry about those out of work with time on their hands individuals looking for "any free stuff" we might have stored at home than anything else.

Yeah, but the plane ride and airport kills you.

This is a diversion but we cannot fight a war anymore that lasts more than a few days against a near peer adversary. I was watching a show about Pearl Harbor and how Yamamoto thought fighting us was stupid given our industrial capacity. Churchill after Pearl Harbor thought the war was won given our industrial capacity.

That no longer exists. We cannot produce ships, planes, medical supplies, electronics, etc. in any sufficient numbers.

Maybe that's a good thing and as Jeff says (I hope I don't misinterpret him) no more wars to save the world unless it has a existential component to us. If the Philippines have to be a vassal of China - do we care? Those carriers sailing around off China and in the Pacific are being more and more a burdern as compared to a threat to them. We couldn't replace them if we tried in anything like real time.

Back to ammo - there was quite a bit of FMJ around here. So do we change our mantra of no FMJ or is it ok to use in in the Apocalypse? Will it hurt you in court - oh, wait, no courts - catch the virus.

GEM said:

Yeah, but the plane ride and airport kills you.

This is a diversion but we cannot fight a war anymore that lasts more than a few days against a near peer adversary. I was watching a show about Pearl Harbor and how Yamamoto thought fighting us was stupid given our industrial capacity. Churchill after Pearl Harbor thought the war was won given our industrial capacity.

That no longer exists. We cannot produce ships, planes, medical supplies, electronics, etc. in any sufficient numbers.

Maybe that's a good thing and as Jeff says (I hope I don't misinterpret him) no more wars to save the world unless it has a existential component to us. If the Philippines have to be a vassal of China - do we care? Those carriers sailing around off China and in the Pacific are being more and more a burdern as compared to a threat to them. We couldn't replace them if we tried in anything like real time.

Back to ammo - there was quite a bit of FMJ around here. So do we change our mantra of no FMJ or is it ok to use in in the Apocalypse? Will it hurt you in court - oh, wait, no courts - catch the virus.

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I've always been a ln advocate of isolationism and *moderate* imperialism. Stay on YOUR land, build your defensive capability so no one can touch you. If we actually had all the industry we've given to China, this wouldn't be an issue. We could just close all borders and imports until it passed over. But no... Big Wig Money Grubber sitting in his golden tower has to be even more greedy. Bah.

I think there's 2 powder Mills here not sure on percentage produced compared to imported powder.
I remember a shortage I think it was the gulf war when they were filling military contracts components started getting scarce.