Over heard at a local gun range.

I do wonder how much ammo goes unused. I imagine estate sales are a good indicator.

A lot of people who stock ammo never shoot. I’ve known old men with dozens of NIB guns that they will never fire.

I do think there is some phycological factor in hoarding ammo. It is like a squirrel who hoards nuts for the next 3 seasons when his life expectancy is 1.5 years. It “feels good” to be stocked up.

I'd probably pay 55.00 a pound for unique right now. Last time I seen it on a shelf it was 70.00. That was past my limit.

Well for years on this site and everywhere else the true saying goes buy cheap, stack deep. people that didn't do that, well they're out of luck. It's not going to happen anymore or anytime soon.
And if you were fortunate enough to reload and buy components when they were cheap my hats off to you because that's what I did. Because now reloading is phenomenally expensive. So I'm set for life with loaded ammunition and reloading. It's sad that new shooters aren't going to be able to get into this and shoot a lot unless they've got lots of money

Caplock said:

I'd probably pay 55.00 a pound for unique right now. Last time I seen it on a shelf it was 70.00. That was past my limit.

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Man that is crazy. The last time I paid for unique it was in the early 2000s and I paid $23 a pound. I stocked up with so much powder, primers and that you would think I was loading for the IRS for the postal service
I'm set for life for reloading and all that ,which makes me happy because everything I bought back then was cheap and it doesn't go bad if you take care of it. Hell primers I was paying $24 a thousand for any type of Winchester primer

the only thAt has not gone up is free air

How about the great toilet paper shortage on 2022! Lol

castile said:

Paper money is getting more worthless every day. Gold, Silver, Guns and ammo and other tangible valuables are a better place to put your money than investing in the paper fiat currency that is going to eventually be hyper infated out of existance.

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This statement is a mixed bag. Certainly, the value of the US dollar is declining, however, I no longer see silver or guns & ammo as a way to offset this. If you look at an historical price index of silver, it hasn't climbed much in the past 100 years. $15 in 1915; $24 today. If you look at just the government-supplied CPI numbers, the purchasing power of $15 in cash from 1915 to today is $465, so that 109-yr investment in silver only made a $9 return, which didn't even keep up with inflation. For silver to be any kind of investment at all, it would have to be about $465/oz today. It actually lost a lot of value when compared to inflation. That isn't even accounting for the premium one has to pay to take delivery of physical silver. (Silver has other value and utility that we can't get into here.)

Regarding the price of guns and ammo, I don't see guns as any kind of investment, either. I bought a pretty nice hunting rifle in 1991 for $300. (probably a week's worth of labor at the time.) In inflation adjusted dollars today, that is around $689. That same rifle, today, is around $700. An $11 return on a 33-yr investment isn't much of an investment. Not to mention, one has to find a buyer for that gun and negotiate a price.

But, trying to keep this within THR incredibly narrow focus area, I would agree that ammo is probably the outlier. Ammo prices are definitely accelerating well ahead of inflation. Whatever one can buy now, one should buy now. It has wide range of utility, meaning you can always sell it later in the event you don't use it. On that note, I stopped loading up ammo ahead of use. IF...*when*...something happens to me, my family can sell sealed packages of reloading components a lot easier than my reloads. So, here, I think factory loaded and packaged ammo is a better buy-doubly so now that reloading prices have exploded.

As usual these things happen right after I sell a bunch of something. Last fall I bought the estate of an older gun owner who passed away, and he must have been a trap or skeet shooter as he had 306 boxes of #8 12 ga. shotshells! I bought all of them at the asking price of $2 a box, and sold them to friends and family at $3 a box quickly. I have plenty myself, so didn't need any to keep.
If there's a shortage coming it's probably because I sold those cheap, and now they'd be worth a lot more!

mm93 said:

As usual these things happen right after I sell a bunch of something. Last fall I bought the estate of an older gun owner who passed away, and he must have been a trap or skeet shooter as he had 306 boxes of #8 12 ga. shotshells! I bought all of them at the asking price of $2 a box, and sold them to friends and family at $3 a box quickly. I have plenty myself, so didn't need any to keep.
If there's a shortage coming it's probably because I sold those cheap, and now they'd be worth a lot more!

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As with all commodities, there is a difference between speculcating-trying to make a quick buck, and investing-trying to build log term wealth. You got a 50% return on your investment in a short time? You did good. Take that money and reinvest it elsewhere. I would jump at a chance to turn $600 into $900.

D.B. Cooper said:

The very definition of "shortage" is not enough supply to meet demand. What you refer to as "panic buying" is simply a temporary increase in demand that outstrips the available supply.

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But the only reason people were buying was fear of it being out of stock on their next visit. Panic buying was the only reason they were buying. Every single person I know who shoots had more .22 ammo in 2016, when the "shortage" ended, than they did in 2012. Most had 10X more than they ever had before. In 2013 & 2014 they'd pay $100 per brick, but the same people weren't willing to pay $20 per brick in 2012 or 2018.

I like to think (hope is more correct) that I have enough laid back to continue on as I have been. The 2020 mess really put a hamper on my shooting, because I couldn't affordably replace what I shot, so I wound up just setting on what I consider to be a fairly good-sized stock of ammo and components. From 2020 to present, I shot very, very little; less than 500 rounds in a year between long guns, handguns, center and rimfires. Pre-2020 I'd fire 500 rounds of 22 in a day's plinking, and running through a couple hundred rounds of 9mm, 38 spl, or 45 acp was a fairly normal month's shooting fare, and probably another 500 rounds/yr of centerfire rifle ammo.

But those were the days of dirt-cheap ammo, and those days aren't coming back regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. My wife has recently gotten interested in shooting so we added another handgun to our collection for her, a compact 9mm, along with a Winchester M12 20 gauge and her current Rossi 92 357. I also picked up another 1911 45 to replace one I'd sold in 2021, and just today snagged a Husqvarna hammer 16 gauge. What that means to this thread is, we're going to pick up some ammo and accessories this weekend. Prior to the Recent Unpleasantness, I'd have bought a case of each, and at least 5000 rounds of rimfire. Unfortunately, we won't be "stacking it deep" given the local price of ammo; more likely a box or two of each pistol caliber and possibly a couple bricks of 22lr and/or a few boxes of 20 gauge, and maybe not even that depending on the price at the LGS's we like to frequent. I'm thankful that I have enough powder and primers to keep the hunting rifles and her 357 fed.

All that rambling mess to say, everybody has to pay his penny and take his chance. I'm hoping things will look up after this winter, but I'm trying to be somewhat proactive in case they don't.

Mac

reddog81 said:

But the only reason people were buying was fear of it being out of stock on their next visit. Panic buying was the only reason they were buying. Every single person I know who shoots had more .22 ammo in 2016, when the "shortage" ended, than they did in 2012. Most had 10X more than they ever had before. In 2013 & 2014 they'd pay $100 per brick, but the same people weren't willing to pay $20 per brick in 2012 or 2018.

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The free market doesn't care about the why. You obviously disagree with the motives, but that doesn't invalidate those motives. Certainly, people are buying more than they need (more than they are shooting), so that they appear to have their own, personal surplus, but that's better than being out of ammo.

As to why people were unwilling to pay $20/brick in 2012, prices convey information about relative scarcity and value. When the shelves were full of bricks at $20 ea, that price conveyed a message that ammo was plentiful and future purchase would be easy, so there was no need to buy more than what was immediately needed. When ammo hit $100/brick, that price conveyed a message that ammo was scarce and might not be available or as affordable in the future, which motivated people to buy, which also drives up the price until it gets so obscene that no one will buy any.

I have never been a panic buyer or a hoarder. I have just always bought what I needed or wanted whenever it was available and I had money to spare. Usually I bought at least a little more than necessary. As a result of this now have adequate supplies of everything I need for many years. I never made any concentrated effort to accumulate. It just happened gradually.

rust collector said:

I have gotten a bit more careful about the origin of such information.

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Always a wise and prudent strategy.

rust collector said:

It is only when the self-fulfilling prophesy stops self-fulfilling that the show is over and the prices are adjusted accordingly.

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You're asking people to go against their instinct and to do exactly the opposite of what is in their own best interest. That's a tall glass to fill. It's difficult to see it that way, I know, but imagine applying your argument to food. You see food disappearing off of shelves at an alarming rate. Pricing for food that is still on the shelf is increasing by the day. The grocers tell you they don't know when the next delivery will be. Everyone around you is buying up all that is left. You have a family at home. Are you really going to not buy more food than you would have otherwise? If your answer is yes, then I refer you to my earlier comment.

D.B. Cooper said:

The prudent man sees the danger and hides; the fool carries on, and is punished.

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If your answer is no, then you must acknowledge that what is happening is real and that those who are buying more than they otherwise would have are being prudent and acting in their own self interest.

castile said:

First off I trust the Remington Rep more than any arm chair warrior. Don't stock up. Thats on you. I have stocked over 50k in just 22lr. When I was going to the range in 2013-15 and few people were there because they could not source or afford to buy ammo. Good luck with that.

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Ha ha, I’ve seen the same suckers run after the same lines since the early 80s at least. Don’t think, just run up your credit cards because a salesman told you a story. Well, even Hank Hill fell for Tom Hammond’s lies so it could happen to anyone. How can you tell when they keep using the same story every year?

castile said:

Logic and critical thinking is just not something instilled in the youth today or the last couple of generations. I bought gold when it was 435 an oz and silver in the 4 bucks an oz range. Right now all you can do is buy the dips. As the dumbocraps keep lighting their cities on fire by releasing criminals and or not prosecuting them, even hard core dumbos are buying guns and ammo. I don't see anything but higher prices for now and the near future. I just bought 16 guns from a lady whos husband died. I got them really cheap. I will be selling them next big spike.

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Now we can see why you’re repeating this fish tale. Ripping off widows!

If everybody kept a little safety stock (including the government) this wouldn't happen.

Every time a hurricane comes the gas stations run out. Everybody that uses $10 of gas every week and drives around with an empty tank shows up at the gas station on the same day. Just as easy to keep a full tank as an empty tank.

Same thing with groceries. The authorities say you need 3 days of food for a storm and the shelves empty out? Do these people go to the grocery store and buy a day's worth of food every day? I can't imagine anyone not having a week's worth of food on hand.

Ammunition shouldn't be any different. It lasts for decades. Easy to keep plenty of it on hand.

Maybe the local yokel "ammo flippers" who always lined up at our Academy during 2020's Covid are buying lots of shotgun ammo (even online) waiting for a spike?

RayRoy said:

Now we can see why you’re repeating this fish tale. Ripping off widows!

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This happens all the time. Most of these are old guys who knew the end was coming. If you stick your family with a bunch of stuff you think is valuable and you don't take care of it before you pass, that's really all on you. Your widow isn't going to get ripped off- she's going to get rid of your stuff and hopefully move on.

jmorris said:

.410's been scarce around here since covid hit the news, prices on everything went nuts when the free cash was sent out across the Country. Even the $1 value meals are $12 these days...

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Great tip! I am going to start hoarding Happy Meals!

If I were to suddenly die or become very incapacitated- my wife would basically give away my rifles plus ‘multiple’ thousands of rounds of centerfire ammo.

No way would she even consider trying to figure out Gunbroker or haul the guns to be ripped off by a gun store.
She barely has the strength.

A friend was given a basically mint (1970’s) Remington .308 with a beautiful Vortex scope. Given by the widow of a former coworker.