Over heard at a local gun range.

[dartor]

This horse has been beaten to death on a weekly basis for at least a year......

100 posts @Walkalong,,,,,PLEASE SHUT IT DOWN.....

 

[Mars5l]

A small LGS. Just a single guy there, the owner. He's always going on and on about the powder shortage upcoming and how ammo for is already going up in price. Last month he was telling regular WWB 5.56 is already $22 a box his cost. I think he just has a crappy distributor or a crappy pay scale.

 

[D.B. Cooper]

This horse has been beaten to death on a weekly basis for at least a year......

Agreed, but It is obviously an important topic to a lot of people who want to discuss it.

100 posts @Walkalong,,,,,PLEASE SHUT IT DOWN.....

Because nothing says freedom like censorship. God Bless America.

 

[D.B. Cooper]

He's always going on and on about the powder shortage upcoming...

Upcoming? He is about 5+ years late to the party.

 

[KY DAN]

Go to the range and shoot it?

I agree with this and that is what I try my best to do.

I feel within the parameters of the OP post the people who flock to the stores and buy for the most part do not practice at the range and imstread simply treat their purchases as magical talismans of protection from an ambiguous spirit of evil and harm.

 

[dartor]

We all know where we stand on our supply of ammo and reloading components. We also know that prices will not be going down. Either stock up or don't. Complaining and speculating won't change a thing.

 

[JohnKSa]

Yeah ya lost me there.

You and a lot of others. Which is exactly why we have these panics on a fairly regular basis.

It is, however, not a temporary market. This surge will subside, but it will surge again, probably within a year. As I stated earlier, we still haven't recovered from the last shortage. Indeed, my area has been in a perpetual state of ammo shortage since at least 2020, and we really weren't over the shortage caused by the 2016 election, and honestly, even in 2016-2020 we were still being impacted by the 2008-2016 years. (which were at least as bad as the 2020 episode) So this isn't temporary; this is a permanent and perpetual state of the market.

I do agree with you in terms of the fact that we are seeing frequent panics, but the bottom line is that when there's money to be made with reasonable risk, you can be sure the market will insure that someone steps in to make that money. Ammo companies are in business to sell people ammo. If they think they can sell more ammo, they will make more ammo. If they think they can sell more ammo and make more money if they build larger facilities then they will build larger facilities. Are we supposed to believe that all the ammo makers are thinking. "Well, I could make more money with reasonable risk, but why would I want to do that?" Obviously that makes no sense.

Which means that the makers believe there is too much risk (the demand surges aren't reliable enough to bet a business on) or that there's just not as much demand overall as you think there is. It's one thing for you to say: "But there will be another panic soon--just expand your facilities and hire more workers." when it's someone else's money and someone else's risk. It's another thing entirely to make that decision when it could result in losing your job, your income, and costing others their jobs.

Also, in this day and age, a person's area shouldn't really have anything to do with it. Buy online in bulk and even with shipping you can minimize your costs and never have to rely on what the local businesses have in stock.

On its face, your idea has plenty of merit. In practice, I feel it just falls short. Even when I have ammo on hand, I still buy ammo whenever it's available, because I know...I just know that sometime soon it will not be available. Think of it as a vote of no confidence in the ammo manufacturers' ability to keep up with demand.

It falls short because so few people follow it.

As far as your practice, buying ammo when you can makes sense, as long as you don't buy at a demand peak when it's costing you a lot of money and perpetuating a panic shortage situation. Buy in bulk when the price is low and keep a stock on hand all the time. Ammo is compact and it keeps very well if it's stored properly. And don't worry about the ammo makers. They will keep up with demand overall, but they absolutely aren't going to and can't manage their businesses so that they can instantly cancel out every panic buying shortage with huge amounts of reserve production capacity that just sits idle for the rest of the time. They have to be efficient and that means that it's pretty easy for a panic to clear the shelves and then keep them clear for awhile. And though it may seem like a long time to the buyers, to the ammo makers, a long time is how long the loans on the additional equipment and facilities will take to pay off if demand falls back to normal levels.

 

[Mostly Lead]

A small LGS. Just a single guy there, the owner. He's always going on and on about the powder shortage upcoming and how ammo for is already going up in price. Last month he was telling regular WWB 5.56 is already $22 a box his cost. I think he just has a crappy distributor or a crappy pay scale.

An LGS has no buying power to leverage, no volume. Maybe a pallet here or there, but not a weekly truck load like a national chain could...

 

[D.B. Cooper]

the people who flock to the stores and buy for the most part do not practice at the range and imstread simply treat their purchases as magical talismans of protection from an ambiguous spirit of evil and harm.

That might be the single most poetic thing ever written on this forum.

 

[Ignition Override]

My son would not know enough about my guns as he had too few chances shooting to get the gun bug.

But he could post note cards at my private gun club’s bulletin board to avoid being “shafted” by gun stores who must be able to buy very Low, then resell to make a profit .

 

[The Night Rider]

Did anyone else just hear the sound a record makes when you drag the needle all the way across it?

My wife just informed me that she purchased another case of range ammunition the other day.

I thought you'd like to know

 

[Mk-211]

My wife just informed me that she purchased another case of range ammunition the other day.

I thought you'd like to know

I thought your post was funny when you said that your wife started buying more ammo.

The fact that D.B. brought up the whole record screeching, made it even funnier.

My wife has to go over tomorrow to start the whole 10 day waiting game. She told me I could come with her if I was home. If not, I could see the gun when she picks it up.

 

[The Night Rider]

FWIW my order arrived yesterday. It was a case of Winchester White Box for $300.

My wife can Pinch A Penny so hard you'll hear Abraham Lincoln scream. So, I'm positive that's the lowest price she could find it for.

the cool thing is it SG Ammo sent it to us in an ammo canister. Which is always a handy thing to have.

I also like the fact that it came in a plain brown box and the return address was Sam Gebhart and whatever the address is for SG Ammo.

The last ammunition (Not from SG Ammo) that we bought UPS dropped it on our door step in the factory box that said Winchester self defense ammunition.

Nor discreet at all

 

[Creaky_Old_Cop]

I have 32lbs of Clays, and about the same in Tite Group and about 40k small pistol primers, and 10k large pistol primers. I bought the primers before the last hurrah when S&B were selling them for $20/1000. I got in on a couple of good group buys for the powder.

I cast my own projectiles for match shooting and training. I'm in overall good shape in 5.56 and 7.62 so, I can weather out the next "doomsday" ammo shortage. The only thing I am not in decent shape on is percussion caps for my charcoal burners. I only have about 500 of those, but then again, I won't shoot them all up before I die anyway, and if the time comes when I am using .44 Colt 1860 Army replica revos for self defense, I am dead already.

My neo-conspiracy theorist nature leads me to think some of the manufacturers create a "shortage" around panic election time to drive sales and profit. Palmetto and AIM usually have decent sale prices on bulk ammo, so I order from them a couple of times a month when they have a sale.

It's amazing how much disposable income you discover you have when your kids are grown and you get rid of your wife.

 

[D.B. Cooper]

Three years ago today. The line to buy ammo at my local Cabela's went all the way through the store, out the door and into the parking lot. You were only allowed to buy one box. But there's nothing to see here, move along. Ammo shortages aren't real.

 

[earlthegoat2]

Three years ago today. The line to buy ammo at my local Cabela's went all the way through the store, out the door and into the parking lot. You were only allowed to buy one box. But there's nothing to see here, move along. Ammo shortages aren't real.

Though I accept the reality you are laying out here for us and I agree that there is and has been a general lack of availability of ammo since 2008, the fact is, I never had to experience a line like that to buy ammo.

That is because I bought my ammo during times when it was available and in less demand and likely less expensive.

There is little arcane knowledge to predicting the good times to buy ammo.

Insider hint: One of those good times is right now and one of the bad times will be this upcoming November.

Plan wisely.

 

[JohnKSa]

Ammo shortages aren't real.

Of course they are real. There's no question that they exist and that they cause a lot of problems, inconvenience, price hikes, etc.

The issue is that they are almost always caused by demand spikes caused by panic-buying (due to rumors, negative news, adverse current events, etc.), and only rarely due to actual supply issues.

Then once they are started, they tend to self-perpetuate. Even the legitimate ones that start due to supply issues generally transition into panic-buying when the shelves start to clear and people start having issues finding ammo. Once consumers start buying at levels significantly beyond normal demand, the nature of the ammunition manufacturing and supply chain makes it hard for the supply to recover.

 

[The Night Rider]

I bought my first handgun in 1995. During the Clinton AWB. That was all I knew so it didn't seem odd to me. But I don't remember ever having any difficulty purchasing ammunition and I don't think I ever had a problem purchasing "pre-ban" magazines.

The first hand gun I ever bought was a Smith & Wesson model 915 and I remember it came with 1 15 round magazine and one 10 round magazine. I didn't understand why it was two different magazines because I didn't know any better.

By the time Obama was elected I had learned a little. I remember going to a gun show the week after Obama was elected. There was a line out the door. People wanted any gun they could get their hands on because they were convinced that Obama was going to ban them all.

I remember that lasting for the entirity of his term.

I remember reading articles in the American Rifleman how the Big 3 ammunition manufacturers were running three shifts 24/7 at all their facilities and they could not keep up with demand.

I remember reading an article I think in "Popular Mechanics" that detailed the specific supply issues all the big AR manufacturers we're having and why they couldn't keep up with demand. One manufacturer couldn't get bolt carrier groups another one couldn't get stocks. I don't remember the rest of the details.

My point is that be it a panic shortage or otherwise an artificially created shortage it still lasted for 8 years.

I don't think it's unreasonable to factor that into my planning

 

[D.B. Cooper]

There is little arcane knowledge to predicting the good times to buy ammo.

Insider hint: One of those good times is right now and one of the bad times will be this upcoming November.

Plan wisely.

Amen.

The issue is that they are almost always caused by demand spikes caused by panic-buying (due to rumors, negative news, adverse current events, etc.), and only rarely due to actual supply issues.

I will concede that the image I posted above was taken the morning after an employee posted the night prior on social media that they had received a truck shipment of ammo. But that was the first shipment in weeks or months. I don't know how that isn't supply related.

I think wher you and I are talking past one another is that I see the current demand as the new normal. What we are experiencing is the "normal demand curve" for ammo. Thus, manufacturers' inability to keep shelves stocked is a supply side problem. In my view, the reason for this new normal is irrelevant.

Then once they are started, they tend to self-perpetuate.

This has been "self perpetuating" for over a sixteen plus years. This is the new normal. It is absolutely foolish for anyone serious shooting enthusiast to not buy ammo when it is available.

Once consumers start buying at levels significantly beyond normal demand, the nature of the ammunition manufacturing and supply chain makes it hard for the supply to recover.

Again, this is normal, but I agree, there is no way the manufacturers can recover supply without significant investment in infrastructure-which, I think we're all agreed, they absolutely will not do.

My point is that be it a panic shortage or otherwise an artificially created shortage it still lasted for 8 years.

I don't think it's unreasonable to factor that into my planning

That's what I've been saying for years now.

 

[The Night Rider]

I'm about to poke the bear.

If memory serves (at my age that's a big if) the Obama shortages started to ease up about halfway through his second term.

That's approximately when I restructured my gun accumulation and started concentrating on laying in a supply of ammunition and accessories.

I have more (pre Colorado ban) magazines than I will ever wear out. When I got there I started concentrating strictly on ammunition.

My point is that I had at least 8 years (God only gave Joseph 7) to get ready for the famine.

Every Single One Of You reading this had the same 8 years.

It's not mine nor the fault of anyone else who put the time to good use that you chose not to.

 

[Armybrat]

Three years ago today. The line to buy ammo at my local Cabela's went all the way through the store, out the door and into the parking lot. You were only allowed to buy one box. But there's nothing to see here, move along. Ammo shortages aren't real.

Looks kinda like one of those flash mobs swarming a San Francisco department store.

 

[JTHunter]

My wife can Pinch A Penny so hard you'll hear Abraham Lincoln scream.

Both mother and her mother were the types that wouldn't let go of that penny until it had been rubbed smooth on both sides. Grandmother survived WW1, the "Spanish flu" of 1917-18, the Depression of '29, and BOTH survived WW2, Korea, Vietnam, etc.

Both taught me well.

 

[Appalachiannative]

My local range is shut down for updating. I was at a local indoor range/gun shop. The Rep for Remington was there and I heard him tell one of the employees that they seemed to have a lot of shot gun ammo. He said if I were you I would put some away and wait a bit. There is a world wide shortage of powder. He said that the price for shot gun ammo is going to spike due to a coming shortage. This was as I was leaving the range and looking at their stock. I did a quick search on line and found that others are saying this same thing. So I believe its so. I bought a case of 00 Buck. For the what its worth dept.

All the more reason to load your own shells like I do. Haven't bought any assembled shotgun ammo in a year I bet

 

[JTHunter]

I'm about to poke the bear.

If memory serves (at my age that's a big if) the Obama shortages started to ease up about halfway through his second term.

That's approximately when I restructured my gun accumulation and started concentrating on laying in a supply of ammunition and accessories.

I have more (pre Colorado ban) magazines than I will ever wear out. When I got there I started concentrating strictly on ammunition.

My point is that I had at least 8 years (God only gave Joseph 7) to get ready for the famine.

Every Single One Of You reading this had the same 8 years.

It's not mine nor the fault of anyone else who put the time to good use that you chose not to.

It wasn't until the "Trump years" that I was able to stock up well (for me). First a Gander Mt. opened in this area with a LOT of reasonable prices on the .22LR & Mag I wanted most, even if it was "bulk" ammo (Win., Rem., & Fed.). About 3 years later, GM was going out of business and an Academy store opened up with similar good deals. The problem I have is no "affordable" access to ANY kind of range, indoors or out. And I don't shoot enough to need to reload that much. And, while I can reload for 4 of the calibers I own (.380, .38 Sp./.357, & .243), I don't shoot any of them nearly as much as I would like to because of that lack.

 

[JohnKSa]

My point is that be it a panic shortage or otherwise an artificially created shortage it still lasted for 8 years.

There have been some shortages that lasted a long time--years even, but not 8 years. At least not by any reasonable definition of shortage.

I see the current demand as the new normal. What we are experiencing is the "normal demand curve" for ammo.

You'll know when it's the new normal with enough certainty when you see that the ammo manufactures are willing to make permanent upgrades (at great expense) to meet it.

This has been "self perpetuating" for over a sixteen plus years.

There have been frequent ammo shortages (almost all panic-driven demand surges) for quite a long time now, but in between, there have usually been periods where supply has recovered and prices have fallen. If you mean that panic-buying demand surges are going to be with us forever, I agree. If you mean that they are actually changing the overall demand level for ammo in a way that makes sense for the industry to try to compensate for, then that's another story. There have been some changes/expansions in the ammo industry, but they are NEVER going to be enough to be able to level out these panic-buying surges. It's just not possible or financially feasible. We are going to have to live with that. There's simply no reasonable business model that would allow ammo makers to provide reasonably priced ammunition and maintain manufacturing/production/supply chain reserves sufficient to cancel out a panic-based shortage.

It's up to consumers to make the best of it and the only way we can really make a difference is to:

1. Buy in bulk when prices are low and keep a large stock on hand so we don't have to contribute to the panics.
2. Convince as many people as possible that these panics are temporary and its important not to get carried away and contribute to perpetuating the panics.
3. Avoid starting and spreading rumors that start and perpetuate panics.