Ammo prices and availability predictions?

[DustyGmt]

I know we've seen a few "ammo" threads but I was wondering, for those who work in sales, or those that can make an estimate, when do you think prices will go back down and availability will go back up?

Whether it's politically driven from elections, media driven from shootings, alarm caused by C-19 or any other panic related shortage, why do prices skyrocket to 2×/3×. I know the simple answer is supply is low and demand is high, it just surprises me that we dont have manufacturers with the capacity to keep the whole country drowning in ammo even with high demand.

When researching this kind of stuff I find conflicting info, like when the pressure isnt on and nobody is out panic buying the prices have to go up to compensate for the loss but I have found the opposite to be true. During these last few trump years ammo has been very very low. During the Obama years it was very very high, about like we are seeing now.

I'm just curious if any of you have any estimates about when it might come back down again, this summer? winter? After elections?

 

[Trey Veston]

I don't know. Ever since Walmart stopped selling pistol ammo, I haven't seen 9mm locally for under $12.99 a box. Combine them going commie and the lack of local retailers, ammo is something I have to make myself for the most part, now.

Maybe there will be a reprieve before the election, but if Trump looks weak for re-election, then prices and availability will remain at current levels. If the dems stick with Biden, then things may ease up. If they run a moderate that doesn't drool on himself, then all bets are off.

I've decided to keep range sessions to a minimum and won't dip into my stock unless I can find components to replace it easily.

 

[JONWILL]

I personally think it will drop back down again in a few months. People were panic buying for 2 reasons.

1) The resellers hoping to make a killing selling it to people who can't find any to buy. Most people I see are buying just a box or two. Not many people are buying a case. This is local not internet purchases

2) Most people will buy a box for a gun they just bought. Most guns sold will probably never have a box of 50 ever shot through them.

 

[FFGColorado]

I know the simple answer is supply is low and demand is high, it just surprises me that we don't have manufacturers with the capacity to keep the whole country drowning in ammo even with high demand.

WE still do..This, like a lot of food and TP, is a distribution problem, not supply problem. Most ammo places predict sales and have appropriate inventory..Excess inventory costs money, turnover rate, for a particular business is key..cuz it equals cash flow. Lots of inventory is 'money on the hoof', when actual $ are needed.
This panic buying has upset most ammo places with a MUCH higher demand and empty shelves a result. BUT, ammo is a durable item, not many raging gun battles for your TP has happened 'yet', so demand will subside and inventory will catch up. Eventually.

It shud be noted, in some states that have 'lockdown orders', gun stores are allowed to stay open. CO being one of them.

 

[Waveski]

"

it just surprises me that we dont have manufacturers with the capacity to keep the whole country drowning in ammo even with high demand.

To do so would keep the market flooded and prices depressed. Lousy marketing practice , if staying in business is the goal.

when do you think prices will go back down and availability will go back up?

The longer we allow worry and speculation to drive our buying decisions the longer shortages will last.

"I know we've seen a few "ammo" threads but..."

Yes we have. This one worries me so much I think I'll run out and buy some overpriced ammunition.

 

[Deleon517]

If looking locally it all depends on how many stores are accessible. My brother lives in an area of NY where they have one LGS for the entire county. Said everything is gone so I sent him an ammo care package. Thankfully he has a place to be mailed outside of the state. Here we have everything from big chains like bass pro, small mom and pop shops and high-end custom places. For the most part the first two have been picked clean, one of the high end places about 20 minutes from me sent out an email the other day, that they still have ammo but have capped purchasing to 5 boxes per caliber. They also mentioned they are out of all stock handguns but do still have a good inventory of upgraded handguns mainly glocks with optics and the sorts.

I'm not surprised that they still have some stock as they are pricier than pretty much anyone else but also have one of the nicest ranges with paper and digital target shooting lanes

 

[Axis II]

We had a local shop say they declined to buy any 9mm range ammo because their supplier upped the price to $16.99 box and they couldn't fathom charging customers that or more so they declined the shipment.

 

[DustyGmt]

"


To do so would keep the market flooded and prices depressed. Lousy marketing practice , if staying in business is the goal.

I'm not in a hysterics over the ammo situation, I have seen these panic cycles at least a half dozen times, I pretty much know what to expect. I invite speculation (2nd week of not leaving house), I was just wondering why retailers wouldnt be better off keeping prices low, moving more volume because alot of people wont pay $30 for what was $15 yesterday. I guess what I'm getting at, is supply really that low, can manufacturers really not keep up or are retailers and manufacturers just taking advantage in the short term.

 

[bassjam]

If ammo prices drop again in the next couple months and there's plenty of availability again, it's only going to temporary until we get close to the fall elections when people will suddenly remember there's a Presidential election and will start panic buying all over again. Then, depending on who wins, it could all be over again by the second week of November, or it could continue for "X" amount of years.