Boston Gun Buyback yields just ONE Gun
CNB: This has been around for ten years now. Maybe more have read it.
National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council,
"Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review" (2004) Gun Buy-Backs
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=95
Gun Buy-Backs
Gun buy-back programs involve a government or private group paying individuals to turn in guns they possess. The programs do not require the participants to identify themselves, in order to encourage participation by offenders or those with weapons used in crimes. The guns are then destroyed. The theoretical premise for gun buy-back programs is that the program will lead to fewer guns on the streets because fewer guns are available for either theft or trade, and that consequently violence will decline. It is the committee’s view that the theory underlying gun buy-back programs is badly flawed and the empirical evidence demonstrates the ineffectiveness of these programs.
The theory on which gun buy-back programs is based is flawed in three respects. First, the guns that are typically surrendered in gun buy-backs are those that are least likely to be used in criminal activities. Typically, the guns turned in tend to be of two types: (1) old, malfunctioning guns whose resale value is less than the reward offered in buy-back programs or (2) guns owned by individuals who derive little value from the possession of the guns (e.g., those who have inherited guns). The Police Executive Research Forum (1996) found this in their analysis of the differences between weapons handed in and those used in crimes. In contrast, those who are either using guns to carry out crimes or as protection in the course of engaging in other illegal activities, such as drug selling, have actively acquired their guns and are unlikely to want to participate in such programs.
Second, because replacement guns are relatively easily obtained, the actual decline in the number of guns on the street may be smaller than the number of guns that are turned in. Third, the likelihood that any particular gun will be used in a crime in a given year is low. In 1999, approximately 6,500 homicides were committed with handguns. There are approximately 70 million handguns in the United States. Thus, if a different handgun were used in each homicide, the likelihood that a particular handgun would be used to kill an individual in a particular year is 1 in 10,000. The typical gun buy-back program yields less than 1,000 guns. Even ignoring the first two points made above (the guns turned in are unlikely to be used by criminals and may be replaced by purchases of new guns), one would expect a reduction of less than one-tenth of one homicide per year in response to such a gun buy-back program. The program might be cost-effective if those were the correct parameters, but the small scale makes it highly unlikely that its effects would be detected.
In light of the weakness in the theory underlying gun buy-backs, it is not surprising that research evaluations of U.S. efforts have consistently failed to document any link between such programs and reductions in gun violence (Callahan et al., 1994; Police Executive Research Forum, 1996; Rosenfeld, 1996).
Outside the United States there have been a small number of buy-backs of much larger quantities of weapons, in response to high-profile mass murders with firearms. Following a killing of 35 persons in Tasmania in 1996 by a lone gunman, the Australian government prohibited certain categories of long guns and provided funds to buy back all such weapons in private hands (Reuter and Mouzos, 2003). A total of 640,000 weapons were handed in to the government (at an average price of approximately $350), constituting about 20 percent of the estimated stock of weapons. The weapons subject to the buy-back, however, accounted for a modest share of all homicides or violent crimes more generally prior to the buy-back. Unsurprisingly, Reuter and Mouzos (2003) were unable to find evidence of a substantial decline in rates for these crimes. They noted that in the six years following the buy-back, there were no mass murders with firearms and fewer mass murders than in the previous period; these are both weak tests given the small numbers of such incidents annually.
CNB: Buy-Backs are supposed to prevent suicides by removing guns from the household. FS/S is the proportion of firearm suicide to total suicide.
National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council,
"Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review" (2004)
Chapter 7 Firearms and Suicide
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=169
In Box 7-2, for example, we present the results of a simulation conducted by the committee. In this Monte Carlo simulation, we study the relation between the suicide rate and FS/S as a proxy for gun ownership**, but we derive very different results than those reported by Miller et al. (2002a, 2002c). In particular, we find a negative association between the suicide rate and FS/S: in this simulation, if FS/S is a good proxy for ownership, gun owners are less likely than nonowners to commit suicide.
CNB: If gunowners are less likely to commit suicide than non-owners as NRC found, owning a gun does not make you more likely to commit suicide, and encouraging people to sell their guns to the government won't lower the suicide rate.
Applying CDC-speak, the gun is not the germ of the gun suicide epidemic, and elimination of the "germ" will not cure the disease. Gun suicide does not appear to fit the germ theory of disease;it does appear to fit the immune system failure model, where the actual germ (a death wish) overrides a weakened immune system (the will to live), regardless of exposure of healthy people to the suspected germ (gun in the home).
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* In 2011, approximately 6,220 homicides were committed with handguns. There are approximately 112 million handguns in the United States. Thus, if a different handgun were used in each homicide, the likelihood that a particular handgun would be used to kill an individual in a particular year is 1 in 18,000.
--figures updated to 2011 statistics assuming that guns turned in by buybacks are typical of guns used in murder.
** Proxies used in research for rate of gunownership in a jurisdiction under study have included:
o proportion of suicides by shooting;
o subscriptions to
Guns & Ammo magazine;
o NRA memberships;
o NICS background checks;
o CCW permit/license issuance.
None of these are accurate measures of rate of gun ownership in city X or county Y, there are arguments for and against using them.