El Rojo said:
Again, you are putting all of your eggs into the "court" basket.
If we lose in the legislature (which we have been doing pretty consistently here in CA) then our next basket is the court basket. If we lose in that, our next basket is one I don't want to think about right now.
That is a pretty big "IF" the court upholds the 10th Amendment. If they don't hear it, guess what, the feds keep on restricting machine guns. They have been restricting machine guns since 1938, I sure hope something is ready to change suddenly. I am glad you are optimistic about it. I hope California completely over turns all of their anti-gun laws and we live in a free society again. Some people hope they win the lottery. I think the odds of the lottery are better.
The court upholding the 10th is an iffy proposition. If they do uphold the 10th, it won't change the NFA; it will only change the 1986 MG ban. The NFA has a valid nexus of regulation, which is taxation. The 86 MG ban
removes that nexus. The court could (and realisticly might) remove that law. In fact, FYI, the 9th circuit HAS struck down the 86 MG ban and there are people in the 9th circuit areas who have Form 4s ready to file as soon as the BATF starts accepting them. The BATF has said, "we won't accept them 'til the SCOTUS resolves the issue", and I'm actually optimistic that it will be resolved correctly. And where is this 9th circuit court? It's in liberal San Francisco! So what does that do to your argument here?
So you don't see the argument that the anti's are going to make about the "compelling governmental interest" of restricting dangerous weapons like nuclear arms, artillary, fully automatic weapons, high capacity magazines, unsafe handguns and how the least restrictive means is to ban them and allow "safe handguns" or just shotguns?
I see they would make it and when it's on a strict scrutiny test, it will not stand up.
All you have to combat this possibility is that "strict scrutiny" has always been favorable for the First Amendment and you have a strong feeling about John Roberts. If we lose, we lose everything as there will be a clear presidence for the government's ability to "restrict" our arms. Are you prepared to gamble the entire game on 9 people in black robes? You say you are.
This is no gamble. Even with an inconceivably bad court outcome on this proposed amendment we wouldn't be any worse off than we are now. The CA AWB was already challenged in court in CA in the Silveria vs. Lockyer case. Yes! That case used the 2nd amend to challenge the CA AWB. That case crashed and burned. Why? Because the 2nd has plenty of wiggle room in it. Is it an individual right? And more importantly to what standard should regulations be held? The court said "reasonable basis" and guess what, CA's AWB does stand up to reasonable basis scrutiny. If it had been held up to strict scrutiny it would have been shot down, like almost every other law or regulation that has to stand up to strict scrutiny. So this isn't a gamble; we've already lost on what we've got now and the new amendment couldn't make things worse.
Please do some reading about these standards. I'm laboring to explain something which is a simple misunderstanding here.
I guess the part that puzzles me the most is that we already have such a hard time with the 2nd Amendment and logically applying it, so suddenly you think it is going to be so clear to the anti's when they see "strict scrutiny".
That's exactly what will happen. Read this
article about the Sileira case and then get back to me please. This proposed amendment destroys that problem.
They really don't care about playing by the rules or using logic and reasoning to back up their arguments. They apply emotion and the dumbest factor..
If you start arguing in terms of doomsday outcomes then I can't argue with you. If the courts aren't going to uphold the law, then we could pass whatever amendment we want to. We could have an amendment that says "Senor El Rojo shall have the right to possess an M16 at all times and places in the state of California and no authority shall regulate that right or prevent him from doing so and the State of California shall send him a case of 223 every Christmas" and if the courts stop following the law then none of that will happen. Nothing we can do about that. That's out of the scope of this situation. The proposed amend will be the strongest legal wording we can have and it gives iron-clad guidance to courts about what to do, in a language that they understand with no wiggle room.
If you're saying that we should give up on the courts, then the only thing we have left is this:
I say, no way, or at least, not yet.
I'll say it again, there's no better way a RKBA amendment could be written than Jon's writing here. There's no stronger or clearer or less ambiguous way to say it. Unless you think it's time to start shooting at helicopters, then let's get this amendment on the ballot and let's get it passed. If we find out that the courts won't enforce the clear wording then great, time to use the ammo box.