I remember your test of one old cartridge, where you did not blow yourself up. Your test was not particularly exhaustive as all you measured was velocity, you had no idea of pressures. But, I suggest you write your test and results on the back of a 3 X 5 inch index card and send it off to the next Insensitive Munitions Symposium and present the results of your test, and your conclusions. I am sure such a ground breaking test and conclusion will be highlighted in the next meeting bulletin. I don’t see an announcement for a 2023 symposium, but I am sure another will be scheduled in the near future.
2021 Insensitive Munitions & Energetic Materials (IMEM) Technology Symposium
https://www.ndia.org/events/2021/4/7/imem-technology-symposium#
Now in so far as your one off test, how about making your test slightly more rigorous? . There are a number of known unknowns that I have about deteriorated gunpowder. One of which, the level of deterioration it takes for gunpowder to detonate, and the number of tries. Since neither of us have the test equipment to determine percentage of stabilizer left, I am going to suggest to you doing a test with severely deteriorated gunpowder.
To whit, instead of shooting one round with old gunpowder, how about segregating about 150 old rifle rounds. Pick your caliber, but it would be fun to see how your Garand handles this. Shoot at least ten rounds over a chronograph and record the velocity. This is for a base line.
Then disassemble the rest of the rounds, but take an average powder charge weight from ten rounds, to use later . Put the gunpowder in a clear glass container and stopper it. Put the container in a toaster oven at 165 F (ish) and monitor the days it takes for the gunpowder to fume. And then, go a couple days after that to deplete as much of the stabilizer in the gunpowder. I don’t know when all stabilizer is depleted, so age the gunpowder past first fuming. And don’t sniff the stuff!
Then, load up the disassembled cases with this deteriorated gunpowder, charge the cartridges with the original powder charge, and as soon as possible, go to the range with your chronograph. You know, as I know, deteriorated gunpowder is outgassing corrosive gas, so limit the time of exposure to maintain case integrity. Shoot all the rounds noting the velocity and whether you encounter any pressure indications.
I don’t know what will happen. This is also, only 100 rounds. Is a 1 in a 100 statistically significant? Be interesting to find out if something happens in one hundred rounds. You believe it will be a big nothing burger because you have this “fizz theory” about gunpowder. That is, gunpowder in the case loses its fizz like soda in a bottle. I think your fizz theory is wrong. How about a more comprehensive test?