Gun prices continue to drop. Hallelujah!

[Solomonson]

Gun prices continue to drop. Hallelujah! Name brand AR15s are now selling for under $400.00. Base models of 10/22s are under $200.00 again. Marlin Model 60s are about 50 bucks less than that. (Both 10/22 and M60 sales are extra important because they appeal to noobs.) S&W and others are offering aggressive rebates on some of their polymer handguns. Even stores like Dick's are running substantial sales.

I really appreciate this move away from the insanely high prices driven by an unsustainable high demand. I wonder where prices will ultimately stabilize (until politics changes things once more) compared to today?

I realize that some will continue to claim that gun prices are not dropping. That simply doesn't reflect the market. It's nice to see pricing have an actual connection to the cost of actually producing and selling firearms once more.

 

[browningguy]

Once enough manufacturers go bankrupt prices will stabilize.

 

[hdwhit]

browningguy wrote:
Once enough manufacturers go bankrupt prices will stabilize.

Darn, beat me to it.

Seriously, many manufacturers expanded production to try and satisfy unusually high demand. With a sudden drop in demand, manufacturers have been forced with having to dispose of this now-excess product until they can reset their processes and associated supply chains.

I suspect the manufacturers, in general, won't have very much market power throughout the rest of 2017. We could even see a financially healthy manufacturer prolong the low prices and perhaps even force them lower for a short time in a bid to increase market share.

I don't look for very many bankrupticies, but I do see manufacturers abandoning product lines that aren't performing.

 

[Meplat 308]

Where are these low prices to be found ? 10/22's are still $300 most everywhere in

Edit to add; the northeast.

 

[Wisco]

I wish I'd see a drop in the "premium" AR market as I'm looking to put together one more carbine. BCM, Daniel Defense, etc, remain unchanged with prices. Excellent quality, but not what I'd call "high end" guns. While I appreciate that they never hiked prices, now they're really high, comparatively. For example, $439 for a basic M4 carbine upper PLUS $169 for a BCG when I'm seeing whole rifles from other brands for $400.

 

[Wisco]

One more thing - the used market doesn't seem great where I live. It's hard to tell a guy that the used Colt AR he bought for $2,000 in 2013 is worth $600 now. I still see used 6920 carbines listed for $1000+

 

[PCFlorida]

One more thing - the used market doesn't seem great where I live. It's hard to tell a guy that the used Colt AR he bought for $2,000 in 2013 is worth $600 now. I still see used 6920 carbines listed for $1000+

Very true. I never bought into the whole Colt (or other name brands) thing, not when I could get an accurate rifle or carbine from PSA or others, put a good red dot on it and shoot away.

 

[Wisco]

Very true. I never bought into the whole Colt (or other name brands) thing, not when I could get an accurate rifle or carbine from PSA or others, put a good red dot on it and shoot away.

I saw an ad for PSA - both an AK and AR for something like $900 total. That's got to be near the bottom price of where the market is going. And PSA or Colt - they'll all be $2000 during a panic...

 

[Mn Fats]

I saw an ad for PSA - both an AK and AR for something like $900 total.

Which model PSA is that? AK and AR together for $900? Or each. Cause I see the PSA Classic Freedom model AR-15 is at about $500 around here.

 

[Wisco]

Which model PSA is that? AK and AR together for $900?The PSA Classic Freedom model AR-15 is at about $500.

It linked to PSA's website. There were a few options - blemished models, polymer AK and I think some regular models for $1000 or less.

 

[salt&battery]

I wish I'd see a drop in the "premium" AR market as I'm looking to put together one more carbine. BCM, Daniel Defense, etc, remain unchanged with prices. Excellent quality, but not what I'd call "high end" guns. While I appreciate that they never hiked prices, now they're really high, comparatively. For example, $439 for a basic M4 carbine upper PLUS $169 for a BCG when I'm seeing whole rifles from other brands for $400.

they make so much money on the "high end" rifles they can get through a drop in sales for a while

 

[Solomonson]

Once enough manufacturers go bankrupt prices will stabilize.

What makes you think anyone is going "bankrupt"? Manufacturers and distributors were cutting a very fat hog for a very long time. There was and in some cases is plenty of room to cut gluttonous fat.

 

[Solomonson]

Where are these low prices to be found ? 10/22's are still $300 most everywhere in

$199.99 at Dick's Sports.

 

[Solomonson]

Darn, beat me to it.

Seriously, many manufacturers expanded production to try and satisfy unusually high demand. With a sudden drop in demand, manufacturers have been forced with having to dispose of this now-excess product until they can reset their processes and associated supply chains.

I suspect the manufacturers, in general, won't have very much market power throughout the rest of 2017. We could even see a financially healthy manufacturer prolong the low prices and perhaps even force them lower for a short time in a bid to increase market share.

There's only two ways they can regain "market power" back. If demand goes through the roof (again) or if they essentially collude. S&W, Ruger and others are making pricing moves designed to move product. If demand remains weak, prices will remain lower, unless of course they collude. The hard decision they are going to have to face is whether or not to continue to cut prices to spur production. If they don't, they might well be forced to focus cutting variable costs. In other words, labor.

If a major -- S&W, Ruger, etc. seriously cuts pricing in order to build market share, their competitors will be forced to follow. That's when we'll get some truly great prices.

I don't look for very many bankrupticies, but I do see manufacturers abandoning product lines that aren't performing.

That's good business practice.

 

[jmr40]

Prices are relative to income. In 1990 the median household income was less than $30,000. In 2016 it was closer to $60,000. A gun that sold in 1990 for $200 should be priced at about $400 today. The fact is that even during the run on guns buyers were paying a smaller percentage of their incomes on them than at any time in history.

The competition has already reduced the price of guns. Prior to the AWB in 1994 an AR was selling for $700-$1000. That means in relation to incomes an AR should be $1500-$2000 today. And that is about where the high end AR's are priced. But there are many more options today than in 1990. Even during the buying frenzy of the last 8 years a very usable AR could be had for $600-$700.

When in 2017 manufacturers start selling guns at prices well below 1990 levels (adjusted for inflation) the gun manufacturers are in trouble.

 

[salt&battery]

Prices are relative to income. In 1990 the median household income was less than $30,000. In 2016 it was closer to $60,000. A gun that sold in 1990 for $200 should be priced at about $400 today. The fact is that even during the run on guns buyers were paying a smaller percentage of their incomes on them than at any time in history.

The competition has already reduced the price of guns. Prior to the AWB in 1994 an AR was selling for $700-$1000. That means in relation to incomes an AR should be $1500-$2000 today. And that is about where the high end AR's are priced. But there are many more options today than in 1990. Even during the buying frenzy of the last 8 years a very usable AR could be had for $600-$700.

When in 2017 manufacturers start selling guns at prices well below 1990 levels (adjusted for inflation) the gun manufacturers are in trouble.

the only way for the median income to go up from 1990 to 2016 is thru govt jobs not the private sector. wages for trades have hardly moved for 30 years. in 1989 I bought a colt hbar used for 400 bucks and I was getting paid to frame houses do roofs and concrete work almost the same as now

 

[SwaneeSR]

First of all, let us all enjoy the non-panic. A little break in the craziness. My son purchased the Ruger entry-level AR as his first firearm purchase. Well worth the money at today's prices.

In the end guns are just tools and hobby items. Our budget starts with food, gas, house payment, ect.

Firearms, reloading supplies, buy now before the mid-term election cycle cranks the emotions back up. Think long-term. The craziness will be back.

 

[jmace57]

Can I add the word "new" to the original title? I can tell you that the price of older Colt and S&Ws has been in a steady climb. Not like the Python craziness, but even Troopers and 3 5 7s are climbing significantly. I am mostly a S&W revolver collector and anything pinned & recessed is going up. While it had been steadily increasing over the past 4 or 5 years, it seems to be really accelerating in the past 6 months.

 

[MedWheeler]

What I did enjoy during the "more-stressed" years was good prices I was finding on used .22 caliber firearms. People under the impression there wasn't enough rimfire ammunition for them were unloading (see what I did there!?) them for what I found to be nice deals. Picked up quite a few, including two Marlin 99M1 rifles, a Glenfield 75, and a Marlin 25, along with a few handguns.

 

[Carl N. Brown]

Checking the inflation calculater at Wikipedia, $100 in income in 1990 would $183 adjusted for inflation. That is inflation in prices of general consumer goods.

I remember $30 Mausers and Enfields in 1967. Today that would be about $215 adjusted for inflation. My Marlin M99 (early version of the Marlin M60) was $39.95 which works out about $280 to $290 in 2016 dollars.

I remember the horrible inflation rates of the 1970s. Those were bad days.

 

[bassjam]

the only way for the median income to go up from 1990 to 2016 is thru govt jobs not the private sector. wages for trades have hardly moved for 30 years. in 1989 I bought a colt hbar used for 400 bucks and I was getting paid to frame houses do roofs and concrete work almost the same as now

Trades isn't where the money is anymore. There used to be a demand for those types of workers, but that doesn't exist anymore and the money left as well. Just because skilled labor wages have been flat, doesn't mean all job wages have stayed flat.

 

[salt&battery]

Trades isn't where the money is anymore. There used to be a demand for those types of workers, but that doesn't exist anymore and the money left as well. Just because skilled labor wages have been flat, doesn't mean all job wages have stayed flat.

there is no demand for the trades anymore? the tens of millions of Mexicans working in the trades kept wages low. there are no more building to build bridges roads to construct? tell me besides teachers ,govt jobs whose money can come from the barrel of a gun where have wages gone up?

 

[bassjam]

there is no demand for the trades anymore? the tens of millions of Mexicans working in the trades kept wages low. there are no more building to build bridges roads to construct? tell me besides teachers ,govt jobs whose money can come from the barrel of a gun where have wages gone up?

That was kind of my point, there's an oversupply of cheap workers, so there's no demand for workers for those jobs. And other trades are being replaced by automation.

IT is still a good field to get into. Really any STEM job pays very well, I'm in engineering and my pay increases have stayed well above inflation.

 

[salt&battery]

That was kind of my point, there's an oversupply of cheap workers, so there's no demand for workers for those jobs. And other trades are being replaced by automation.

IT is still a good field to get into. Really any STEM job pays very well, I'm in engineering and my pay increases have stayed well above inflation.

good for you glad your pay is keeping up with the monster of inflation

 

[ilbob]

Once enough manufacturers go bankrupt prices will stabilize.

There always be a few manufacturers that go bankrupt because there are all kinds of businesses that just aren't viable. My guess is that most manufacturers will settle into the new Norm pretty well as will most Distributors and dealers.

There is nothing sacred about Firearms related businesses that means they won't go under just because they're poorly run. You can bet your bottom dollar that the well-run organizations knew that eventually the Panic would stop and things would go back to a more normal condition. Those companies likely had some kind of plan to deal with it. Any company that thought the boom was going to continue forever pretty much deserves to go under.