If there were to be a nuclear attack tomorrow by terrorists on an American city?

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I put much more energy into worrying about a bacon cheeseburger killing me (albeit incrementally) than some terrorist with a nuke. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but it will likely remain statistically remote for the forseeable future. Terrorist nukes are somewhere between the Yellowstone supervolcano (pretty much a zero) and radon poisoning (possible but still quite remote).

No one here gets out alive, man.

If and when it happens, I'm putting my money on Tel Aviv buying it first. If over here, NYC or DC, naturally. I am going to both of those places for a combined 10 days or so in October. I will sleep quite soundly.

By the way, I didn't know that people still link to WND. Go back and read their million or so "Y2K=TEOTWAKI!" articles if you want some laughs (or have they pulled them all?).
 
One other thing--if it does happen here, you are virtually assured that you'll be living a near complete police state afterwards. Kinda dampens the enthusiasm for surviving to me. Seeing the final, complete and irreversable end of what's left of the American republic will not be a happy time for many of us. Maybe chomping down on a strontium-90 burrito won't seem so bad afterwards.

I don't have any kids, so it is easier for me to take this attitude. I'll really would feel sorry for the younger generation.
 
Lonestar,

This experiment has been done before in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with very different results than what you've described. Of the over half a million people estimated to have been in Hiroshima and Nagasaki when the atomic bombs were dropped 150,000 are estimated to have been killed by the initial blast/heat/radiation/firestorm and fallout from the nuclear weapons. Subsequent deaths attributed to all sources of radiation exposure from the bombs resulted in an estimated 4,800 cancer deaths over the decades following the war. All numbers from the Radiation Research Effects Foundation in Japan(http://www.rerf.or.jp/)

It's not that fallout doesn't represent a hazard, I agree that it certainly does. It's that the description given is more akin to something from "On The Beach" than what is my current understanding. You've got a lot of good information in your post that can be useful, but the hyperbole sort of washes it out.

My opinion of the window to act is a little more dire than yours. I think you've probably got less than 15 minutes to either button up or skoot if a nuclear weapon is detonated. But the dose estimates from Hiroshima and Nagasaki indicate that people more than ~1,500 meters from ground zero received doses low enough to produce no acute effects. Those inside buildings received half those estimated doses. This means that getting out in a car could be feasible if the right precautions were taken to prevent anything from getting into the vehicle from the outside. The distance needed to travel would be less than a mile to get outside of the plume. To me this means you've got a good chance of reaching safety safely. OTOH, your advice on sheltering is spot on with NWSS.

Sheltering for less than 100 hours would be expected to allow the vast majority of the hot radionuclides to decay to relatively safe levels. This would allow safe evacuation of the worst affected area within 12 miles downwind of "ground zero". Putting mass between you and the outside would minimize the dose received. FEMA/DOE estimates are that the areas further downwind would be minimally affected.

Could you provide some references for your information so that we might better understand your perspective?
 
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Also remember that the hiroshima and nagasaki weapons, both different types mind you, were grossly inefficient by todays standards. They both used many many times more fissionable material to get the yield that a modern weapon would. Gun type weapons like them went out in the sixties.

IIRC it rained immediately after the blast in Nagasaki. That brought a lot of unburnt plutonium from an already inefficient weapon directly onto the exposed population where it was presumably ingested along with the rainwater as the only source of water. Ingestion of a radiation emitter is a whole different ball of wax then a few stray neutrons. Back in my earliers days, we trained to clean up radiation spills using nothing more than a mk5 gas mask and a canary suit. The basic idea was the same, do not allow yourself to become contaminated with particulate radiation sources.

There are going to be a lot of things that are going to be neccessary to do after a nuclear blast to assure you and your families long term and short term survival. Do not let the idea of a bit of exposure to radiation prevent you from doing them. Minimize your exposure by all means.

Again, I am not saying that fallout is safe, I just believe that from historical evidence, the risks are greatly hyped.
 
It is clearly evident that many here do not know what Nukes do. Yes, they go BOOM. Yes they produce rads. Not much knowledge is shown here on how, where and when. You folks need to study up.

This particular thread discusses a terrorist action. That wil clearly be limited in scope. There are said to be 7 targets. Find out where they are. And then plan for it.

We heard for decades that a WTC type terr attack was going to happen. All the denial is now moot. Yes, it can happen in your lifetime.

My own plan is to hunker down, until I better understand what, where and when the effects are and are not. A smuggled nuke is going to be small, maybe one of those reknown Russian suitcase nukes. Maybe, an improvised bomb. Maybe just a dirty bomb with no real blast.

The real problem is going to be the after effects. Will society break down. Will other enemies take advantage and launch? Will we launch, if we got half an idea of who, how, what and where?

Make the plans to survive. You can't count on the luxury of being vaporized at GZ. How would you explain to your famly and self, that you had the warnings and the means to make just a small plan and did not? 90 days of food and meds is do-able. Water supplies are do-able. Simple shields against rads are in almost every home. You just have to know what they are. How would you clear off the "snow" if it fell on your roof? Is your drainage right?

And you better believe, things are going to change in a big way afterwards. And you will be wanting it to happen. *IF* this comes to pass.

Guns and ammo will help, but food and water is more important. Medicines are also important. Both what you take now and what will be needed later. You better have bleach and hydrogen peroxide stocked and know how it is taken advantage of.

Some of us are going to have to clean that mess up! It is better that people such as myself stuff the bodybags, rather than my grandkids........... Think on it.

Jerry
 
brerrabbit, wrt the "black rain" that fell after each weapon, I was fortunate enough to have been allowed to work with some of the residue from the rain when I was Oak Ridge National Labs. We found no significant U in our analysis. What we did find that was interesting was that the material was primarily a flat graphitic soot. We proposed that the material was due to the firestorm that occured and the amount of pyrolised carbanaceous material with the thermal pulse. Normal soot from fires is round and fluffy and to get a graphitic soot you need very unique conditions.
 
I never figured the blast would have been hot enough, long enough to convert carbon to graphite in any quantity. I am impressed.

The story I heard about the black rain in Nagasaki was from a lot of old school nuke weaponeers. There are old wives tales in their field, just like many others.

I used to sleep about 3 foot from a nuclear reactor that was critical. The nukes in the audience are gonna chuckle when they hear the way I phrased it.:)

I have a bit of experience with the nuclear field, and some with weapons. Not an expert mind you, but a very heavily educated layman.

Again, just my two cents. Based on past history, protect your children as best you can even if it means you getting a dose. Odds are, you will die of something else based on your age. Them starving to death or of dehydration because of your inaction based on fear of radiation is a very real danger.

How many of you have enough food and water to last your family for three weeks? This is not a survivalist question. A true survivalist will have enough for at least a year. Think katrina.

How many of you have enough fuel stored up to get the hell out of Dodge if neccesary. Remember the lines out of New Orleans and how many stations still had fuel.

The biggest thing that effects your survival in a disaster, if you are not killed outright, are the preperations you have taken. Do you have any preps for any type of disaster?

Most of the folks on THR are big firearms advocates. I am down with that, because I am also. But that is only part of the solution, remember, you cant eat a rifle.
 
From Brer Rabbit:

"Most of the folks on THR are big firearms advocates. I am down with that, because I am also. But that is only part of the solution, remember, you cant eat a rifle."

True, but if you don't have a rifle, you're far less likely TO eat.

If, as a lot of writers and modern-day prophets have said, a nuclear attack could lead to a meltdown of civilized society (in the classis sense of "civilized" meaning the art of living in cities), the most effective way to defend the suburbs against "zombie attacks" is going to be through group efforts best effected with high powered rifles AT DISTANCES with corpses left far away as warnings. It may also be necessary to take out large groups of ill-prepared liberals (and a few conservatives) but the liberals are primarily responsible for getting us to the brink of nuclear disaster by refusing to acknowledge and placating a determined foe. Are these acts further evidence of civil breakdown? Nope. Simply necessary for survival.

-nb
socialist occupied Maryland
 
BR,

We found similar types of graphitic soot associated with firestorms from other sources. Very large forrest fires and large industrial urban fires being the 2 primary examples. In all 3 typse of events, nuc weapon, large forrest fires, large industrial complex fires we proposed that the firestorms created anoxic heating conditions that pyrolised a lot of material that burned at very high temps with a shortage of oxygen. Amazing level of similarity in the soots from NASA U2 samples over large scale forrest fires, soots from the industrial complex fires and the black rain soots.

We get back to the short form of preparations to shelter or skoot being the most important thing you can do because you're going to see Katrina/Texas style problems that occur right after the event that may keep you from coming up with the means to ride out the next 100 hours. Don't expect to find a cache of old Civil Defense supplys in a "Fallout" shelter either. The programs got dropped and the materials are now ebay collectables. A little bit of nostalgia of the Cold War and MAD.
 
Free for all, with the government response being a Chinese fire drill.

Picture Katrina redux, but WITHOUT advance warning for people to get out, and without a chance to get things in place. Even with that, they "lost" water trucks, sent people to the convention center and then couldn't figure a way to get them out, etc.

You do not want to have ANYTHING do with cattle-car government screwup plans. You want to be able to either hunker down where you are with supplies, or be able to take back roads to get to whereever. If you're near water, make arrangements with someone who has a decent-sized boat (deep sea fishing sort or larger) and can accomodate you and your family. Make a deal, they run and prepare it for departure, you bring the supplies, something like that.

Any major interstate would quickly become a parking lot filled with fighting people right after the first accident blocks the road. Unless you want to have to try to shoot the first people who try to pull supplies off the top of your vehicle or sit up there with a rifle, hoping some lowlife with a 9mm isn't drawing a bead on you from some nearby car, not something you want to be involved with.
 
A dirty bomb will be a media event more than the damage it causes.

An actual nuke...well....that's a differenct matter. But, again, there
will be a certain amount of media fuel on that fire as well. A single "small"
nuclear event in a single, even densely populated city, will NOT cause
this country to collapse.

As long as you're not suffering from 3rd degree burns from the initial
blast and not hanging around the crater huffing radioactive particles,
you'll be fine. It's all the stupid panic when people three states away
think they need to fill up all their gas cans, clear the store shelves,
and head for the hills, that will add to the strain on the system.

This nation has plenty of capacity to deal with a mascal WMD event.
But, yes, if you're directly in the affected area, expect a three day
wait, just like Katrina, before help gets to you. I know that seems like
a long time in today's fast-food-on-demand culture, but it isn't --especially
if you're healthy.

If you're in the affected area sit tight and be patient. The world hasn't
ended and this country would come back just like Japan did after it was
nuked. Have three days of food and water at the very least and prepare to
stand in some very long lines for a bus on day four. When you disembark
you'll be given an MRE and a liter of water and be assigned to a tent (one
among thousands in a very large field). Take the first open cot you find, sit
down, eat, drink, take a nap.

Yes, you will have been relieved of your firearm --but no big loss since it
was going to hold the radioactivity longer than you will. :barf:
 
Normball
Think of it this way.

I have food, large quantities of it. I do not have to worry about finding food for my family after TSHTF. If you do not have food, you do have to find food for your family. If you do not go out and actively either kill an animal, or heist food from someone that has it, you and yours are going to starve. Whether or not I find food any particular day, my family still eats, does yours? How long are you still mobile without food?

I have weapons to protect what I have, and enough stored ammunition that I will not run out first. Do not confuse willingness to prepare, with unwillingness to kill PSHTF. I also have neighbors that are in a situation that they are not going to have to worry about food either. If the rambo types decide to come into this AO to heist food, they will be hung up on the fence next to the coyotes.

You may have your viewpoints on weapons, I do not share them. I consider food and water the primary prep items followed by weapons. Good neighbors are also a very big prep item.

I doubt if a single nuclear weapon will end american civilization. But if all you have is a rifle, and you are taking other peoples food away at riflepoint, the consequences might be pretty severe on you when the state of emergency is over.

Unlike you, I feel SHTF is not a time to fix past inequities. It is a time to hang together and try to keep civilization going. I am a survivalist, even I do not like the prospect of living without the niceties civilization provides.



ThinBlackLine

You bring up a very good point. A dirty bomb is a very nasty weapon. It will probably not cause all that many deaths, but then again I may be mistaken.

Does anyone have any good estimates of exposure from estimates of what a dirty bomb would do?
 
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Anyone talking about TVs and Windup Radios, you may want to consider EMP,, the BGs already know about it,, My $20 is for the NYSE, bye bye American Economy. Stop and think, there only going to get one or two, it wont be an all out attack. Take out lots of ppl in NY and the entire Economy.
 
Take out lots of ppl in NY and the entire Economy.
Click to expand...
That's assuming an awful lot.

Thing is, a terrorist nuclear attack is going to be an isolated event involving a very low yield weapon. There just isn't enough boom from a "suitcase" nuke (more like a 300lb garbage can than a suitcase, but whatever. It'll fit in a minivan.) to cause widespread devastation and kill a whole lot of people. Had the 9/11 attack been that kind of nuclear attack, it would have been a whole lot scarier than planes hitting buildings, but not much more destructive.

EMP is a bit overplayed. EMP much less destructive than is commonly believed. If you want to EMP a large area, you need an airburst. Even if you achieve a good high altitude airburst above wall street (maybe a suicide bomber in a light plane), you're still only going to destroy a fraction of the computer infrastructure on which the economy relies. Also, these are private businesses we're talking about, not the government. "Disaster Recovery" usually refers to fires and floods, but it still assumes total, or near-total destruction of the primary facilities. Such scenarios are seriously addressed in businesses.

One or two small devices, no matter where they're detonated, will not spell doom for the economy. An all-out nuclear exchange with the Soviets would, but a terrorist attack just isn't that big of a deal.
 
true an air burst is most effective for EMP, but the EMP is still there for a ground destination.

I can tell you that I am NO EXPERT into the whole workings of the stock exchanges and all, but everyone knows it will hurt somehow if the NYSE is just gone one day.
 
but the EMP is still there for a ground destination
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Absolutely true. There will be EMP effects no matter what. The question is how long it will take to get everything up and running again. The last few stock trades just going into the system will be lost, but if a nuke goes off at 1330, everything up until 1200 will be retrievable (at least). Data of that importance is sent off-site pronto, and the majority of the trading infrastructure isn't in that building anyway.

NYSE disappearing in a blinding flash will have a serious effect. There is absolutely no doubt of that. And while the government does nothing, the locals wail, and the media tells us all we'll starve to death in a week or so, the people who actually matter (the traders, the brokerage firms, etc.) will be setting up shop in the nearest empty warehouse within a day. The ultimate incentive, making vast amounts of money, will drive the market back into operation in no time. It will be chaotic, it will be terrifying, and it will be driving its way back to normal almost instantly. There is money to be made in the wake of a disaster like that, and every trader who survives is going to want a piece of it.

This holds true for any terrorist nuke hit on any target anywhere in the country.

And, when the market comes back online, I'll be buying every share of Anbex and General Dynamics I can get my grubby paws on.
 
brerrabbit:

A real nightmare aspect. How many Russian nukes are missing? And does AQ have enough expertise to use them? Would some other World player broker them, to undermine us?

I am not saying it is there. But, more than one, or two nukes set off in the right places, is going to complicate issues immensely. Just Manhatten, Chicago, LA and Miami would do it, I think. Anything more would be icing on the cake.

Even a paranoid, like myself, finds it difficult to believe AQ has the means to pull something of this scope off. I think it would certainly answer some of our illegal immigrant problems. In fact it might even reverse.

Jerry
 
If all out war comes with Russia, or China I can only hope the first one hits my house. Sorry but I dont want to live or raise my children in a post nuclear war world. Better to be vaporized in a flash than starve to death in the following weeks. If a terrorist were to detonate a nuke in a major city or two the effects would be devestating. Remember what 9-11 did to the economy, just imagine a nuke. Also the Government responce to a terrorist nuke would be just plain awful I suspect. Think total police state. A few planes being hijacked, and crashed gave us the Patriot Act, warrantless wire tapping, and draconian security measures at any facility involving government. Think it cant get worse, think again. As far as being ready guns are great, and certianly a part of any well planned kit. However you cant eat guns, you cant drink bullets, and all the spare mags in the world will not replace little Timmys insulin. Having the supplies to live off of for a year should be the bear minimum period. Being able to fend of predators of the two legged variety (those who did not prepare) is also a concearn. I am fourtunate in that I dont live in a major population center, my deepest sympathy for those of you who do.
 
Glockfan.45:

The main problem is, they are not going to let you know, so you can stand under the nuke while it goes off. Limited, or full scale, a nuke war is a critter few of us truly understand. For many, it will not be like lights out, time for the grave. The question that begs to be asked, *will you kill yourself and family*?

You can plan to try to survive, or plan to die. That choice is yours to make. Plan, one way, or the other. Doing nothing will not endear you to the ones who do plan to try to survive.

I plan to survive and help others with similar plans, I have no time for whiners who could have planned, but did not.

Jerry

PS, I am not crazy about raising kids in todays world, but you take the hand that God dealt you. The way you play it sums up your worth. Your nuclear aftermath falls into the same basic category.
 
Most of chaos after a nuke detonation will be cause by an overly aggressive, ill-informed media. The impact will be multiplied many times over the initial impact of the detonation.

Will is shut down wall street? One of the little broadcast secrets of 911 follow on is financial institutions of all kinds are setting up satellite operations, redundency, the whole 9 yards. Even the federales saw the light so to speak. Very quietly congress has been approving money to move large components of the federal bureaucracy out of DC into flyover country. I don't think people understand how close the US came to decapitation on 911. If OBL thought like an American and not an Arab he would have targeting all planes into DC. One for the White House, one for the pentagon, one for congress, and one for SCOTUS though I doubt that would have had any immediate effect. We ought to be thankful OBL wanted to play to the Arab cheapseats instead of trying to kill us.
 
Destroying the NYSE would be a meaningless gesture

The floor on Wall Street is not the NYSE, the real NYSE is multiple mirrored mainframes spread out over a wide geographic area that would be nearly impossible to destroy. In fact electronic trading would continue on just as it had one second before everything was vaporized in NYC, except I imagine that it would automatically shutdown 10 minutes later once the market fell enough.
 
Azrael256:

I keep hearing Soviets. I think Russia, while still a problem, is not the main threat. China is a bigger threat to the U.S. and Russia, than Russia is to us on their own.

China has big plans and an ever growing PLAN. That is Peoples Liberation Army Navy. When you field a blue water Navy, your plans are greater the regional. China is up grading in every way, land, sea and air.

Jerry
 
two things

the chinese are gonna wait till the rest of us slaughter each other then pick up the pieces chuckling.

and thanks to everyone for all the info . i upgraded my setup here. and you want a laugh? my kid implemented plans for the pony goat and chickens to shelter inside for 3-7 days too. they might become food
 
as far as the Russian nukes that are missing, I know many have been used to power US nuclear reactors under the "megatons to megawatts" program. They clam to have dismantled "equivalent to 11,000 nuclear warheads"and 'de-enrich' the fuel to be suitable for industrial reactors.
 
Thanks guys.. I did some of research on this subject and I thought the guy that wrote the link knew what he was talking about. You might be right, there would be a lot of dead folks who were involved in the early days of nuclear testing. I'll cross my fingers and take your advice. Either way I'm still hunkering down in my home with weapons in hand. If they do it will probably a few small nukes, in multiple cities, definately NYC & DC. If there is no such thing as the "Snow of Death" then great, but then our next big concern will be a collapse in society. If DC is no more what happen with no federal government? What happens to the economy if a few major US cities go offline. Either way it is bad, but if your prepare you will be OK, you just need to defend yourselves from the "have nots" or the lazy crickets in the world. After 9/11, Katrinia and the bird flu scare, almost every Government agency is saying stock up on food and be prepared, yet some people laugh when you mention you have a simple BOB with three days worth of food. These are the ones that will panic be desperate when the SHTF.
 
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