More Junk Science -Branas

Status
Not open for further replies.

John-Melb

Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2006
Messages
260
More junk science from some anti-gun "talking head"
--------------------------
University of Pennsylvania researcher Charles Branas, shown in his
Phildelphia, Pennsylvania, office on September 30, 2009, has studied
whether carrying a gun increases a person's chance of being shot
themselves. FAYE FLAM, The Philadelphia Inquirer

PHILADELPHIA -- Meleanie Hain of Lebanon, Pa., used to tell the news
media that she carried a Glock 26 pistol everywhere she went to
protect herself and her children. Then last week she was shot to death
by her husband in what police called a murder-suicide.

For years, researchers have been trying to investigate whether
carrying a gun is protective or risky. But getting the answer through
science has proved elusive. Now, University of Pennsylvania researcher
Charles Branas has tried a new tack -- employing methods normally used
by epidemiologists to study cancer and other diseases.

Branas compared a group of shooting victims to a similar set of
"controls" who had not been shot. His results, he said, show that guns
did not, on average, protect those who possessed them from being shot
in an assault -- and in fact raised the risk by four times or more.

"People shouldn't feel that firearms are going to enhance their
safety," Branas said. The study was published in the current issue of
the prestigious American Journal of Public Health.

More national news: Cleveland.com/nation
Several statisticians, however, called this conclusion a stretch, and
questioned whether the Penn group could account for all differences
between the shooting victims and the comparison group.

Where the experts do agree is on the need for solid scientific
information about the risks or benefits of guns. More research could
help lawmakers formulate gun policies to stem the carnage.

But gun research is fraught with difficulty, the experts say. Not only
is it politically and emotionally charged but privacy issues also make
it hard to get large-scale data on who owns a gun and who carries
one.

Branas, a former paramedic trained as an epidemiologist, designed an
ambitious study that he said stemmed from his experience transporting
victims of urban violence.

For this study, he and his colleagues relied on the cooperation of
police to get information on shootings in Philadelphia between 2003
and 2006 -- a total of 3,485.

The researchers got information as the shootings occurred -- the
location, the victims' description and whether they had guns with them
at the time.

Researchers randomly chose 677 of those victims for the study. They
came from various occupations -- taxi drivers, bartenders, nurses and
drug dealers. Fifty-three percent had criminal records
-----------------------------------------------
Fifty three percent had criminal records!

Well that's certainly typical of the average law abiding gun
owner.................

It's actually scary that someone actually paid for this word vomit.
:banghead::banghead::banghead:
 
... and if the police aren't armed, they won't have to worry about being shot while on duty.
 
Last edited:
There's some serious selection bias problems. People in dangerous situations are more likely to desire a weapon to carry. He may well have a great correlation between the two variables, but eliminating confounding variables would be difficult at best.
 
So...his study evaluated the average armed citizen's chances of being shot by testing a sample that included over half that had criminal records?

This is a failure of our educational system. People gaduated to such high positions should be held to certain standards of logic. If your thinking is so muddy as to complete a "study" like this and offer it as valid, there should be penalties.

Poor. Very poor.

-Sam
 
Hmmm... what about armed citizens who successfully defended against assault involving anything other than a gun (edge weapons, impact weapons, personal weapons, unseen weapon threats)?
 
What about the Justice Departments estimated 1.5 million or the NRA's estimated 2.5 million times per year that lawful use of firearms are used by citizens to prevent crimes?

The fact is that the majority of people who are murdered (excluding suicides) with firearms are criminals. You know what, I'm ok with that. Kind of solves the criminal problem by itself. Less work for our police force.
 
They should tell this to England....obviously they're doing something wrong if they are not allowing carry and the same result is happening.

It's a study previously covered here, and it's still so chock full of junk it makes McDonald's look like health food. I've done more scientifically sound psychological research when I was in high school. This guy just threw proper testing methodology out the window for the sake of chasing an answer. Not to mention he wasn't even going on science, just statistics.

The final question is, who paid him off to produce this fluff?

It sounds like he did not find people who got shot defending themselves, just people that got shot. Like that woman in his example....her husband popped a sprocket and did a murder/suicide. We don't know the facts leading up to that.....so why is it even included?

Now, if it was a case of "during an armed robbery, she fought back, got shot 6 times." That's relevant.

Like I said, this isn't done to the standard research should be held to....the person who paid him off needs to be outed.
 
lol i still say leave gun laws alone for now, remove ALL WARNING LABELS and let nature take its toll for a year or so then re-evaluate the stats :)~
 
Last edited:
What about the Justice Departments estimated 1.5 million or the NRA's estimated 2.5 million times per year that lawful use of firearms are used by citizens to prevent crimes?

First of all the Justice Department does not keep any statistics on how many times firearms were used to thwart a crime. NO ONE collects that data. Secondly the NRA stat is just as much junk science as the study in this thread. It's based on methodology where if someone thought they were in danger, but never even saw their assailant and they produced a weapon and were not attacked it counted as a defensive gun use. We shouldn't have to stoop to junk science to make our case our case either. Blind telephone interviews where people were asked about defensive gun use is hardly conclusive. According to the FBI Uniform Crime Report in 2008 private citizens were involved in 204 justifiable homicides. 204 mean that either the public at large needs a lot of remedial marksmanship training, or there aren't nearly 2 1/2 million defensive gun uses in the US every year.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/expanded_information/data/shrtable_15.html

Given the way people like to exaggerate their claims on the gun boards behind the anonymity of a screen name, is it that hard to believe that people who are randomly called by telephone and asked about how many times they stopped a crime with their firearm that they would be more truthful? The truth is, the antis numbers are pulled out of their posterior and so are many of them on our side. It might be just a little more believable if the researchers hadn't admitted to counting incidents in which no attacker was even seen as a defensive gun use.

If the researchers were honest this post would only count as a defensive gun use, provided a police report exists somewhere to verify it:

http://www.thehighroad.org/showpost.php?p=6019178&postcount=13

The problem is, no one collects that data, not every police department in the country even reports their data to the UCR, some states have their own reporting system.

Under the criteria for the research that produced the 2.5 million DGU figure, this is a defensive gun use:

http://www.thehighroad.org/showpost.php?p=6021338&postcount=65

There is no way to tell how many real defensive gun uses there are, if you screw with the methodology enough you can come up with numbers to prove anything.

Do I think there are a lot of DGUs annually in the US? Yes, do I believe there are 2.5 million every year, not on your life....When someone comes up with real quantifiable numbers I'll believe them. Until then the 2.5 million number is as bogus as the study that is the subject of this thread.
 
In other news, the same researcher demonstrated that buying feminine hygiene products remarkably increased the chances of rape, having a child out of wedlock, and developing ovarian cancer.
 
His email is easily found on the U of P website. Might be interesting to start a dialog with him?
 
Jeff White said:
What about the Justice Departments estimated 1.5 million or the NRA's estimated 2.5 million times per year that lawful use of firearms are used by citizens to prevent crimes?

First of all the Justice Department does not keep any statistics on how many times firearms were used to thwart a crime. NO ONE collects that data. Secondly the NRA stat is just as much junk science as the study in this thread. It's based on methodology where if someone thought they were in danger, but never even saw their assailant and they produced a weapon and were not attacked it counted as a defensive gun use. We shouldn't have to stoop to junk science to make our case ... either. ....


Didn't criminologist Gary Kleck of the University of Florida do a study about firearms usage, and come up with a stat very similar to this??? IIRC he did a study from which he concluded there were about 1,000,000 usages of guns each years for self-defense by honest people. He later upped that stat to about 2,000,000 upon further research.

Was that junk science too? Or just the NRA usage of it? Inquiring minds want to know.
 
Can you say "Failure to control for an extrinsic variable, which correlates positively with both the cause and effect being studied"? Sure, I knew ya could.....
 
"Failure to control for an extrinsic variable, which correlates positively with both the cause and effect being studied"?
:uhoh::confused:

Saying it is 1/1000 of the battle ... I guess.
There have been several studies indicating that firearms have generally net positive effects on society. The Lott/Mustard, AKA, University of Chicago study was nother that comes to mind.
 
Well appleaday demonstrated it well above when he said:

In other news, the same researcher demonstrated that buying feminine hygiene products remarkably increased the chances of rape, having a child out of wedlock, and developing ovarian cancer.

Exactly.
 
*!SIGH!*

I am quite aware of such false connections, and "post hoc ergo proctor hoc" arguments.

What I am trying to get at, specifically, are the U of Chicago and/or Kleck studies valid, or invalid?
I have heard of attempts at debunking these studies, but IMHO have never heard a truly decent argument. One person when asked why the U of Chicago study was flawed said "I just know it is." That's not a reason.

I can certainly see WHY buying a feminine hygiene product would have no correlation with being raped, having a child .... etc. What troubles me is why anyone would think it DID have such a correlation. I suppose I could believe it possible such a product might cause cancer if it contained chemicals known to be carcinogens. I've heard enough about cigarettes and lung cancer over my lifetime not to dismiss the correlation there .....

Does buying a gun have any correlation with the crime rate?:confused:

Well, not on an individual basis, maybe.

When Kennesaw Georgia passed a law dictating every residence must possess a firearm, the crime rates in that town subsequently went down.
Cause and Effect?
Those who opposed the law, and oppose the right of the people in general to own private firearms, argued that the criminals didn't just go away, they just went elsewhere. That to me was a weak argument. My point would have been "fine, then pass the same law in other cities where the thugs went." If said towns don't want to, fine, let them deal with the resultant crime problem -- should it indeed arise.

Gary Kleck at the University of Florida initially started out believing gun control was a viable, effective way of fighting crime. After he'd done his studies and crunched his numbers he realized what he had didn't support his initial thesis and was intellectually honest enough to play it straight with society as he released his work.

Drs. Lott & Mustard reputedly studied every county in the U.S. over a fifteen years period, and concluded that in areas where firearms were generally available, the crime rate (specifically murder IIRC) was lower than where guns were restricted (such as Washington D.C., for example).

I am not myself a statistician and I'm aware that numbers can be crunched in many ways ... people can cherry-pick what they want in order to support any theory they favor.

There's a famous old "bromide" that goes:

A scientist trains a frog to jump on voice command.
He says "jump" and the frog jumps four feet.
He cuts off one leg and says "jump!"
and the frog jumps three feet.
Then he cuts off a second leg and yells "jump!"
And the frog jumps two feet.
He cuts off a third leg and tells the frog to jump.
And the frog jumps one foot.
So he cuts off the last leg and commands it to jump.
It sits there.
So the scientists concludes, in his notes:
"Frog with no legs goes deaf.":uhoh:


Ooooooooooops. Not exactly a great conclusion there ......


A great amount of hash has been made in recent years trying determine scientifically if the presence of firearms in society has a positive effect, or a negative effect on the rate of crime. Or ...ANY effect at all.

So, does it? I find it difficult to believe that Both Kleck's methods and those of Lott & Mustard were both flawed ....
If they are flawed, is it reasonable to conclude that gun control does work through scientific study? And how to account for places like Washington DC, which has had very strict gun control for a quarter century, and England, where gun restrictions have increased over the twentieth century with apparantly no real benefits following from the trend.....


:confused:
 
Last edited:
Didn't criminologist Gary Kleck of the University of Florida do a study about firearms usage, and come up with a stat very similar to this???

If you look at the methodology Kleck used you will find I am right, he based a large part of the number of defensive gun uses on a blind telephone poll where they randomly called people and asked them the questions if they agreed to participate. There was no control for people who were making the answers up and incidents were credited for being a defensive gun use even if the person never saw the attacker, but just thought someone was there.

The most current data on this issues comes from a 2004 study conducted by the National Institute of Science that concluded that gun laws have no effect on the crime rate. The crime rate is determined by many complex social and economic factors and the 2004 NIS study concluded that the crime rate would be the same in places where there are strict gun laws and those place where there are now or few gun laws. We discussed this study at length here when it was released.

The legal availability of guns has almost nothing to do with the crime rate.
 
Jeff White said:
The most current data on this issues comes from a 2004 study conducted by the National Institute of Science that concluded that gun laws have no effect on the crime rate. The crime rate is determined by many complex social and economic factors and the 2004 NIS study concluded that the crime rate would be the same in places where there are strict gun laws and those place where there are now or few gun laws. We discussed this study at length here when it was released.

The legal availability of guns has almost nothing to do with the crime rate.

Okay .... It's not my point to make a huge issue about this. It does seem, however, to go against a large body of evidence that I've accumulated over time -- including Cesare Beccaria's 1764 work on Crime and Punishment, which as I recall Thomas Jefferson quoted.

I can understand that factors other than simply gun laws would have an effect on crime.
I guess I'm just not really enough of a statistician to fully comprehend all the factors involved in this ........ :banghead:
 
Okay .... It's not my point to make a huge issue about this. It does seem, however, to go against a large body of evidence that I've accumulated over time -- including Cesare Beccaria's 1764 work on Crime and Punishment, which as I recall Thomas Jefferson quoted.

Go back to the Uniform Crime Reports and compare the level of violent crimw between Tennessee and Wisconsin. Both states have a similar population, but in Wisconsin there is no concealed carry. There is shall issue concealed carry in Tennessee and yet Tennessee has the higher crime rate. How do you explain that? If you were going to make a straight up comparison you would think that comparing those two states would prove that states with lax gun laws and shall issue CCW have a higher crime rate. But that doesn't hold true across the board.

Our crime rate is mostly due to a complex mix of social and economic factors and how people choose to live their lives. The crime rate in our inner cities that account for the majority of the violent crime in this country are pretty much the same no matter what the state laws on owning and carrying guns say.

There is no benefit to society as a whole in permitting concealed carry. There is only a benefit to the individual who now has the means to defend himself.

I can understand that factors other than simply gun laws would have an effect on crime.

Actually the one factor that has the biggest impact on the crime rate is how many males between the ages of 14 and 28 in a population group. This is the group that commits most of the violent crime.

You can safely walk the streets unarmed in most of all our major cities. Violent crime mostly occurs in certain neighborhoods where the proper social conditions combine to foster a culture of despair and violence.
 
Look closely at the characteristics of Branas' "case participants". More than 50% have arrest records and a large percentage are involved in drug activities. It likely that most of these folks would not have been approved for a "carry permit" .If most of the shootings in the sample involved a handgun and were on the street (which is typical in Philly), then we are dealing with ILLEGAL carry. If the arrests led to felony convictions, then ILLEGAL possession is also involved. What, then, do these results say about law-abiding citizens who possess and carry guns legally? Probably nothing. Perhaps what the authors found is that involvement in illegal activities (incl. illegal carry & possession) increases the liklihood of being shot. Is this a surprise?

Also note that the authors of the study asked the participants in their CONTROL sample if they had a gun. They did not specify HANDGUN. Most shootings in Philly involve handguns. So, it is not clear what the control sample is controlling for.
 
An additional thought on Branas' "control sample": when selecting this sample, Branas assumed that the likelihood of being shot in Philly is the same for all Philly residents. This is, of course, quite inconsistent with what actually happens. Shooting incidents in Philly are not uniformly distributed across the city. The rates are much higher in certain areas (e.g., North Philly) than in others.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top