As some of you have stated, having a planned destination, and the distance to that destination are critical concerns. In my humble opinion, I'm going to want a vehicle. On most vehicles, a tank of gas will get you at least 300 miles. If you are running farther than that, you have major drama.
Like some of you, I've had quite a bit of time under the ruck. No offense to anyone, but unless you've been a groundpounder or been attached to a groundpounder unit, you need to go out and carry some weight before making any assumptions about what you'll be able to carry. No disrespect to the backpacking community, but very few sport backpackers have carried the kind of weight we're talking about to survive independently over a significant distance.
I know I'm not the only one to have done this stuff, and others have done more, but just to put it into perspective:
25-30+ mile marches with 60-75 pounds, done it repeatedly.
12 mile speed marches with the same weight, again, done it repeatedly.
Run 5 miles with a 50+ pound ruck in an hour, yes.
Humped all night, several nights in a row, with 100-120 pound ruck, yeah, been there too.
Dude, all of these suck to a level that is nearly impossible to communicate.
Having done that, I do not believe that you are going to be able to carry a survival load AND cover sufficient ground to make walking out a viable option in most cases. If you haven't been carrying the ruck under, forget about it. If you have, you may be able to average 20+ miles a day for a sustained period over relatively flat ground. Can your family do it?
If I have to bail, and you have to come with me, here are some of my considerations.
We will have a map and a planned destination for every period of travel. If possible we will travel during daylight. Travelling at night is slower, increases the chance of injury, getting lost, and getting separated. If the tactical situation dictates, we will travel at night, and adjust our travel goals accordingly.
You are going to need to carry six quarts of water per person, plus purification. You will top up what you're carrying every time you can, because you don't know when the next refill will be. Thats 12 pounds of water per person, plus purifier. When we are at a water source, you will be drinking until you have to urinate every 15 minutes. That's a lot easier than dealing with a heat injury. If you haven't done some extended hiking, you really don't understand how much water you will go through.
Weapons, AR 15, no doubt. Yes, it's essentially a 300 yard gun. Unless you live in Nebraska, you should be able to use terrain so that 300 is enough. If there's a real shooter out there with a real sniper rifle, he's going to own you anyway. I would want one per adult, relatively identical. Maybe 8 mags total. Mags are heavy. Humping an AR is far easier than humpint a .308 anything.
I'm thinking one centerfire and one .22 pistol per group. You aren't going to separate yourself from your rifle, so a pistol is of limited utility. 3-5 mags for the centerfire, 100 rounds for the pistol.
No shotguns. Not enough range, not enough capacity, and ammo is disproportionately heavy.
Food, well, it's going to suck. We'll be eating like 2 meals per day, max. Broken down MREs are a good start. Pasta or dehydrated chow is good if water will be available. It will probably be more like three meals every two days. The issue with food isn't weight, it's bulk, which can be just as much of an issue. We will resupply with as much food as we can carry every time the opportunity presents itself, so if we're eating well, we'll be carrying more weight. We will all be lighter when we get there.
We will not plan to "live of the land" because 1) That would be very difficult in most of North America right now and 2) We will be moving as fast as possible.
Clothes/sleeping gear (snivel gear) - as little as possible. Unless it going to be under 40 F., probably no sleeping bags. As little cold gear as we can get away with. Also, unless it is below freezing (and usually not even then), you will not move with snivel gear on. It makes you sweat more, which makes gives you a higher potential for both heat and cold injuries. Also, we'll probably be standing watch, so we won't need one set of sleep gear per person.
Med Kit: We will be doing everything we can NOT TO GET HURT. Supplies will primarily be for treating sprains, strains, minor cuts, and gunshot wounds. Since trauma centers will likely be overcrowded or out of business, you can't plan on getting higher level treatment.
Books, maybe one of those little tiny Bibles, possibly a small survival manual. That's it, one each, not one for everyone.
Please note, none of this addresses bringing children or anyone but healthy adults. If you have children or health issues, I don't believe walking out is even an option.
Like I said, I'll be wanting a vehicle because walking out could very well become the defining event of your life. By the time we get to where we're going, everyone with me is going to be tired, hungry, thin, and highly pissed off at me. Like they teach at SERE, don't fail to survive because you're trying to be comfortable.
There are a lot of other issues, but it's getting late here.
) discussions on this subject was the "mule thread" :
