OT/SHTF/ How much stuff can...

[Lou629]

Headless,
Trying out your idea of moving "to an entirely different region of the country on a moments notice" in this area, and all you'll do is die out on the highway. Perhaps it would work in Indiana, but it sure won't in northern NJ. Maybe if i lived out in the middle of nowhere in Indiana somewhere that would be good advice, but your idea will get you about five city blocks in this area. You haven't lived until you've been in one of our local gridlock traffic-jams that happen every day over here for NO reason whatsoever. Give the locals a REASON and they'll turn the highways into parking lots before you can blink an eye. Unless there's at least 24-36 hours warning of an impending feces-festival, my chances are much better in my home, rather than trapped in my car on some impassable highway.
Edit for spelling, typo.on 5/25

 

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

There are plenty of ways to travel. If you don't expect to be able to drive a car, then find something else. A motorcycle is an obvious idea; it could easily slip between rows of gridlocked cars.

I think you have it backwards. City folks especially need to bug out, whereas we country folks might be able to bug in successfully. We have fewer people to cause trouble for us. Fewer neighbors, fewer criminals, fewer cops, fewer problems. We have more land per capita, which means that we have valuable resources to call upon. It only takes a few acres to sustain a man indefinitely.

The social problems of a serious disaster will be orders of magnitude worse for you big city dwellers. If the delivery trucks stop rolling in, and the water stops running, and the electricity goes out for a few days, there will be millions of people who get really desperate really fast. If the garbage trucks and sewers stop working, your once clean and healthy city will quickly start to fester. If law and order ceases, your inner city savages will cause untold trouble.

If you wanna stick it out under those conditions, that's your prerogative. Doesn't seem like an especially smart idea to me.

Good luck!

 

[Lou629]

Again, as we say in Tony Soprano-land; Fuhgheddaboudit!
I agree with you, millions of people will get "really desperate really fast", and most of them and most of that will be happening out on the roadways locally. If you don't know the area, trust me on this.
I am fortunate to live outside the 'inner-city' core, I'm more in the 'burbs over here, but i would still have to use the same highways that all the millions of others would in an emergency. No thanks. I'll take my chances if the feces hits the fan with no prior warnings or notice and just stay put, while a lot of them will probably die trapped in their cars. Give me 24-36 hours of warning, and i will be long gone, agreed, but not with a surprise event, no sir.
I'm sure ymmv out there in the country, but it's a bad idea locally. If i lived 'out there' somewhere, i'd probably stay put too, not as much reason to run as you say, but over here running will be everybodys' first idea and, in a surprise event, the net result will be gridlock and mass casualties. Wish i lived in Indiana! or was still in my home state of Pa. Best of luck to you too, just in case!
Edit, spell/typo. 5/25

 

[DRZinn]

HTG, you're assuming that all those greedy neighbors will know what I've got.

Anyway, in rush hour traffic speed averages about 25 mph. In a disaster situation 25 would be a dream. The nearest ways East from me are 30 miles south or north. West is the ocean. Wanna go 30 miles on a southern California highway after the SHTF? And that's just to get to the I-8 or I-10, they'd still be jammed for many miles east.

 

[NineseveN]

Loading up the car? Well, considering my SHTF plans include going into moderately deep seclusion in the thick, it makes very little sense to me to tote anything in the car that I cannot carry with me once I ditch the car. Maybe some extra food and water for the short trip to tens upon tens of thousands of acres of mountains, streams, lakes and wood...but that's about it. Maybe an extra firearm (auto loading rifle) just in case of a road barrier/block/skirmish that was I don't dip into my SHTF load.

I guess to me, I'm gonna plan around what I can carry...and I don't have anything sentimental enough to me that doesn't breathe that I'd need to take with me.

 

[MudPuppy]

When the Rita scare hit after katrina, there were thousands of people in Texas that bugged out and were bumper to bumper from houston to d/fw and san antonio.

Just the other morning a 18wheeler got sideways on the interstate--it was a parking lot. Feeder roads...packed. Little side road that only i know about with 2 low water crosses were backed up about 3 miles.

Shot big holes in my "keep the motor home ready to go" plan. Although, at least it has a potty, water, fridge, etc. But parked amongst the rest of central texas, I'm not sure how long till someone would want to share.

Either way, it won't be purty.

 

[Lou629]

Mudpuppy....

Since i'm stuck up here in NJ, if y'all would be so kind as to stop by Gaines Ranch Loop and pick up my parents on your way out of town, i'd sure 'preciate it amigo.

 

[goon]

I guess like anything else, it all depends on your environment. I have been looking at this too. I have had a bit of an interest in this for awhile now (guess it comes with participating in forums like this) but the whole mess in New Orleans really got me thinking. Some of the ideas rattling around in my head...
1. It is good to have somewhere to run to.
2. Alot of the stuff I have would become expendable. If it doesn't feed me, keep me warm, or keep people from butchering me, I would have just about no use for it. Following that logic, why spend a whole lot of money on that stuff? Better off to spend it on ammo.
3. How many guns do I need? I think I could do with two (centerfire rifle and a centerfire handgun) if I had to carry everything and be pretty well set. That doesn't mean that I am ever actually going to get down to two, but it does mean that having a half dozen guns around just because they are cool doesn't make sense. My Mosin Nagants and some others have been sold and my SKS will soon be on the block. No point in having rifles that you can't take with you. I would just be leaving weapons and ammo for someone who could use them against me. If not that, as I said before, better off spending it on ammo, water, and Bush's baked beans. An extra rifle rusting in the corner does me no good at all when I am dehydrated.
4. Given my experiences with different vehicles, older is better. Yes, a 302 Ford engine will burn more gas than your little fuel injected 4 cylinder. But what happens when something goes wrong with your 2006 Wondercar? Eventhough you could theoretically fix it, I have found that they are just a whole lot more complicated. If you have an '80-something F-150 with a spare alternator, belts, and an extra radiator hose, odds are that you won't run into a problem that you can't fix yourself. They are generally a much more mechanical breed of beast. Take the bad part off, bolt the good one on, and away you go.
Complicated is bad. Simple is good. Older is simpler. Therefore, old is good.
5. Wear comfortable shoes.

 

[Byron Quick]

If things get really bad for an extended period, I'm not too confident about individuals, families, or small groups survivability out in the boondocks. Got a group put together for protection out in your well defended hidden bunker? How many doctors and nurses? Just what can they handle in the bunker?
And the list of point failures due to lack of skilled and trained personnel in small groups goes on and on and on.

I don't live in a city. I won't live in a city. So I don't have to evacuate from a city. Same thing with coastal areas. Earthquake prone areas, etc.

I live in a small town with relatives available. Agricultural county. Food. Fuel from biomass. Good hunting. Doctors. Not close to targets even if they are hit. Not close to probable likely targets. Far enough from the coast that even a monster hurricane directly hitting the area won't be catastrophic by the time it gets here.

So, I'm not going anywhere further than a relative's house to borrow some tool I don't have. Will probably still be able to work in whatever health care is available. I'll work for barter or even for an IOU of assistance as needed.

Nuclear plant twelve miles away. Early on, I'll be trying to organize for its defense, continued operation, and maintenance. Recovery will occur first in areas with electricity if the SHTF that severely on a widespread scale.

I'll stick with a small community that has the capability of hunkering down and surviving...as a community. Odds are much better for me and mine than hitting the road for some supposed sanctuary that is probably going to be inundated with very hungry and very desperate survivors from cities where it was really bad. Pretty sure the local NG unit can handle that. Won't have to drop but four or five small bridges to control access to the county by road.

My plan has more to do with getting back here if something happens while I'm away. My emergency setup is modular. Stage I is the vehicle supplies. Stage II is the mountain bike and trailer when it's apparent that Stage I must be abandoned. Stage III is the feet and carrying a ruck. A ruck is taken off from time to time. Stage IV are absolutely basic and essential survival items that can be carried at all times....even while sleeping. Just in case something happens that requires bugging out RIGHT NOW!...not even taking time to throw on the ruck Don't carry water beyond a Camelbak. Carry a Katadyn filter. Live in a very well watered area.

I watch current events closely. I watch weather predictions and trends closely. I adjust travel accordingly. In late August 2005, if I had been going to Texas to visit friends, I would have been heading west on I40 not I10.

Same as nightspots, I listen to news and scuttlebutt, I don't go to trouble prone places. Considering New Madrid fault activity, I probably won't head west on I-40 in the future. Won't see me on I-10 heading west either, if there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean.

I prefer not to hang out at targets...whether natural or perhaps a target for man made grief. The coastal areas and earthquake zones are uninhabitable territory as far as I'm concerned. I will visit the coast...dependent on the weather report, of course. I don't visit earthquake zones. Well, the 1886 Charleston earthquake was felt in this area. It might have knocked a brick chimney over around here. Hurricane Hugo was still raising Cain when it got this far inland north of here in South Carolina. About the only damage to houses was if a tree fell on it, though.

If you live outside of cities, away from the coast, and outside of zones that will probably be hit by strong earthquakes, you'd probably be better off staying put in an area where you can count on assistance from your neighbors.

So, I'll still be able to draw on the resources of this community. Pretty good supply. Good chance of retaining electricity for several years. Health care. Farmers. Mechanics. Machinists. Hunting. Optometrists. Hundreds of needed skills that I don't have to either learn, obtain the tools, or do without. Just ask around,"How can I get this done?" "Who has this for trade?" "What do they need?" "I've credit built up at the hospital and Dr. So and So's office, think they need health care or would like to open an account against future need?"

It's good to have somewhere to run to...granted. It's better to not have to run. Cities are dependent on the transportation net for food much less everything else. Small towns in agricultural areas are not if forced to be self sufficient. I'll stay in the small town. Rather than the mountain cabin, it would be a good investment to find a small town that's not in the evacuation envelope of cities and develop some connections there...enough to be accepted at need. Caution, simply owning a cabin and a small piece of property in the area might not get you past the roadblocks. It will depend on how many destitute refugees have tried to get in and what skills you can contribute to the community. Lacking desirable skills, it will be very important to have strong connections in that community...more important than owning property there. Lacking valuable skills or strong local connections, you might be handed more paper money than you paid for your property and told,"We just bought it back in accordance with county ordinance 52-338...now hit the road." Very good chance that the local militia will have much more-and heavier-firepower at the roadblocks than your entire group possesses...making your weapons a very poor choice under the circumstances.

Firearms and ammunition are good things to have in an emergency. In a SHTF situation, whipping out a community is going to heighten the odds of your survival tremendously, though. I'll take both.

As far as the "if I can't eat it, use it for immediate survival, or shoot with it...why do I need it?" philosophy goes-if things get bad and stay bad, items such as hand tools will be invaluable items for trade. Skill with those tools will be even more valuable. That anvil, hammers, and tongs plus the knowledge to use them to repair other tools could be your ticket to admittance to a sanctuary-and survival. I seriously doubt a self sufficient community will be interested in admitting you for your armament and ammunition.

 

[DRZinn]

Some of us don't have a choice, yet, of where to live.

 

[Byron Quick]

Some of us don't have a choice, yet, of where to live.

This is the most important factor in survival. The only inhabitants of Pompeii who survived the catastrophic eruption of Mount Vesuvius can be grouped into two sets: those who happened to be out of town and those who had moved elsewhere. No inhabitant survived due to owning an arsenal, wealth, or power. Sometimes the sole route to survival is to not be there when catastrophe occurs.

I could make much more money in my profession in Southern California. Employers could pay ten times as much there and you wouldn't see me in Southern California. You couldn't give me a mansion on the slopes of Mt. St. Helen...not if a conditiion was I had to live there or even visit one day.

Your vacation home at the beach is in the same category to me. Honey trap for your family and friends. The single most effective tactic to survive natural disaster or terrorist attack is to identify possible problem areas and avoid being there.

 

[Low-Sci]

Well around here, a natural disaster is most likely to manifest itself in the form of a tornado. It would have to hit highly populated areas, like downtown, and to cause sufficient damage that I would have to leave the area on foot (which was the original premise), it would have to be a pretty good tornado.

I suppose a blizzard that broke a multitude of records and came unannounced could have the same disabling effect.

To me the term "run" means physically, with your two legs. Obviously if you had a choice you'd take a vehicle, but if the question was "how much can you run with" you're limited by what you can physically carry on your person, not how much trunk space you have.

Least that's how I see it.

 

[Byron Quick]

You might need to stay in Wisconsin Down here, when people talk about running down to the mall, you might get a mite winded before you discover that the mall is thirty miles away.

Same thing with "cut left here." They're not telling you to slash to the left at a certain point. It will mean "Turn left right now."

 

[Manedwolf]

The only inhabitants of Pompeii who survived the catastrophic eruption of Mount Vesuvius can be grouped into two sets: those who happened to be out of town and those who had moved elsewhere. No inhabitant survived due to owning an arsenal, wealth, or power. Sometimes the sole route to survival is to not be there when catastrophe occurs.

Add another group to that...those that owned boats and those closest to the harbor.

If you read the histories, the fishing vessels, private luxury vessels and cargo ships bugged out in a hell of a hurry as soon as the eruption began, many carrying as many people as they could. Pliny the Elder, whose histories are well-known, brought a ship in to rescue a friend whose villa was at the foot of the mountain. He even described people having tied pillows to their heads with napkins as cushion against hails of falling volcanic pebbles.

Ran out of boats, though, most of the bodies have been found at the harbor or trying to get to the harbor, where they apparently were hoping more ships would be sent by the Empire, by their relatives, or (for the wealthy) their companies or clients to rescue them.

Sound familiar?