I don't know about simulations or statistics. I based my opinion on what I've seen in my line of work involving events that transpired in an urban/apartment setting.
One critical point of using statistics of real world crime and self defense data is to identify when an individual’s limited observations occur because they are limited, or because they are a true trend.
In your case, the former.
We all want to think retention is better for handguns than long guns because attackers SHOULD have less opportunity to gain control of the firearm, but in real world conflicts, this does not play out for small statured women against more powerful attackers, especially those insufficiently trained and insufficiently practiced.
I have to venture that tens of thousands of small statured women are handling common AR carbines every day. They’re not so heavy, and for most folks finding a 7lb AR too heavy (lack of training and lack of familiarity, or legitimate disability), cutting it down to 5.5lbs really won’t make a substantial shift.
Also of note in this discussion - women tend to be smarter at managing men than men give them credit. “It’s too heavy, I’m not comfortable” is a very common, polite way a woman will tell a man “I don’t want to do this,” without the consequence of the male retort, “but you have to, because it might save your life,” where they get stuck still doing the thing they didn’t want to do. We’ve all seen the videos or maybe experienced in person young kids, even young girls, and small statured women running and gunning with AR’s, even small women running around with 20lb PRS rifles… more often than not, “the gun is too big” or “it’s too heavy” is a means to say “I don’t want to do this, don’t make me,” but without eliciting conflict.