Threat assessment.

[P95Carry]

Twoblink's post got me to thinking ...... just how hard it might be making a rational and accurate threat assessment. After all .. it is that which predicates further action, whether retreating or feeling the need to defend. Plus - decisions need made fast usually.

On the one hand we have perhaps, the car full of punks .. intent in fact on little more than harrassment of others ... scaring the hell out of them for kicks - with no actual intention of doing harm per se.

Then there might be the two guys, who look relatively noraml and unthreatening .. until very close at hand - when maybe they launch an attack.

Obviously any and every situation can only be assessed individually but ..... this interests me to know other's broad take. No one wants to be paranoid about things .... gets tiring! But, whilst practicing our ubiquitous ''situational awareness'' ..... is there any way to improve assessment, that some of us may not have thought of.

I think input could be both useful to all as well as interesting and in our case, we'll assume for the most part we are carrying, or if not, at lease armed with a blade.

 

[JamisJockey]

If someone is one step ahead of you, they will get the upper hand.
I always look for things and people that might be out of place, and try and figure out why. I also try not to appear to be much of a target, dressing down and not carrying expensive things. I always assume ill intent from anyone I don't know, and work my way down from there.
Just my strategy, I can't wait to hear some more responses.

 

[mattx109]

"Out of place" is a big, big part of it. Whether or not you have training in recognizing behaviors that indicate deception or potential threats, there's a good chance you'll just get that uneasy feeling that something isn't right. For some it's itchy forearms, or the oft-quoted hair on the back of the neck, but it could be just about anything, I suppose. For me it's always been a light burn on my cheeks, presumably from a slightly increased heart rate.

Most poeple have experienced this before. Maybe when a fight was brewing in public or some similar situation. That was covered at least in part in the post you linked.

As far as evaluating the threat, there's one simple rule: Avoidance. If something feels wrong, get away; you won't have to worry about proper threat assessment after that, and the best way to survive a conflict is to be somewhere else.

The two examples you mentioned (the car full of punks looking for kicks and the two BGs playing it cool), I don't know if I can help you much. Most people are probably going to be nervous and scared if confronted by the punks; they have numbers, and they're aggressive. They're obviously going to get your attention, but general experience with senseless morons will probably tell you that you don't need to draw. As for the two BGs, they're probably going to show some signs of preparation; it takes a pretty good amount of experience or self-control to do otherwise.

Clenching fists or jaws, shifting eyes, sudden relaxation after a period of muscular tension, sudden calming of the voice after former aggravation, and others can indicate an imminent threat. There are decent books out there on that stuff.

As for improving situational awareness, just practice. Take up people watching as a hobby. The more you study how ordinary people act in ordinary situations, the better you'll be at noticing when things are out of the ordinary.

And I, too, am interested in the coming responses.

 

[Blackhawk 6]

While studying the subtle body language/mannerisms can be very interesting, I do not think that it really requires that much study. You have thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, of experiences with normal human interaction/behavior. You will know when something is "not right" and you should act accordingly. In my opinion, people do not miss pre-assault cues because they are not educated on what they are but rather because they are not paying attention to what is going on around them or they fail to trust their instincts when they do experience something that isn't right.

 

[esheato]

I noticed a recurring theme in the previous posts. A lot of talk about that "gut-feeling." Some people follow it, and some don't....but I have a gut feeling that the ones that don't are most often the victims.


esheato....

 

[foghornl]

When the little guy in your gut is throwing a kicking fit, it is time to pay attention to just exactly what is going down around you.

You ignore Mr. Intestinal Temper Tantrum at your own peril.

 

[P95Carry]

I certainly agree regarding ''gut feeling'' ... it is an instinct we most have and should take note of. I guess tho there has to be a balance, in as much as .... if a guy is spending all his time at ''orange'' thru paranoia then maybe too his ''gut feeling'' response is so heightened that he sees way too much as threat.

The awareness factor is, as we have discussed many times .... probably the key to getting this right - or at least, having a fair chance to do so. Physically relaxed but mentally alert.

Probably one of my main thought avenues is that good assessment is desirable, in order to come up with (hopefully) the best and quickest course of action ..... such that over-reaction is avoided while not responding too late to save the bacon!!

 

[TrapperReady]

If you want to improve on situational awareness, get some classes and ride a motorcycle for a while. You are just about the most vulnerable thing on the road, and there are potential threats everywhere. The key thing is that you constantly plan your reactions to emerging situations. That way, if something happens, you don't freeze, you just act.

Also, it teaches you to constatly scan your surroundings and look for those little things... patterns in the traffic ahead, a small shiny dark spot on the road, loose gravel in the corner, etc... When first learning, you are either going to be oblivious to the dangers (hopefully not), or nervous and exhausted from the degree of concentration required. However, after a while, it becomes second nature.

Oh yeah...

Motorcycling can also show you that you can do everything almost 100% right, and still end up injured or dead. It's just a reality.

 

[ThreadKiller]

Do they appear to be focussing an inordinate amount of attention on you even though they act disinterested? Just got to be alert and aware of your surroundings.

 

[P95Carry]

Motorcycling can also show you that you can do everything almost 100% right, and still end up injured or dead. It's just a reality.

Too right TR ....... sometimes for some people it's a case of ''if the bullet has your name on it'' ... sorta metaphor!

I have ridden most of my life .. probably in mileage terms ridden round the world several times! It does indeed sharpen you considerably. For instance reading of road surface ....... and watching others real close. It is particularly re biking that I use these two ''reminders'' for awareness ..... and I don't apologise for repeating them either ......



''DON'T assume''

''Expect the unexpected''



I think those two things can help save your a** possibly.

 

[Starpower]

Threat assessment

The only time that old "gut feeling" isn't 100% useful is when you are looking for hard evidence to use in court. Even then, it can lead you to something you can use. Just be careful about getting "the cart before the horse."
Any other time, you trained and honed instincts are good and useful. Use them.

 

[Leatherneck]

Perhaps the attitude I tried to hone throughout a career flying/testing jets applies here. Always have an escape planned. Make it instinctive. Get real uncomfortable when the inevitable happens and your best escape route gets compromised--get away from that situation as fast as possible. In other words, live in condition orange. As you get used to it, it's not that difficult.

TC
TFL Survivor

 

[orangeninja]

I feel a threat

whenever I am uncomfortable looking someone in the eyes. If making eye contact takes effort, there is a reason. Pay attention. Other wise I tend to listen for things out of place and look for things out of place. Listening is very underated and I don't think I have heard it discussed. For instance,

1. Fast foot steps and low voice talking.

2. Measured footsteps.

3. Verbal indications towards you by people you don't know in secluded strange surroundings.

4. Things that go bump in the night...but you're the only one home.

5. A group of people who suddenly stop talking and start looking when you get near, not your kids, people you DONT know...etc.

Visual is also a good indicator.

1. People who pay too much attention to you.

2. People who make prolonged eye contact with you while not offering any kind of nod or greeting.

3. Slow moving vehicles...etc.

Then of course there is the 6th sense. In my case my head either starts pounding or my mouth goes dry or I get this anxious feeling in my chest. Sometimes all three.