Understanding The Ammo Shortage

[bri]

What meets your criteria?

Long term investments - Well placed homes, precious metals, long-term market commodities, etc.

There are loads of investments, most of them don't actually pan out well, that is why investing is a hard way to make a living (otherwise why work?).

I wouldn't say 'most' when referring to long-term investment. Many things people invest in short-term, yes.

Hopefully people are not borrowing money to buy ammo.

This is the USA, I'd bet a whole bunch of people have racked up the credit card with firearms and ammunition over the past few months. Sad.

 

[Tcruse]

"Buyers" are not setting the market price at Walmart. Walmart is selling at prices WAY below the intersection of the supply and demand curves (e.g. 9MM for $21.xx/100 is way below market by any measure).

Their below-market pricing continues to justify the hoarders and provides the gunshow resellers with a supply of cheap ammo that they can mark-up 2x-3x or more. Both types camp Walmart at restocking time and call in their family and friends to buy up everything they came, leaving little to nothing for "normal" people. This is just continues to distort the market slows down the return to any sort of normalcy.

The regulars that camp out early at my local Walmart are all shooters and shoot what they buy. Now, anyone that was buying to re-sale would get a lot of flack from the rest of us.

 

[JohnBT]

"What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it?"

Ten years? I'm 62 and I'm planning on living longer than that. I wish I had 20 years' worth. Heck, my dad was 89 when he died in 2011. I might need 30.

 

[joeschmoe]

"What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it?"

Enjoy for 10 years while prices keep rising. Just like I have. Then buy more.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

It may get interesting when the panic is over. What will the idiots with a ten year supply do with it? Not buy any for ten years, or dump it at gun shows and Craig's list?

I look at it this way;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyY-6oh0Ow8

As I sat there on my sack of ammunition. Ya'll drive carefully and come back now ya'll here.

Buy more ammo. That's what they will do.


Here's the deal. The moment the purchase limits come off is the moment people will place multi case orders and we will be right back where we are today. Going forward instead of buying a few boxes people will be buying a few cases. UPS and FedEx are going to experience a spike in shipments. I know I intend to give my UPS and FedEx guys a serious work out as soon as I can order by the case.

 

[Gato Montés]

I know I intend to give my UPS and FedEx guys a serious work out as soon as I can order by the case.

I don't believe that will be the case for most buyers. Undoubtedly you and a small minority burned in this last run will do just that, buy in bulk asap, but most shooter's consumption habits were buy for immediate use and it will continue that way. Most gun owners do not shoot as much as you or I, maybe a couple times a year. For them a full box of ammo for each gun they own sufficed and given the amount they shoot they will be satisfied with far less than what we would deem suitable.

My buddy's dad came home with a Buckmark a couple weeks ago. He told me his dad was upset because he couldn't try it out with no ammo available so I went over a dropped off 300 rounds of Mini Mags, a mere bread crumb from my supply. He spent an hour at the range and shot exactly 73 rounds, that was it. Hell, he wanted to give me the other two boxes back cause "he didn't need them." Told him to hold on to them, but that's exactly the mindset I get from most gun owners; not their primary hobby, just want a box or two kept around in case they want to go out shooting. There are also those who will simply just give up because to them it's not worth the trouble.

So between the easily satisfied and the easily dissuaded, it's only a matter of waiting out the storm of which I'm not so pessimistic its duration. I say early Fall we'll be looking back at this and laughing, crazy mass shootings/gun control legislation aside.

 

[CSG]

I first became a hoarder during the clinton years while living in California. It was still easy to get bulk ammo via vendors advertising in Shotgun News. I laid in a supply of 9mm and .38 which were the two calibers I shot most of. After leaving the state in '94 and getting my first couple AR's, I did the same with 5.56. Then, I bought a reloading press and laid in components. Of any caliber I shoot, I never have less than 600-700 loaded rounds and for .22, after a few years ago, I have 15 times that as I can't reload it. IF and when things ease up, I plan to add 5-10k case lots of .22 and at least another 2k of 5.56 (too much of a nuisance to reload).

I have room to store it and I don't think the grabbers are going anywhere (although they get no purchase in my state). I know a number of other shooters who feel as I do - we won't be fooled (caught short) again.

 

[we are not amused]

so you really think the people with a 10 year supply are idiots?

Yes.

 

[jeff-10]

Yes.

How can people who purchased an asset that is both useful and has appreciated considerably considered idiots? If those people hadn't purchased way more ammo than they have shot in the past, then the ammunition manufacturers wouldn't have the capacity they do today.

 

[joeschmoe]

Market price 10 years ago ($8) is what people with a bulk supply are paying to shoot now. People with a 1 month supply are paying today's market price ($20-$80).

Which is the idiot in this situation?

 

[Potatohead]

im no genius but ive gotta side with the stock enough up for ten years guys here

 

[coolluke01]

There are two different kinds of 10 year supply stockers. The first are those that bought when prices were low in years past. The second (and the dumb ones who are helping the ammo crisis) are buying 9mm for $20 a box, and .223 @ $1 a round. They are the morons IMHO.
The stocked, however should not bash the unstocked. Not everyone was able to stock enough for 10 years.

 

[sage5907]

No one has said it here but I think many gun owners are afraid of what the Federal Government will do with the 2nd Amendment. A big part of the Country went to sleep and look what they did with health care! The less populated states can't compete politically with the population centers like California, New York and Illinois. Buying ammunition is just a part of the concern initiated by the debate over gun control.

 

[jeff-10]

There are two different kinds of 10 year supply stockers. The first are those that bought when prices were low in years past. The second (and the dumb ones who are helping the ammo crisis) are buying 9mm for $20 a box, and .223 @ $1 a round. They are the morons IMHO.
The stocked, however should not bash the unstocked. Not everyone was able to stock enough for 10 years.

I have to agree that buying any ammo you absolutely don't need right now is financially a bad idea because it will likely be much cheaper in a few more months. Ditto for magazines. Although there were at least potential gun and magazine bans on the table, ammo bans/taxes were little more than rumor.

I said the same thing about people buying ARs in January and February. Give it six months and pick them up cheap.

I've always been very selective about buying ammo and magazines. If I see a good deal, I'll jump on it regardless of how much I have. Its why I have so much 9mm FMJ and 40 S&W JHP. I have found so many good deals on those types of rounds over the year, I've purchased more than I need.

Guns on the other hand I am unfortunately much more of a impulse buyer. :/

 

[Alizard]

No one has said it here but I think many gun owners are afraid of what the Federal Government will do with the 2nd Amendment. A big part of the Country went to sleep and look what they did with health care!

That non-sequitur defines the core of the ammo panic. The SCOTUS just AFFIRMED the 2A in their DC v. Heller decision.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_of_Columbia_v._Heller


period. NOBODY is going to "take the guns" unless and until they can pack the court with enough judges who will REVERSE standing law and go against the constitution by overturning the DC v. Heller decision.

last time I checked the constitution did not have any amendments specifically addressing the manner in which the country will supply health care for it's citizens, so that is an irrelevant comparison.

Buying ammunition is just a part of the concern initiated by the debate over gun control.

The ammo panic is an offshoot of the generalized stampede that has arisen among people who really have no clue exactly how and why the first AWB passed... if they did they would know those conditions do not exist now and likely never will again. There is no GOP force the size and power of Ronald Reagan who would knock back the NRA and twist enough arms to swing th votes needed to get an AWB passed. That's how it passed in '94. Right now, Obama could not get an eskimo to take a free snow blower. he can't even align the votes in his own party, and the GOP has about a 30 vote majority in the House.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/how-ronald-reagan-passed-the-assault-weapon-ban

The people who ran screaming when the dems started whining about the AWB really created the panic.

 

[sage5907]

Alizard, just in case you haven't noticed the price of health insurance is up about 30% since Obama took office in 2008 and the price of ammunition is up about 30% since Obama asked for gun legislation. There is a relationship between our daily lives and the politics of the day.

 

[orionengnr]

NOBODY is going to "take the guns" unless and until they can pack the court with enough judges who will REVERSE standing law and go against the constitution by overturning the DC v. Heller decision.

Nobody needs to "pack the Court with enough judges..." Most Supreme Court decisions go 5-4 one way or another.

In case you didn't notice, "somebody" got to appoint two during his first term. One more, and everything is up for grabs.

 

[jon_in_wv]

The source of the ammo shortage was simply a surge in demand by new gun owners. I'm guessing somewhere in the range of 5 million new gun owners. This increased demand to the point shortages developed. Add to that the experiences of past shortages current gun owners had experienced and you get a demand that cannot be sastified.

Well that can't be true. The mainstream media has been reporting that gun ownership is WAY down since enlightened people all realize there is no need for firearms in a peaceful and enlightened society like ours. They further state that only right wing kooks are buying up all the firearms so only a few crazy people actually have them. You know, white republicans who are afraid of black people. I wish you gun zealots would stop spreading lies and standing in the way of progress.

Note: For those unable to detect sarcasm, all the above is sarcasm.

 

[orionengnr]

There is no GOP force the size and power of Ronald Reagan who would knock back the NRA and twist enough arms to swing th votes needed to get an AWB passed. That's how it passed in '94.

Seriously, where did you learn your history???? Your education is seriously lacking. If this is what they are teaching in high school these days, I understand how the Big O got elected...twice.

For the record, the GOP was not in power in 94--Bill Clinton was the President, and the Democrats had both houses of Congress. That is how the AWB passed.
Reagan's last year in office was '88. Okay, technically, his last day was Jan 19, 1989.

Your statements about the Supreme Court and the Heller decision display a similar (and equally dire) lack of knowledge. Next time, please do some homework and avoid embarrassing yourself.

 

[sage5907]

The current political situation is all about power politics and the President and the Senate Democrats are making a serious charge at the 2nd Amendment status quo. Each of the small New England states who isn't gun friendly has 2 Senators who can vote the wishes of the Administration. This small geographical highly populated area is trying to use the tail to wag the dog. The situation is further complicated by the additional votes of the Senators from the left coast. Although the Democrats in the Senate didn't have enough votes to pass the legislation they haven't forgotten where they are going.

 

[Ignition Override]

we are not amused: Please sign me up for the idiot club membership if somebody knows who the secretary is. The thin plastic card might fit into my wallet. Mensa will never accept my membership.

These 9,800 rds. of centerfire ammo might only last five years, instead of ten.
If the gun bug had bitten Before '07 (age 52), I would have bought some much cheaper .303, .308 and x39 for the long-term.

Those ammo cans don't include 1,000 rds. of M2 Ball just ordered from the CMP to extra 'contingency fuel'. Will be a denser, happier Dummkopf mit einem grosseren Haufen von Patronen.

 

[rcmodel]

I am here to report that the hording frenzy is still in full swing locally.

A friend called me yesterday to report he & his wife bought the last six boxes (3 box limit) of .40 S&W at Wal-Mart Sunday morning at 6:30 AM.
He was super excited about it.

So, I ask him when he got a .40 S&W pistol?

And he said he didn't get one, and had no plans to get one!! :banghead:

rc

 

[Potatohead]

i didnt know Reagan was in office in 94.....oh yea, thats when he got in trouble for Watergate, right after he ended WW2 by dropping the bomb i believe..

 

[sage5907]

Sir Isaac Newton should have added a 30% rule that applies to American Politics as follows: When the cost of food is up 30%, when food stamp participation is up 30%, when health care costs are up 30%, when the price of gasoline is up 30%, when the cost of a college education is up 30%, when gun ownership is up 30%, then ammunition purchases will be up 30%. Think about it!

 

[Alizard]

Seriously, where did you learn your history???? Your education is seriously lacking. If this is what they are teaching in high school these days, I understand how the Big O got elected...twice.

OK, irrelevant but shows your focus.

For the record, the GOP was not in power in 94--Bill Clinton was the President, and the Democrats had both houses of Congress. That is how the AWB passed

I see... so it's a grand conspiracy including lying GOP representative who was quoted as saying:

The vote on the assault weapon ban was contentious and barely passed the House of Representatives. At least two members of the House of Representatives credited Reagan with influencing their votes. The bill passed 216-214, a margin of two votes.

Congressman Scott Klug, a Republican from Wisconsin was an opponent of the assault weapon ban and the day before the vote stated his opposition to the ban. Klug only changed his vote after "a last minute plea from President Reagan" in the form of a handwritten note.

Another former Congressman, New Hampshire Democrat Dick Swett, also credited the former President with influencing his vote. Swett was unsure of how to vote on the ban, but made up his made after direct lobbying from Reagan.

You can do the math?

Your statements about the Supreme Court and the Heller decision display a similar (and equally dire) lack of knowledge. Next time, please do some homework and avoid embarrassing yourself.

Physician, heal thyself.