So everyone wants to know when things are going to get back to normal regarding ammo availability and prices. My answer to the last part of the question is never. We all know that the secondary market, also known as "scalpers", will dry up and go away once ammo becomes more available or, more precisely, demand calms down. But, in case you haven't noticed, prices are going up. Those aren't coming back down, EVER. In all of these other ammo threads, one point most people seem to miss is that smart people are standing in line at Wal-mart at 5 O'clock in the morning to buy ammo at today's prices because it WILL be more expensive down the road. A couple of examples. Before the shortage Federal 9mm, 100 count packs at Wal-mart were 19.99, it is now up to $21.99 and I predict it will go up further. Winchester 20 packs of 223 were about $5 before and are $12 now. Now, the most recent hike is in Federals 325 count boxes of 22 ammo. Last week they were selling for $14.47 and this morning, $19.99. I don't shop at Dicks very often but recently I have noticed 20 count boxes of 9mm Federal at $32/20. Yes it is premium ammo but you can buy the same ammo at Wally world for just over $20, or at least you could. Last point, in case you don't believe that prices won't come back to normal, regardless of what metal prices do, think back to just before the last shortage, 5 years ago. That same box of Federal 9mm was $15.99. By the way, supplies won't get back to normal,meaning you can go into any shop, any day of the week, and buy any popular caliber, for at least another year, probably longer. No, I don't have a crystal ball, just a good memory.
Welcome to the new "Normal" another ammo thread
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oneounceload
member
Ammo and gun makers typically raise their prices in the spring of each year; sometimes in the spring and fall - been doing it way before any panic or ban threat, so going up 10%? With the threat of Obamacare going to cost everyone in the ammo supply chain major bucks, prices are only going to go higher - and that is just one factor, the almost worthless US dollar is another
People said the same thing about the last shortage. It wasn't true then. It probably won't be true now. I was actually buying bricks of .22 cheaper in 2011 than I did in 2008 before the election. It was quite a bit cheaper in fact. I bought a lot for either $11 a brick or $12 a brick. It was either Winchester or Blazer usually with some Federal. I'm not talking a short brick with 325 or 333 rounds either. I'm talking 500 or 525 or 550 rounds. .45 ammo went up then came back down lower than what it was too for some types of ammo.
Prices have gone up more this time but that doesn't mean they won't come down again. Some ammo never went up nearly as much this time like 7.62 x 39. It got up to $10 a box for 20 rounds in a lot of places in 2008-2009. I've not seen it get anywhere near that level this time around. .380 disappeared completely in 2009. It hasn't done that this time. It might be expensive but I've seen it around sometimes. I bought some not that long ago.
Ignition Override
Member
.25/rd. for modern 7.62x39, .20/rd. for 7.62x54R and approx. .18/round for surplus 5.45x39 is pretty normal,
similar to prices one-two years ago, if not the same. "Gunbot". One solution is to always have the right gun.
Life is too short to spend time/lost sleep hanging around Walmart. Walmart should allow .22LR to rise to market levels, so that the flippers lose their incentive.
Remembering Pink Floyd in "The Dark Side Of The Moon", in stark contrast to some lyrics in the song "Time", you never wait for "the starting gun...", because with ammo it is already too late, for a good while.
You bought multiple cases of centerfire and a few bricks of rimfire when there was some cash. You have no need for these tactics: where/when to make a redeye entry into ChinaMart for rimfire ammo, timed sort of like the late (SEAL) Chris Kyle breaking into Fallujah/Ramadi houses to arrest or 'zap' insurgents.
similar to prices one-two years ago, if not the same. "Gunbot". One solution is to always have the right gun.
Life is too short to spend time/lost sleep hanging around Walmart. Walmart should allow .22LR to rise to market levels, so that the flippers lose their incentive.
Remembering Pink Floyd in "The Dark Side Of The Moon", in stark contrast to some lyrics in the song "Time", you never wait for "the starting gun...", because with ammo it is already too late, for a good while.
You bought multiple cases of centerfire and a few bricks of rimfire when there was some cash. You have no need for these tactics: where/when to make a redeye entry into ChinaMart for rimfire ammo, timed sort of like the late (SEAL) Chris Kyle breaking into Fallujah/Ramadi houses to arrest or 'zap' insurgents.
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Not around here. Around here they've been falling recently and are still falling as far as I can tell.
Around here, Wal-Mart's prices on 9mm have stayed more or less constant throughout the shortage. That's why people line up for hours to buy it and resell it elsewhere to panicked people willing to pay 3x what it's really worth.
It's the local gun stores and the gun show vendors who have jacked up their prices, but availability is getting better, and as it gets better, the prices at the local gun shops are coming back down to pre-shortage levels.
Around here, availability has improved dramatically in just the last few weeks. All the gun stores I've been in the last couple of weeks have everything they would have normally stocked pre-shortage except for .22LR.
In Twin Falls Idaho all the ammo is back at our local Sportsman's warehouse. They even have everything at pre-panic prices. EX: .223/5.56 at $8 a box. Ammo is not being boughten up by the armful anymore.
Even .22 is around. I picked up 300 rounds of Winchester Super X, I was even late for the line!
Even .22 is around. I picked up 300 rounds of Winchester Super X, I was even late for the line!
Last boxes of Federal AutoMatch I bought at Walmart, the guy told me the price of this shipment had dropped $1 a box.
The local gun shop has unlimited supplies of 223 (cheaper than Walmart), took his purchasing limits on it off 2 months ago, and has had to cut back on his orders as it's piling up.
He joked and said he was going to have to put his purchasing limits back on in order to boost sales!
I listen to a lot of gun related podcasts - here's a few tidbits I've gotten recently by some industry insiders:
1. With the war(s) winding down, a lot of production that once served the military is now freed up for commercial sales. One show had an interview with the CEO of a major powder manufacturer (sorry, don't recall the name), that said, like others in the business, he's been afraid to make major expansions as they don't know if what we are seeing is a bubble or the new normal AFA purchasing.
2. Many ammo makers (I remember Winchester, Remington, Armscor mentioned) have finally decided when demand does taper off, it's not going to be a bubble bursting. They are basing this on reports by folks such as S&W that 33% or so of new gun warranty registrations are by first time buyers.
As such, a number of ammo (and gun) makers have finally decided on major expansions - how long it takes for them to come on line is anyone's guess.
beatledog7
Member
Ammo and component makers are apparently still selling as fast as they can produce, and by prevailing accounts are not inflating their margins beyond their pre-SH margins, so they're not the problem. The problem is at the retail level.
Retailers may think they can set prices, but in reality they cannot. Buyers set the price. People who think something is too expensive ought not to be buyers. If they say the price is too high--but buy anyway--then their actions speak more loudly than their words.
To be blunt: If you bought it, then the price was not too high.
What we have to be careful about now is waiting so long to return to the retail ammo market that sellers lose track of pent-up demand. There are lots of people who would not pay the silly prices of the last nine months and, even if they are starting to feel a shortage in their personal inventory, have still not bought ammo in that space of time. They believe this isn't the new normal; they are holding out for the old normal. The demand they are shrouding is absent from the equation until they break down and buy. Long term, that could make manufacturers think the overall market for ammo is smaller than it really is.
The solution lies along the lines of making very small buys when the price of what one needs drops even a little bit, thereby demonstrating that small price drops will still convert holdouts to buyers--but only marginally. That sends the right message: "I'm still here, but I'm not coming back into the market in a significant way until the price comes down some more." If the price does drop a bit more, buy another small amount. And so on.
Retailers can only hold unsold inventory for so long before they are compelled to lower the price of that inventory. But we as the market writ large have to be serious about not buying when the price is too high. As long as we empty the shelves at price X, we will not see price <X. And deservedly so.
Retailers may think they can set prices, but in reality they cannot. Buyers set the price. People who think something is too expensive ought not to be buyers. If they say the price is too high--but buy anyway--then their actions speak more loudly than their words.
To be blunt: If you bought it, then the price was not too high.
What we have to be careful about now is waiting so long to return to the retail ammo market that sellers lose track of pent-up demand. There are lots of people who would not pay the silly prices of the last nine months and, even if they are starting to feel a shortage in their personal inventory, have still not bought ammo in that space of time. They believe this isn't the new normal; they are holding out for the old normal. The demand they are shrouding is absent from the equation until they break down and buy. Long term, that could make manufacturers think the overall market for ammo is smaller than it really is.
The solution lies along the lines of making very small buys when the price of what one needs drops even a little bit, thereby demonstrating that small price drops will still convert holdouts to buyers--but only marginally. That sends the right message: "I'm still here, but I'm not coming back into the market in a significant way until the price comes down some more." If the price does drop a bit more, buy another small amount. And so on.
Retailers can only hold unsold inventory for so long before they are compelled to lower the price of that inventory. But we as the market writ large have to be serious about not buying when the price is too high. As long as we empty the shelves at price X, we will not see price <X. And deservedly so.
Queen_of_Thunder
member
Market levels? Thats what you are getting from gunbroker. You know the ones people are calling gougers, scalpers and flippers. You are seeing the market price for ammo right there, live for all to see. That's what you want?
Double_J
Member
The prices at my local walmart and local gun shop are the same as they have been for 2 years, but the downside is they don't get any shipments in. I am S-L-O-W-L-Y seeing more ammo in walmart, but it is always rifle ammo in calibers that I don't need. I have not seen any pistol ammo in almost 9 months, and very little .223/.308 when it is delivered.
I will not pay scalper prices for ammo by choice. I would rather wait them out, and there are many here in my area who are doing the same thing. We will see ammo return to a normal price and availability sooner or later and hopefully we will see it at a cheaper price.
I will not pay scalper prices for ammo by choice. I would rather wait them out, and there are many here in my area who are doing the same thing. We will see ammo return to a normal price and availability sooner or later and hopefully we will see it at a cheaper price.
Ignition Override
Member
Queen of Thunder: My comments were made with retail store prices in mind, and never suggested 'GunPorker' for ammo.
It's doubtful that large fractions of ammo on Armslist or Gunbroker sell, unless discounted below the seller's base price.
Somebody here might know how to evaluate how much sells on Gunbroker at very inflated prices (much above retail shop prices).
With the SKS my most frequent shooter, the price for 7.62x39 has been back to normal prices for over several weeks.
My next purchase of this will be from Ammoman in a couple of weeks. Would never consider 'GunPorker' for any ammo, but only for a classic milsurp rifle which is never burdened with the problems suffered by the glamorous, chic types.
It's doubtful that large fractions of ammo on Armslist or Gunbroker sell, unless discounted below the seller's base price.
Somebody here might know how to evaluate how much sells on Gunbroker at very inflated prices (much above retail shop prices).
With the SKS my most frequent shooter, the price for 7.62x39 has been back to normal prices for over several weeks.
My next purchase of this will be from Ammoman in a couple of weeks. Would never consider 'GunPorker' for any ammo, but only for a classic milsurp rifle which is never burdened with the problems suffered by the glamorous, chic types.
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I see Walmart has now started putting difficult to remove stickers on their ammo.
If this product is offered for sale at a location other than Walmart, please call 1-800-WALMART.
Glad to see it - maybe it will slow down the flippers in our area.
There is way too much 22 Walmart ammo popping up in local flea markets @ $75 / box.
If this product is offered for sale at a location other than Walmart, please call 1-800-WALMART.
Glad to see it - maybe it will slow down the flippers in our area.
There is way too much 22 Walmart ammo popping up in local flea markets @ $75 / box.
William Boyd
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I'm wondering if the increased number of .22 AR style rifles and semi-auto pistols has not reached the point where the supply of .22 ammo cannot keep up with demand. You just tend to go through a lot more ammo when you are playing war at the range. Also, lots of people have started using .22 pistols, revolvers and rifles for training instead of larger calibers as the cost of larger caliber ammo has increased. These two factors may have had more effect on the availability of .22 ammo than the so called "hoarder". I don't know. But if this is the case, we may not see much relief in the availability of .22 ammo in the future unless the makers increase their capacity.
My local WallyWorld has been hit or miss, mostly miss, for 9 months. Yesterday they had 4 boxes of .17HMR and a couple of SD .45 of some sort and I don't need any of that. The couple of other Walmart stores across the river that I rarely frequent have not had anything available when I looked. My favorite LGS now has everything you want to buy other than .22LR but I have not personally laid eyes on a brick of any kind in any store since December. I was there yesterday and walked out empty handed.
I don't do Dick's frankly because the store sucks. They have maybe two commandos that know exactly nothing about anything in the hunting section and Heaven forbid you ask a question other than "how much is that". 30 minutes later you still won't have an answer. Other than that they are okay in my book.
I plan to go to Academy later today and will see what they have available. Last time(3 weeks or so ago) they had .223 and 9mm but still had the 1 box limit. Both items were at "normal" prices and I did manage to get a couple of boxes of the 9mm.
I won't need .223 for 100 years. I probably should have flipped a few thousand rounds at $.75 a round 6 months ago and pocketed $2500 or so. Instead I gave some to a new AR owner that got his rifle for Christmas from his wife. By the time he got it there was no ammo anywhere except at my house.
I could really use some Stingers or Mini Mags as I am down to just a few boxes of Stingers and zero on the MMs. I can live without them but like to keep a few hundred on hand and haven't seen them anywhere for a while. Have not even bothered with the internet on those two but may have to see if I can find some online.
I don't do Dick's frankly because the store sucks. They have maybe two commandos that know exactly nothing about anything in the hunting section and Heaven forbid you ask a question other than "how much is that". 30 minutes later you still won't have an answer. Other than that they are okay in my book.
I plan to go to Academy later today and will see what they have available. Last time(3 weeks or so ago) they had .223 and 9mm but still had the 1 box limit. Both items were at "normal" prices and I did manage to get a couple of boxes of the 9mm.
I won't need .223 for 100 years. I probably should have flipped a few thousand rounds at $.75 a round 6 months ago and pocketed $2500 or so. Instead I gave some to a new AR owner that got his rifle for Christmas from his wife. By the time he got it there was no ammo anywhere except at my house.
I could really use some Stingers or Mini Mags as I am down to just a few boxes of Stingers and zero on the MMs. I can live without them but like to keep a few hundred on hand and haven't seen them anywhere for a while. Have not even bothered with the internet on those two but may have to see if I can find some online.
Justin
Moderator Emeritus
I remember when these were around $12 at Walmart.
mrcooper
member
WHY cant people just stop buying ammo as such high prices and let the ammo makers and the goverment chock to death on it.
I went into my local feed store to get feed and checked the ammunition cabinet to see if there was anything new, they have slowly getting some in, all rifle.
There was 25 bricks of .22. The price was higher than Academy, but within reason and fair.
I asked if there was a limit and the answer was no. I was going to take 2 bricks and the owner said to get 3. I could have bought more, but I left it so other folks would have a smile on their face.
There was 25 bricks of .22. The price was higher than Academy, but within reason and fair.
I asked if there was a limit and the answer was no. I was going to take 2 bricks and the owner said to get 3. I could have bought more, but I left it so other folks would have a smile on their face.
mdauben
Member
And your point is? Prices for factory ammo have been steadily increasing since metallic cartridges were invented. Prices on everything will always go up in the long term.
If factory prices (as opposed to retail prices) go up too much without a corresponding increase in the cost of raw materials and manufacturing, someone will either increase capacity or open a new plant and prices will correct. The only way to maintain artificially high prices long term would be a conspiracy on the part of all the ammo manufacturers to fix prices.
I don't expect to ever see the prices of last year again, but the current 'panic' pricing levels are unsustainable and already they are already starting to drop down to the 'new' normal.
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huntsman
Member
The high end stuff seems to have remained constant, I'd think BB ammo is real close to what it was in 08 it's just the cheap promo ammo everyone is obsessed with that's gone up noticeably.
And +1 on the new normal this is a different country economically and commodities like ammo reflect that, just the Polly's don't want to admit it.
astra600
Member
I agree buyers help set prices, especially for LGS. One store here was advertising 50 rounds of .380 for $50 a couple of years back. I believe most of it just stayed on the shelf. Right now powder is gone. The LGSs only have what no one uses, Powder Valley is essentially empty. Wally World gets a few boxes of 243 and 270. The gun shows I don't bother with. The last show I went to a vendor had an eight pound jug of Varget with a $400 price tag on it. I'm waiting, stuff will come back at slightly higher prices for the most part (thinking positively here) and I'll buy twice what I normally would, especially for reloading. Got to get set for the Kenyans third run for office.
If there's a predictable and non-transitory increase in demand, the manufacturers will CERTAINLY increase capacity to meet it. They're in business to make money selling ammunition.
What they can NOT do is make significant increases in capacity to meet unpredictable demand spikes that are perceived as not being permanent increases in demand. There's a limit to what they can do to increase production to meet a demand surge that they don't believe will last. Buying expensive equipment and increasing floor space are permanent solutions and if they are used to meet temporary demand surges the consequences after the demand surge subsides could be severe--including bankruptcy.
There is absolutely NO need to worry about permanent increases in demand affecting long term supply. The only problem comes when a temporary increase in demand exceeds the surge manufacturing capability of the ammo makers.
barnbwt
member
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"smart people are standing in line at Wal-mart at 5 O'clock in the morning to buy ammo at today's prices because it WILL be more expensive down the road"
Please. If those folks would simply apply that time in line to a real job, they'd make all that money back and then some. They're in line, because it's still easy money to scalp the ammo online. Anyone else who willingly spends hours out of their days to procure ammo for their own stash is simply suffering from a compulsion ("miser's syndrome" where you spend 10$ of time/effort to save a nickel).
Prices are rising, because they've been artificially held down by Walmart, ironically for the express purpose of getting us used to higher prices (I'm convinced). If they and their suppliers had done the free-market thing, and raised prices in accordance with demand, we'd have seen a supply shock, price spike, market freeze, return of inventories, price reduction, and finally market stabilization (after several iterations) back to pre-crises levels, adjusted for material cost changes. Instead, our modern integrated-supply chain scheme has made it very easy for companies and their suppliers to manipulate markets in the name of stabilization, at the expense of the end-consumer
They agreed to hold prices roughly where they were. Shortages ensued. Then rationing, which never fails to spark even more alarm. Panic ensued. People got in the habit of buying any ammo, whenever they could. Back orders stack up, guaranteeing a stable demand for manufactures to work towards for the foreseeable future. After sustained supply shock, consumers gradually become more and more desperate, increasing their tolerance to higher retail prices, which are inflexible downward if applied gradually.
All the while, Wal-Mart (and other big distributors/sellers) have been getting the same--if not more--cash flow as always, get to claim some faux moral "high ground" to consumers despite giving up nothing in terms of profit or market share, have diverted an entire segment of the ammo market through their stores permanently, and will end up raising their prices on us anyway. It's all very clear if you remember that corporations as a rule act in their own interest above all else.
When this is all said and done, we'll probably still see lazy bums camping out in the AM to buy 9mm, in the hopes of selling on Gunbroker for 2$ more for some easy cash. It costs them zero effort to play this game, so they will continue to do so as long as Walmart continues price controls. Ammo trading used to be a gun-shop's game; now it's everyone's. Just as small size investment accounts democratized the stock markets and led to bigger markets than ever, independent ammo speculators will keep the "ammo brokers" laughing all the way to the bank
TCB
Please. If those folks would simply apply that time in line to a real job, they'd make all that money back and then some. They're in line, because it's still easy money to scalp the ammo online. Anyone else who willingly spends hours out of their days to procure ammo for their own stash is simply suffering from a compulsion ("miser's syndrome" where you spend 10$ of time/effort to save a nickel).
Prices are rising, because they've been artificially held down by Walmart, ironically for the express purpose of getting us used to higher prices (I'm convinced). If they and their suppliers had done the free-market thing, and raised prices in accordance with demand, we'd have seen a supply shock, price spike, market freeze, return of inventories, price reduction, and finally market stabilization (after several iterations) back to pre-crises levels, adjusted for material cost changes. Instead, our modern integrated-supply chain scheme has made it very easy for companies and their suppliers to manipulate markets in the name of stabilization, at the expense of the end-consumer
They agreed to hold prices roughly where they were. Shortages ensued. Then rationing, which never fails to spark even more alarm. Panic ensued. People got in the habit of buying any ammo, whenever they could. Back orders stack up, guaranteeing a stable demand for manufactures to work towards for the foreseeable future. After sustained supply shock, consumers gradually become more and more desperate, increasing their tolerance to higher retail prices, which are inflexible downward if applied gradually.
All the while, Wal-Mart (and other big distributors/sellers) have been getting the same--if not more--cash flow as always, get to claim some faux moral "high ground" to consumers despite giving up nothing in terms of profit or market share, have diverted an entire segment of the ammo market through their stores permanently, and will end up raising their prices on us anyway. It's all very clear if you remember that corporations as a rule act in their own interest above all else.
When this is all said and done, we'll probably still see lazy bums camping out in the AM to buy 9mm, in the hopes of selling on Gunbroker for 2$ more for some easy cash. It costs them zero effort to play this game, so they will continue to do so as long as Walmart continues price controls. Ammo trading used to be a gun-shop's game; now it's everyone's. Just as small size investment accounts democratized the stock markets and led to bigger markets than ever, independent ammo speculators will keep the "ammo brokers" laughing all the way to the bank
TCB
Direwolf131
member
You are dead wrong! I have been selling cases of ammo on GB, mostly 9mm, for as much, or more then a new Glock or M&P. Only an idiot would be discounting their ammo in this market, ammo I paid $7.00 a box for has been selling like hotcakes on GB for $30.00.
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