Prices are rising, because they've been artificially held down by Walmart, ironically for the express purpose of getting us used to higher prices (I'm convinced). If they and their suppliers had done the free-market thing, and raised prices in accordance with demand, we'd have seen a supply shock, price spike, market freeze, return of inventories, price reduction, and finally market stabilization (after several iterations) back to pre-crises levels, adjusted for material cost changes. Instead, our modern integrated-supply chain scheme has made it very easy for companies and their suppliers to manipulate markets in the name of stabilization, at the expense of the end-consumer
They agreed to hold prices roughly where they were. Shortages ensued. Then rationing, which never fails to spark even more alarm. Panic ensued. People got in the habit of buying any ammo, whenever they could. Back orders stack up, guaranteeing a stable demand for manufactures to work towards for the foreseeable future. After sustained supply shock, consumers gradually become more and more desperate, increasing their tolerance to higher retail prices, which are inflexible downward if applied gradually.
I agree with your position that Wal-Mart is artificially holding down prices, but I personally don't think it is the huge conspiracy your suggest. What you suggest is price fixing, a federal crime under the Sherman Anti Trust Act. Could Wal-Mart and ammo manufacturers be price fixing? I suppose. It is certainly
possible, but
probable? in the current political climate (anti gun / ammo fever getting the gun grabbers all riled up, and vitriolic Wal-Mart hatred at an all time high, particularly with the current administration) it would be incredibly stupid. Almost inconceivably stupid. Talk about painting a bullseye on your back. But there are more and more stupid people out there these days it seems. We are becoming the movie
Idiocracy, I'm afraid.
The other way to look at is in consideration of the fact that Wal-Mart is everyone's favorite whipping boy. They may be holding prices down to avoid creating massive backlash, from people who don't understand how supply and demand works. The squeaky wheel gets greased, as they say. A lot of gas stations did the same thing when gas prices first spiked in 2005, for similar reasons. They reduced their margins to the bare minimum because they didn't want to deal with hate and discontent (that comes directly from some of the owners of these stations in my locale).
Market levels? Thats what you are getting from gunbroker. You know the ones people are calling gougers, scalpers and flippers. You are seeing the market price for ammo right there, live for all to see. That's what you want?
Well, whether you like it or not, that is already happening. Wal-Mart
is holding prices artificially low, and a lot of people know it. How else to do explain the people camping out at Wal-Mart every morning (it is still happening at mine), to buy 3 boxes almost right off the truck and flip it with a markup? They are doing it because they can, and according to my local WM, they say it is the same 50 to 100 people doing it and the vast majority are retirees, so they have time to do such things. People are paying the marked up prices.
Now, I went into my local WM and was shocked to find actual boxes of ammo there in calibers I was looking for (.30-30, .223/5.56). Pretty much all they've had since December is .300 WSM and .22 Mag. And my favorite local gun shop, as of last month, actually had about 100 boxes of ammo in ALL calibers in stock (his shelves were still near empty, but he had on average a few boxes in every caliber). This is a big improvement over zero, but still a way off.
Retailers may think they can set prices, but in reality they cannot. Buyers set the price. People who think something is too expensive ought not to be buyers. If they say the price is too high--but buy anyway--then their actions speak more loudly than their words.
To be blunt: If you bought it, then the price was not too high.
What we have to be careful about now is waiting so long to return to the retail ammo market that sellers lose track of pent-up demand. There are lots of people who would not pay the silly prices of the last nine months and, even if they are starting to feel a shortage in their personal inventory, have still not bought ammo in that space of time.
The other effect I can understand first hand: individuals stocking up so they don't get caught high and dry again. I'm not talking about hoarding, but I ran out of several calibers in this last shortage, and I will take steps to ensure that doesn't happen again next time there is another panic. I'm not the only one who thinks this way, and I'm betting it will lead to the shortage lasting longer than it otherwise would have.
