When Will the War Begin?

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Have heard a lot of chatter about mid-feb or mid-march. Talk of needing the time to build up troop concentrations.

New Moon is Feb.1 and I am inclined to believe the Air War will begin then. Seems you don't need quite the troop concentrations to begin the Air War. IIRC there are several carrier groups in that area. B-52s are on Diego Garcia and B-2s operate out of the CONUS.

Opinions?

Disclaimer: Still not convinced that SaDamn is a threat to the US (his nieghbors aren't too worried about him - and if the last ten years non-complians was a big issue for W. he should have campainged on it), but I think a war is likely.
 
Lot of guys from the units in my area have gotten called up. Lots of friends and friends of friends. Not sure yet if I'm going to get activated.

In any case, I'm keeping my fingers crossed too. Saddam's generals are getting nervous. They're probably looking around, thinking "do I really want to die for this jerk?"

Maybe there'll be a coup or something. If there's a war, we'll win, but a lot of people will die. God willing we can avoid that.
 
I don't think it will start until mid Feb. New moon would be good but a huge hospital ship left Baltimore harbor about 2 weeks ago. It will take about 4 weeks to get there and I don't see them starting the war without it. OTOH, they may start an air campaign before that date becuase an air war, even if there are casualties, will not produce large numbers of people needing hospital care. I really don't think that a ground war is going to cause large numbers of US casualties either but you have to be prepared. Even Saddam could get lucky.
 
I've got this real bad feeling that the moment Sodamncrazy gets ahold of three nukes, ol' number 3 will make a sudden appearance in New York harbor in a rowboat with a flea-bitten wild-eyed Arab nutcase at the helm.

Why #3?

Saddam'll keep the first one he gets as a "rainy day" thing. He'll keep the second as a backup to #1. But #3...that one goes to Osama Yo Mama and par-boils NYC.

Dunno that I feel like waitin' that long.

Then again, I ain't headin' over there myself...the servicemen and reservists oughta be able to vote on it, is my opinion.
 
Watch the 101st for deployment

The 101st is still at Ft. Campbell.

IMHO

I don't think things will really get going until they get deployment orders. But as an airborne unit that could happen in 72 hours, or even less if they already have their "stay close to home - all leaves are cancelled" orders.

The other factor is the movement of the M1 Abrams tanks to deployment positions in Turkey and other staging areas.

My son (US Army) just got transferred to a new unit and his transfer was moved up 60 days from a mid April date to next Friday! He was also told not to transfer his household goods because he would not be at his new unit's HQ for more than 1 to 3 weeks before deployment.

I may be wrong but it does seem like the pace is picking up.

Don P.
 
"Then again, I ain't headin' over there myself...the servicemen and reservists oughta be able to vote on it, is my opinion."

I respectfully submit that they voted when they enlisted or accepted a commission.
 
I'm also keeping my fingers crossed that it won't begin.

We need to send troops over there as a show of force but hopefully "we're here to support the overthrow of your torturer" and air support will do the job and get the Iraqis to do it themselves.

Many thanks to those of you in active military and reserves.
 
Well, I'd guess that as long as inspectors are there, Bush won't make any moves - if he did, the inspectors would be as good as dead. So let's keep our eyes on inspection activity.
 
4v50 Gary:

You have the start date nailed. The United States is already at war, just as surely as we were on the next day after Dec 7, 1941.

Book 2 of the War...I don't know when that will start, but very,very soon. See my sig line.
 
Note that many of you seem to be thinking in terms of ground war, troop and tank movements. I expect that this war* will begin like the last with an extended air campaign.

I thought of the Colin Powell angle re: his address to the UN, but perhaps that will be to explain why the US started dropping bombs. sometimes it is better to ask forgiveness rather than permission - school of thought

Seems like the New Moon is best time to start air campaign. Would anybody (other than SaDamn) be suprised by massive air strikes Feb. 1?


*Some say the war started 9/11/01, I suspect osama and his mama say it started back in '91. Sme say the US is justified in pre-emptive attacks because SaDamn violated treaty agreements re; cessation of hostilities in '92 so this is just a continuation of the Gulf War.
 
February 12 their time in Baghdad about 4am.

Why Saddam will fight. Saddam's support comes primcipally from the 20% Sunni group. The rest of the country is Shiite in the south and Kurd in the north. The Sunni's there will fight as they are tied to Saddam. How long will it last> 96 hours.

My .02 cents!
 
I'm hoping for Feb. 9th, since that is my 21st birthday. I'll be able to buy a six-pack and watch the fireworks.

All the talk lately has been real tough, but there just hasn't been that "this is the last straw" sort of thing happening. Bush 41 made it abundantly clear that Saddam had until, IIRC, Jan 15th, 1991 to clear out of Kuwait. He specifically stated that it was not a deadline to prevent military action, but the ultimatum was pretty clear. I haven't seen that sort of "do this or we smack you down like a red-headed stepchild" talk yet (although I am a little isolated at times from news, so I could be oblivious to it). I don't know how one would issue a clear ultimatum in this case. Searching for WMD isn't as easy as looking on the Kuwaiti side of the border for tanks with Iraqi flags. When a clear ultimatum comes out, and I mean real clear, I'll try to guess with accuracy when the war will start. For now... I'll say Feb. 14th.
 
It will begin

...when the fascist hegemons of the Bush junta are instructed by their corporate masters, who want Iraq's oil even if it screws up their profits, just out of sheer bloodthirstiness. And they in turn are, as we all know, in the pocket of the Zionist world conspiracy.

Oh, and there was no holocaust, either.
 
Light is not wanted for night operations.
With this in mind, my guess is about the 16th of March, to take advantage of the darkness of the new moon which is the 18th of March.
My son, a Marine, went to Kuwait last weekend so I don't want war to start, but I realize it has to or we will be attacked at here like they are in Isreal.
 
I misread my calendar and thought the symbol for the full moon was the symbol for the new moon.
I think it will be close to the new moon to have more days of darkness.
My guess is 3/1/03
 
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