Why there is no ammo or components. It's not a conspiracy.

[TexasRifleman]

I posted this in another thread when someone was talking about primers being difficult to locate.

There is a lot of misinformation out there about government conspiracies to keep us from getting ammo, hoarders driving the price up, companies under pressure to keep production low, whatever.

The truth is not nearly as exciting. I know a few people in the defense industry, and I'm sure others here on THR do as well.

Let's see if we can explain this in a way that doesn't require tin foil, though some people do LOVE their tinfoil

The DoD has a need for 2 billion rounds of ammo a year in 5.56, 7.62, and .50 cal. ATK, the prime contractor, could deliver 1.4 billion a year. ATK let out a contract to a subcontractor, did some expansion etc, and kicked the number up to about 1.6 bil.

That still left about 400 million rounds short. The DoD then let out some overrun contracts paying (according to several articles I read) 35 cents a round for 5.56. General Dynamics won that in around 2005 if I remember correctly, but only recently began delivering. GD subcontracted a lot of this out to smaller firms.

35 cents a round is a very high price and it's from a guaranteed customer, Uncle Sam. Smaller ammo and component makers that generally would not have been able to participate in a government job were able to go after this one as suppliers to General Dynamics.

So, component and ammo makers retooled to make military components and cut way back on their production of other calibers which left little to sell to the civilian market.

It's not a conspiracy by anyone to keep primers out of people's hands, it's simple cash flow for the ammo companies.

They have a customer with bottomless pockets wanting to pay absolute top dollar for their product so they are taking advantage of it.

GD is building their own facility in Florida to open in 2010. In the meantime they are subcontracting like mad, throwing lots of money at the problem.

Here is the glimmer of hope for us:

It is possible that after GD finishes it's own production facility in Florida that the smaller companies will be cut back out of the loop.

If that happens they will be looking for customers in a bad way, and that is us. Hopefully we would see availability skyrocket and price decrease drastically if that happens. So, we'll see in 2010 I guess but until then things are going to be tight.

From ATK:

The Army’s “1-2-3-4 acquisition strategy creates a path to acquiring as much as 2.0 billion rounds of small-caliber ammunition annually. The first 1.2 billion rounds of ammunition each year will come from ATK Lake City, followed by an additional 300 million rounds from a second source. The next 300 million rounds increment each year will again come from ATK Lake City and, if the Army needs an additional 200 million rounds, it will be provided by ATK and/or the second source. “This strategy clearly places a priority on procuring ammunition from ATK, said DeYoung.

From Defense Industry Daily, an industry magazine:

General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems Inc. in St. Petersburg, FL received a $171.2 million firm-fixed-price contract for Establishment of the Small Caliber Ammunition Second Source Prime Contractor for the Production of 5.56mm, 7.62mm, and .50 Caliber Ammunition. Work will be performed in St. Petersburg, FL and is expected to be complete by Aug. 23, 2010. Bids were solicited via the World Wide Web on Jan. 18, 2005, and two bids were received.

 

[jcwit]

Do a search for a thread called Primers, Primers. I called 2 of the mfg. this week about it, read it all there.
The thread is under reloading if I remember.

 

[TexasRifleman]

Well that thread supposes that there are 14 million primers being made each week.

General Dynamics cannot make it's own primers, they are buying them.

GD needs to make 400 million rounds of ammo a year.

That means that 28 weeks of primer production in this country, outside of what ATK does for it's own contracts, is going to fill this one customer order.

In other words half of the primers being made now are being sucked up by GD.

You can't blame it all on hoarders, even though that's a lot more fun

Simple fact is that even though the primer makers are running 24/7, the supply to sell to civilians is only 1/2 of what is being produced.

 

[Claude Clay]

facts only serve to undermine supposition
without conspiracy our soap box collapses and what have we to ramble & rant about left??

---->though ultimately, it is the big bad government that is behind the shortage, yes?

 

[jcwit]

If you read my post carefully the question was, How many primers were made during the months of Feb. and March respectfully for cilvian consumption to be shipped to distributors to go to dealers.

 

[gyp_c2]

hmmm...

...muddin' up the water wit' defacts has never been popular...

 

[TexasRifleman]

If you read my post carefully the question was, How many primers were made during the months of Feb. and March respectfully for cilvian consumption to be shipped to distributors to go to dealers.

Yes I read that, I also read where the companies would not give you that information.

The other poster in the thread said:

When I had called ATK, the lady said something similar about production. She said the CCI plant was making around 14 million per week, if I recall correctly. I never asked if they were actually shipping them out.

CCI/ATK is the largest manufacturer. The others can't meet those production numbers.

General Dynamics is buying roughly 7.8 million primers a week. They have to come from somewhere since GD doesn't make them.

You simply can't blame this all on hoarding. Well actually I guess you can, but it's Uncle Sam that's doing the hoarding.

 

[goldie]

it still doesnt explain why every walmart has no 22lr bulk packs, they sell out in a few days after re stocking.there seems to be a big run on 22 bulk ammo.i went to 4 different ones & found 3 bulk packs of remington golden bullet only in 1 store.also,theres no russian made 7.62x39 anywhere except gunbroker,& no military grade 7.62x39 is made here,only 20 round sporting from rem,fed,winchester.so something is going on more than just supplying to the military...

 

[TexasRifleman]

so something is going on more than just supplying to the military...

Of course there is a buying frenzy. But with ammo producers cutting back on production of all ammo including .22, there is less to sell.

More people want to buy and there is less product to sell so sure that means shortages.

There's no question that buying has gone up, but the supply going down is not some "conspiracy".

 

[goldie]

i guess its like the gas crunch of last summer,lessen the supply & demand increases,along with the price. will it go back to normal or stay this way for a long time?

 

[jcwit]

They stated they were shipping primers out for cilivan consumption by the millions. The company isn't going to release actual numbers being produced or shipped, if you seriously think so call up GE and ask how many 100 watt frosted light bulbs they made for U.S. consumption during the month of March. Please post the answer. Same thing applies to most manufactures.

Call up Reese's candy up and ask what the numbers are for production and shipping of Peanut Butter Cups for March.

 

[TexasRifleman]

They stated they were shipping primers out for civilian consumption by the millions

I'm not really sure what your point is.

We all know they are making millions, but not how many millions.

So, you can't sit here and say that the shortage is caused by hoarding since you have no idea how many are being sold.

Your basic point in the other thread is:

The U.S. can supply what the military needs for years with the few small wars we have going on and all of a sudden the cilvian market can not be supplied. Strange.

No, it's not strange. It's documented above that the military has raised their requirements from 1.4 billion to 2 billion rounds a year, and they made that change in 2005-2006 timeframe with the manufacturers being awarded those contracts and production starting in '08.

General Dynamics is making up the 400 million round a year gap with subcontractors until it's own factory is finished in 2010.

Why is that strange? Or signs of a conspiracy?

 

[jcwit]

Well all I can say at this point is grab the bull by the horns and Monday morning and call them up for yourself and get what facts you can as I already did but obviously not to your satisfaction.
Go for it and report your findings.

Facts count - assumptions are just that and get us nowhere.

 

[TexasRifleman]

We don't NEED to know how many primers they ship to know that 400 million more rounds of ammo started going to the military last year.
Primers and other components for that 400 million rounds hves to come from somewhere.

It's not complicated, and it's not an assumption.

There are 400 million fewer components to sell to us this year than there were a couple of years ago.

 

[jcwit]

What I'm obviously talking about is that you state I do not post the actual number of primers being shipped. Well go for it and see if you can find out, talk to them. ATK even has an 800 number to keep the cost down.

BTW ATK also stated their production at Lewiston is 100% for cilivan use.

 

[TexasRifleman]

BTW ATK also stated their production at Lewiston is 100% for cilivan use.

CCI makes mil spec primers.
CCI sells primers to General Dynamics.

Powder is experiencing the same thing, it's not just primers.

Hodgdon gets its powder components from a company called St Marks Powder. Hodgdon can't meet market demand because St Marks can't supply powder.

Guess who owns St Marks?

General Dynamics, the same General Dynamics that is trying to sell 400 million rounds a year to the military.

You and I are competing with General Dynamics for ammo components, in addition to all the other shooters out there.

 

[jcwit]

Not what the told me, guess the factory reps were just lying.

Now are you happy?

 

[TexasRifleman]

Not what the told me, guess the factory reps were just lying.

Now are you happy?

CCI told you that they do not sell primers to General Dynamics?

You asked them that question did you?

You are desperate to believe that there is a conspiracy or that hoarders are the problem. Go right ahead, enjoy that.
You have not shown anything to back up your claims though, why is that?

 

[Jeff White]

You are reaping what you sewed. Everyone had such a good time in the 1990s spending the peace dividend Part of the money we spent on other things was received from the closure and sale of the government ammunition plants.

Now we are in a war and we don't have the capacity to produce enough ammunition for the military and civilian markets.....

 

[TexasRifleman]

Now we are in a war and we don't have the capacity to produce enough ammunition for the military and civilian markets.....

Or cops, especially cops.

Every cop I know says their agencies have cut training back to an absolute minimum because of ammo shortages.

If there was a conspiracy to keep ammo out of civilian hands you'd think they would exclude cops from that huh?

 

[rickomatic]

There are 400 million fewer components to sell to us this year than there were a couple of years ago.

Add that to:
1. The new administration has people scared/suspicious/panicked
2. Hundreds of thousands if not millions of first time gun buyers and current gun owners buying more guns.
3. Greater demand for ammunition from all those new shooters and current owners with new guns.
4. Current shooters see supply dwindling and start to "hoard"
5. People who quit reloading when ammo was cheap are now getting back in to it (I am in that group)
6. People who had never reloaded are now getting in to it to try to supply their ammo needs.
7. Popular belief (maybe true, maybe not) that we all need at least 1,000 rounds per weapon we own in reserve.

It's easy to see when you add all these things together it equals ammo and reloading components and supplies are VERY hard to find.

 

[jcwit]

What is it you don't get. The question was for and only for cilivan consumption, got it. I would think Gen. Dynamics is not a cilivan distributor selling to dealers, selling to the consumer. Does this make it clear now?

Do I believe there is a conspiracy NO. Do I believe their is hoarding going on? Yes, I have a friend who now has way over 100,000 primers and continues to buy more, if that isn't hoarding I don't know what is.
Do I believe that is the only problem at the retail level, NO. Increase in cost of mmo has brought more people into the reloading community. Increase in the sale of firearms has ment more demand
for ammo which needs primers.

These are only 3 of the many other factors which pertain to the primer problem.

I think Rick nailed it better than I did.

 

[Double Naught Spy]

Why there is no ammo or components. It's not a conspiracy.

TR is RIGHT! It isn't a conspiracy.

However, I would tend to believe that hoarding is a big part of the issue, along with the typical military drain that has been ongoing for a while now.

So not a conspiracy. It is just that 100s of thousands of gun owners are independently trying to capture a share of the available resources out there all at the same time (right now) when manufacturers are also having to keep ammo supplied to a multi-front war.

If hoarding isn't a significant issue, then why are people buying out all the ammo at gun shows before noon on the first day (at least around here) and why are people buying cases of ammo when in the past they would just buy boxes?

 

[bessemerbob]

I really dont see why people cant put two and two together....... Supply VS Demand... Wow thats tuff, ask your gun shop what he was selling a day in ammo this time last year vs now. Ammo dosent fall from the sky

 

[bessemerbob]

Also on the Police agency cut backs, well look at it two ways. A year ago when the 2009 budget was being written and approved rounds where ¼ less then now or more, so if X amount of dollars are budgeted and now they can only get half the ammo for that price well they will need to cut back, also with economic issues across the nation many departments cant just ask the local government to increase there ammo budget, or you can look at it as there is some government conspiracy to end production of hand gun ammo….