Acceptable level of reliability

[Jim NE]

I've put about 500 rounds through my 9mm Sigma since it came back for warranty repair. It had failed completely - nothing but non-ignition light strikes after about a mag or two if intermittent light strikes.

In that 500 rounds since the warranty work, I've had 2 light strikes, occurring about 200 rounds apart. Was able to fire many rounds after the light strikes with no problem. I could send the gun back for a second time, but I'm worried that they may not be able to recreate the problem.

While I welcome suggestions on how to address my specific problem, I'm REALLY interested to know what you think about acceptable levels of reliability. I have two other 9mm's that have never failed once, and a third higher quality gun that I haven''t shot yet.

Thing is, I like the way the Sigma shoots and feels. Two ftf's in 500 rounds doesn't sound that great, but it's not that horrible. I'm inclined to not carry it, but keep it as a back up. What do you think?

S'pose I'll eventually send it back, since the the gun completely failed due to light strikes, but I don't know if the problem will ever totally go away.

 

[kayak-man]

It really depends on what you're using it for.

If its going to be used in competition or for "social work," then I would expect it to go bang every time. If its something that you're only shooting for fun, then I don't think its that big of a deal.

What kind of ammo where you using? its possible that the problem is with the primers, and not the gun. Also, how frequently do you clean the gun? It could be that the striker is a little gummed up.

When you say you have the Sigma as a "backup," do you mean that you are carrying it in addition to another gun, or you have it just in case something happens to your other gun (but don't carry them at the same time.)?

For me, reliability is the one thing I won't sacrifice in a defensive gun. I'm willing to make some accomodations, however. If the gun needs a specific kind of ammo, or new magazine springs, or to be cleaned every X rounds (as long as that number isn't less than the ammount of ammo I carry at a time) to function at 100%, that's fine, but if I can't get it to run at 100% I'm not going to carry it if I can avoid it.

For a "fun gun" I'm still going to want as much reliability as I can get, but its not as important, because if the gun does malfunction, Its not costing me anything. If reliability was the only thing I cared about in guns, I'd only shoot center fire revolvers and single shot rifles. If I'm just having fun at the range, I actually welcome the occasional malfunction, because it forces me to quickly clear an unexpected jam.

Chris "the Kayak-Man" Johnson

 

[ColtPythonElite]

While two FTF may not be great, it is not horrible. You are correct that getting the manufacturer to recreate the problem and correct it is gonna be tough. I'll make bets that they will blame it on your ammo, which it possibly could be.

I would carry the gun with no hesitations. Part of my formal training includes malfunction drills, so I have learned to quickly resolve FTF problems.

 

[ny32182]

Light strikes should not be that hard a problem to resolve. Either the striker spring is weak, the primers are hard/seated wrong, or something is gumming up the striker/channel, assuming the gun is stock... there just aren't that many things it could be.

Has this gun had any kind of "trigger job"?

 

[tuj]

What ammo?

 

[mgmorden]

What type of ammo was the light strikes on? If it was russian stuff or even Winchester, that's more forgivable as those primers are harder. If it's on Federal, then there's still an issue with the gun.

Just IMHO, 2 rounds out of 500 is skirting on me throwing it into the unreliable category - so long as you can nail the fault down specifically to the gun itself.

 

[holdencm9]

"Acceptable reliability" is something I have always wondered about too. People often proclaim they won't trust a weapon because it had x jams in y number of rounds, or that they WILL trust a weapon because it has had zero jams in z number of rounds. A lot of it is just rhetoric, given that no gun can be said to have 100% certainty of flawless performance "if you need to use it." It all comes down to how much confidence you have in the weapon. For some, 1 jam out of 10,000 shots might be too much. But even zero jams in that many rounds is no guarantee....but it is a pretty good indicator. For me, a jam or two every 1000 rounds is probably okay. My LCP has had 3 jams out of about 500 rounds, but 2 were ammo-related, and one "could" have been limp-wristing (not me shooting). So I feel confident in it.

My statistics is a bit rusty, but I believe, statistically, 2 jams in 500 rounds is 99.6% success. So on any given round you have a 0.4% chance of pulling the trigger and hearing click. For a mag of say, 15 rounds, you have:

100 x (1 - 0.996^15) = 5.83% chance of a FTF within that magazine.

And that's assuming you empty the mag. Now, if you are ever in a life or death situation, whether or not you like those odds is a personal choice. Some would say that you should never gamble with your life, but hey we do it all the time. Driving a car, eating sushi, etc. In the extremely unlikely event that you need to use your weapon, and the very low probability of a jam, I'd say you are probably okay. But again, it all comes down to how much confidence YOU have in it.

 

[Jim NE]

The ammo is generally the least expensive ball stuff I can get at cabellas. It's Sellier and Belloit (sp?) and MFS, but I also have other brands like Herter's alum. and Tula I haven't shot yet. My ccw instructor swore it was the hard primers on this cheaper ammo when my gun failed, so I tried some of his better stuff, but it didn't help. I've noticed that the indentations aren't always the same size or depth in the primers, even on rounds that have fired properly.

Brands of ammo: the thing is, I almost wish it would fail more often so that a change of brand would lead to a more observable result or non-result. I'd have to shoot several hundred rounds of the more expensive stuff to find out if it's really helping. The inexpensive stuff allows me to shoot as often as I do, but I guess I need to try the better stuff.

When you say you have the Sigma as a "backup," do you mean that you are carrying it in addition to another gun, or you have it just in case something happens to your other gun (but don't carry them at the same time.)?

Yeah, I should've been more clear. Back up as in my other gun is in for repair so I'll use the Sigma, or just general redundancy. Which brings up a point - I'm really not inclined to carry a second gun on me, so I guess reliability would be even more important.

The thing is, the guy at one of the ranges told my that many serious defensive shooters do snap-cap drills so they can deal with misfires in RLS better. This implies that soem malfunctions are to be expected. But there are also Sigma shooters out there who've had 10,000+ trouble free rounds.

Never had any jams with ball. Had some jams with what looked like really wide opening hollow points. I think smaller opening hollow points are ok.

I cleaned the striker channel out about 300 rounds ago and put NO oil or lube in it. One light strike since then.

My statistics is a bit rusty, but I believe, statistically, 2 jams in 500 rounds is 99.6% success. So on any given round you have a 0.4% chance of pulling the trigger and hearing click. For a mag of say, 15 rounds, you have:

100 x (1 - 0.996^15) = 5.83% chance of a FTF within that magazine.

One thing I should mention - it never seems to happen when I first start shooting when the gun is cold. Only after it's warmed up/heated up significantly (50 -100 rounds). Don't know if that means anything or not, but that would help probability in favor of a carry situation, where gun is almost always cold. But that's assuming alot about the problem and it's correlation to temperature.

 

[Aiko492]

The ammo is generally the least expensive ball stuff I can get at cabellas. It's Sellier and Belloit (sp?) and MFS, but I also have other brands like Herter's alum. and Tula I haven't shot yet. My ccw instructor swore it was the hard primers on this cheaper ammo when my gun failed, so I tried some of his better stuff, but it didn't help. I've noticed that the indentations aren't always the same size or depth in the primers, even on rounds that have fired properly.

Brands of ammo: the thing is, I almost wish it would fail more often so that a change of brand would lead to a more observable result or non-result. I'd have to shoot several hundred rounds of the more expensive stuff to find out if it's really helping. The inexpensive stuff allows me to shoot as often as I do, but I guess I need to try the better stuff.



Yeah, I should've been more clear. Back up as in my other gun is in for repair so I'll use the Sigma, or just general redundancy. Which brings up a point - I'm really not inclined to carry a second gun on me, so I guess reliability would be even more important.

The thing is, the guy at one of the ranges told my that many serious defensive shooters do snap-cap drills so they can deal with misfires in RLS better. This implies that soem malfunctions are to be expected. But there are also Sigma shooters out there who've had 10,000+ trouble free rounds.

Never had any jams with ball. Had some jams with what looked like really wide opening hollow points. I think smaller opening hollow points are ok.

I cleaned the striker channel out about 300 rounds ago and put NO oil or lube in it. One light strike since then.



One thing I should mention - it never seems to happen when I first start shooting when the gun is cold. Only after it's warmed up/heated up significantly (50 -100 rounds). Don't know if that means anything or not, but that would help probability in favor of a carry situation, where gun is almost always cold. But that's assuming alot about the problem and it's correlation to temperature.

The Sellier and Belloit is pretty good quality FMJ (124 gr I think usually) from my experience and from speaking with others @ my Gun Club. It is my preferred practice ammo from my local Sports Authority outlet ($11.25/box). Have been shooting it for the past 4 years error free from 2 HKs, 2 Glocks, a Sig and XDm-only poor aim from the shooter .

 

[holdencm9]

One thing I should mention - it never seems to happen when I first start shooting when the gun is cold. Only after it's warmed up/heated up significantly (50 -100 rounds). Don't know if that means anything or not, but that would help probability in favor of a carry situation, where gun is almost always cold. But that's assuming alot about the problem and it's correlation to temperature.

That is definitely a more ideal situation than a gun that likes to jam from the outset. I don't know a lot about the sigma, but maybe after a few dozen rounds the channel where the firing pin moves just gets fouled enough to slow it down ever so slightly that you get light strikes? Have you ever had a FTF on your first few shots of a range visit? There is really no cut and dry answer to the reliability question, there are a lot of factors. From the sounds of it you shoot the weapon well, and if it typically fires fine the first few mags of any given range visit, it is probably okay for SD. It boils down to, would you rather have a gun that you shoot well, but will jam once or twice every 500 rounds, or a gun that you maybe don't shoot quite as well, and is slightly more reliable?

I agree also, it seems like a contradition to say "I'll never trust my life to anything that even has a remote chance of jamming" and then spend so much time and effort on practice with snap caps and clearing jams, but it shows, nothing is infallible. Snap caps also serve to show if you are flinching. And they can be fun too.

 

[Jim NE]

Have you ever had a FTF on your first few shots of a range visit?

No. In all three situations where light strikes started to occur, I'd already shot at least a box of ammo with no problem, usually more. The gun was warm/hot. Have no idea if this is a coincidence or not.

I think the next time I shoot, I'll check the primers of spent shells as I go, seeing if the indentions change as the gun warms up.

The owner's manual says to not take the striker channel apart, only field strip for cleaning, and lots of Sigma owners have said they go thousands of rounds without having to mess with or clean striker stuff, so I'm guessing fouling isn't an inherent problem with the Sigma.

 

[kayak-man]

The thing is, the guy at one of the ranges told my that many serious defensive shooters do snap-cap drills so they can deal with misfires in RLS better. This implies that some malfunctions are to be expected. But there are also Sigma shooters out there who've had 10,000+ trouble free rounds.

There's a podcast I listen to called Gunfighter Cast, and the main guy on there has a truism about the defensive use of a gun: The thing you're going to do most often, is shoot, so you need to apply the basics (trigger control, grip, sight picture). After you apply the basics so many times, eventually you'll need to reload, so reloading is the number 2 thing you should be able to do. If you're applying the basics and reloading, there's the possibility of a malfunction, so clearing a malfunction is the #3 thing you should be able to do."

Quick question: Do you dryfire your gun at all, and does it have a magazine disconnect safety? I'm only asking because I know the Ruger SR9 pistols could get a worn down firing pin if they were dryfired without a magazine, and you mentioned different depths of the indent on the primer. I'm not sure how applicable that is to the Sigma. If it was me, I'd just look at the parts on the gun, and make sure there isn't any kind of obvious deformity.

The kind of reliability that you're describing is, I would think, acceptable for a defensive gun. I hesitate to say that I think its OK for a competition gun, simply because most of the matches I shoot have a 100-250 round count, which gives you a greater statistical probability of a failure than the (hopefully) less than 30 rounds discharged in a self deference encounter*. That being said, I've been of the belief that if its good enough for self defense, its good enough for competition, so I wouldn't hesitate to shoot some matches with it**, if you feel confident in your ability to clear a malfunction... or if you don't feel confident in clearing malfunctions, shoot it in a match anyways, and someone may be able to give you some pointers***.

Disclaimers:
*- I know that the statistic for shots fired in self defense is usually less than 5, but since most guns hold that many, and some people carry an extra reload or two, it wouldn't be too surprising for an individual to have 30 or more rounds available when carrying.

**- Keep in mind, I occasionally shoot the smaller, weekly falling plate match at my range with a 5 shot, DOA, J-Frame revolver. I may not be the best person to turn to if your looking for words of wisdom/reason in regards to what is/is-not acceptable for shooting competitively

***- I did not mean to imply that you were incapable of clearing a malfunction, or anything of the sort. I just know that I have learned exponentially more at matches than I would have imagined, and just wanted to "pay it forward," as it were.

Chris "the Kayak-Man" Johnson

 

[spearpoint]

rusty...

My statistics is a bit rusty [...]

2 jams in 500 rounds [...] you have a 0.4% chance of [FTF...]

For [...] 15 rounds, you have: [...] 5.83% chance of a FTF [...]

?!?

 

[JustinJ]

From a statistical standpoint 2 in 500 aint bad compared to what else is out there in our modern times i would demand more. I had a PF9 that had a jam about once every other clip for the first 100 rounds. Then it would feed some ammo fine but others it would jam at least once a clip. Yeah, i could have just used what it liked but the problems it did experience reduced my overall trust in the gun and I believe any modern handgun should be able to run reliably with any american made production ammo.

 

[holdencm9]

?!?

Did I mess up the math? I guess it is not really stats but probability. Not sure what ?!? means. I guess since reliability is so dependant on probability it would behoove me to get it right.

2 out of 500 - - - - 498/500 = 0.996

15 rounds, 1 - 0.996 to the 15th degree = .05835

IIRC you can't just take 0.4% x 15 = 6%

If you had a gun that jammed once every 10 rounds, on average, and wanted to know, what are the odds of having a jam on this next mag of 10, it would be

1 - 0.9^10 = 65%

NOT

0.1 x 10 = 1

Which would suggest you will have a jam with 100% certainty. Nothing can be said to occur with 100% certainty until it is in the past.

In justinJ's case, one jam per magazine on average (I think they hold 7) would mean 6/7 = .857 or 85.7% success rate. So the odds of a jam on any GIVEN magazine would be 1 - .857^7 = 66%

When it gets to the point that you are more likely to have a jam in a magazine than NOT have a jam, then it isn't reliable enough!

 

[spearpoint]

Rates

IIRC you can't just take 0.4% x 15 = 6%

0.4% x 15 rounds == 0.06 ROUNDS (out of a 15 round magazine...)

 

[holdencm9]

0.4% x 15 rounds == 0.06 ROUNDS (out of a 15 round magazine...)

Precisely. That makes no sense.

 

[Jim NE]

I did not mean to imply that you were incapable of clearing a malfunction, or anything of the sort.

Don't worry, I'm not one of those people who takes offense where none is intended I'm actually not very good at clearing misfires. One school of thought is to clear them with gross motor hand movement, not fingers. But it works a whole lot better for me to just use thumb and index. Haven't done it under stress, though. Doesn't work good for me on that gun.

No mag safety. Owner's manual says OK to dry fire. Do it a bit, but not much.

I've thought about it and decided I've actually put more like 600 rounds through it since it came back from warranty repairs.

THIS JUST OCCURED TO ME: The warranty repair dept. at Smith said the reason my gun failed the first time was because they'd forgot to put in a striker bushing at the factory. (Strange but true.) I'd fired the gun 250 rounds before it failed, though, and I'm wondering if firing it without the bushing for 250 rounds damaged the striker or springs?? To my knowledge, and according to the invoice, the only warranty repair they did was to put in the missing striker bushing. AHA.

I think a new striker assembly is in order. They may not cover it since the gun functions, but I'll do it on my own. They're available. THANKS everyone.

 

[mljdeckard]

No-go.

The standard test for a carry gun is 200 rds, ERROR FREE, with the ammo and magazines you will be carrying. I'll be completely honest and say I have cut this number some slack, but only with guns which I continued to shoot routinely and they were error-free anyway, besides formal testing.

My Sigma .40 was by far the worst gun I ever bought. Now they say....we have worked out all the bugs, and they are fine. Except the ones that aren't. Putting aside anecdotal experience, the totality of the community, the general likelihood of getting a lemon, etc, I still have the willies, and I won't carry a gun that gives me the willies. That simple. I have to be honest, if you were in here telling me that your new Glock was having these kinds of problems, I would be much more willing to give it the benefit of the doubt, tell you to take it to a smith, replace some springs, clean it up, and call it good.

My willies are my problem. Do what you want.

 

[mgmorden]

0.4% x 15 rounds == 0.06 ROUNDS (out of a 15 round magazine...)

Never took statistics did you?

That math isn't as simple as 15 rounds * 0.4%.

The easiest way to think about statistics is to think about the probability of NOT having a jam. 100% - 0.4% = 99.6%

So, on the first round you have a 99.6% chance of no jam - then 99.6% on the second round, then on the 3rd, etc.

So for fifteen rounds your chance of non-failure must be multiplied against itself 15 times.

99.6% = .996 and .996 ^ 15 = 0.941651226

Or, roughly a 94.2% chance of NOT having a failure. Reverse that - and the remaining chance is that you WILL have a failure, and 100% - 94.2% = a 5.83% chance of having a failure in any given magazine of 15 rounds.

 

[jmr40]

From a statistical standpoint 2 in 500 aint bad

If 2 out or every 500 airliners were to crash tomorrow that would mean hundreds of plane crashes and tens of thousands of dead.



That would be a range use only gun, or long gone if it were mine. If I had that much trouble early on I'd never, NEVER, have complete faith in it for SD. I had one of the early Sigma's, around 1998-1999 that had to be sent back to S&W 3 times before I ever managed to fire a half box of ammo. After 3 trips and 5 months S&W eventually sent me a brand new gun.

The shop where I originally bought the 1st gun allowed me the full price I paid on trade for the new unfired gun on something else. I know the Sigma has been redesigned since then and lots of guys like them, but it left a bad taste in my mouth.

 

[holdencm9]

If 2 out or every 500 airliners were to crash tomorrow that would mean hundreds of plane crashes and tens of thousands of dead.

Just goes to show that different things have different levels of acceptable risk. Acceptable risk for a nuclear plant failing is much lower than a standard building. And one person's acceptable risk for reliability of a self defense gun may be much higher or lower than yours. And a lot of that can be financial...if the person can't afford a new gun, they may just have to live with the gun they have.

Consider the realistic risk of even BEING in a violent encounter where you need to empty the mag, let's say it is 1 in 1000. And having a 5% chance of having a problem within that mag...that is .001 x .05 = .00005 or 1/200th of one percent that it will affect your chances survival. A lot of people understandably) can't justify a new gun with those odds.

As for the 200-round benchmark, that is a good value for gaining confidence in a weapon but there is nothing magical about it (other than many manufacturer's 200-round break-in period) but with my LCP the first 200 rounds were flawless and then I had my first jam around round 250. Linked it to cheap ammo and it has been fine since.

mgmorden, thanks for confirming my calculation. Not sure what spearpoint was getting at...

Edit to add: Now that I think about it I think he was saying that the average rate of FTF could be described as .06 rounds per magazine. But what we are discussing is the likelihood of having a jam within a magazine. They are two different things.

 

[jim8115]

To me, that isnt acceptable, especially from S&W.. even though it is an inexpensive gun. I had a Sigma .40.. broke extractor at 3000, striker at 4500, and another extractor at 3600...........I got rid of it, and have a Springfield XD coming

 

[Jim NE]

If 2 out or every 500 airliners were to crash tomorrow that would mean hundreds of plane crashes and tens of thousands of dead.

I probably won't carry the thing until I can try and test my striker assembly replacement solution, since I have other guns that are performing better.

I'm not sure that airliner thing is a good illustration. Failure of a system on an airliner would have some sort of redundancy back up. Equating failure of a system automatically with catastrophe isn't entirely accurate. I guess that's true for guns - clearing a misfire quickly is redundancy, in a way. I understand the point of the comparison, though. Both are very critical.

 

[NG VI]

the often ignored feature of autoloaders is that failures are almost always able to be cleared within a couple of seconds. Two light strikes in 500 rounds isn't all that bad, not encouraging given your former issues with it, but you may be able to order a stronger spring for it, and even if not, the single best reaction to any issue with an auto is to forcibly rack the slide and keep going.

An unfired primer isn't that bad a malfunction to suffer, imagine trying to clear a double feed under pressure.