Americans are buying fewer guns says Smith & Wesson

[LSCurrier]

I agree with the comments about S&W having MIM and the "wart" lock.

If S&W would get rid of these two things I could easily find myself owning 5 or so new S&W revolvers over the next 2 or 3 years.

Too bad this won't happen though.

Luke

 

[Kynoch]

You can't know if those requiring NICS checks has changed significantly or not. For example, states like GA have no singular database telling you how many weapon carry licenses holders there are.

Sure you can. If for example that "Universal Background Check" bill had passed and there was a sure in NICS checks, that would be an assignable cause.

The NICS database is Federal, managed by the FBI.

There are more and more licensed carriers across the nation, combined with states where a carry license can mean no NICS check to buy a gun, more and more NICS exempt gun sales

Trivial number in the scope of things. In any event even if one has a concealed carry license, it doesn't mean they don't have to undergo a NICS check.

 

[Ed Ames]

Of course you can.

So long as those requiring NICS data hasn't changed drastically the variable is controlled. If anything, NICS checks are required more and more which would work in favor of those who deny that gun sales are dropping.

I don't really get your idea that there is agitation or people are denying anything. It seems like you are trying to bring emotional and loaded language to a coversation where it doesn't belong.

NICS checks per year is an awful measure of gun sales. It certainly isn't a measure a gun manufacturer would use. Not only is it subject to massive errors (e.g. sales in California are not counted at all), but it isn't relevant.

S&W, Ruger, et al are concerned with revenue (and cost of sales) not volume. In other words, how much money are they getting (and how much does it cost them)? When a manufacturer discusses a decline in sales they are not necessarily saying "fewer units sold", they are saying revenue is down. Go back and read the article at the start of the thread...it never actually quotes S&W as saying anything about volume, only about revenue. There is a reason for that. The reporter (who got other facts in the article very very wrong so not exactly a paragon) made the leap from reduced revenue to fewer guns.

The reason NICS checks are an awful indicator of sales volume is that the relationship between checks and sales is uncontrollable and actively changing. For example: AR lower receivers have gone from $250 a few years ago to $50 today. A person who remembers the $250 price could buy 4 AR lowers. Just a personal decision, no law changes. The manufacturer would report a 20% decrease in revenue. Sales volume would go up 400%. NICS would show only a single transaction...unless the buyer was one of the millions who have gotten concealed carry permits over the past few years, in which case there may be no corresponding NCS check. Either way, NICS fails to accurately reflect volume without any change in public policy. The errors can't be dismissed as trivial for the same reason NICS checks are an awful measure of sales volume: the facts needed to calibrate NICS:volume are not being collected, so nobody can say what the error is at any given time. All we know is that there is substantial error that can shift significantly without any change in laws or public policy.

 

[JohnKSa]

Sure you can. If for example that "Universal Background Check" bill had passed and there was a sure in NICS checks, that would be an assignable cause.

Well, sorta. If whatever caused the huge surge made people more likely to get permits (which may bypass NICS) or more likely to make multiple purchases, or both, then the NICS could significantly under-represent the current purchasing situation while it relatively accurately represents older figures.

It's ambiguities like that which make the "other data" you spoke of earlier important in understanding exactly what the NICS data is telling us.

 

[Bruno2]

S&W doesn't appeal to me anymore. There revolvers are on the cheap now days compared to the older ones. I have seen their older models go through the roof on pricing according to what I have seen on the used market. $1000.00 for a 357 is quite common. I don't understand why people would pay it? The GP 100 is a fine gun and probably the toughest wheel gun on the market today. GP 100's can be bought for less than $600 new.

I have no interest in one of S&W's autos or AR platform guns. I don't see the point when there are many many other quality guns on the market like Beretta, Springfield, Ruger, Colt, Bushy as well as another 50 AR makes.

When sales hit record numbers the market is artificially inflated. It will eventually settle back down to close to normal. This is what we will see in the future. As our population grows the panic buys in the future will grow as well.

IMHO, the gun makers should keep their production levels at where they are now for a couple of years even if the market does die down. Whoever makes the sacrifice will score big on the next panic buy. That will be 2016 if Hillary or Biden wins. Maybe even the election itself will spur the buyers up.Somebody with lots of items in inventory that are targeted by the bans will jump out head and shoulders above the competition.

 

[Bruno2]

Another factor I was thinking about regarding the numbers on NICS checks would be guys like me. I am done buying new from FFL dealers. (No offense dealers) The gov has done too much spying and perpetrated way too many criminal acts against the people lately. That listening to our phone calls and the lord only knows what else along with the IRS scandal that unfolded really defeated what little confidence I had dangling for our nation as free people.

I am a member on several local FB gun pages. There is a gun show at my house every night. I am leaning towards private sales for 99% of my purchases from here on out. I have no doubt the NICS system has been abused as well as the 4473 records and I don't want my name anywhere around it.

 

[Kynoch]

Another factor I was thinking about regarding the numbers on NICS checks would be guys like me. I am done buying new from FFL dealers. (No offense dealers) The gov has done too much spying and perpetrated way too many criminal acts against the people lately. That listening to our phone calls and the lord only knows what else along with the IRS scandal that unfolded really defeated what little confidence I had dangling for our nation as free people.

I am a member on several local FB gun pages. There is a gun show at my house every night. I am leaning towards private sales for 99% of my purchases from here on out. I have no doubt the NICS system has been abused as well as the 4473 records and I don't want my name anywhere around it.

NICS checks are a pretty good indicator of new gun sales in the US.

 

[Kynoch]

S&W doesn't appeal to me anymore. There revolvers are on the cheap now days compared to the older ones. I have seen their older models go through the roof on pricing according to what I have seen on the used market. $1000.00 for a 357 is quite common. I don't understand why people would pay it? The GP 100 is a fine gun and probably the toughest wheel gun on the market today. GP 100's can be bought for less than $600 new.

I have no interest in one of S&W's autos or AR platform guns. I don't see the point when there are many many other quality guns on the market like Beretta, Springfield, Ruger, Colt, Bushy as well as another 50 AR makes.

When sales hit record numbers the market is artificially inflated. It will eventually settle back down to close to normal. This is what we will see in the future. As our population grows the panic buys in the future will grow as well.

IMHO, the gun makers should keep their production levels at where they are now for a couple of years even if the market does die down. Whoever makes the sacrifice will score big on the next panic buy. That will be 2016 if Hillary or Biden wins. Maybe even the election itself will spur the buyers up.Somebody with lots of items in inventory that are targeted by the bans will jump out head and shoulders above the competition.

The market has died down and both S&W and Ruger have been beaten-up by Wall Street because they have not done a good job of managing their inventory. They simply have too much $$$ tied up in finished goods inventory -- often the "wrong" inventory too and that's simply poor management.

Continuing to fill-up warehousing space and the distributor channel would be bad form. No only is all that cash tied up, the gov't could mandate a change that might make some of that inventory legally obsolete or at the very least require a massive amount of expensive rework. The competition could also come out with something materially cheaper/better than that stowed away in a warehouse.

 

[Deaf Smith]

I'll say this.... with ISIS on one side, Putin on the other, and add all the illegals coming over the border and I'll say sooner or later sales WILL pick up.

Nobody has confidence in Obama. Nobody. And two more years to go.

Deaf

 

[Bruno2]

Continuing to fill-up warehousing space and the distributor channel would be bad form. No only is all that cash tied up, the gov't could mandate a change that might make some of that inventory legally obsolete or at the very least require a massive amount of expensive rework. The competition could also come out with something materially cheaper/better than that stowed away in a warehouse.

Typically when laws are passed like that items that were manufactured before certain dates are grandfathered in. You don't see Norinco selling new arms over here anymore, but nobody had to turn the ones in that were already in circulation. Same thing for machine guns manufactured before Reagan screwed that up. So no that wouldn't be bad form. That would be having more of an item that would fly off the shelves at inflated prices.

NICS checks are a pretty good indicator of new gun sales in the US.
Kynoch is offline Report Post

LEA's aren't required to go through NICS when buying for departments. Those are big time customers for manufacturers when looking at the number of guns they purchase annually.

 

[Bruno2]

Nobody has confidence in Obama. Nobody. And two more years to go.

Let's pray the Republicans get some good horses in the race this time. Christie turning up as the front runner would sure look like another 8 year dog fight for our rights ahead as well as a totally screwed up market staying that way.

 

[Kynoch]

Typically when laws are passed like that items that were manufactured before certain dates are grandfathered in. You don't see Norinco selling new arms over here anymore, but nobody had to turn the ones in that were already in circulation. Same thing for machine guns manufactured before Reagan screwed that up. So no that wouldn't be bad form. That would be having more of an item that would fly off the shelves at inflated prices.

That's simply not true for manufacturers, distributors or retailers and their inventories. For end-users who already own the guns? Sure. Filling warehouses with inventory for the reasons you suggest would be a reason to hire new management.

LEA's aren't required to go through NICS when buying for departments. Those are big time customers for manufacturers when looking at the number of guns they purchase annually.

Okie-dokie.

 

[Kynoch]

Let's pray the Republicans get some good horses in the race this time. Christie turning up as the front runner would sure look like another 8 year dog fight for our rights ahead as well as a totally screwed up market staying that way.

If Christie is the GOP nominee, then the GOP has once again failed and the Democratic nominee (no matter who it is) will win.