He who controls the raw materials and manufacturing will control the supply chain.
Plenty of examples can be found in the history books. In situations where the U.S. was caught short on materials (ie:WWII) we innovate substitutions to fill the void. Rubber shortage....development of synthetic rubber and nylon. Gasoline shortages...development of gasoline "Cracking", allowed more fuel to be produced per barrel of oil. Shortage of transport ships....enter Kaiser's development of modular "Liberty Ship" construction.
If we come up short on materials, new innovations will fill the void.....if short on manufacturing capabilities, other industries will shift their priorities to meet the demand. That's the beauty of a capitalistic society....the freedom of society to create a solution.