Are ammo prices coming down?

[CZ223]

I recently noticed that the price of a box of 100 rounds of Federal 223 had dropped from $39.99 to $34.99 at Wal-Mart. About a week later they had 100 round boxes of Federal 45 ACP for $29.99. That is about $10 cheaper than Winchester and $8 cheaper than 2 50 round boxes of Federal. Needless to say, I bought 3 boxes of the 45 and 2 of the 223.

 

[ColtPythonElite]

Overall? Nope. Ammo will never be cheaper than it is right now. Today's prices will seem like a bargain in 5 years.

 

[Old Dog]

Ammo prices coming down? Ha ha! Not with the price of petroleum continuing upward.

At any rate, our Wal-Marts up here have had the 100-rd boxes of Fed .223 for $34.99 for the past couple of years. I'm seeing ammo prices rises in small increments (ten, thirty, fifty cents, a buck or two per box) steadily over the past year.

 

[SlowFuse]

I've heard that since some of the troops have been pulled out here and there that mil cartridges/components would go down in price because of surplus. Still waiting... And may be for a looong time!

 

[nyrifleman]

You also have to take into account inflation. It's not just ammo that's getting more expensive. Anyone been food shopping recently?

(I mean, I know... priorities! But food has gone up as well )

 

[Ignition Override]

nyrifleman:
True, but maybe the summer drought which really hurt crops and farmers won't have much influence on ammo components, or shipping costs.

 

[swift535]

.223 is significantly cheaper now than when I looked at buying an AR a few years ago. At one point it was nearing 0.50/rd and I decided an AR wasn't for me back then.

 

[Warp]

When was .223/5.56 nearing $0.50 a round? I have to wonder if you were looking in the right places.

 

[swift535]

Would have been a while ago but I think it was '08, I was considering buying an AK or AR and the .223 ammo was significantly more expensive.

 

[Warp]

Would have been a while ago but I think it was '08, I was considering buying an AK or AR and the .223 ammo was significantly more expensive.

Leading up to the '08 election you could buy .308 (or 7.62x51) for right at $0.50 a round (Lithuanian surplus was out in numbers at the time). 5.56 could be had for measurably less. I remember that much. How much less? Not sure because I wasn't buying.

 

[Zoogster]

In 2006 I remember the 100 round shotgun target loads at walmart were $12-$14.
Today they are nearly double that.


Inflation typically makes things cost double every 20 years. It has been nowhere near 20 years.

Material costs are not that much higher.

The market has changed from one where workers could demand things from employers to one where employers can get away with giving less to workers that want jobs. So employee costs are actually down, not up, making it cheaper to operate.

While transportation costs have gone up due to higher fuel costs.

So really they should not cost that much more.
I would say they charge more because they can. It is probably being realized as profit. Not because they have to charge more to make the same percentage of profit as they did, but because they can now get away with higher profits in a market that will still buy ammo anyways. The gun nuts that were buying rabidly around the Obama election showed that they can get away with making quite a bit more profit, and that some of the market is so nuts that all they have to do is wait and people will still eventually buy what is made, and sometimes even buy more because they panic when it goes up.
Then they can drop it back down slightly and people will buy massive quantities to hoard, even though in reality it still costs more than it should.
Take it up even further, then put on a sale for slightly less and people will rush to buy it even if you are still ripping them off compared to old profit margins.

All of this makes for a market where the customer has pretty much told the manufacturers they can act similar to the oil companies, and people will still buy their product. They can go up 60% in price for awhile, then drop it back down 10-20% and people think they are getting a great deal with their short attention spans.



Since the last election the number and percentage of new owners of firearms is also greatly increased. So the market is larger. So there is even more customers buying the products from a similar number of manufacturers. Which certainly makes them feel even more secure in profiting and moving their product even at increased prices.

 

[oneounceload]

The market has changed from one where workers could demand things from employers to one where employers can get away with giving less to workers that want jobs. So employee costs are actually down, not up, making it cheaper to operate.

HUH?!?

Where do you get this from? My wife's insurance has gone up 30% for Obamacare a program not even in effect yet. Every government has risen taxes to offset lost revenue, utilities are all up, fuel is all up, payroll costs are up

And "record" profits, especially for oil companies. Man, this is wrong - try looking at reality of that statement. Oil companies still make the right at the same percentage (about 8%) as they always have, yet government worker salaries and bennies have zoomed past inflation costs. The same effects for gun/ammo makers - their percentage of profits in relation to costs has not changed.

Demand for raw materials from China and India for lead and other metals is at an all time high, so raw costs are up.

The market has changed from one where workers could demand things from employers to one where employers can get away with giving less to workers that want jobs. So employee costs are actually down, not up, making it cheaper to operate.

To me, this makes it sound like you are an unemployed union worker. If profits are SO great, you should be opening up your own company - according to you, you should be able to make great profits while undermining your competition.......geez...

 

[Zoogster]

oneounceload the market is now one for employers more than the employees. There is many workers for every position that will accept lower salaries than before.

You can find many workers that will accept a job with limited and in some cases even no benefits and lower pay and be happy to have a job.
While back in 2006 jobs were competing over desirable employees, and increasing the number of incentives they put out to attract them.

It is very different.

The increased costs of healthcare out of speculation of Obamacare is precisely that, speculation increasing costs.
Plenty of nations have universal healthcare.
The reality is you already pay for emergency care of people without healthcare. And in many cases you pay more because an emergency visit is more expensive than another visit type, and people that can only recieve emergency and would be denied other types of care must get things handled as an emergency or not at all. Including things that could have been handled as a regular visit but instead go to the emergency room.


As for your wife's costs increasing? Statistically women use their insurance far more than men, and women are a much bigger cost, increasing everyones' premiums. They go to the hospital more and use their insurance more.
If her insurance is purchased indidivudally she has to pay for that. If it comes through an employer then typically everyone pays the same.
Obamacare actually prevents healthcare companies from charging women more than men, even though their projected costs are much higher than men in their sexually active and child bearing years, so men will actually have to pay an even bigger share of womens' healthcare services once it takes effect, giving women a cost break and charging men more to compensate.

 

[Ditchtiger]

Surplus 7.62x54r has dropped 25 percent, but it takes some looking to find it.

 

[swift535]

.22LR bulk packs at Wally World have gone way up over the last 6-7 years too. Thankfully I haven't had to buy any in a few years since I stocked way up, but I hear it's about $20 for the 550 packs of Federal. Still cheap shooting, but they cost $6 not too long ago and $11 when I finally planned ahead a bit.

 

[OARNGESI]

the federal 9mm actually went up

 

[doubleh]

One of the reasons is your dollar is worth significently less than it was three years ago.

9mm is my centerfire handgun plinker ammo. I used to shoot Blaser because it was so cheap it wasn't worth reloading because there was no savings. Blaser is over twice the cost now and I'm reloading 9mm. I really don't pay any attention to other centerfire ammo as I reload everything and have for many, many years, just not 9mm.

I passed by the ammo rack in Wally-World Tuesday and checked their supply of .22 LR. Not much in stock at all. They had one box of Federal bulk for a few cents less than twenty dollars. What little Remington and CCI available was more expensive.

 

[swift535]

Unfortunately I'm down to about 3-4k rounds of .22LR, so I'm going to have to give in and buy some more before too long. And it's going to suck.

 

[Ky Larry]

Except for rimfire ammo, I haven't bought any factory ammo in years. Reloading components are going up all the time, except for small pistol primers. They dissappeared from the shelves around here a few months ago. Looks like Obamanation II has started.

 

[Kynoch]

You also have to take into account inflation. It's not just ammo that's getting more expensive. Anyone been food shopping recently?

(I mean, I know... priorities! But food has gone up as well )

There are plenty of grocery items that are cheaper today then have have been in years. I bought a quart of Gatorade today. $.99 That's cheaper then it was in the 1980's.

Clothes are definately cheaper then they were 10-20 years ago and it's not because of there they are made. It's because of tough competition and distributor tiers being eliminated.

Even some fast food is cheaper then it was 20 years ago, even if inflation is not taken into consideration.

 

[Kynoch]

Overall? Nope. Ammo will never be cheaper than it is right now. Today's prices will seem like a bargain in 5 years.

Any proof?

While the military buying has nothing to do with today's ammo prices (the military has dedicated supply systems) I think ammo prices may very well continue to drop (as the OP has already shown) once the impulse buying finally ends and/or people run out of garage space.

The steep rise in ammo prices was based on an artificial demand spurred by concerns of ammo buying restrictions, concern for the state of the country and the inability to even find ammo for sale -- when they did they bought as much as they could. The increase was not something orderly that could be attributed to natural increases.

Much of this will have to do with competition between the different ammo makers for a diminishing market. I am actually sort of amazed that Wal*Mart has not bought an ammo maker (or at least gone into business with one) making Wal*Mart generic brand ammo...

 

[Kynoch]

In 2006 I remember the 100 round shotgun target loads at walmart were $12-$14.
Today they are nearly double that.


Inflation typically makes things cost double every 20 years. It has been nowhere near 20 years.

Material costs are not that much higher.

The market has changed from one where workers could demand things from employers to one where employers can get away with giving less to workers that want jobs. So employee costs are actually down, not up, making it cheaper to operate.

While transportation costs have gone up due to higher fuel costs.

So really they should not cost that much more.
I would say they charge more because they can. It is probably being realized as profit. Not because they have to charge more to make the same percentage of profit as they did, but because they can now get away with higher profits in a market that will still buy ammo anyways. The gun nuts that were buying rabidly around the Obama election showed that they can get away with making quite a bit more profit, and that some of the market is so nuts that all they have to do is wait and people will still eventually buy what is made, and sometimes even buy more because they panic when it goes up.
Then they can drop it back down slightly and people will buy massive quantities to hoard, even though in reality it still costs more than it should.
Take it up even further, then put on a sale for slightly less and people will rush to buy it even if you are still ripping them off compared to old profit margins.

All of this makes for a market where the customer has pretty much told the manufacturers they can act similar to the oil companies, and people will still buy their product. They can go up 60% in price for awhile, then drop it back down 10-20% and people think they are getting a great deal with their short attention spans.

Since the last election the number and percentage of new owners of firearms is also greatly increased. So the market is larger. So there is even more customers buying the products from a similar number of manufacturers. Which certainly makes them feel even more secure in profiting and moving their product even at increased prices.

You hit the nail on the head. The price drop the OP documented certainly isn't because Wal*Mart loves shooters. It's because they negotiated a better deal from the manufacturers and can thus sell at a lower price while maintaining their profit margins. They were able to do that because of a change in demand or supply.

OR their sales are lagging due to increased competition and they are tightening up their margins.

I'll make a prediction. If Romney is elected, if we don't enter any new wars and if Wall Street doesn't entirely crumble, prices will be lower than what the OP quotes in posting #1 on this thread by June 15, 2013.

What I am beginning to wonder is just how low prices might become if shooters chose to draw-down their supplies for a while rather than buy more? I would also add that many of the new gun owners (the LCP/LC9 crowd) certainly bought their two boxes when they picked-up their guns but I don't see them being huge consumers of ammo going forward.

 

[Warp]

Even some fast food is cheaper then it was 20 years ago, even if inflation is not taken into consideration.

...what fast food is cheaper??

I'm not that old. When I was in high school you could buy virtually any fast food meal out there with a $5, including tax. Now when I get a meal at McDonalds, Taco Bell, Wendy's, KFC, etc, I'm looking at handing over $7 or $8 of paper money more often than not.

 

[One_Jackal]

Fast food is more expensive than just a few years ago. Yet a sit down meal costs about the same. My wife and I went to Hardees a few weeks ago. All the burgers cost as much or more as a plate at the local cafe. I got chicken and dumplings for $5.95 - my wife got flounder for $7.95. Nothing at Hardees was under $6. Needless to say we went to the cafe.

 

[Kynoch]

Fast food is more expensive than just a few years ago. Yet a sit down meal costs about the same. My wife and I went to Hardees a few weeks ago. All the burgers cost as much or more as a plate at the local cafe. I got chicken and dumplings for $5.95 - my wife got flounder for $7.95. Nothing at Hardees was under $6. Needless to say we went to the cafe.

Fast food is cheaper in many places. This was brought on largely by Burger King going after McDonald's some years ago to build market share. Jack in the Box, Wendy's, Taco Bell and the regionals all got in the fight.

Pizza is definitely cheaper around here then it was 20 years ago due to competition.

A basic twin patty cheeseburger is $.99 at Burger King today -- at least around here. That's cheaper than in 1990.