Orcon
Member
Hey folks, now that we are in a post election world and the dust has begun to settle I thought this would be a good time to talk about the roller coaster that has been the firearms related market for the past 8 years and how we might be able to avoid the same clap-trap the next time it comes around. Please keep in mind that I am not down-playing the dangers of a reckless government nor those of a lawless despot, this analysis is merely...well, analytical.
As most folks have noticed the firearms industry went absolutely bonkers, nuts, jumped the shark in 2008. The fear was real. ZOMG TEHR GUNNA TAKE MAH GUUUUNNNNNZZZZZ!!!1 The huge market spike was not, despite what some will tell you, due to the gubmint mass buying arms and ammunition. Some of the market shifts can be attributed to new reloaders or shooters but most of it was directly influenced by the people who already have guns and already reload. The majority of the scarcity was a fantastic real world scenario of "the tragedy of the commons" an en masse form of the "Prisoners Dilemma".
Though I am loathe to quote wikipedia, it has the most succinct definition. The tragedy of the commons works thus:
"No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible." Stanislaw Jerzy Lec
The shortage problem arises from too many people using the dominant strategy of buying as much as they can (e.g. buying as many .22 LR bricks as the credit card allows) regardless of what the supply train can afford. This leads into a recursion loop that only exacerbates the problem. Following the .22LR theme, people who aren't even "gun people" tend to at least own a firearm chambered in .22 LR. So imagine their surprise when they go to buy a box of rounds only to find them unobtainable.The guy at the gun counter tells them that they better buy them where ever they find them because the gubmint's takin' it all. Crap! Better buy a couple of bricks when I see them!!
The recursion loop is a fancy term for the herd mentality, like a stampede. Every cow is running but few really know what they're running from, only that all the others are running so they better keep up. This was the stampede that trampled our supply.
The optimal strategy would have been to:
a.) already have the necessary arms/components on hand and supplement them accordingly without hoarding.
b.) make a measured but stead growth of accumulation of goods also without hoarding
I got into the reloading game in 2015 (would have started sooner but the market was nuts), I bought 4 firearms since 2008(that I would have bought regardless of the President) and managed to do just fine without paying through the nose for any of it. I didn't panic buy, I waited for market forces to normalize and I still managed to shoot as much as I cared to from 2008 to present.
This is a plea to reason, a call to refuse to participate in the stampede. I ask all of you to consider the pros and cons of the dominant strategy vs the optimal strategy when it comes to how, when and why we buy our firearms and firearms-related goods.
As most folks have noticed the firearms industry went absolutely bonkers, nuts, jumped the shark in 2008. The fear was real. ZOMG TEHR GUNNA TAKE MAH GUUUUNNNNNZZZZZ!!!1 The huge market spike was not, despite what some will tell you, due to the gubmint mass buying arms and ammunition. Some of the market shifts can be attributed to new reloaders or shooters but most of it was directly influenced by the people who already have guns and already reload. The majority of the scarcity was a fantastic real world scenario of "the tragedy of the commons" an en masse form of the "Prisoners Dilemma".
Though I am loathe to quote wikipedia, it has the most succinct definition. The tragedy of the commons works thus:
"The tragedy of the commons is an economic theory of a situation within a shared-resource system where individual users acting independently according to their own self-interest behave contrary to the common good of all users by depleting that resource through their collective action." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
From a game theory perspective, the game is divided into more or less two strategies. You can take only what you need and rely on others do the same (Nash equilibrium/optimal strategy) or you can exploit the system and take as much as you can for yourself (dominant strategy) ensuring that no matter what others do at least you got yours. If the supply line was infinite the dominant strategy would work every time and would necessarily be Nash.http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/game-theory/nash-equilibrium.php
"No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible." Stanislaw Jerzy Lec
The shortage problem arises from too many people using the dominant strategy of buying as much as they can (e.g. buying as many .22 LR bricks as the credit card allows) regardless of what the supply train can afford. This leads into a recursion loop that only exacerbates the problem. Following the .22LR theme, people who aren't even "gun people" tend to at least own a firearm chambered in .22 LR. So imagine their surprise when they go to buy a box of rounds only to find them unobtainable.The guy at the gun counter tells them that they better buy them where ever they find them because the gubmint's takin' it all. Crap! Better buy a couple of bricks when I see them!!
The recursion loop is a fancy term for the herd mentality, like a stampede. Every cow is running but few really know what they're running from, only that all the others are running so they better keep up. This was the stampede that trampled our supply.
The optimal strategy would have been to:
a.) already have the necessary arms/components on hand and supplement them accordingly without hoarding.
b.) make a measured but stead growth of accumulation of goods also without hoarding
I got into the reloading game in 2015 (would have started sooner but the market was nuts), I bought 4 firearms since 2008(that I would have bought regardless of the President) and managed to do just fine without paying through the nose for any of it. I didn't panic buy, I waited for market forces to normalize and I still managed to shoot as much as I cared to from 2008 to present.
This is a plea to reason, a call to refuse to participate in the stampede. I ask all of you to consider the pros and cons of the dominant strategy vs the optimal strategy when it comes to how, when and why we buy our firearms and firearms-related goods.
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