Demographics:The Underlying Facts of Violent Crime.

[Winchester 73]

During a retirement party at work today a strong argument broke out about gun control.A very liberal member of our group started talking about all the cops being killed by AK-47's and that these evil weapons should be banned.
5 South Florida's LEO's have been killed by gunfire in the last 6 months so this is a sore subject to those of us in Local Gov't. who work with LEO's every day.
Another one of our group refuted this charge saying that these weapons are not fully automatic,criminals will get their firepower by theft or on the black market,and the AWB from 1994 to 2004 was simply cosmetic and had no effect on crime rates.
He than offered the incendiary charge(half our group is black or Hispanic)that gun crime and all violent crime is demographically linked.That blacks making up 12 percent of the population commit 53 percent of the violent crimes and homicides,Hispanics 14 percent of the population commit 23 percent of same and Caucasians making up 73 percent commit only 23 percent of violent crime.
He went on to say almost totally Caucasian states such ND,SD,MT,AK,VT,UT,NH,WY, and ID have the lowest violent crime and homicides per 100,000 population and are shall issue CCW(AK and VT ,no permit needed at all) while IL,NY,MI,CA,MA,NJ,DC,etc.( most may issue or no issue) with a high black and Hispanic make up ,top the crime charts.
That Washington D.C since 1976 and Chicago since 1982 have banned handguns for private citizens,yet have been among the murder capitals of the USA since these laws have been enacted.
Our Liberal anti-gunner had very little to say after this deluge of common-sense was poured on top of him.
Do most of you believe that as Charlton Heston himself stated in a 1999 interview "its the demographics" when asked about America's high gun homicide statistic's?
I am not a racist ,but it seems irrefutable.I had to agree totally with my very numerical astute co-worker.Its just the facts.
Switzerland,Finland,Israel among other countries have very high firearms ownership but negligible gun crime.All are very homogeneous society's.

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

The numbers are what they are. The states settled by predominantly Nordic peoples tend to be the ones with the lowest violent crime rates.

I don't think that it has anything to do with race per se. My own theory is that it is more of a cultural thing. But the result is the same, at least at a superficial level.

I think that if you took babies of any racial background and raised them "Northern European style" for want of a better term, they would exhibit roughly the same tendencies to engage in violent crimnal behavior as people of Northern European background do, which is to say very little.

And I'm not tooting my own horn here either. I happen to come from Southern European stock. Southern Europeans tend to be somewhat more violent, as a group, than Northern Europeans.

And we must always keep in mind that none of the above is a valid basis for making judgements about individuals. There are plenty of violent Northern Europeans (Ever hear of the Aryan Nation prison gang, for instance?) and plenty of law-abiding blacks, Hispanica, Asians, etc.

Making judgements about individuals based on group characteristics is the act of a bigot.

 

[eliphalet]

I donno but the numbers make it hard to refute your coworkers claims. I know the area of So Calif. I grew up in, what the crime was then and what it was as the population changed. Like night and day. Places I would stand on the corner at midnight with my G/F, in the 60's I would avoid driving through 20 years later. Only changes were the folks there.
Cultural thing maybe but who creates the "culture"?

 

[akodo]

there is a classical statistics example where a study was conducted on childern in the early 1950s, just as the WW2 vets were 5-10 years into their new home, new wife, and new family. The researchers sampled children, relating cavities to vocabulary. It turned out that the more cavities a kid had the larger his/her vocabulary, and vice versa. 8 times out of 10 a bind data pick of cavity number allowed correct placement of a child in one of 12 vocabulary development groupings.

this is a REAL study, the numbers are undisputed. So does this mean feed your kid sugar and take away his toothbrush to make him smart? Does this mean keep your kid dumb so he has good teeth?

No. While cavity and vocabulary had a 80% prediction rate, the truth is this study only showed correlation, not cauzation. There happened to be a different variable that was glossed over. The study sampled 200 kids from ages 4 to 12. Turns out, age was a 98% predictor of vocabulary level, and a 88% predictor of cavity level. The youngest kids had zero cavities and the lowest vocabularies, while the oldest kids had the highest number of cavities and the highest vocabularies.


I suspect the same thing is going on here. Blacks and hispanics are on average much more likely to be at or below the poverty line, and have limited education, and were raised in a one parent household. I suspect that those 3 factors combined are much better predictors of crime rate. I suspect that amongst any ethnic group, you divide that group by income level, the lower the income level the more likely the person has a criminal record. Even in the predominantly caucasian states, it isn't the mid level manager who is making 60,000 a year who is doing the crime, it is the 16-22 caucasian son of the caucasian dead beat dad, with an alcoholic caucasian mother who is waitressing or on welfare living in a dumpy apartment or trailer park in the poor side of town.

 

[230RN]

Nah.

It depends on whether they or their ancestors are from countries which border on the Mediterranean Ocean.

There ya go.

 

[sublimaze41]

I have to go with the single parent factor as being the primary culprit. Mix this and an urban environment where the the density of crimes is high and you get a better idea of the underlying cause.

If you see guns glorified as a tool of violence, that idea is likely to be integrated into your thoughts. I grew up in envy of a friends Browning automatic shotgun, I had a cheap pump. Violence as related to guns was never an issue to me, that compulsive envy never left me as a child though.

Another example.... we always had plenty of guns and ammo around the house. I was welcome to hunt when I was of age and when given permission. One day my bike was stolen, I found it and the kid who took it laughed at me. You know what I did??? Toiletpapered his parents house. Did I get one of my father's guns???? No way. It's the way you are raised and the respect you have. Most single parent mothers in the inner city hardly have the tools necessary to raise their children in a discliplined way.

 

[Redd Flynt]

Hmmm, I live in a County of 4,500 people so as you may imagine I know most of the players by name. All the minority folks can be counted on two hands and they are all friends and great people. The "bad kids" are all caucasian. In reviewing who gets a "free room" at the gray bar hotel, they are low income, they did not finish high school, they rent vs owning a home, most use drugs, have gambling problems, use alcohol to excess, blame society for their problems, live in homes that are biological hazards, need I go on.

They are simply lazy. The Sheriff lets me check some of them out of jail for Community Service work and I find quite a few of them to be intelligent and affable people. They are just damn lazy. So they steal, deal drugs and get in trouble.

 

[Oleg Volk]

I suspect that amongst any ethnic group, you divide that group by income level, the lower the income level the more likely the person has a criminal record.

And both life-long poverty and criminal behavior are likely results of the same inability to get along with others...

 

[Harley Quinn]

Post #6 Redd, is there any that have redeeming value
For some reason we are going to go down the slippery slope and it happens all over everyday and if it is not some dictator killing people off. It is people (masses) killing each other off. Guess what, it is in the genes. http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/diapsids/metabolism.html

 

[Standing Wolf]

Blacks and hispanics are on average much more likely to be at or below the poverty line, and have limited education, and were raised in a one parent household. I suspect that those 3 factors combined are much better predictors of crime rate. I suspect that amongst any ethnic group, you divide that group by income level, the lower the income level the more likely the person has a criminal record. Even in the predominantly caucasian states, it isn't the mid level manager who is making 60,000 a year who is doing the crime, it is the 16-22 caucasian son of the caucasian dead beat dad, with an alcoholic caucasian mother who is waitressing or on welfare living in a dumpy apartment or trailer park in the poor side of town.

Yes, indeed, those are good predictors; unfortunately, poverty and ignorance tend to be effects rather than causes, and I'm afraid illegitimacy may be, too.

That said™, predictors are good things. They may not go quite the full distance, but better a certain distance than none at all.

 

[Dr. Dickie]

Always remember, Correlation is not causation.
There is a very strong correlation between the height of a person, and the length of their hair (the shorter the hair, the taller the person).
To be racist, you must believe that this correlation is a genetic trait in the race--absurd!
It is the culture that has develop in these large inner city areas.
To believe the high crime is caused by race, is stupid.
To believe the high crime is not correlated with inner city youths, but is instead the result of racist police policy, is the be PC.
PC is as much the problem here as anything else, as legitimate identification of the problem, and viable solutions to the problem, are dismissed as racist. Those that make the charges, make their living from the problem and have a vested interest in keeping it going.
As this relates to guns, it all comes down to the fact that guns don't kill, people do. Remember, correlation is not causation (this also applies to Global Warming as well!).
The reason gun bans do not reduce crime (or murder) is, it isn't the guns!

 

[Working Man]

I don't think that it has anything to do with race per se. My own theory is that it is more of a cultural thing. But the result is the same, at least at a superficial level.

I think that if you took babies of any racial background and raised them "Northern European style" for want of a better term, they would exhibit roughly the same tendencies to engage in violent crimnal behavior as people of Northern European background do, which is to say very little.

If what you are saying is that it boils down to parenting, values of the
immediate culture, opportunities, and expectations.... then I would agree
with you.

You just put it so horribly, horribly PC.
I wish we could get back to PC just being 2 letters in the alphabet.

 

[joffe]

It has nothing to do with ethnicity, but everything to do with multiculturalism.

When multiple cultures are clashed into one place, there are several ways one can go.. The individualist route, in which everyone is treated as an individual and expected to take responsibility for themselves and their own future, is how America was forged before the 20th century. People from all over the world came to pursue the American Dream and I don't see any Balkanization in America at that time. There was a 'melting pot'.

The current route, chosen by European countries and states with Europe as a model such as CA etc, promotes the view that individuals are a part of groups and that this group defines them more than they themselves do. The government acts very interventionally and encourages directly or indirectly to identify as part of a group rather than as an individual - these people then feel that they need to be 'loyal' on some level to their group by not learning English, by forming ethnic enclaves, in general creating animosity.

More than anything, crime is a result of socialist thinking on many levels. The ultimate socialist 'solution' to any crime is witnessed in states like the Soviet Union and North Korea, in which noone has the opportunity to be anything, criminals or otherwise. The State simply takes over the role of the criminal.

I have a feeling this thread is derailing quite fast, though, and that I may be a contributor. Personally I think it's very much on-topic, but I'm sorry if I contributed to its downfall.

 

[Autolycus]

You do realize that minorities have been repressed for a long time in this country. When you are treated like 2nd class citizens it can start to shape the culture into something it is not.

And if you dont think that racism exists today you are wrong. It is very common.

A study done by the U of Wisconsin found that white males with felony records were more likely to recieve callbacks for job interviews than black males with no felony records. It is an interesting read.

Not to mention that the influence of poverty is a huge factor. Ask yourselves why minorities are usually the poorer in this country? The poor white folks are also subject to the same conditions as many poor black folks.

As for those who think it is just an urban thing, then explain why poor folks in rural areas suffer as well. The trailer park jokes and what not are the same as the inner cities.

Basically where ever you have poor folks struggling to survive you will have crime.

 

[Autolycus]

Originally posted by Joffe: It has nothing to do with ethnicity, but everything to do with multiculturalism.

Please define multi-culturalism.

 

[Gato Montés]

Economics. Pure and simple. The culture that was created in our inner cities is a direct result of the economic conditions that they face. I live in a surrounding suburb of Milwaukee. Let's see what our friends down on the North Side have to deal with. A eroded tax base. So much for great schools! A stagnant housing market. So much for taking loans out to send my kids off to school. The outsourcing of almost all of our factory jobs, leaving the option of either McDonald's or Burger King, neither of which pays a livable wage nor is very respectable.

Now you can say that this is no excuse for violent behavior, which I agree, but we all really know whats going on in the inner city. If we brought back respectable factory jobs, something you could actually earn a living on, the motivation to join a gang would go way down.

 

[Autolycus]

I agree with Nasser. The facts are that corporate greed and outsourcing are helping to do this.

 

[doc2rn]

I think it all started with Ronald Regan giving amnesty to the 4 million illegal immigrants back in early 80s. Since then we have seen a 300% increase in illegal immigration with the hopes that they too will be amnestied. Guess what they have repressed the job market so much that wages have remained stagnant while cost of living has risen. Are we headed for a recession you bet, no matter what fantasy island George W is living on. He and his are sitting pretty on all the oil wealth they have accumulated.
Unemployment is reaching a high, the middle class is gone, and there still is no universal healthcare system in this great country, as a matter of fact among industrialized nations we are now dead last.
People arent repressed they are concerned about what is happening to them and they are lashing out. This violent behavior is a sign of colapse not progress, we as a nation are currently facing.
The people who have wealth are promoting grab their guns, because they do not want an uprising. Which will come if some real change does not happen in DC. Those who do not read history are doomed to repeat it.

 

[eliphalet]

If it isn't the people themselves here in the USA. Then I ask you to look at the society or country said people come from. What can be blamed for the situations there if not the people themselves?
We have in this world problem folks and percentage wise in many cases it tends to run ethnically. Not all mind you, some of the finest or worst on the planet can come from ANY group but the percentage of trends and actions of some groups far outweigh percentages of others.
One needs to look beyond the USA.
Look at country's and people such as the Japanese with no natural resources in all reality except the sea, or one's from other parts of the world that do have the natural resources to become a viable player economically in todays world but that live in chaos. For a large part it is the people themselves. Spinning it to blame outside sources doesn't change the reality just masks it.

 

[Harley Quinn]

Probable Cause

It is a biggie, and policy of a city is where it is at, along with the rules laid down by the courts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probable_cause

The extremes, bad cops, what they go to, is what is wrong. I was hassled as a youth. I am a white anglo saxon from the No Euro area. Guess there just wern't enough minorities in the San Fernando Valley at the time (50's). I did not realize how bad they were breaking the Law, until I became one (LEO 60's now retired). During the 70's it really started changing and now we are where we have come/are. Slippery slope for sure.

Lots of very good men and women in Blue, but similar to the few BG the barrel of apples are not all tainted as one may think. To stop and talk to someone and allow them to know you are watching is over. The immigration problem is real folks...

Here is one for you to chew on. Welfare may not be a good thing but it is a net for all legals and illegals also it appears.
****************
One county in CA USA...

Illegal Aliens Receive $37 Million From County In November
Written by Carol Rock
Sunday, 06 January 2008
Welfare and food stamp benefits soar $3 million higher than September payout.

New statistics from the Department of Public Social Services reveal that illegal aliens and their families in Los Angeles County collected over $37 million in welfare and food stamp allocations in November 2007 – up $3 million dollars from September, announced Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich.

Twenty five percent of the all welfare and food stamps benefits is going directly to the children of illegal aliens. Illegals collected over $20 million in welfare assistance for November 2007 and over $16 million in monthly food stamp allocations for a projected annual cost of $444 million.

“This new information shows an alarming increase in the devastating impact Illegal immigration continues to have on Los Angeles County taxpayers,” said Antonovich. “With $220 million for public safety, $400 million for healthcare, and $444 million in welfare allocations, the total cost for illegal immigrants to County taxpayers far exceeds $1 billion a year – not including the millions of dollars for education.”


HQ

 

[Javelin]

I don't think it is a simple thing such as race that determines crime. It is much more deeper. I believe it has to do with the situation and environment in which persons are brought up.

I honestly thank God that I grew up and given the things I was. It was truly a blessing irregardless that my parents and upbringing was not silver lined (I grew up middle lower class).

Alot of folks didnt get that chance to see a world other than the inner-city. And because of this ultimately only know how things are done violently because that was how their home or upbringing showed them (or lack of a home). Obviously this is not an excuse for ones' actions but it is what it is. The statistics show this in addition to the genetic makeup of an individual. Just don't get sucked into hate as it is too easy to point fingers and be evil towards one another. Be safe.

 

[Autolycus]

Harley Quinn: Please post links to your article. Thanks.

 

[joffe]

Please define multi-culturalism.

I just did. 'Multiculturalism' is a policy or a result of a policy in which socialists use arbitrary state power to manipulate society, in which people are treated primarily as part of groups rather than individuals, and in which their skin color or the history of their associated group has more say than their individual qualities. 'Positive racism', yet nothing positive about it.

 

[Harley Quinn]

Here is one that I found for you. I actually got e-mailed if from a friend who still lives in Los Angeles and was telling me it has just gotten worse and I should be very happy I am retired. Yea I am happy to have made it this far 66 last year.

http://www.immigrationwatchdog.com/?p=5507

This might help, maybe not. But you can follow it up from now on

 

[junyo]

If you look at the root cause of the incarceration of blacks and Hispanics a pretty good percentage of it can be traced back to drug prohibition, whether directly, or due to the activity of the gangs and related organized criminal enterprise that benefit from the drug trade. The US has created an incentive structure that consists of limiting the income/social status available to poor, uneducated males (not just minorities), while creating a ridiculously lucrative business with low barriers to entry save a high tolerance for risk and/or a propensity for violence. Cycling them in and out of the systems breaks up normal family dynamics, but more importantly normalizes the pattern in young people's mind. Whereas in one neighborhood high school football and college are the norm, in another occasional jail terms and drub dealing are the expectations. As Stephen Levitt detailed in Freakonomics, it's a simple case of rational actors looking at their options to work/live/make ends meet and based on their experiance, making the decision that drug dealing is more likely to enable them to achieve their jails than school or a job at McDonalds. Of course, it carries a greater risk of being shot, but realistically the government has also gone out of their way to disarm most everyone except your competitors, and made it unlikely that acts of preemptive violence against them will be reported unless there's a body, or an innocent gets caught in the crossfire, which mitigates the risk somewhat. Of course LEOs in Florida get shot, it's a major drug entry point, with millions of people in the "drug mule" demo. Every traffic stop is potentially someone risking years in jail, millions of dollars, or violence against themselves or their families - it's reasonable expectation that some people are going to attempt to use violence to get out of that situation. And of course high population areas have a bigger issue; there's more profit available and therefore greater incentive toward illicit activity and protecting such activity. Heck, when you list states like ND,SD,MT,AK,VT,UT,NH,WY, they're not just all almost exclusively Caucasion, they're all almost exclusively empty. North Dakota has 9 people per square mile, Wyoming 5. Florida has 300. New Jersey has 1,100.

One wonders what the stats looked like during Prohibition, or what they'd look like without the government's social engineering.

Also, I'd theorize that in any population will find that the demographic majority commits fewer crimes. If there are activities that the most of the majority want to engage in they just make it lawful, it would be a fairly self loathing society that had most of it's citizens as criminals. Again, with Prohibition, regardless of whether the idea was sound or not, once a critical amount of the demographic majority found themselves at risk of being effected by the law it was repealed.