How Much Capacity Is Needed?

[ACIinventor]

Here's my take on this subject:
Given the average number of shots fired during a gunfight is 3, a handgun with high capacity may not be needed. Of course, there are always examples where high capacity saved the day. But those instances are rare. Using the 3 shot average, that means my 1911 and two spare magazines (25 rounds total) should be sufficient for fighting up to 8 adversaries. This is a mathematical estimate that accepts my skill level being equivalent to the shooters the 3 shot average was based upon. I consider my skills to be above that average and work to develop and maintain my skill level. However, the prospect of taking on 8 adversaries with a handgun is daunting. I would give a more reasonable limit on the number of adversaries me and my 1911 can handle to be about 3 to 4. The 1911 is my everyday carry choice because I'm not expecting to engage in a gunfight with more than 4 adversaries. If I knew there were going to be more, I would carry a long gun with the pistol as backup. So any argument about ammo capacity is really about how many adversaries you realistically expect to engage in a possible gunfight. Military and law enforcement needs the high capacity because of the probability they will face many adversaries during their work. Most armed citizens simply won't ever face that much danger. This is among the reasons even the 'old/obsolete' revolver still performs admirably as an everyday carry defense tool. Using my calculations, a 6 shot revolver should see you through a defense from two adversaries with an additional two if you're carrying 6 more rounds and reloading skills are up to par.

I consider my 1911 a 'get out of trouble gun'. It's my everyday carry pistol that I will use to remove myself from danger. So I can escape or possibly retrieve a long gun.
I consider high capacity handguns 'get into trouble guns'. They should be used as backup to a long gun when one is deliberately moving to danger. Armed citizens aren't required to seek danger. Military and law enforcement seek it all the time.

Overall, for armed citizens, the amount of ammo to carry should be sufficient for three adversaries. 3 shot average times 3 equals 9 rounds total, at absolute minimum. A few more rounds will be better. But a high capacity handgun with 15 round magazines (46 rounds total) used as everyday carry is excessive. The mathematical estimate comes out at about 15 adversaries. The chances an armed citizen will face so many is incredibly small. You'll have better luck winning the lottery! And if you do actually face so many, its not going to matter if you're carry enough ammo. Your chances of surviving such an encounter is pretty much nil anyway. If you know you're going up against 15 adversaries, it's time to call your friends with guns.

Caliber plays a role in this subject too. Larger, more potent calibers will enhance survival given the small number of shots per adversary. You've got to stop the attack of the first adversary before you can deal with the second, then the third, and so on. 9mm, a typical high capacity caliber, is less likely to stop an attack with that 3 shot average compared to .45acp or other more potent calibers. As the number of adversaries goes up, the amount of time you have to defend yourself goes down. You will be lucky if you have the time to fire more than one shot before you have to deal with one of the other adversaries. This argues that you carry the most powerful handgun you can effectively shoot, not necessarily the handgun with the most capacity.

Timmy Green - former US Army Military Intelligence Officer and currently Firearms Inventor
Angle Degree Indicator, Guardian Grip, Second Zero...

 

[JR24]

Problem with averages is half the field is above average, and some poor sod gets to set the curve.

That said, 8+1 is inside my comfort zone and I'm happy there, I don't care for going much less.

But I certainly don't agree that 15+1 and spare mags is excessive, plenty examples everywhere showing 3 won't stop the bad guy every time (or even most of the time) and more on tap surely can't hurt.

Reality is if we are basing decisions on statistics, carry isn't necessary for the vast majority of the folks who CCW, so you're already planning for a worst case, statistically speaking, scenerio. No reason to get hung up on averages during a statistical anamoly to begin with.

 

[mcb]

Actually half of them are not necessarily above or below the average. That would be called the median and it can be different than the average. Not sure if anyone has calculated the median to compare it to the average.

"You can never have too much ammo, unless you're drowning, or on fire."

Capacity doesn't matter, until it does, and then it matters a whole lot.

I most often carry a J-frame and one reload, go figure...

 

[twarr1]

If the average number of shots fired in a gunfight is 3, is that a true average or an average of values within 1 standard deviation? What round count would be required to cover 3 (sigma) standard deviations.? 6 sigma?
Since standard deviation is limited by the dataset, what about scenarios that haven't been included? The infamous Unknown Unknowns.
I agree a carry weapon's use should be to remove oneself from a dangerous situation. There is something to be said for suppressive fire, depending on the circumstances. Or maybe that's just my old military training being misapplied. Interesting nonetheless. I look forward to other's comments.

 

[mcb]

Do we count incidents where no shots are fire? That would effect the average and median fairly dramatically.

 

[JR24]

I would imagine no.

 

[LeftyRed]

Instead of average, I would say THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY.

And where does it states it takes three shots on average PER thug?
It’s been three shots per incident. THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of thugs don’t stand a fight. They are cowards looking for a quick target not highly trained Spec Ops trying to take you out.

 

[jmr40]

No one ever walked away from a gunfight and said, "I wish I'd had fewer rounds." Someone famous is credited with a very similar quote, but I came up with that all on my own before I heard that someone else beat me to it.

Never count on being able to reload. One big difference between common citizens and LE or military is that we aren't trying to be offensive. The idea is do what we need to do then escape. LE or military are expected to be on the offensive and end a situation increasing the need for reloads.

Larger, more potent calibers will enhance survival given the small number of shots per adversary.

That was disproven nearly 100 years ago, yet the myth persists. All of the commonly used rounds such as 9mm, 357 mag and Sig, 40 S&W, and 45ACP all do about the same thing on human threats with equal number of rounds when used with comparable ammo.

Don't get me wrong, I own and shoot several 1911's and other pistols in 45 ACP. Even carry one if the situation dictates it as an option. But I have just as much confidence in 8 rounds of 9mm as 8 rounds of 45. My preference is due to the fact that 2 of my most accurate pistols just happen to be 45's. If longish shots, or precision are more important for that situation I choose those guns, but not because of the cartridge.

How much is needed. I carry guns with anywhere between 6-17 rounds of ammo depending on the situation. But as a rule I prefer the guns I have with 10+1 capacity if keeping it concealed is a priority. In cases where my dress makes it harder to conceal a 10 round gun only then do the 6 or 7 round guns get carried. On a gun kept for HD or in a vehicle glove box 15-17 rounds.

 

[LeftyRed]

I have never heard of a civilian self defense shooting needing more than three or four rounds, and I think I’m being generous. Surely never heard of one needing to reload. And there are hundreds of documented incidents of these. And it’s not 51% never had too, it’s like 99.9999%!

To quote war saying is just folks trying to justify their “load out.” LOL And you can carry what you want want, or you can post on the internet what you say you are carrying. But I really doubt real people are going around armed with two pistols and five magazines. But never say never.

And besides lots of ammo, I always wondered:
1) do they have fire extinguishers?
2) do they drive a Volvo?
3) do they have a USCCA membership?
3A) if not, do they have a lawyer on retainer?
3B) if so has said lawyer OKed their “load out”?
4) do they not smoke or eat fatty foods?
5) do they have six months or income in their emergency savings?
6) oil changed and tires rotated on time?
7) do they know what an IFAK means? And can they properly use a SWAT-T?

They seem really focused on such a once in a thousand lifetime possibility of getting caught in a fire fight in downtown USA without a reload or CAS, but will probably die of diabetes or stroke or a heart attack due to their lifestyle.

Lefty

 

[Hartkopf]

The entire argument is silly. I can comfortably carry 20 rounds for 18 hours a day so I will. Carrying only 8 rounds will not make my life easier so no need for ME to carry less.

If the worst happens, I will use no more ammo than I need to. If a self defense situation takes 2 rounds, I’ll have 18 left.


Joe B and Bloomy definitely think 5 is enough. I’m proud not to be on their side of this discussion.

 

[UncleEd]

Lefty Red,

You make too much sense. So I
politely ask that you refrain from
other comments.

 

[.38 Special]

Every poster on every capacity thread ever: "I carry exactly the right number. Anyone who carries more is some sort of tacticool gamer type, and anyone who carries less is just asking to get killed in a gunfight".

 

[WrongHanded]

I don't worry too very much about capacity.

The recent acquisition of a G33 has replaced the slightly bulkier and heavier P224 for my "small gun" carry. The G33 is a 9+1, and the P224 is a 10+1. Well the last round in either is a hard push into the magazine and a harder push to seat in the gun. So now I'm carry 8+1 in the G33. No need to cry.

However, my G22/31 came with 15 round magazines, and 15 round magazines are easier to find than 10 rounders. So I carry the 15s. But again, a full mag is harder to insert into the gun with the slide forward, so it 14+1. Oh well. I'd carry 10 round mags if that's what the gun came with.

Bigger guns are easier to shoot well. If that also means a greater capacity, that fine by me.

 

[LeftyRed]

Every poster on every capacity thread ever: "I carry exactly the right number. Anyone who carries more is some sort of tacticool gamer type, and anyone who carries less is just asking to get killed in a gunfight".

True! Wish these threads and caliber comparisons were banned!

 

[mavracer]

Maybe 0, Maybe 50+ or maybe you lose anyway.

 

[mcb]

True! Wish these threads and caliber comparisons were banned!

What fun would that be. You got to beat those dead horses every once in awhile to ensure they stay dead.

 

[unclenunzie]

I have found 27 ounces of pistol the sweet spot for concealment and comfort. Whatever service caliber fits the most rounds I can shoot well is my choice. Today it's my P365XL 9mm at 12+1. A spare mag makes the total 25. I like having half a box of 9mm on me in a comfortable package. If I can avoid confrontation that will always be first, second, and third choice. However, should I be set upon by a gang of well trained armed men intent on killing me, I will run away screaming like a little girl. Maybe they will be confused long enough for me to get away.

 

[Zack856]

Sometimes I'll carry a 6 shot small frame snub .38. Sometimes I'll carry a government 1911 with two spare mags. No matter if I have 6 or 28 rounds, I really don't intend to shoot twice or at center mass. If the gun, grip, sights, and training all come together perfectly for you than I think the single round in the chamber is plenty. If I lived In a more rural area it wouldn't be a big deal to dump 20 rounds in a bad guys general direction but personally for where I live the population is too dense for me to be comfortable missing even once so carrying two extra single stack mags is already overkill.

 

[Telum Pisces]

You carry want you want to and feel comfortable doing so. I'll carry what I feel comfortable with and do that. Really easy. But that takes thinking for yourself and not depending what others on the internet think and feel.

I have seen full size handguns become paper weights after they have been unloaded on a perp. I have seen a single shot do the trick. There's no magically gun or capacity to be able to cover all your basis.

 

[The Glockodile]

...but will probably die of diabetes or stroke or a heart attack due to their lifestyle.

Thou shalt not malign the tactical gut!!!

 

[WheelGunMan]

@mcb Capacity doesn't matter, until it does, and then it matters a whole lot.

Great point!

I switched from revolvers to pistols because of capacity. I keep a spare mag accessible but not on my person. 7+1 is my minimum now. My 17+1 P30 is relegated to the nightstand. My 5-shot LCR357 loaded with me.38Spcl ARX ammo is always close by when I'm settled in for the evening.. of course a lot of other fire power is close by.

 

[fxvr5]

Man, there's a lot of BS in that first post.

First, there's no way to predict how many rounds will be required.

Second, there is data showing that there is no big advantage in effectiveness with larger calibers. (Except in % incapacitation failure with calibers 32 and less. See below.)

In fact, the data show that 380 Auto, 38 Special, 32 Long and Auto, 357 Magnum (and 357 SIG) and 22 rimfire all required less rounds, on average, than a 45 to incapacitate the attacker. That's actual data, not wishful thinking. The 45 is not magical. Really.

Resources:
http://www.activeresponsetraining.net/an-alternate-look-at-handgun-stopping-power

https://www.police1.com/officer-sho...5-rounds-of-ammo-on-the-job-clGBbLYpnqqHxwMq/

 

[gnappi]

When will it ever end? When it occurs I don't think the bad guy who lies in the morgue gives a hoot how many rounds were left in his opponent's gun, or what statistic his GSW supports.

 

[JohnKSa]

1. LEARN about the topic so you have a realistic idea of what preparation means for the scenarios you want to be prepared for.

You will need to understand important facts like: Even the stone-cold, natural born shooters that populate forums like THR miss in gunfights. Bad guys can shoot too, and even the ones that are bad at it sometimes get lucky--and even really good shooters tend to miss more after being shot. Bad guys don't always come in onesies and reality determines what your order size will be, not your own wishful thinking. Bad guys don't always run when they see a gun--some even keep shooting back after getting hit once or twice.

2. DECIDE what you want to prepare for.

Keep it realistic. Trying to prepare for a well-planned ambush by 8 armed attackers might not be something you want to spend a lot of time on unless you can wear full body armor at all times and go everywhere with no fewer than 4 highly skilled and very loyal friends. On the other hand, you might want to decide to prepare to a higher level than assuming that every bad guy you encounter will be unable to accurately fire a pistol, and/or will run as soon as resistance is encountered. Understand that what you decide to prepare for doesn't place any limits on what kind of scenario that life will actually serve up.

3. PREPARE to the extent that is reasonable given your life circumstances and ASSESS your preparedness based on realistic evaluation of your capabilities.

Shooting accurately under stress is not a natural skill. Drawing quickly from concealment isn't something people do well without practice. Shooting while moving can be a very important skill in the real world where it turns out that people instinctively move to avoid being shot. Learning everything you need to know on your own takes longer than learning it from a good instructor. You don't need to take weeks and weeks of high-speed, low drag classes, but you will need to do some training. You will need to have good equipment and know how to use it. This should include some method of testing/evaluating your performance so you have a realistic idea of what your capabilities are. Otherwise you have no idea of whether or not you really are prepared. Think about the scenarios that you chose not to try to prepare for and come up with at least a basic plan for what you'll do so you don't end up being reduced to running in circles while screaming and shouting in any scenario you didn't prepare for.

Your realistic preparation/training will help you adjust your ideas of what equipment works best for you, including what capacity makes sense for your level of preparedness.

That's it. Three simple steps. The problem is that even these three simple steps can cause people a lot of trouble.

 

[Charlie Martinez]

The thought of running out of ammo in the middle of a conflict is pretty disturbing. I usually leave the house only with the five shots I can load in my revolver but maybe I'll get a speed loader and put another 5 in my pocket. Still some folks feel that isn't enough either and they may be right. I hope I never have to find out.