How will Trump tariffs on steel/aluminum affect ammo prices?

[TTv2]

For those who aren't aware, the news was there's a likely tariff coming on steel and aluminum from foreign sources. I'm wondering, his is going to impact the prices of stuff like Wolf, TulAmmo, and Brown/Silver/Golden Bear ammo? What about CCI/Federal Aluminum?

 

[lemaymiami]

I doubt it will have the slightest effect since what we're seeing is basic negotiation, nothing more. First you demand things that are likely to be at the very least difficult to swallow - then as everyone comes to the table you allow them to get you to retreat to what you actually want....

That said, turning around our real world trade situation won't be easy at all.... Unlike previous presidents -our current guy actually intends to do something about it.... and that will be tough.

 

[RETG]

I believe it is only for imported steel and/or aluminum not manufactured products.He is trying to keep the steel and aluminum manufactures in the USA in business.
Since brass is made from copper and tin. The USA is fourth in the production of copper, and fifth in smelting of copper. As for tin, not sure we even have any production; China is number 1, but a lot is produced in S. America and even my old haunt Thailand and Vietnam.
So, I would bet it will no affect ammo or imported guns, but could affect guns manufactured in the USA. At least that is what while sitting on my mountain.

 

[hso]

Expect prices overall to rise since US manufacturers can't ramp up production to meet demand that higher priced foreign materials will shrink.

 

[Cayce Charles]

To a novice it SOUNDS like a good idea if it protects American jobs. I will admit I don't known the long term effects. I do know he did the right thing overriding Husseins ' no more coal mining allowed' policy. That saved a lot of families in W.V, Penn, In, Ky, Tenn.

 

[AlexanderA]

Assuming that these protective tariffs on steel and aluminum are actually put into effect (and that's a big if), you can expect a wave of retaliation from our trading partners. (Already the European Union announced that it is preparing to raise its tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, Levis jeans, and bourbon whiskey.) It's the back-and-forth cycles of tariff retaliation that will end up having much more negative effect than the initial round. We should have learned the lessons from previous trade wars.

 

[Hokie_PhD]

Assuming that these protective tariffs on steel and aluminum are actually put into effect (and that's a big if), you can expect a wave of retaliation from our trading partners. (Already the European Union announced that it is preparing to raise its tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, Levis jeans, and bourbon whiskey.) It's the back-and-forth cycles of tariff retaliation that will end up having much more negative effect than the initial round. We should have learned the lessons from previous trade wars.

As you said, if they go into effect.
People are going nuts over this, but Trump said he wants to renegotiate our bad trade deals. Since we get dumped on and taxed out of markets (Ford pulled out of Japan because the tax was insane, Korea keeps our autos out by high tariffs but cried the blues when we doubled the tarried on their cars to a whopping 4%) He has to do something.

Imagine being in a terrible bargaining position where the other side got a great deal and you got screwed say a bad divorce settlement. How do you get the other side to agree to a new deal that will improve your position and hurt theirs. It’s almost impossible. So he’s trying this.

I don’t know if it’ll work but it cant be much worse than our long term direction we’ve been on of loss of jobs, trade deficits, growing debt, etc.

 

[tarosean]

I'm wondering, his is going to impact the prices of stuff

you ought to be worried about everything else you touch on a daily basis..

 

[ridgerunner1965]

once it is in place and US production ramps up. metals should be cheaper.mite take a year or two from what I understand.

the biggest thing is that the tariff will make things more equal between chinas crappy wages for workers and our higher wages for our steel workers.

the trickle down thing is where we will benefit.more steel workers and more of them buying usa products.

the economy is like a battleship,you don't turn that thing 180 degrees like a skidsteer.

yu do a number of things to bring it into a 12 mile circle.

the tariff is just one of those things that trump is doing.

as my old gpa used to say "lead,follow or get the hell out of the way of my wagon"

 

[AlexanderA]

People are going nuts over this, but Trump said he wants to renegotiate our bad trade deals.

Renegotiation might be a good thing, but the danger is that the process could spin out of control. Like it or not, we have an interdependent worldwide trading system, with a lot of moving parts.Touch one part, and it has unforeseen effects on many other parts. It doesn't look like Trump himself has thought this through, and is just going along with the last adviser he's spoken to.

 

[Hokie_PhD]

Renegotiation might be a good thing, but the danger is that the process could spin out of control. Like it or not, we have an interdependent worldwide trading system, with a lot of moving parts.Touch one part, and it has unforeseen effects on many other parts. It doesn't look like Trump himself has thought this through, and is just going along with the last adviser he's spoken to.

It could, or he’s willing to blow up the whole system in the hope of fixing the mess we’re in.

He could see us sinking and if we don’t do anything we’re going down with the ship. So he’s willing to take a chance.

Frankly I have no idea what he thinks. I see him as a big gambler. When he wins he has “Big Beautiful Wins” but when he loses he loses He loses big too.

So I really have no idea. I only hope and pray he does a better job than what we’ve had fr9m both parties.

 

[exbrit49]

you ought to be worried about everything else you touch on a daily basis..

Well said! I deal around the world on a lot of different commodities. Unfortunately Trump doesn't appear to be being overly knowledgeable or truthful. The US steel industry produces well over 70% of our current requirements! I see the older steel factories around the area and most are already running at close to capacity. Many of the mills and foundries are old and not really suitable for modernization. We have some new Steel plants in the area but they produce specialty steels for limited uses. Right now if China and several other exporters, who already do pay tariffs shut off supply, we would be in deep trouble. In addition if Trump thinks there will be no severe retaliation! He's sadly mistaken.
Our cost of living will increase significantly should he continue on a course. firearms are made from steel and aluminum hang on to you billfolds if he goes ahead!

 

[JohnKSa]

This discussion needs to remain focused on the potential/expected effects of steel/aluminum tariffs on ammunition/firearm prices. It won't stay open if it becomes a general discussion about Trump and his trade policies since that is off-topic.

 

[jmorris]

The impact would be less than gallon gas price fluctuations for something like an upper or even a pistol.

Gas prices can fluctuate $.20-.60 in any given week and no one pays much attention. I doubt anyone be but me has noticed where the steel I use has come from. Unless it’s 4130 or such, it has came from Mexico,Turkey and the like for a long time now.

 

[CoalTrain49]

To a novice it SOUNDS like a good idea if it protects American jobs. I will admit I don't known the long term effects. I do know he did the right thing overriding Husseins ' no more coal mining allowed' policy. That saved a lot of families in W.V, Penn, In, Ky, Tenn.

I see trains loaded with coal everyday on the BNSF rail. Thousands of tons of it all headed to a ship to be exported.

Where is that coming from if they aren't mining coal in the US? I know where it comes from so no need to answer that.

We import a lot of our steel from Brazil. From what I read we also export a lot of our coal to Brazil, 2M tons in 3 months last year. Brazil would be one of the countries targeted in the tariffs because we import so much of their steel. Any guesses what Brazil is going to do? They'll put an import tariff on coal and the price of brass will go up. Copper melts at 2000° and the furnaces are fired by coal. So are steel mills.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/06/investing/coal-trump-tariffs-brazil/index.html

As far as ammo prices, I agree with hso, the price of ammo is going up even without tariffs. This will happen because of the price of copper, which is the primary metal in brass (70% copper, 30% zinc). All one has to do is look at the forecast for the price of copper to realize where we are.

Magtech and CBC ammo is made in Brazil. I see a fair amount of it on the ground at the range.

 

[CoalTrain49]

Well said! I deal around the world on a lot of different commodities. Unfortunately Trump doesn't appear to be being overly knowledgeable or truthful. The US steel industry produces well over 70% of our current requirements! I see the older steel factories around the area and most are already running at close to capacity. Many of the mills and foundries are old and not really suitable for modernization. We have some new Steel plants in the area but they produce specialty steels for limited uses. Right now if China and several other exporters, who already do pay tariffs shut off supply, we would be in deep trouble. In addition if Trump thinks there will be no severe retaliation! He's sadly mistaken.
Our cost of living will increase significantly should he continue on a course. firearms are made from steel and aluminum hang on to you billfolds if he goes ahead!

Exactly.

You can live without ammo.

 

[Cayce Charles]

Assuming that these protective tariffs on steel and aluminum are actually put into effect (and that's a big if), you can expect a wave of retaliation from our trading partners. (Already the European Union announced that it is preparing to raise its tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, Levis jeans, and bourbon whiskey.) It's the back-and-forth cycles of tariff retaliation that will end up having much more negative effect than the initial round. We should have learned the lessons from previous trade wars.

Can't get much higher. India last week announced they were LOWERING their tariff on H-D from 100% to 75%. We charge them NONE on their BSA's imported into the U.S.

 

[CoalTrain49]

Can't get much higher. India last week announced they were LOWERING their tariff on H-D from 100% to 75%. We charge them NONE on their BSA's imported into the U.S.

Why would Harley care what the tariff is in India.

They have their own plant in India. It's been there for quite awhile. I'm sure that a few models are imported but I doubt it's very many. They also have a plant in Brazil.

https://www.indiainfoline.com/artic...pens-india-assembly-plant-113101602287_1.html

How many people does BSA employ building motorcycles in this country? None.

 

[Ignition Override]

The problem I see would be a high future tariff on imported ammo, or (Especially) a ban on ammo from Russia.
Some of the lowest-priced ammo apparently is still produced in Ukraine or Romania, but with vast quantities imported from Russia, imagine the effect on overall prices if the President and Congress ever decided to ban their ammo.

President Obama banned Saiga rifles/shotguns, supposedly because Izhevsk was owned by people sanctioned during the Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine.

It's very plausible that---***needing Any pretext too deny access to a large quantity of guns by law-abiding citizens***---he simply had his staff look for specific Russian businessmen/politicians.

 

[BSA1]

As with any new law, regulation or policy the devil is in the details.

President Trump has announced that Mexico and Canada are exempt from the tariffs. President Trump also said the tariff is negotiable with other countries in exchange for more favorable trade agreements.

Once again I see the fear and panic on THR being driven by the liberal TV, print and Internet web sites such as yahoo.

The short term effects at the moment are with Wall Street investors trading and selling stock. Long term effect on real market price of steel is going to be slow to change as countries renegotiate their trade agreements. Gun manufacturers use small amount of steel compared to other industries such as car manufacturers.

 

[BSA1]

The problem I see would be a high future tariff on imported ammo, or (Especially) a ban on ammo from Russia.
Some of the lowest-priced ammo apparently is still produced in Ukraine or Romania, but with vast quantities imported from Russia, imagine the effect on overall prices if the President and Congress ever decided to ban their ammo.

Or maybe other manufacturers will see a demand that is not being met and will increase their production to meet it. Shameless capitalism in action.

 

[Ignition Override]

BSA1: the reasons I've kept a reserve of 14,000 rds. of steel-cased 7.62x39 ammo for two years are both retirement (a year ago) and possible import bans.

Living 12 min. from the private shooting club, it's so very easy to throw the SKS, SAR-1 or Maadi (etc) in the car and burn up 60 rds.

 

[theotherwaldo]

Don't care, because:
a) This needed to be done - negotiating without both a carrot AND a stick is pointless;
b) This permits us to update our legacy 1940s-era metals-production base;
c) This pushes us to improve and increase our ammunition production systems; and,
4) I reload.