Thoughts on Multiple Assailants, Hit Rate & Capacity

[Prosser]

The more I think about this, the more I like it, just not for the calibers he's using it for.
He also makes a 9mm version:
http://www.doubletapammo.com/php/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=654

However, where this would really shine is the big cases that aren't used to capacity.

.44 Special, .44 Magnum, maybe the .357 Magnum.

The most I can shoot out of a scandium revolver is 125 grains at 1204 fps, or 147 at 1131 fps. I suspect you could up the bullets weight to 180 grains, and send two 90 grain full wadcutters at the target, at 1300 fps, out of a full sized gun.
Don't know what they would run out of a snubby, but a full charge of 4227 or H110 would also light the badguy up at point blank range out of a snub;-). The wound channel would be substantial due to the velocity and the full caliber meplat.
You would effectively double your ammunition capacity in your 5 shot, while giving up
a bit of bullet weight for dual projectiles.
Thoughts?

 

[Kleanbore]

Posted by Prosser: The good news would be if the HP doesn't expand, you are hitting your target twice, ...

....or missing it twice.

 

[Prosser]

Goes without saying.

Certainly recoil would be increased as well, affecting accuracy. No free lunches with ballistics.

At least you've got twice as many projectiles, a major problem with snubs, and, this is one way to get around the states with 10 round magazine limits.

 

[Odd Job]

John, you may be interested to know what the distribution of skin breaches was in a sample of 150 live gunshot cases I processed in a hospital setting in South Africa in 2002.
Here is the overview:



There were two obvious anomalies (as pertains to this discussion). One was a self inflicted perforating injury and the other was a penetrating shotgun wound.
Then there were four anomalies from a medical and forensic point of view, where the appearances of the wounds and the information available to me was not conclusive in determining whether these were penetrating or perforating injuries (or GSWs at all).

If we err on the conservative side and assume those four cases represent the minimum number of hits possible, here is the breakdown of hits in all 150 cases:



If we assume the maximum number of hits possible, the numbers change only slightly:



It is important to remember:

1) The number of surface wounds does not necessarily equate to the number of hits.
2) A hit need not produce a penetrating or perforating wound. There were significant cases of tangential wounds (a graze injury) and one lucky blunt injury.
3) The modal injury is a single shot that perforates the individual. This does not necessarily mean there is no retained projectile or fragment thereof.
4) Most of these shootings do not involve LEOs (a suspect shot by an LEO would immediately be transferred to a private hospital if he remained at the scene of the shooting). This research took place at a trauma unit in a government hospital.
5) These patients were all alive on arrival at the hospital. I don't know how these data would change if a similar study was done at the district mortuary.

 

[Odd Job]

One other thing. In the cases above there will be a small error margin with regards to the number of hits, simply because a different number of hits can be involved when a person has one perforating injury and one penetrating injury. You can have three wounds, but anything from one to three hits:







In the first two scenarios it may be difficult to work out what happened in the hospital setting, especially if clothing was not available or not worn. If there is an absence of projectile fragments or bone fracture clues, the appearances can be equivocal for the purposes of this discussion. It is not always clear whether the bullet which has passed through an extremity is also the bullet currently retained in the body elsewhere.
You often get unreliable information from the patient with regards to this problem (how many shots were fired)...

 

[Skribs]

Odd Job, just making sure I understand: you're saying that in your experience, the BG was hit once 75% of the time?

I'm also curious as to how many of these people were stopped after X hits. For example, was the person shot twice, then bashed in the skull of the victim who was defending himself, and then decided to turn himself in to the hospital? Or was he put down immediately and the intended victim called 911 to say "pick this fool up."

 

[mortablunt]

Fascinating thread.

 

[Odd Job]

Hi Skribs, that's correct, the patient was hit once in 75% of all cases (possibly 77%).

I'm also curious as to how many of these people were stopped after X hits. For example, was the person shot twice, then bashed in the skull of the victim who was defending himself, and then decided to turn himself in to the hospital? Or was he put down immediately and the intended victim called 911 to say "pick this fool up."

That's much harder to comment on, in a study like this, because of ethics considerations. Patients had to agree to be research subjects: if they weren't keen I left them out.

I wasn't allowed to approach the police for background information or additional details when they investigated these shootings. In fact I was greatly restricted with what sort of questions I could ask the patient himself, the reason being that the ethics committee were concerned that questions not pertaining to the patient's medical history could contribute to increasing post traumatic stress. I was only allowed to ask whether there were intervening materials between the shooter and the patient.

Of course, if they volunteered information I could note it, but in general I would say the patient's account of what happened could not always be trusted. That's either because they honestly couldn't remember the details or they were distracted by pain, influenced by medication, worried about family members or their perception of what happened had been influenced by witnesses or first responders. There were several cases where I knew the patient was being deceptive (because the radiology didn't match his story) and there were at least two cases where the patient had interfered with the wounds before arriving at the hospital.
The majority of these patients arrived at the hospital via private transport, sometimes just being dumped at the door.

During the period I conducted this research we had 542 gunshot cases attending the hospital. That's in a four month period (and those numbers are down from the usual 150 cases a month because at that time the world summit on sustainable development was being held in Johannesburg and they had 15,000 extra police on the streets. Gunshots went down and stabs went up).
Between manpower limits (I worked alone with no external funding) and ethics considerations I could only get 150 cases. However the overall distribution of wounds matches my experience with other gunshot cases seen before 2002 when I worked permanent night duty as a radiographer in Johannesburg.
Conservatively I would say I have seen around 2000 gunshot cases where I had a role to play in the handling of the patient.

 

[heeler]

Wow,most interesting Odd Job.

 

[Prosser]

Nice reminder that Johannesburg is the murder capital of the world.

I notice you relocated.
God Bless you, and thank you for the information.

 

[JohnKSa]

Interesting data.

So we could look at it from several perspectives.

I'm making the unjustified assumption that each of these injuries was the result of a gunfight for the sake of the discussion.

About 80% of the gunfights ended with only one gunshot wound being sustained by the survivor.

About 20% of the gunfights resulted in multiple hits.

A person injured in a gunfight who survives to make it to the hospital has rarely been hit more than once.​

Thanks for providing that information. It's going to take awhile before I can really understand exactly what it's telling us.

 

[Skribs]

I'm not trying to say anything against your research, Odd Job, because it looks like you did put a lot of work into it, but I just don't see how it applies here. The only thing I could see it working with is in looking at the number of rounds needed to stop the BG, but as we do not have the results of people who were killed or even whether or not the wounded/killed individual was immediately stopped by the bullet, there isn't anything to apply here.

Like I said, interesting numbers and breakdown, but without the inclusion of those killed or more information on the encounter, I don't know how much we can take away from this.

 

[BADUNAME37]

I prefer my AR-15 with numerous rounds, as I want to be able to shoot through things like furniture and partition walls.

If more than one attacker were to come storming in, resulting in me fearing for my life, or the life/lives of those with me, I am going to fight respectively!

 

[Prosser]

I've been thinking about the data provided. One hopeful note is if shot once, a bunch of people decided retreat was better then valor, bad guys or good.

Perhaps there is hope in that. It does undermine the idea that you need two hits to persuade someone to end the fight.

You have 150 that participated in a gun fight, one way or another, and 150 survived, leaving the fight, and made it to a hospital/medical facility.

 

[Skribs]

Not knowing the situation or the other factors, we can't assume people stopped fighting after one hit.

*It is possible they were hit once as the result of a drive-by or a targetted attack where the attacker only got one hit. In this case, it wasn't a fight, they were the victim.
*You also don't know how many people died from one hit or ran off before a shot was fired. Not knowing the number of people scared off and not knowing the results of fatal shootings doesn't give us much to compare to.
*You also don't know they retreated - they could have taken one hit and then bludgeoned the shooter. All you know is they took one hit and lived.

Not related to the data, but I don't go with low recoil weapons to give myself time to evaluate between shots. I go with low recoil weapons to give myself time to evaluate between salvos.

 

[CDW4ME]

I posted this on the other forum, but may be valuable here too

Yesterday, I used a shot timer to conduct a speed & accuracy test of 4 different Glock pistols: 29SF, 30SF, 27, 26.
All of those ^ have a NY trigger (8#)
The 2nd shot times were not all that different, but consistent accuracy was.
I put a 6" circle on a larger target placed 6 yards (18 feet) away.
My goal is to keep all shots on the 6" circle, with the least amount of time from 1st - 2nd shot.
The 29 SF magazines had a Pearce +0 baseplate with room for pinky, the 30 SF had flush fitting magazines; I can't stand the pinky pinch from the 10 rounders.
Both the 26 & 27 had Pearce +0 baseplates with pinky rest.
The extra recoil generated by the 10mm and 40 S&W over 45 and 9mm rounds showed its self in this drill; the 29 and 27 misses were further out of the circle and the overall group measurement including those misses was larger; the 30 and 26 kept any misses very close to the 6" circle.
Basically, I shot the 30 and 26 insignificantly faster, but noticeably more accurate for 8 timed pairs (16 rounds) each.
I'm not quick at anything and I don't use a timer often (disclaimers), that being said, the average shot times (using full power HP ammunition) were .33 sec for the 30 SF (flush fitting magazine) and .25 sec for the 26 (pinky rest).
The main thing I noticed was that the misses with the 30 & 26 only missed that 6" circle by about an inch, would still be a pretty good hit; not so for the other two, they each had a couple of shots land several inches away.
I had been packing the 29 and 27 due to their greater power and I knew I was about as quick with them; but, despite the power advantage and near equal speed, accuracy can't be ignored.
I'm gonna start carrying the 30 and 26.
I'm really not warm & fuzzy about packing a 9mm but it was the fastest & most accurate and took noticeably less effort to keep the front sight on target.
Thanks timer???

Folks may want to conduct a similar test for themself to see what they really do best with.

 

[Prosser]

Would help if we knew what ammo you are using in the gun.

Recoil is NOT caliber dependent. It's bullet and powder weight.

Also I'm wondering if the grip diameter is affecting your accuracy as well.

Your ammunition selection is what is effecting your time and accuracy, NOT caliber.

I would you suggest you take your specific situation, and your observations, and apply them to YOUR situation. I can't help but think that with a variety of ammo selections you can find loads that work well for what you are doing with your guns, yet work better then the current loads you have.

It is possible for ammo companies to pick powders that are economical
and profit producing for them, that provide a really poor value to the customer, causing very hard recoil, and sometimes no velocity. Remington did this with .44 Special ammunition a long time ago.

My reloading experience was the 9MM was VERY hard to get a consistent load that was accurate with the number of guns I was loading for.
Sig liked a very heavy bullet and a max load. Same load a Browning High
Power didn't like. etc.

I have a hard time believing that 10MM ammo from Double Tap, or Buffalobore wouldn't combine accuracy with a bullet powder combination you feel comfortable with.

I notice people complain about .40 recoil, in guns similar in size to the 9mm.
If that's the case, get a lighter bullet load, or try different light bullet loads.

I just don't see 2-4 grains of powder increasing recoil tremendously, as people ascribe to the .40.

More likely poor powder selection by the loader, or a heavier bullet are the cause.

My Glock 30 experience was it was not very accurate at all with the junk
ammunition the range insisted you shoot through their gun.
230 grain Magtech, IIRC.

 

[Prosser]

10MM loads and recoil from doubletap:
http://www.doubletapammo.com/php/ca...ducts_id=45&osCsid=3rbr48uo7mnhe70angccsk4pq7
135 grain HP/1600 fps
Recoil Energy of 9 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 17 fps.

Caliber : 10mm
Bullet : 165gr Remington Brass Jacketed Hollow Point
Ballistics : 1400fps/ 718ft./lbs. - 5.0" bbl
1175fps / 506 ft lbs 100yds 5.0" bbl
Glock 29 - 1340fps Muzzle
Recoil Energy of 9 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 17 fps.Caliber

10mm
Bullet : 150gr. Nosler Jacketed Hollow Point.
Ballistics : 1475fps / 725 ft.lbs. - Glock 20
1400fps Glock 29
Recoil Energy of 8 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 16 fps.

Caliber : 10mm
Bullet : 200gr Nosler JHP
Ballistics : 1250fps / 694ft lbs. muzzle - 5"bbl
1083fps / 521 ft lbs 100yds 5"bbl
Glock 29 - 1195fps Muzzle
Recoil Energy of 10 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 18 fps.

Two rounds for one:
10mm 230gr. Equalizer™ Double Ammunition 50rds. $52.23
10mm 230gr. Equalizer™ Double Ammunition 50rds.
Click to enlarge

Double Ammunition.

Caliber : 10mm

Bullet : 230gr. two projectiles: 135gr. JHP and 95gr. lead ball

Ballistics : 1040fps/ 553 ft./lbs. - Glock 20
Glock 29 - 1000fps
Recoil Energy of 9 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 17 fps.

Caliber : .40 S&W
Bullet : Nosler JHP
Ballistics : 135gr. @ 1375fps / 567 ft/lbs- Glock 23 (4.0"bbl)
Recoil Energy of 6 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 14 fps.


Caliber : .40 S&W
Bullet : 150gr. Nosler JHP
Ballistics : 150gr. @ 1275fps / 542 ft/lbs- Glock 23 (4.0"bbl)
Recoil Energy of 7 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 15 fps.

Caliber : .40 S&W
Bullet : 180gr Nosler JHP
Ballistics : 180gr. @ 1100fps / 484 ft/lbs- Glock 23 (4.0"bbl)
Recoil Energy of 7 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 15 fps.

Caliber : .40 S&W
Bullet : 200gr Nosler JHP
Ballistics : 200gr. @ 1050fps / 490 ft/lbs- Glock 23 (4.0"bbl)
Recoil Energy of 7 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 15 fps.

Caliber : .45ACP
Bullet : 185gr. Nosler JHP
Ballistics : 1200fps - 592 ft./lbs. - 5" 1911
Recoil Energy of 9 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 17 fps.

Caliber : .45ACP
Bullet : 230gr. Brass Jacketed JHP made by Remington
Ballistics : 1010fps/ 521 ft./lbs. - 5" 1911
Recoil Energy of 10 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 18 fps.

Caliber : 9mm
Bullet : 80gr Barnes TAC-XP Lead Free
Ballistics : 80gr @ 1560fps / 433ft. lbs. from a G17.
Ruger SR9C 3.5" velocity - 1400fps.
Recoil Energy of 3 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 10 fps.

Caliber : 9mm+P
Bullet : JHP Made by Remington
Ballistics : 124gr @ 1310fps / 473ft. lbs. from a G17.
124 @ 1295fps / 462 ft. lbs. from a G19
Recoil Energy of 5 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 13 fps.

Caliber : 9mm+P
Bullet :147gr Winchester® JHP
Ballistics : 147gr @ 1125fps / 410ft. lbs. from a G17.
Glock 19 velocity - 1080fps.
Glock 26 velocity - 1025fps.
Recoil Energy of 4 foot pounds, and Recoil Velocity of 12 fps.

Average 10MM recoil: 9 ft-lbs
Average .40 recoil: 7 ft-lbs
Average .45 ACP: 9.5 ft-lbs
Average 9MM: 4 ft-lbs

With full power ammunition your accuracy results indicate that it's load related, or gun related. The .45 you shoot well is the hardest kicking of all.

The 9MM should be easy to shoot well. It's considerably less recoil then the other rounds.

I like doing this stuff. It's fun to find out how close the service calibers really are, including the 'awesome' recoiling 10MM.

It looks like the guns you shoot the best are most likely the ones you have more trigger time on.

 

[JohnKSa]

Recoil is NOT caliber dependent. It's bullet and powder weight.

Well, to be perfectly accurate it's proportional to the product of the ejecta weight (bullet plus gases that exit the muzzle) and the muzzle velocity of the ejecta and is inversely proportional to the weight of the firearm.

It's fun to find out how close the service calibers really are...

In more ways than one...

 

[Prosser]

Something to consider:
What does your gun weigh full, and what does it weigh on the last round?

When the weight of the gun gets under 2 pounds, most Glocks, and you put in a 15=17 round magazine, there is going to be a considerable weight difference between the guns first round and it's last. This weight change is going to effect shot placement and recoil as the gun becomes lighter.

I would draw this point out further, but in my current nanny state, I can't get over 10 rounds in a handgun, so the point is more or less moot.

 

[CDW4ME]

Apples to apples ammo

Would help if we knew what ammo you are using in the gun.

Recoil is NOT caliber dependent. It's bullet and powder weight.

Also I'm wondering if the grip diameter is affecting your accuracy as well.

Your ammunition selection is what is effecting your time and accuracy, NOT caliber.

Ammo for the 10mm, 45, and 9mm was all my XTP handloads (constructed with the greatest of care ) which approximately match the advertised velocity for factory Hornady ammunition.
The 40 S&W was 8 rounds of the relatively mild Golden Saber 165 gr. and 8 rounds of Ranger T 165.

5 shot chrono averages for each ammunition:
10mm 155 gr. XTP @ 1,278 fps / 562# KE (PF 198)
45 acp 185 gr. XTP @ 970 fps / 387# KE (PF 179)*

40 S&W 165 Ranger T @ 1,116 fps/ 456# KE (PF 184)
40 S&W 165 GS @ 1,018 fps / 380# KE (PF 168)
9mm 115 gr. XTP @ 1,157 fps / 342# KE (PF 133)*

I listed the power factor (PF) calculation for each load as an objective way to compare felt recoil.
PF = bullet weight x bullet speed / 1,000
It's not surprising that the two pistols with lower* calculated PF numbers were faster in 1st - 2nd shot time.
The grip on the 26/27 is exactly the same.
The 27 averaged .26 in that drill, hardly any difference (like I said) but the misses were much further from the 6'' circle.
The 30 (45) was quicker & more accurate than the 29 (10mm) despite not having a place for my pinky. I have Pearce +0 baseplates on the 29 magazines and like them; the 45 has more of a gap between the frame & magazine base and it pinches my pinky regardless of magazine base (I even sanded the offending area of the magazine base) so I will only use the flush fitting 9 round magazines in it.

 

[Prosser]

Did you determine the bench accuracy of each gun with each load, prior to this event?

HMMM. Accuracy is the issue, even though the 26 is 25% faster on splits

45 acp 185 gr. XTP @ 970 fps / 387# KE (PF 179)*

WOW! You shoot that well. Why don't you just load a FBI light load in both the 10MM and .40, and carry any of those three, and leave the 26 at home?

The specs for the FBI light are 180 grains at about 980 fps, nearly identical to your favorite .45 load.

It looks to me that your .40 and 10MM loads are suffering from top of the reloading scale approach to reloading. There are PLENTY of 22-29k loads that give you 1030-1254 fps with .45 ACP like pressures. Somehow I would think a 155 grain XTP at 1100 fps would be a better choice then a 115 grain XTP at 1,100 fps, in 9mm.

My experience with the .40 was a glock 35 race gun. The custom loads felt like a .22lr, and it was VERY accurate. Controlled fire one hole, double taps touching at 7 yards. It did have about a 3 pound trigger pull on it.

I think he was using 155 grain wadcutters at 950 fps, using 231 or maybe a bit faster using HS-6.

I suspect if you keep the pressure on your 10MM and .40 loads in the 20-30k range you will get better accuracy, pick a fast powder that is accurate for your short barreled guns, and not give up any accuracy.

You can also equal the .45 ACP in PF factor, using FBI type loads in the 10MM and .40. Hornady offers a .40 180 grain XTP JHP, and do a factory load in .40 with it as well. 950 fps.

It would seem to make more sense to start with the same bullet weight you shoot well in the .45 ACP and make up equal loadings in the 10MM and the .40. The 10MM will do 980 with near minimum loads and minimum pressure, 22-25k. The .40 will too. Using Universal, or HS-6 the powder charge is within 20% of your 9MM loads.

There simply isn't any reason to carry a 9MM when you can custom load your .40 and 10MM to a more effective combination with low pressure.

It looks like a case of magnum hotrodding. WHY do people have to start at the top of the reloading charts? I suspect you are paying the premium in recoil in your 10mm and .40 loadings, due to loading near .44 magnum pressures.

The only constant I can see in your information that provides a clue for the accuracy issue is you shoot cartridges and loads well that are lower pressure, 20k in .45 ACP and 30k or lower in 9MM.
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if you use the same weight bullet,
less powder, and just a little more pressure, like 22-25K in .40 and 10MM,
you'll get recoil similar to the guns you shoot well.

And do something about that stupid 8 pound glock trigger pull...

The only Glock I ever enjoyed shooting:


If you must shoot up those 155 grain XTP's in the .40, you might consider loading
155 GR. HDY XTP Hodgdon Longshot .400" 1.125" 7.5 1129 24,900 PSI
155 GR. HDY XTP IMR SR 4756 .400" 1.125" 7.9 1139 25,900 PSI

Or in 10MM:
155 GR. HDY XTP Hodgdon HS-6 .400" 1.260" 8.8 1095 22,400 PSI
155 GR. HDY XTP Winchester AutoComp .400" 1.250" 8.0 1254 29,000 PSI
155 GR. HDY XTP Hodgdon Universal .400" 1.260" 6.5 1135 22,600 PSI

Still plenty of power, but without the high pressure.

Similar loads around for the 165's.

 

[Kleanbore]

Gettin' off track here--if you want to compare recoil, energy, and accuracy stats, start another thread.

 

[Kleanbore]

Great Contribution, John!

In my opinion, this has been one of the most thought provoking threads I have ever seen here. One can vary the assumptions or do the math oneself, but the numbers really do cause one who has been relying on a pocket firearm for primary carry to rethink one's risk management assumptions. Some of our preconceived notions may not withstand the challenge.

John is to be commended for putting in the effort and sharing it with us. I have this one bookmarked.

 

[Prosser]

I agree. Excellent thread.
Having gone through a multiple person attack, one person that I know had a gun, it is an excellent bit of work, and thought provoking.

Certainly changed the way I approach carry.

I just got done reading the entire thread again. What it does do is make you reconsider what are important factors in a carry gun-combination.

I just pulled myself out of Kali, into a free state. Now you have the consideration raised above: 9MM? Does the .40 give you enough added ballistics to justify a couple less rounds?
.45 ACP? With current single stack magazines it gives away 2-3 rounds to the 9mm and .40.

Makes me wish for a double stack standard .45 ACP, in polymer.

A point raised by CDW4ME:
At what point do you sacrifice accuracy with your ammunition choice, carry gun choice, for power, and how does that effect, if it does, capacity?
How do you determine what is acceptable accuracy in a situation you can't practice for, or is difficult to do so?

We also have some evidence here that a single shot taken might be enough to persuade 75% of the people involved to exit the gun fight early.

This thread raises many excellent questions.

P