When we removed the bolt from the rifle, the cocking mechanism was turned 90 degrees and the firing pin was protruding from the face of the bolt.
It seems to me that the cocking mechanism slipped off of the detent on the bolt and released the firing pin, but I have no idea how or why that would happen.
I assume the firing pin did not break, so I would agree with you on your analysis.
There are mechanisms which if the firing pin breaks, they will fire out of battery. The M1903 has a horrible two piece firing pin and I have had the pins, cocking pieces, and collars break. Then these things break, the firing pin tip is pushed out through the bolt face. Jack O'Connor almost lost a thumb chambering a round in a 03, the firing pin broke and hit the primer before the bolt closed. He wrote the bolt handle almost removed his thumb.
I really like the safety features Mauser designed into his M98 action. Notice the flanged area on the front of the firing pin. This is the firing pin interlock.
There are recesses cut into the bolt interior. If the bolt is in battery the recesses are in line with the shoulders cut on the firing pin and the firing pin is able to go fully forward and hit the primer. You can see the firing pin through the gas port, this is the correct orientation:
If the firing pin were to break before the lugs are in battery, this interlock prevents the firing pin from going forward. As you can see, no firing pin tip sticking through the bolt face.
Mauser actions are very safe, but very expensive to build. Current actions have very few of the safety features built into the original Mausers, and if a firing pin breaks, it goes straight through the bolt face.
Mausers also had a very positive cocking shroud retention. So what happened on your Tikka, probably would not have happened on a M98 Maser.