What price do you start aggressively buying ammo?

[earlthegoat2]

There is a philosophy in investing called “time in the market”. Basically trying to time the market to buy low and sell and high is a fallacy. Buy now so you have as much time in a steadily rising (or inflating) market and this will net the highest increase over time.

IOW, if you want ammo, don’t worry about the price now and just buy it now and keep buying as you can afford it over time. Ammo will always trend upwards.

 

[Buzznrose]

There is a philosophy in investing called “time in the market”. Basically trying to time the market to buy low and sell and high is a fallacy.

IOW, if you want ammo, don’t worry about the price now and just buy it now and keep buying as you can afford it over time. Ammo will always trend upwards.

I don’t necessarily agree with the theories above…

I tried to pay attention to the ups and downs of the ammo prices during the Obama years…they ebbed and flowed. I bought more when prices were lower. And in 2018-19, I really tried to make the most of the $159/1000 9MM and bought a lot to put up.

I think we’re in a lull for now. I think we could see $200/1000 9MM again this year. Inflation and commodity prices may prevent a more severe from but over manufacturing could create bargains if the glut gets too large.

 

[Beck]

I won't be buying aggressively anytime soon. I can wait. Some can't wait because they're starting from zero.


It wasn't all that long ago... pre-pandemic and pre-election 2020 hysteria that I could buy 1,000 rounds of 7.62x39 Golden Tiger for $189.00 on sale from SGAmmo. Regular special was 199.99 per 1,000. Currently the same stuff is going for $489.50 per 1,000.

^^^ Not gonna happen. Good thing I bought a lot of it back in the day, and still have a lot of it left. It shoots great in my Ruger Mini-30 and CZ 527 American. Too bad it's Russian made and probably won't see it come down even when other brands made elsewhere do.

I'll just have to look for something else to take its place to buy cheap and stack deep. Other countries are cranking out more ammo as Russia has fallen out of favor with basically the whole planet, so things will shake out with time. We'll see new brands of ammo and prices will inch down.

 

[Bfh_auto]

Assumption: This is a thread on buying new range/training ammo. Not really looking to banter reloading vs. buying commercial ammo if not relevant .


Plenty of threads on ammo being more available and prices coming down. Maybe you are already buying some….maybe not. But if you’re like many and like to have a good cache of ammo to weather the political and economic storms, I’m curious if it’s gotten low enough to start seriously buying. By ‘seriously buying’, I’m basically saying buying to keep for a rainy day, not to shoot any time soon.

I was on the SGAmmo.com website and they have 9MM for as low as $230/1000 for aluminum case, and $260/1000 for brass case. Both prices include free shipping.

https://www.sgammo.com/catalog/pistol-ammo-sale/9mm-luger-ammo?sort=round_low

I see that as tempting. I’m seriously considering a case or two of that aluminum case as it shoots fine and I use it for IDPA’s and other places I sometimes shoot where I can’t reclaim my brass. I’d also use it for bringing other shooters to the range as I don’t supply my reloads to new shooters. Just a “me” thing.

You may not be shooting 9MM but there are other cartridges that are more available and prices dropping. Are you seeing prices dropping to near “bulk buying” levels yet?

That's a little higher than old standard prices. Calculating inflation makes it an ok price. If I was low and wouldn't be jeopardizing important bills. I would spring for one or two.
We're in this weird limbo where prices may drop, go up, or availability may become non-existent. Place your bets.
I lived through the Clinton and Obama nightmares. This is much different.
22LR is getting close to stock up price was well.

 

[N555]

When people freaked out and were buying ammo at stupid prices I took advantage of them sold all my factory ammo.

 

[Ignition Override]

N555: Well done! You never waited for somebody else to direct you.

Any of those Panickers who had
spare ammo cash, &
were above the min. legal age those last few years, &
lived in the US (non-felon) had the chance to use a little personal initiative.

Many of them chose not to, and must have heard about past "freak outs" or saw it on tv.
PERSONAL-INITIATIVE1.png (620×412) (jessicalynette.com)

 

[rust collector]

Once upon a time, I would buy Federal long rifle solids when they sold for $0.50/box of 50 at the local Pamida store. I also shot indoor small bore position rifle, so would pick up more Remington Target when we got a deal. I remember boxes of UMC 115 fmj going for $10/100 on occasion, and Black Hills 223 reman going on sale for $10/50 for fmj. If I factor in inflation from an average of 1985, those $10 trigger prices are now about $28.

Back then I would buy when a. I needed it, b. it was on sale, and c. I had money in my pocket. These days, it is more a matter of a brand I trust and opportunity.

 

[Buzznrose]

When people freaked out and were buying ammo at stupid prices I took advantage of them sold all my factory ammo.

I confess I used some of my stash during the 2020/2021 ammo drought as trading fodder. Folks preferred it to cash.

 

[Kawamax]

@Buzznrose - good question! I have been thinking about the same thing. Especially about some S&B in 9mm and .45 that I really like. For me, given the stock that I have, it’s not low enough. But it’s getting closer…

 

[wayneinFL]

I never aggresively buy ammo or reloading components. I keep my stock up. When Federal and Winchester 9mm 100 round packs were selling for $16.97 at Walmart, I was buying a box every trip just to get out of the store. I could park by the Auto Center, check out through sporting goods, and get in and out quick.

I sold a lot of it off in the panic buying days.

I still have enough to keep shooting and I have primers that I stocked up on at a shooting match show booth. $75 a case seemed like a good deal at the time so I grabbed a few cases.

 

[SP5]

Aside from the obvious of you can never have too much ammo, what does everyone think is a ideal amount to have of each caliber you shoot? 1k rounds? 10k rounds? 25k rounds?

 

[Scout21]

Aside from the obvious of you can never have too much ammo, what does everyone think is a ideal amount to have of each caliber you shoot? 1k rounds? 10k rounds? 25k rounds?

Buddy, you just opened a can of worms...

 

[Buzznrose]

I guess the word I used in the title “aggressively” wasn’t a good word to use.

What I meant by it is buy to replenish your ammo supply where you think it’s a good value to you…

make sense?

 

[Vern Humphrey]

Buy powder by the keg (8 lbs) and primers by the slip (5,000). Save your brass and cast or pick up bullets as you can.

 

[Speedo66]

I used to buy every time I saw ammo on sale, figured it wouldn’t spoil or go stale like milk or bread.

Had enough to sell during a panic a few years back, “Oh no, Hillary is coming”, not.

Bought again when prices came down, so I can sit back and wait a while. Fortunate to have a major ammo dealer 20 minutes away.

Currently $12.95 for 9mm Blazer brass, is this the new former $8?

 

[rdnktrkr]

I would buy 660gr 50bmg again for less than $2.00 ea
My last 223/556 purchase was $.24ea and I would do that again IF it is 62gr.
I purchased 40s&w when it was less than $150 a 1000
12ga low brass less than $5 a box

Basically I refuse to purchase ammo at anything close to today's prices, I have enough to shoot for a few years and reload so I can shoot those also, I don't shoot some guns as often as I used to(50bmg, 6.5 Arisaka, 6.5x55, 45-70) but I shoot others more

 

[Thomasss]

I have always have kept an eye out for ammo deals of the calibers

I remember all the anti-gun stuff since J.F.K. And each time there was a mad scramble for guns, ammo and ...
I load for my family of hunters. I also keep an eye out for deals. God smiled on me in 2018 when an estate sale sold "a man cave" and I was there. No guns but several cases of diff. primer sizes and powder and bullets. And they were sold at 50% off of more, just to get rid of them. Has anyone noticed the shortages are happening more and more often. Like every 5 years or so. I do try to keep up.
The way the FED and IRS is tracking inheritance. This stuff may be worth more than a will.

 

[CapnMac]

What I meant by it is buy to replenish your ammo supply where you think it’s a good value to you…

Which is also part of

is a ideal amount to have

And, that is going to vary.

In fairness, the last case buy of ammo I made was like in 2002, maybe '03--and that was entirely based on the selling price. (From potentially hazy recollection, it was WWB 5.56 55gr FMJ or WWB FMJ 9x19, and the price was at or under $3/bx.) The rest of the time, ammo was either reloaded, or bought a box or two at a time.

Some of that was a habit of "paying rent" for hanging out at the LGS by buying a box or two of ammo. Hang out once a week at the LGS, and you wind up with 50 or 100 boxes (less whatever was sent down range). This is good to keep the light on in the LGS, but, also keeps a person very much in close touch with on-the-shelf prices, too. Which is handy if you then see bulk prices elsewhere.

Now, is it "better" to only suffer pricing at one box at a time, or take the hit 1000 rounds at a time? Dunno.
For me, I can find room for two more boxes of ammo easier than an entire case.

Ok, one downside to my method is that I have random bits of ammo. An, worse, partial boxes of rando ammo. Like revolver ammo for me, as it's been a decade since I had a revolver at all. Or battle-packs of 308. Or the six rounds of homeless 25-06. So, I have 600% more .257 ammo than I (presently) need. But, say the LGS gets a 25-06 in on the used rack for a decent price. Then, I'd be in need for several boxes of ammo.

I'm passing certain I have a couple of cases of 45acp, all different brands and loadings of FMJ. Is that "enough"? Dunno, never "feels" like it. Even if US$27/bx discourages more than a little. I have like elebenty cases of 5.56x45, did not stop me from getting some generic Armscor at the last gun show (it was only US$10 the box, and from a guy out of Brenham that turns out to have run in many of my Central Texas circles).

 

[JTHunter]

Several years ago, Gander Mountain opened their first (only and now gone) store in this area of SW IL-ANNOY. They had multiple boxes (222, 333, & 555) Winchester bulk .22LR for fairly good prices. About 2 years later, Academy opened their first (and only) store less than a mile from GM - which was already in trouble. Between the two of them, I was able to amass enough .22 ammo to last me the rest of my life (at current usage).

 

[Mosin77]

I think at $180/1000 for 9mm I’d start stockpiling. But not huge. Maybe 3k rounds if I could swing it. I currently have about 300 rounds of 9mm. Plenty of other calibers too but generally in the hundreds of rounds, not thousands, except for 22lr. And I have a diverse collection so I’m obliged to stock 20+ calibers.

My problem is that realistically I don’t ever want to shoot my stockpile so at the end of the day it’s almost better if I just lay in a stash sufficient for the range outing I have planned no more than a week in advance. Otherwise my shooting stash becomes my hoard for lean times, and so far the times have never been lean enough….. (Thank goodness.)

 

[SP5]

Thankfully, I consolidated calibers not too long ago so I only own firearms of a few calibers now and plan to keep it that way.

Ideally, I try to buy at least 500 rounds of 9mm per month. I probably should buy more 5.56 and 380. My 380 stock is lacking, but I only have 1 in 380 and rarely shoot it.

 

[DeepSouth]

I don’t have a set price, I buy when availability gets steady. I’ll just pick some up when I have the extra cash, as prices come down my buying increases.

Basically, the lower the price the more disposable income goes to ammo, when prices go up disposable income goes elsewhere.

the problem with a set price, is either it will change….. so it’s not truly set…. Or one day you will stop buying ammo.

 

[tws3b2]

Seems to me that people have been buying ammo Very Aggressively For the past two years or so. At "Aggressively" High Prices.

 

[Will Munny]

The economist in me would find it very interesting what people's actual reservation prices are on ammo.
Demand curves come from the amalgamation of people's individual reservation prices, and thus slope downward, at a lower price the quantity demanded is higher.
But when looking at individuals the reservation prices can be very uneven slopes due to quantization effects.
Take for example a computer. Most people have a high reservation price for the first computer, at least several hundred dollars. However, once they have one, the utility to them of a second one is much lower, even if they really like computers. So the reservation price is going to be lower, perhaps less than a hundred dollars for most people (they may buy for some marginal utility, like having a spare, a guest computer, or one for the kids to use without bothering them on theirs). Going from 1 unit to 2 is a drastic decline in price.
Ammo on the other hand will likely not be well quantized. First because it is single use, and second because the utility per round is still high after the first handful of rounds (anyone could use 20 more rounds after they have 20, but virtually no one would find utility for 20 computers after they had 20).
Now if ammo reservation prices are not well quantized then there will not be a price at which people start aggressively buying ammo, but rather a continuous monotonic and slope of demand versus price. It might also be reasonable that the slope is concave which would better explain behavior like buying pallets at low enough prices.

 

[WiTom]

I will keep reloading until no more primers, and too pigheaded to buy more. The only ones I am lacking are small pistol, because of 9mm, as I under estimated those, and the fact that everyone around me shoots it, and I just didn't think both primers and 9mm would completely disappear. Won't make that mistake again, and 9mm is at that buying price for me now. If I was younger I might be waiting, but at my age, wait for what?