What price do you start aggressively buying ammo?

[illinoisburt]

When prices do come down, I predict people will act exactly the same as before buying only what they perceive as immediate need. I've heard it a bunch of times about people wanting to stockpile 'cheap' but very few people will do so. Leaning on @Will Munny post, the 'plenty on hand' level I've seen for most shooters is basically 2 range trips. We were fresh off the previous years of high prices/empty shelves when prices came down 2017-2019 and we didn't see crates (or barrels) flying off the shelves, hence why prices were low with plenty of product and limited demand.

 

[Will Munny]

When prices do come down, I predict people will act exactly the same as before buying only what they perceive as immediate need. I've heard it a bunch of times about people wanting to stockpile 'cheap' but very few people will do so. Leaning on @Will Munny post, the 'plenty on hand' level I've seen for most shooters is basically 2 range trips. We were fresh off the previous years of high prices/empty shelves when prices came down 2017-2019 and we didn't see crates (or barrels) flying off the shelves, hence why prices were low with plenty of product and limited demand.

If there were ever a time when a crisis would actually impart a lesson into people I would think this would be it. The pandemic, and all that followed, is certainly unique in contemporary times when it comes to ammo shortages. That is not to say most will, but I certainly expect far more this time around than in the past.
One factor that might also cause a glut is a significant economic downturn. Even if people perceive the prices as low if they are budget constrained then it be possible to stockpile.
On the flip side, with high inflation and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine I doubt sticker prices for ammo will return to anything like the Trump years short of a major economic downturn and/or resolution of the Ukraine conflict.

 

[film495]

when I see a price that I think is good, probably a year or three from now is my guess

 

[Mini30SS]

Ammo cost is not an issue, lack of funds is the issue. Back when the gov was giving out free money, I bought a stash of 22s at the hefty prices of $6-$8 per 50. But I didn’t by to resell, I bought to have a better supply. And I had to strike while I had the extra money and the ammo was available. It’s still in the ammo box, next to some mini mags I bought at what was the high price of $10 per 100 8 years ago.

I bought a new model Colt Python with my stimulus money. Not a chance I would pay $1600 for a revolver with my own hard earned $$.

 

[Mini30SS]

If you have the cash, $260/1000 of 9mm brass is pretty cheap. When you take inflation, and cost of primers into consideration, it doesn't make much sense to wait. I would jump on it if I didn't already have a significant 9mm stash.

 

[Mini30SS]

Aggressively buying? When the prices are aggressively low. If I saw prices much lower than 2019, then I would be buying. If they only drop to resemble 2019 prices, I might start buying some. If they remain meaningfully above 2019 prices, what's the hurry? That's not to say that I'm predicting they'll ever go that low again. They may never. The dollar isn't worth as much as it was. But what would make them go up in the near term? Why not wait until they either go down, or 2024 starts to come into shape, about a year from now. The incumbent administration would mean prices continue to decline. Why would it be any different? A republican administration would mean the prices could drop into a major slump. I don't see an urgency to buy anything.

There are good prices in bulk quantities of some calibers now ( 9mm, .223/5.56 and 7.62x39 brass cased). Those are good deals now.

Other hunting calibers, handgun calibers starting with the number 4, magnum calibers, and shotgun shells still have to come down some more before I will buy them again.

I pick up a little 7.62x39 every chance I get when the prices are fair. Those supplies will be drying up soon, and domestic production is pretty near Zero. I expect prices in this caliber to at least double when the Russian supply is all bought up.

 

[Ignition Override]

Actually, my aggressive buying started a few months before the 2008 election.

—Astute friends of mine Knew that “O’s Healthcare” would be his far more practical & popular objective. Gun-grabbing (“..them ARs! ) rumors were mostly ‘created’ by the Retail Gun Industry. We laughed at people unable to consider the —politically plausible— Bigger picture.

Buying ammo continued fairly regularly between the next panics.

When “Ammo-Surfing”, you avoid the high profile “swells” while never missing chances to paddle around when waters calm down .

 

[westernrover]

There are good prices in bulk quantities of some calibers now ( 9mm, .223/5.56 and 7.62x39 brass cased). Those are good deals now.

I'm seeing x39 at about 34 cents per round for steel and about 45 cents for brass. That's about double what I would consider a good deal for bulk prices. I agree that the supply chain for x39 has different factors that may affect its availability later this year, but I don't see the domestic supply glut on the other cartridges maintaining the current prices.

 

[Mini30SS]

I'm seeing x39 at about 34 cents per round for steel and about 45 cents for brass. That's about double what I would consider a good deal for bulk prices.

I understand your point of view. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. At current prices, I don't know anyone who can reload for this caliber for a price less than these market prices. Should it be less money? Yes. Will it ever be again at pre-pandemic pricing? Not likely. At current pricing, it is still on par for pricing less than or equal to .223/5.56 pricing, and these two are the least expensive center-fire rifle rounds.

I remember when 7.62x39 ammo was 7 cents per round, when bought in case quantities, in Chinese spam cans. But that was over 30 years ago. Our currency has been seriously devalued since then, and supplies limited by arbitrary import restrictions, based on political considerations. I have one unopened spam can left.

 

[Ignition Override]

Ammoseek.

If people are unfamiliar with ammo search engines, they are probably paying more than necessary.

 

[theotherwaldo]

-When someone offers me about eighty pounds of reloading components and brass for 6.5 mm for $500.00... .

 

[Tinker-S]

I buy when available if the price is competitive when compared to if I had to reload it.
Sure, the price will be higher, but then I think about how much time I have to invest in brass prep, availability of components, hazmat shipping, and all else that is involved in reloading, then the small price difference is negligible, in my opinion.
Besides, what difference does it makes if I have 10K rounds in my "stash" if a mob of people decides to rush my "castle"?
It is proven, that even on a defensive position where automatic weapons are employed, and properly trained individuals are manning those positions, it is impossible to stop a group of determine individuals from reaching their objective.
I was waiting to pay for a couple of spam cans of AK food, and the line was not moving fast enough. I started to think about a good restaurant down the road where some of the food was pricey but good, and their prices were high to me. I said: "food for the stupid rifle, or food for my belly?".
The lunch time growling prevailed, and I left the spam cans on the counter!
I know this does not have anything to do with the question, but then again, I have "nothing to do".

 

[rust collector]

It's not fair to drop Maslow's hierarchy of needs into the situation

 

[Mini30SS]

Ammoseek.

If people are unfamiliar with ammo search engines, they are probably paying more than necessary.

That's where I found my reloadable boxer/brass 7.62x39 for 45 cents/round ( Target Sport ).
Let me know when you find it at 22.5 cents/rnd. ( The half current pricing that you believe is reasonable).

 

[Will Munny]

It is proven, that even on a defensive position where automatic weapons are employed, and properly trained individuals are manning those positions, it is impossible to stop a group of determine individuals from reaching their objective.

That is highly questionable logic. A well trained army with air support or an adequately trained one willing to expend casualties will do that.
But an unruly mob is not going to take large numbers of casualties to get someone's SPAM stockpile. They will go and pick a more lightly defended target.

 

[Ignition Override]

Mini30SS:
-can’t recollect what I suggested as a reasonable price. Have been busy reassembling the trigger group for a PTR-91.

Did you care for the water-based extra cleaning required with the older Chinese (or older Russian) ammo? I only did this cleaning Mosins, Y. Mauser and a few Enfields. It got kinda old. Were such ammo magically now available at those prices - count me out - not using it in a semi-auto gas-operated rifle.

All I know as that pre-pandemic prices have little connection to our present factors and fuel costs + other inflation.

I’ve saved up so much 7.62x39 (people on THR advised to not be specific on How Much: due to “black helicopters” from fantasy tv…) that the only ammo bought in 2022 was steel-cased .308: HK/PTRs love it, and .380 acp for the new CZ-83.

 

[Tinker-S]

That is highly questionable logic. A well trained army with air support or an adequately trained one willing to expend casualties will do that.
But an unruly mob is not going to take large numbers of casualties to get someone's SPAM stockpile. They will go and pick a more lightly defended target.

Darn it!
I knew I should have gotten those stupid spam cans!

 

[welldoya]

I stocked up a couple of years ago when ammo got cheap plus rebates were going on.
Most of my 5.56 was .23 - .25 per round. 9mm was around .17 or .18 and 22LR was around .04.
This was on sale in cases plus the rebate.
I’ll buy more when it gets close to those numbers. If it doesn’t, I’ve got plenty.

 

[roval]

i finally bought a small amount of ammo. 9 mm 124 gr blazer brass was 12.99/50 and with free shipping , 115 gr was more expensive same brand for some reason. with tax still 27.9 cents per round. i bought 500. i rationalized 10.5 cents fmj bullet ( rmr) and 10-9 cents per spp and i get brass ( starline was 18 cents if bought by 1000), i could temporarily live with the price. i only bought 500 rds as with the frequency of "sales" i do think the ammo inventory is building up from these sellers as money for hobbies get used up for more essential things.

 

[I6turbo]

I bought a new model Colt Python with my stimulus money. Not a chance I would pay $1600 for a revolver with my own hard earned $$.

- 5 Trillion "stimulus" dollars distributed to various points, some made it's way into citizen and taxpayer hands, the vast majority did not.
- If yours is an average household, and is a federal taxpaying household (60% of households pay federal income taxes), then your share of that 5 Trillion dollar principal is $67,000. (How much did your household receive in "stimulus" checks?) Then there's the interest that will eventually dwarf the principal.
- Don't fool yourself. Those checks were your hard-earned $$, handed back to you in a form that approximates a payday loan. In one way of looking at it, that'll probably be the most expensive gun you ever purchase. You and your offspring will be paying for it for generations.

The fact that most people don't flinch when politicians pull these stunts is exactly how they are taking the country to financial ruin with minimal objection from the people. They rob the country of billions and trillions of dollars, hand 20% of it back to "the people," while the remainder is used to buy votes for themselves and enrich people and companies with whom they're in bed with, people and companies who will eventually feed a bunch of that money back to the politicians and their cronies. Meanwhile, the huge, huge majority of us are being screwed. Like lobsters in a pot being brought to boil, most people don't even realize what's being done to them and their families.

 

[Mini30SS]

- 5 Trillion "stimulus" dollars distributed to various points, some made it's way into citizen and taxpayer hands, the vast majority did not.
- If yours is an average household, and is a federal taxpaying household (60% of households pay federal income taxes), then your share of that 5 Trillion dollar principal is $67,000. (How much did your household receive in "stimulus" checks?) Then there's the interest that will eventually dwarf the principal.
- Don't fool yourself. Those checks were your hard-earned $$, handed back to you in a form that approximates a payday loan. In one way of looking at it, that'll probably be the most expensive gun you ever purchase. You and your offspring will be paying for it for generations.

The fact that most people don't flinch when politicians pull these stunts is exactly how they are taking the country to financial ruin with minimal objection from the people. They rob the country of billions and trillions of dollars, hand 20% of it back to "the people," while the remainder is used to buy votes for themselves and enrich people and companies with whom they're in bed with, people and companies who will eventually feed a bunch of that money back to the politicians and their cronies. Meanwhile, the huge, huge majority of us are being screwed. Like lobsters in a pot being brought to boil, most people don't even realize what's being done to them and their families.

I didn't have a choice. It was auto-deposited. Should I have sent a check back to those dumbaSses so that they could give it to the gatecrashers down South?

C'mon man!

 

[I6turbo]

I didn't have a choice. It was auto-deposited. Should I have sent a check back to those dumbaSses so that they could give it to the gatecrashers down South?

C'mon man!

I didn't say don't take the so-called "stimulus" check. I said that the stimulus money IS your own hard-earned $$.

 

[Tinker-S]

- 5 Trillion "stimulus" dollars distributed to various points, some made it's way into citizen and taxpayer hands, the vast majority did not.
- If yours is an average household, and is a federal taxpaying household (60% of households pay federal income taxes), then your share of that 5 Trillion dollar principal is $67,000. (How much did your household receive in "stimulus" checks?) Then there's the interest that will eventually dwarf the principal.
- Don't fool yourself. Those checks were your hard-earned $$, handed back to you in a form that approximates a payday loan. In one way of looking at it, that'll probably be the most expensive gun you ever purchase. You and your offspring will be paying for it for generations.

The fact that most people don't flinch when politicians pull these stunts is exactly how they are taking the country to financial ruin with minimal objection from the people. They rob the country of billions and trillions of dollars, hand 20% of it back to "the people," while the remainder is used to buy votes for themselves and enrich people and companies with whom they're in bed with, people and companies who will eventually feed a bunch of that money back to the politicians and their cronies. Meanwhile, the huge, huge majority of us are being screwed. Like lobsters in a pot being brought to boil, most people don't even realize what's being done to them and their families.

Would I be served with extra butter at least?

 

[Walkalong]

Since I didn't feel like editing out the off topic politics, we're done here. How did we go from what price should I buy ammo at, to government spending?