Which Cartridge Would Survive?

[twarr1]

I’d love to see this conversation happening around 1900.
“The 25-20 obsolete? No way!”

*Yes, I know someone, somewhere reloads 25-20 or has a box from 1921

 

[WrongHanded]

Being that I have been a reloader since grade-school it's difficult to imaging being a firearms user and not a reloader. To me that is simply part of being a firearms owner. None-the-less setting reloading to the side for the moment. My favorite local gun store has 455 Webley on the shelf not cheap but it's there. It's also fairly easy to order online from multiple resellers. With the internet there are very few smokeless centerfire cartridges I can't order ammunition for. They quit making firearms in 38 S&W firearms in the late 60's early 70's and yet Remington, Winchester, Magtech, PPU, Buffalo Bore and Buffalo Arms (black powder even) still offer ammo for those handguns. Again there are very few cartridges that I can't get ammo for from the internet. The niche markets are rarely left un-serviced in a healthy capitalistic system. The technology to make a popular cartridge is the same as an unpopular cartridge you just have to find someone that thinks they can make a buck servicing that niche market.

Latin is consider a "dead" language. People still speak it, people still use it, people still learn it. But it does not change, it does not evolve, it simply is what it is. There are no new Latin words of phrases.

In that respect, the .455 Webley is a dead cartridge. This site brings together many people with a passion for firearms. But most gun owners are far more simplistic in their desires. Do the minority of people like us drive the market, or do they?

 

[JTHunter]

Latin is consider a "dead" language. People still speak it, people still use it, people still learn it. But it does not change, it does not evolve, it simply is what it is. There are no new Latin words of phrases.

That is not quite true. As with genus and species names, such as "Homo sapiens" for modern humans, whenever a new species or variety is discovered or grown, the discoverer's or breeder's name is "latinized" and added to the overall language.

 

[ThomasT]

I have a new Latin word for 38 Special. Utopius Goodus Maximus XXXVIII.

OK who else can come up with a Latin name for their favorite cartridge?

 

[mcb]

Latin is consider a "dead" language. People still speak it, people still use it, people still learn it. But it does not change, it does not evolve, it simply is what it is. There are no new Latin words of phrases.

In that respect, the .455 Webley is a dead cartridge. This site brings together many people with a passion for firearms. But most gun owners are far more simplistic in their desires. Do the minority of people like us drive the market, or do they?

I am loosing track of were we are going with this discussion. Simply put I don't think we are going to see a major reduction in the number of cartridges we see on the market, short of society collapsing type upset. There are very few cartridges that have completely fallen off the market far less then new ones introduced. With the highly mobile market we have, enabled by the internet and cheap shipping even a small widely distributed niche interest in a obscure cartridge will easily keep it alive.

"No cause is lost if there is but one fool left to fight for it."

 

[WrongHanded]

I am loosing track of were we are going with this discussion. Simply put I don't think we are going to see a major reduction in the number of cartridges we see on the market, short of society collapsing type upset.

Okay, so here we are. If we did see a major reduction.....what cartridges do you think would survive? That was the original intent of the thread.

Honestly I don't know where I go wrong sometimes. If I don't explain myself well enough in the OP, some people get confused about the intent of the thread. If I try and cover the details comprehensively, people either try to work a point around what I've explained, or seem to get lost in the minutia.

If the market only allowed for 2 or 3 handgun cartridges, based on current trends, what do you think they would be?

 

[WrongHanded]

That is not quite true. As with genus and species names, such as "Homo sapiens" for modern humans, whenever a new species or variety is discovered or grown, the discoverer's or breeder's name is "latinized" and added to the overall language.

That's really interesting. I had no idea that was the case.

 

[Howland937]

I have a new Latin word for 38 Special. Utopius Goodus Maximus XXXVIII.

OK who else can come up with a Latin name for their favorite cartridge?

Is there a Latin word for "millimeters"?

 

[jrmiddleton425]

Only a lack of demand will drive a cartridge into extinction. Based on what is "in-stock" at Bud's Gun Shop, I don't see .22LR, 9mm, .38 Spl, .40 S&W, .45 ACP going anywhere.

On the other side of the coin, .44 Special has made a COMEBACK within the last five years.

 

[ThomasT]

Is there a Latin word for "millimeters"?

Tinymus Markimus?

 

[UncleEd]

WrongHanded,

I believe I understood your original point and
gave my answer in post #21.

For those who talked about reloading,
I think my answer also allows for
minimal use of powders and just the
production of small pistol primers.

(When it comes to reloading the .22LR,
the Russian shooting teams in WWII
came up with an answer. )

 

[UncleEd]

As for Latin being "dead," one
call always think of the modern
age's "bombus atomicus."

 

[WrongHanded]

WrongHanded,

I believe I understood your original point and
gave my answer in post #21.

Yes you did. Let's discuss it.

9mm is the WORLD'S most popular cartridge.
It has been for decades and decades with
military and police and civilians. The number
of guns made for it is nearly beyond count.

I don't see anything changing regarding it.

For me, the .38 Smith & Wesson Special, so
many guns have been or are made for it,
sometimes in the guise of the .357 Magnum
revolver models. But at heart they are
.38 Special shooters.

I don't see anything changing regarding it.

These two mid-bore calibers have been the
easiest for a majority of shooters to master
throughout their lives.

And then the .22 LR. Again the number of
guns made for it and the ease in using it
make it a survivor.

I don't see anything changing regarding it.

We're on the same page with the 9mm. As far as the .38spl goes, I think if production got down to only a few cartridges, it would only make the cut as a sidekick to .357 Magnum.

My reasoning behind this is simply that polymer framed strikers have become so overwhelmingly popular (and the 9mm of course) that I feel the .38spl alone would be edged out. In a practical sense with regards to self defense and home defense, it's hard for a 5 shot revolver with a long heavy double action trigger to compete with 10+ shot micro semi-auto that is as small or smaller, possibly lighter, and frequently with a trigger most would prefer. J frame vs P365? Most would take the P365 I think. As far as larger guns goes, the ammo capacity disparity becomes larger, and we're also going to have to consider, weapons lights, low profile electronic optics etc. The revolver just doesn't have anything over the modern semi-auto for most people. Reliability seems less and less of a strength to revolvers, as the new strikers seem to be far more reliable than their predecessors.

Where revolvers do come into a strength is with more powerful cartridges that outdoorsman prefer. Such as the .357 Magnum. And I certainly can see that if the .357 held on, the .38spl could well ride its coattails into the future. There's actually no reason to assume otherwise from my perspective. But the .38 alone? I don't see it. If you disagree I'd be happy to hear your thoughts as to why.

 

[mcb]

Okay, so here we are. If we did see a major reduction.....what cartridges do you think would survive? That was the original intent of the thread.

Honestly I don't know where I go wrong sometimes. If I don't explain myself well enough in the OP, some people get confused about the intent of the thread. If I try and cover the details comprehensively, people either try to work a point around what I've explained, or seem to get lost in the minutia.

If the market only allowed for 2 or 3 handgun cartridges, based on current trends, what do you think they would be?

I guess I just can't suspend disbelief well enough for this scenario. I am life long firearms owner, reloader, mechanical engineer by trade and lover of supposedly dead cartridges. It just seem too implausible that a scenario exists that we would as a society be forced to only manufacture 2 or 3 cartridges and nothing more. If the equipment exists to make X cartridge then the equipment exists to make nearly all the cartridges that currently exists. Its not high-technology to make ammo. I will leave you all to your speculations.

 

[WrongHanded]

I guess I just can't suspend disbelief well enough for this scenario. I am life long firearms owner, reloader, mechanical engineer by trade and lover of supposedly dead cartridges. It just seem too implausible that a scenario exists that we would as a society be forced to only manufacture 2 or 3 cartridges and nothing more. If the equipment exists to make X cartridge then the equipment exists to make nearly all the cartridges that currently exists. Its not high-technology to make ammo. I will leave you all to your speculations.

I understand.

 

[UncleEd]

WrongHanded,

I don't disagree with your conclusion on the
.357 over the .38 but I suspect manufacturers
would be willing to load down .357s for
those who don't want such a stout round but
still lean toward revolvers.

(In the olden days of Skeeter Skelton, when
.357 brass wasn't plentiful or even not
available, reloaders took .38 cases, added
more powder but didn't seat the bullets
quite as deep. Hence they created quasi
.357s for their Models 27s and 19s.)

You're right the .38 would ride the coattails
of the .357. After all we're only talking
about a tenth to an eighth differences in
lengths.

 

[bannockburn]

I would probably go with the .38 Special being the second choice of cartridges to survive. It's been around for over 120 years and S&W alone has produced over 6 million Model 10s, which still remains in production even after all this time! Now think of all the other .38 Special revolvers S&W has made and throw in other manufacturers like Colt, Ruger, Charter Arms, and Taurus and you have a pretty big number of .38 Specials out there, all in need of ammo.

 

[WrongHanded]

I would probably go with the .38 Special being the second choice of cartridges to survive. It's been around for over 120 years and S&W alone has produced over 6 million Model 10s, which still remains in production even after all this time! Now think of all the other .38 Special revolvers S&W has made and throw in other manufacturers like Colt, Ruger, Charter Arms, and Taurus and you have a pretty big number of .38 Specials out there, all in need of ammo.

There's a good question: Are those .38s in need of ammo?

Are most .38s owned by people who also own guns chambered in other cartridges? Maybe. If so, and if ammo become scarce and therefore expensive and also limited in quantities by stores (which we've seen), do people feed that .38spl over something else like their 9mm for example?

If you have five guns, chambered in 5 different cartridges, and can only buy two boxes of ammo, which cartridges do you pick? What would most people choose?

I don't know the answers to those questions. But it makes me wonder. I think I'd either focus on a single cartridge to practice with, or split between two very different cartridges for different applications. But that's just me.

 

[Mosin77]

The plausibility of the whole thread is highly implausible. We are still making brass cases for cartridges that have been obsolete for many many decades. I just tooled up for 455 Webley for example. If the shortage of raw materials were to reach a point were it would be plausible to reduced to only a few cartridges society as a whole would have collapsed into any one of variety of post apocalyptic scenarios.

As much as we love to talk about cartridges that have died, in practice there are very very few cartridges that are actually dead. I would challenge the readers here to give me an example of a single centerfire (boxer or berdan primed) cartridge that is currently impossible to reload for.

If you still make 10mm Auto, then we still have 40 S&W
If you still make 357 Mag we still have 38 Special, 38 Long and 38 Short Colt
etc.

Variety is the spice of life!

Surprisingly I have a candidate - .32 Colt, in both long and short varieties. Not Colt New Police, which is .32 S&w Long by a different name, but the original .32 Colt rounds. Long hasn’t been offered in years as loaded ammo, and short used to be offered something like once a year as a small run -but it was announced in around 2015 that that year’s run would be the last. Brass is unavailable from any reasonably priced new made commercial source, and dies are more or less unavailable as well. (I exclude things like custom companies who will turn any cartridge for you on a lathe for $5 apiece or the fact that there’s one guy on Etsy who offers them as lathe-modified .32 S&w long.)

But, the fact that I can only think of two cases basically proves your point. The vast majority of centerfire cases can be reloaded, somehow, without too much fuss if you’re willing to make an initial investment in brass and dies.

 

[WrongHanded]

But, the fact that I can only think of two cases basically proves your point. The vast majority of centerfire cases can be reloaded, somehow, without too much fuss if you’re willing to make an initial investment in brass and dies.

And assuming you can get primers and powder. During a shortage, it seems those are purchased by ammo companies and not commonly available for handloaders.

 

[.455_Hunter]

Surprisingly I have a candidate - .32 Colt, in both long and short varieties. Not Colt New Police, which is .32 S&w Long by a different name, but the original .32 Colt rounds. Long hasn’t been offered in years as loaded ammo, and short used to be offered something like once a year as a small run -but it was announced in around 2015 that that year’s run would be the last. Brass is unavailable from any reasonably priced new made commercial source, and dies are more or less unavailable as well. (I exclude things like custom companies who will turn any cartridge for you on a lathe for $5 apiece or the fact that there’s one guy on Etsy who offers them as lathe-modified .32 S&w long.)

But, the fact that I can only think of two cases basically proves your point. The vast majority of centerfire cases can be reloaded, somehow, without too much fuss if you’re willing to make an initial investment in brass and dies.

Maybe .22 Velo Dog?

 

[Mosin77]

In regard to the original premise of this thread I do think that most cartridges would and will survive, they just may well become more niche than they already are. The possible exception might be cartridges that are popular mostly with high volume shooters and have heretofore been popular and accessible. In other words, .45acp isn’t going anywhere because it’s never been positively cheap, but some .45 shooters might switch to 9mm…. Maybe. 9mm is more available now but I still find $20-25/50 a tough price point to swallow.

But I haven’t seen many ads for .40 and if it’s significantly harder to get I could see even more of its adherents jumping onto the 9x19 bandwagon.

Niche cartridges like .44 Spl are already kind of limited if you don’t handload so it’s doubtful a single fan will decide they’re done with the cartridge and ready to embrace 10mm and buy a Glock so chambered. Just a different market.

 

[Mosin77]

Maybe .22 Velo Dog?

I have a couple of old Austrian military rifles… one chambered in 8x50r. Dies are available but they cost a kings ransom. Brass isn’t available but not too hard to make yourself from a couple of other calibers, so I didn’t count that one. It’s on the verge though.

I also have one in 11.15x36r Werndl Carbine. This one I’d venture to add to the .32 Colt and .22 velo-dog category. There’s basically no consistent info available to load the cartridge let alone any suppliers of brass or dies. Anything is theoretically possible, of course, but I think 11.15x36r is pretty thoroughly dead as cartridges go.

 

[bassjam]

I don't see 9mm, .45acp, .38 special, .357mag, .22lr or .380 acp going anywhere, there's FAR too many guns out there in daily use that require them and high customer demand will keep them alive. .44 mag would stick around too. .40S&W and probably 10mm would as well. In production, changeover is what really kills your ability to ship product out the door so even cutting out a handful of less popular cartridges like .25 acp, .32 acp, .357 sig, .38 S&W, .38 super, .50AE, .460, .500 S&W etc would easily make up for the efficiencies of keeping the more popular rounds around.

 

[WrongHanded]

I don't see 9mm, .45acp, .38 special, .357mag, .22lr or .380 acp going anywhere, there's FAR too many guns out there in daily use that require them and high customer demand will keep them alive. .44 mag would stick around too. .40S&W and probably 10mm would as well. In production, changeover is what really kills your ability to ship product out the door so even cutting out a handful of less popular cartridges like .25 acp, .32 acp, .357 sig, .38 S&W, .38 super, .50AE, .460, .500 S&W etc would easily make up for the efficiencies of keeping the more popular rounds around.

If we're talking likely scenarios for a prolonged shortage, I agree. A decade or two of it, things could be very different. That's a lot of new gun owners with different desires and requirements.