Hokkmike
Member
If the robbers have any sense it is.
5 shot revolver enough against 5 robbers
- Thread starter Stevel
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.38 Special
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- Joined
- Sep 15, 2006
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- 7,355
Yay! A capacity thread! It's been weeks!
I've finally come to the realization that semi-autos are worse than useless. Those giant magazines make the owner think he's got unlimited ammunition, so he just bangs away, putting holes in everything and everyone except his opponent.
If you want to address that 30% hit rate, take away his wondernine and give him a revolver.
Hopefully all the anti-gun politicians here will see my post and act on it right away!
I've finally come to the realization that semi-autos are worse than useless. Those giant magazines make the owner think he's got unlimited ammunition, so he just bangs away, putting holes in everything and everyone except his opponent.
If you want to address that 30% hit rate, take away his wondernine and give him a revolver.
Hopefully all the anti-gun politicians here will see my post and act on it right away!
Well, past a point, capacity is of questionable value. Assuming the attacker(s) really pose a threat, the odds of a defender getting to stand there and expend a bunch of rounds without getting shot in the process are questionable. There's obviously a point of diminishing returns. But too little isn't a great idea either. When the attacker is moving trying to avoid being shot and the defender is moving trying to avoid being shot, misses are inevitable and when adrenaline starts pumping, it's not uncommon for it to take more than one solid hit to incapacitate an attacker. Planning for 'One shot, one attacker stopped.' in a real world encounter is self-delusion.
I know it's common to hear this kind of argument, but it just doesn't align with what I see at the range. Sure, a person who is really good with a revolver can shoot better than someone who isn't that good with a semi-auto. But when the skill levels are comparable, people tend to shoot better with autopistols than revolvers, especially when time is critical. Pound for pound a semi-auto tends to recoil less and a 5-7lb trigger is easier to manage than one that is 10-12.
In the firefights in Iraq I never heard someone say”dang, all this ammo is too heavy. We should bring less”. Makes as much sense as drilling holes in the body armor to make it lighter.
Five rounds of buckshot and I would have felt a little better.
Five rounds of buckshot and I would have felt a little better.
lysanderxiii
Member
Most of your semi-auto pistols designed for concealed carry (i.e., compact) only hold 7 rounds.
How much do those extra two rounds improve the "bad guy encounter" success rate? (Using that 30% hit probability.)
How much do those extra two rounds improve the "bad guy encounter" success rate? (Using that 30% hit probability.)
Good point as in quite a few court discussions and failures to overturn mag bans, the judge has explicitly cited that higher capacity guns and mags are not needed.
Then your toast anyway !! ?
Dave DeLaurant
Member
I know what you're thinking. Did he fire five shots or only four? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself.
buck460XVR
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- Joined
- Feb 6, 2007
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- 10,079
^^^Kinda how I look at it. 5 armed BGs against against a 73 year old(or any age for that matter) with any one handgun are very bad odds.
lysanderxiii
Member
Never said all of them, but good percentage of them are.
Old Dog
Member
And this cannot be overstated. Probably most here don't have any in-person pro-RKBA activist experience, but over the past few years, having attended state senate hearings on proposed legislation, it is invariably brought up, that even within the "firearms community," we don't believe we need more ammunition capacity for self-defense -- our side's arguments are typically based on the 2A, its purpose and the philosophy of the RKBA.
We play right into the hands of the other faction, as in any state house or courtroom these days, political arguments hold no sway, while if you have an evidence-based argument, you're better off.
Thus, threads such as this just further indicate how many of us need to be seeing a bigger picture. I'm no longer gonna get down in the weeds in these discussions, it's painful, and we lose more than we gain.
We quibble about needs, when it's really about rights.
And the other side has taken notice, believe me.
Seven rounds improve the chances of success (as defined by making 4 or more hits with a 30% hit probability) to between 10% and 15%. About 4x better odds than with 5 rounds. Success would happen about 1 in 8 times as opposed to 3 in 100 times. Going to 8 rounds improves the chances of success to 1 in 5 times.
Here's another way to look at it.
Let's say you want at least even odds of success (as defined by making 4 or more hits) with only 5 shots. That takes a 70% hit rate to achieve. A 70% hit rate with 5 shots gives between 50% and 55% chance of success.
What about doing the same with 7 rounds? That would take a 50% hit rate to achieve. A 50% hit rate with 7 shots gives a 50% chance of success (making 4 or more hits before running out of ammo). The extra two shots provide about the same odds while relaxing the accuracy constraints from having to hit 7 out of 10 shots to only having to hit with half the shots.
We can keep going up (with 10+1, the chances of success with a 30% hit rate are between 40% and 45% and are 70% with a 40% hit rate) but at some point the bullets coming back your direction are going to become a major factor. 2 determined attackers shooting back could easily prevent a defender from getting the chance to expend all their available ammo and then the calculations don't provide much insight.
Here are some plots:
The Firing Line Forums - View Single Post - Capacity, Hit Rate, Multiple Assailants and some thoughts...
The Leading Online Forum for firearms Enthusiasts
thefiringline.com
There are two real takeaways in my opinion:
1. The fact that people do tend to prevail in self-defense encounters in spite of the poor odds is strong evidence that it's rarely necessary to deal with determined attackers. Defenders are winning more often because the attackers give up/run, less often because they are actually being incapacitated. That's very useful knowledge for a couple of reasons.
2. It helps provide a better understanding of one's capability when armed with a CCW. There's a tendency, when putting on a CCW, to have the attitude that we're ready for whatever comes our way during the day. In reality, there are some pretty severe limitations on our capabilities and as Dirty Harry says, "A man's GOT to know his limitations."
I think it also shows that there needs to be a balance. Too few shots, and it's very hard to make the hits no matter how well you can shoot. Too poor a hit rate and it's very hard to make the hits even with a high-capacity firearm.
I don't have the case handy but in some mag ban case, the expert witness was Dr. Gary Kleck - a noted expert on civilian firearms usage. He was making the point that mag bans are not useful and the judge explicitly dismissed (intellectually, not legally) his testimony due to the 5 is enough, 3,3,3 mantras.
Higher cap makes are only for nuts, terrorists and other horror show folks on a rampage. The civilian doesn't need them. The Internet says so.
BTW, this is the same type of argument we get into when some of say you should train up. NO - you don't because the bad guy runs away and the folks in the American Rifleman column usually have little training. As Kleanbore says - you have to consider what happens if you do get into the fight, rather than depending on the person running away.
Higher cap makes are only for nuts, terrorists and other horror show folks on a rampage. The civilian doesn't need them. The Internet says so.
BTW, this is the same type of argument we get into when some of say you should train up. NO - you don't because the bad guy runs away and the folks in the American Rifleman column usually have little training. As Kleanbore says - you have to consider what happens if you do get into the fight, rather than depending on the person running away.
I’m not at all one to get in the debate, because I like both. But, the guys I know that train and exercise shot discipline carry that habit to whatever weapon they have. I don’t want to be what they are shooting at, because all of their shots hit what they’re shooting at, whether it’s 12-21 rounds out of their 9, 7-8 from their 1911, or 5 from their snubby. I try to use just that attitude; if my worst nightmare comes true and my carry gun has to go to work, someone is gonna be dead or really hurtin’. A few more impacts might be what it takes to stop the cranked out meth-head etc. So my take, shoot what you’re comfortable with, get some good instruction, and train, train train!
230RN
2A was "political" when it was first adopted.
Balancing all the above, locally (Golden, Wheat Ridge, Applewood) I just carry a J-frame and hope. Heading to Denver on the east side of Federal Boulevard, I have been known to carry a 1911 + mag,
I do think (but I've been challenged on this) the laser sights I have on all my carry guns would be a huge discouragement to evildoers besides an enhancement to my shooting abilities.
One tosses the coin and hopes it lands heads-up.
Terry, 230RN
I do think (but I've been challenged on this) the laser sights I have on all my carry guns would be a huge discouragement to evildoers besides an enhancement to my shooting abilities.
One tosses the coin and hopes it lands heads-up.
Terry, 230RN
lysanderxiii
Member
15% is way over-optimistic. According to your link, the improvement is less than 10%. And, while going from 3% to 12% is a 4x improvement, I would not consider 12% chance of success stellar odds . . .
The factor this graph does not take into account is what is the attackers hit probability?
Correct. That's not what I said though.
Nope. That's the real takeaway--if you are faced with multiple determined attackers, you're in real trouble.
That's just one of many factors that it doesn't take into account. It's not anything at all like a gunfight simulator, it's just a probability calculation that provides insight into how hard it is to make multiple hits with real-world gunfight hit rates.
If you pocket carry, this doesn't tell the story at all.
Pudge
Member
So 5 armed determined attackers, 2-3 hits to neutralize each attacker. Assuming 2 hits for 3 and 3 hits for 2, that means 12 hits, at the LE rate that works out to 40 shots.
At the amazing 70 percent rate you're still at 18.
Assuming they are shooting back at the same rate, how many rounds are you facing? (18, 15, 12, 5, and 1) 51? So, you need to neutralize 5 with 18, and face down 51?
If they're hitting at the LE rate, you're taking 15 hits before you get your 18 shots off.
If you don't assume 1 shot stops, or that they run, I think you assume that whatever you're carrying, it won't be enough.
lysanderxiii
Member
But, your graph shows LESS than 10%, more like 8%, at most.
That's not in between 10% to 15%
Correct. 5 determined and armed attackers is, as one would expect, even without doing any calculations at all, a very bad situation. Essentially unwinnable unless the defender is extremely skilled and lucky and/or the attackers are extremely inept and unlucky.
Correct--the improvement is less than 10%. But I didn't say that 7 rounds at 30% increased the chances of success "BY between 10% and 15%", I said it increased the chances "TO between 10% and 15%".
I've got a Sig 365 in my pocket; but, first lets see what the "story" is according to you from a post in a prior thread:
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/pocket-carry.920291/#post-12654816
"These 10+ capacity micro 9mms really aren't pocket guns, IMO. Too much weight. Due to the shape, no good way to draw. This even extends to lcps and kel tecs, for me the blocky shapes print more and get hung up while drawing, slowing you down.
After tons of practice, draw to fire times, Shot placement speed and consideration I'm back to a j frame.
Fastest draw on target for me. I think that rates higher than capacity and reload speed for me and my needs.
I will always carry at least another 5 rounds in a speed strip, but I can tell you at least 3 aggressors would know they've been in a fight."
I don't know about you but I am not required to tuck my shirt and my always untucked shirt does a fair job of breaking outline of my pocket.
My untucked shirt also conceals the Glock I've got AIWB.
I like options; quickest draw when my hand is not in my pocket or seated (AIWB) or I can put my hand in my pocket without revealing I'm carrying if I feel the need.
If I HAD TO tuck my shirt then a Kahr PM9 with a small pocket hand sanitizer in front of to break outline works fine.
(And the hand sanitizer is useful after shaking hands
, touching gas pumps, door handles, shopping carts)Note that my reply was not to try to change your opinion, only present my perspective of a 365 as a pocket gun.
