A good reason Kerry is ahead in the polls

[Desertdog]

Polls don't lie, but liers take polls! Make them come out the way you want them to.

TWISTED: LA Times Poll Had Sample With 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans
Tue Jun 15 2004 10:13:47 ET
http://drudgereport.com/flash5.htm

Sen. John Kerry "has taken big lead," according "to an L.A. Times poll."

But the Times poll that showed Kerry "beating Bush by 7 points" has created a controversy over whether the poll's sample accurately reflects the population as whole, ROLL CALL reports on Tuesday.

"Not counting independents, the Times' results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans -- a huge and unheard-of margin," ROLL CALL claims.

Developing...

 

[Bubbles]

The only poll that matters will occur on November 2nd.

Also, I list myself as "undecided" in the Presidential race at this time. My decision will be made on September 14th.

 

[HankB]

So even though the "poll" had 13% more Democrats than it did Republicans, Kerry only eked out a 7% margin? Hmmm . . .

 

[tiberius]

This was a national poll right? I know there are more registered Dems the Repubs, but does anyone know the ratio of actual dems who genrerally vote vs. Repubs? I doubt its 50/50.

 

[Spot77]

The title of this thread is misleading......there IS NO GOOD REASON WHATSOEVER FOR KERRY TO EVER BE AHEAD IN ANY POLL.....


...unless you live in a communist or terrorist state.....

 

[dischord]

tiberius asks the correct questions. An even split might skew the results.

 

[pittspilot]

There are so many things that can skew or bias a poll.

I would agree that Democrats and Republicans do not break down into a 50-50 split. There tend to be more Democrats, by about a 5% split, although that it closing in recent years.

However, the LA Times is notorious for having weird results. That 13% should not be possible for a nationally representative sample, and that Kerry is only 7% ahead with that skew does not mean big lead.

BTW, there may also be another reason that the poll is skewed. For instance, it is known that if you populate your poll callers with females, people, especially men, that would identify as Repubs will instead identify as Dems. Also, there is a notable change in position. The same is true with race of your pollers, age of your pollers, education of your pollers, etc.

Polling has problems.

 

[halvey]

My uncle would tell me the reason Dems were always ahead in polls is because polls are conducted from 9-5. Therefore, all the people working and paying the taxes never get polled.

I don't think was ever entirely true, especially now since many people work different hours.

 

[woerm]

undecided

Bubbles,

Amen,

I'll make a decision on Sept 14 as well,

r

 

[fix]

Considering the fact that I have never been "polled" and do not personally know anyone who has...in fact have never even met anyone who has, I don't give them any credibility at all. For all I know, the numbers could be entirely made up. Anyone on THR been the subject of a political poll?

 

[Langenator]

Given that it's the LA Times, they're probably polling in LA-LA Land or the PRK. In that case, in might accurately reflect the local splits.

 

[Waitone]

I am reading "Off with Their Heads" by Dick Morris. One chapter is worth the price of a leather-bound, gold leaf edged copy. The chapter is about polling and how it is used, developed, and manipulated. The New York Times is the specific target of Morris' wrath. He exposes how the NYT manipulates samples, engages in push polls, pushes agenda of the week, then checks their effectiveness in propaganda by running a follow up poll.

Reading that chapter made me mad enough to to light the torch, heat up the tar pot and grab a feather pillow.

Do yourself a favor and get a copy of the Morris' book. A truly outstanding expose of our so-called 4th estate.

 

[Tom C.]

Concern for the accuracy of this poll is well justified. The poll was biased based on a significantly larger Demorat sample then Republican. These guys (the LA Times), are the same ones who said Davis would retain the governorship in a walk.
Of more interest is why the poll numbers for Kerry are so low, in view of the constant barrage of anti-Bush propaganda coming from the major “news†organizations. They are participating in a full court press to replace Bush with the hard core Marxist Kerry.
Any questions?

 

[Desertdog]

Anyone on THR been the subject of a political poll?

I was 3 times in less than 2 weeks by the LA Times, all with the same questions.

Think they may have liked my answers.

The only poll that really counts is the one done in November, at the polls.

 

[sumpnz]

I've recieved a number of calls for political polls, though I've only answered one or two that I recall. I got a call for a poll of some sort just a few weeks ago. Dunno what it was for though they were looking for 18-24 yearolds. Told them nobody in that range was in the house although my wife is 23 (I'm turning 27 a week from tomorrow).

 

[moa]

I think I was called once by the New York Times years ago about a poll they where taking. I hung up.

Last data I have seen on it, only 33% of registered voters are Democrats.

The only pollster I have seen that seems creditable is Zogby. His polls always seem to end up being the most accurate after election results are tallied.

 

[Standing Wolf]

The only poll that really counts is the one done in November, at the polls.

If and only if representatives of the Democratic (sic) party aren't engaged in massive, systematic vote fraud.

 

[UnknownSailor]

When aren't Democrats engaging in vote fraud? Especially in Illinois?

 

[Malone LaVeigh]

If and only if representatives of the Democratic (sic) party aren't engaged in massive, systematic vote fraud.

That's pretty hilarious after the Republican shenenigans in the 2000 election. Talk about a November poll that didn't count...

 

[GoRon]

Republican shenenigans

Thats a joke, the only shenanigans were by Democrats.

Lets keep counting until we get the result we want!

The only reason a Democrats win is because they consistantly promise more govm't give aways.

 

[fix]

That's pretty hilarious after the Republican shenenigans in the 2000 election.

I'd love to introduce you to my friend, who had his vote actively suppressed by Democratic lawyers in 2000 in the State of Florida. His vote was not counted. We know this to be a fact. He was serving overseas in the Marine Corps, making it even more disgusting.

 

[rayra]

Any political poll can be easily skewed in favor for the Dems just by calling only large cities.
Any political poll in CA can just as easily be skewed by calling only the counties around San Fran Bay and L.A. County.

And one of the oft-quoted pollsters, Zogby, is a raving Dem / Islamophile.

And both the LA Times and Zogby got the CA Recall and Gov races MAJORLY Wrong.

Lastly, all major polls, including Gallup's, typically use a call / response sample size of only ~2000 people to generate the National data they spew.

Believe what you want, but be aware of the politics, leanings, and choice of methodology behind them.

 

[Spot77]

I don't care that Kerry is a Democrat; I care that he's a gun grabbing Communist.


I'm fortunate enough to have some VERY pro gun Democrats representing my district here on the local level.

 

[sumpnz]

Thats a joke, the only shenanigans were by Democrats.

Oh, come on. There were shenanigans by both sides. Perhaps more from the Dems, perhaps not, but the Repubs were hardly on the high road at all times. The irony, from something I remember seeing a while back was that if the re-count was done the way Gore wanted (i.e. selected - by him - districts) Bush would win. If they were re-counted the way Bush wanted (the entire state, inlcuding all absentee ballots) Gore would have won. In the end though it doesn't matter. Where's that beating a dead horse animation when you need it?

The only reason a Democrats win is because they consistantly promise more govm't give aways.

Go to any partisan Dem forum and they'll be saying the same thing about the Repubs. Dems promise give aways to the poor and working class. Repubs promsie give aways for the rich and upper-middle class. At least if you believe what each's opposition says.

 

[Little Loudmouth]

I'll make my decision on September 14...

Hmmm. Figure this. If Bush renews the AWB, we go on with having... ahem...cough... assault weapons banned, but if Kerry is elected, he'll most likely try to ban ALL guns. Both unacceptable, but still, when you're in between two evils, choose the lesser.