Americans are buying fewer guns says Smith & Wesson

[Kynoch]

As rcmodel said, Harley found out in the 70's and 80s that they could not sustain sales on the mystic alone. The motorcycles were junk and folks just stopped buying them. Harley almost went the way of the dodo bird.

Nothing like corporate medalling. I think it was AMF that started Harley's near demise.

Harley got government assistance and got their act together and turned around the company where they sold excellent products again.

Back to Smith and Wesson, maybe some of their interesting models in their catalog will make to my part of the world now, lock or not.

That mystique kept HD alive -- not the gov't. It probably still does today. That's true of some Italian makers too. If one was only interested in the highest quality bike, I seriously doubt it would be a hog.

 

[Kynoch]

At the gunshop I work at, sales have declined significantly over the past six months and specifically in the last four. People just aren't buying new guns period, so we aren't buying new guns from our distributors. Even I usually buy used guns anyway, due to the heavy discounts over new.

We have also seen AR-15s steadily trickling in over the last six months and have had our distributors pushing cheaper and cheaper AR-15s nobody wants anymore. If a guy can't afford a nice $600 AR, then how is he going to afford a nice new S&W?

Very interesting input. I got an email today (as I'm sure many many others did) from Anthony over at Henry Rifle asking if I am still looking (I had a question for them about 2 years ago) and that if I was, every effort would be made to put one of the rifles I was considering in a local gun shop so I could evaluate it.

Times are changing. The coming elections are going to mean a great deal.

 

[Kynoch]

I think Ruger is a full line manufacturer. Unless I missed the shotgun page on the S&W website.

Ruger doesn't have much of a "shotgun page" either.

 

[SleazyRider]

Cost of ammo and range fees have all gone up.

Which leads me to wonder how the airgun industry is doing. Speaking personally, the "ammo crisis" has renewed my interest in air guns, of which I've purchase several rifles and pistols during the past two years. I shoot in my basement during the winter months and my backyard when the weather permits. I've done trigger jobs on several of them and mounted scopes. Never had a problem finding pellets, either, at my local WalMart.

 

[HexHead]

Range fees.I live in a suburban area and belong to a club 12 miles away in the country.I pay 35 dollars a year to shoot from sunrise to sunset 7 days a week unless there is a weekend competition.I cannot believe the fees the urban ranges charge for very limited shooting opportunities.I could not afford the practice I need to feel confident for hunting.

Due to OSHA and EPA requirements etc., it costs about $100,000 per lane to build an indoor range these days. Then there's the cost of land in urban settings.

 

[HexHead]

Due to the panic buying of 2013, pretty much everyone that wanted or was thinking about buying a gun, bought one. Or multiples. The demand just isn't there right now. The masses have been satiated.

 

[RX-178]

There was the panic buy of late 2011, which lasted through most of 2012. Followed by the Sandy Hook panic which carried through 2013, and was still in effect all the way up to SHOT 2014.

Sales of guns, particularly evil black rifles doubled, then quadrupled, then climbed some more.

A statement that says 'we'll probably see less gun buyers this year' makes perfect sense to me.

 

[MagnunJoe]

Let's reconvene this threat in the fall on 2015 when Hillary has a 20 point lead over what ever clown the republicans manage throw at her. You guys will see gun sales pick up drastically late next year and continue until HRC gets to the WH and starts attacking gun owners.

 

[RustyShackelford]

Tourists....

I can't speak for all areas of the USA, but I know where I live many of the indoor gun ranges are filled with foreign tourists & visitors from places where they either can't own/carry firearms or the guns are restricted(caliber, type, etc).
The market or conditions don't really change that.

I also don't see another election or incident really swaying public opinion about guns/carry laws. It's a lot of hype & speculation at this point.
I'd add that the AR(5.56mm) craze never really made any sense to me.
The weapon platform could take a lot of add-ons or modifications(sights, scopes, stocks, parts) but what real value does it have to a regular consumer?
You can't carry it around like a M&P Shield or Glock 23 .40S&W. You need to have access to land or a range that permits rifles. You also need to buy 5.56mm rounds which may or may not be available in your area.
I think hype, Hollywood films/TV & panic spur many of the M4/AR rifle sales.

 

[DrBozack]

Non-story.

Not for my stock portfolio.

 

[HankR]

... I know where I live many of the indoor gun ranges are filled with foreign tourists & visitors from places where they either can't own/carry firearms or the guns are restricted...I think hype, Hollywood films/TV & panic spur many of the M4/AR rifle sales.

I see this a lot. We live in a free state, most people have guns but most don't get excited about them as much as folks in less free states (and denizens of THR). This is a college town, and I frequently invite new shooters out to experience firearms. "New shooters" implies not the local kids, but kids from bigger cities or other countries. More than once the newbies have enjoyed the snot out of shooting lever guns and thought the (.22 conversion) AR platform was OK, but not too wonderful. Then one invariably asks "is this an (hushed, guilty tone) AR-15?". Then they want their picture taken with the AR or AR lookalike.

 

[Ed Ames]

I read somewhere that more than 3,000,000 new people a year become legally able to buy rifles/handguns in the US (mostly from turning 18/21).

If gun makers can caputure 1/3rd of that audience, and sell them a long gun and a handgun each, that is 2,000,000 firearms per year just for new shooters. That number counts even if people don't buy as soon as they are legally able. A guy who waits is still part of that cohort as long as he eventually buys. Of course most of us here would encourage a new shooter to buy more than two...some will buy five, others one.

Add replacements (for lost and damaged guns) you probably have 4,000,000+ guns per year just to maintain a steady percentage of gun owners in the US.

Anything above that (fuzzy) line implies the guns per citizen ratio is going up. Either new gun owners coming in who didn't own previously, or owners collecting more guns than they have in the past. Of course recently that has been the case, but it takes a LOT of guns sold to really shift those percentages meaningfully. Seems like you are going to have a burst of interest (as we have seen recently) which tapers off until something else spurs interest.

 

[RustyShackelford]

General interest & focus.....

I think a major point that's over-looked too is the rapid growth overall in the sales/interest in CCW guns & "tactical" firearms in the last 10-15 years or so(2000).
This was a point made in NBC News doc about AR-15s & brought up by a gun/tactics instructor on Crimsontrace's product DVD.
1000s of new gun owners & shooters wanted new M4s & duty type handguns. They also bought the accessories, parts, holsters, gear, etc.
In early 2013, Stag Arms, www.StagArms.com stated they had a 2 year waiting list.
Could many of the US M4/AR makers say that today(July 2014)?
I doubt it.

Rusty

 

[Kynoch]

Which leads me to wonder how the airgun industry is doing. Speaking personally, the "ammo crisis" has renewed my interest in air guns, of which I've purchase several rifles and pistols during the past two years. I shoot in my basement during the winter months and my backyard when the weather permits. I've done trigger jobs on several of them and mounted scopes. Never had a problem finding pellets, either, at my local WalMart.

That's a very good question. A good friend of mine is a serious marksman who shoots several disciplines. When he goes to the range now, he always takes an RWS or Weihrauch rifle and an RWS pistol to accompany his firearms. I'm following his lead. They are a lot of fun and trigger time is trigger time.

 

[Kynoch]

Let's reconvene this threat in the fall on 2015 when Hillary has a 20 point lead over what ever clown the republicans manage throw at her. You guys will see gun sales pick up drastically late next year and continue until HRC gets to the WH and starts attacking gun owners.

I wouldn't count on that. Three things have drastically changed since 2008. First, there are FAR more guns in the system that satiate/are ready to satiate demand. Second, there same goes for ammo. There is a ton stored in peoples' dens/basements/garages across the USA. Third, pro-2A individuals are battle hardened. By that point they will have survived Obama and may have picked-up just a touch of wisdom which might just reduce the knee-jerk/half-cocked reactions of late.

 

[Kynoch]

I read somewhere that more than 3,000,000 new people a year become legally able to buy rifles/handguns in the US (mostly from turning 18/21).

If gun makers can caputure 1/3rd of that audience, and sell them a long gun and a handgun each, that is 2,000,000 firearms per year just for new shooters. That number counts even if people don't buy as soon as they are legally able. A guy who waits is still part of that cohort as long as he eventually buys. Of course most of us here would encourage a new shooter to buy more than two...some will buy five, others one.

Add replacements (for lost and damaged guns) you probably have 4,000,000+ guns per year just to maintain a steady percentage of gun owners in the US.

Anything above that (fuzzy) line implies the guns per citizen ratio is going up. Either new gun owners coming in who didn't own previously, or owners collecting more guns than they have in the past. Of course recently that has been the case, but it takes a LOT of guns sold to really shift those percentages meaningfully. Seems like you are going to have a burst of interest (as we have seen recently) which tapers off until something else spurs interest.

Capturing 1/3 of that market is unrealistic. Nevertheless that theoretical demand has existed for many decades in the USA. Politics and fear and not citizens coming of age is what has driven the buying frenzy.

 

[Potatohead]

Just projections right? So we shall see?

 

[Mosin Bubba]

Let's reconvene this threat in the fall on 2015 when Hillary has a 20 point lead over what ever clown the republicans manage throw at her. You guys will see gun sales pick up drastically late next year and continue until HRC gets to the WH and starts attacking gun owners.

^This.

We are in a bit of a lull right now, because the buying frenzy from 2012-13 couldn't be sustained. But I am certain that as soon as any bad news for gun owners hits, things will pick right up again. If midterm elections go poorly for the Republicans, for example, we could be looking at another panic in under six months.

 

[Onward Allusion]

One thing to note about S&W's projections... It's their sales forecast not the industry's. I don't doubt that industry demand has waned in the last year, but S&W only accounts for just shy of $600MM in industry revenues. Heck, even Taurus is bigger than S&W; with a little over $800MM in sales for 2013. Considering Taurus' prices, that's quite a bit more guns sold than S&W.

All I am saying is that S&W is just but a single player in the industry. Wait 'til the elections or gawd forbid another Aurora, CO or Newtown, CT

 

[JERRY]

gun sales are UP, sales of S&W are down. that my friend is a clue.

 

[Panzerschwein]

Take them locks off there and they'll sell me a 638 lickity split!!!

 

[Kynoch]

It would be interesting to go back to when Obama was first elected president to see the dire predictions people here were putting forth. If one looks closely at the amount of "gun control" that has been added at the federal level during this period, it hasn't been very much.

FWIW, Taurus is larger than Ruger in terms of revenue...

 

[Kynoch]

gun sales are UP, sales of S&W are down. that my friend is a clue.

I'm not so sure about that -- at least not in the last 6-9 months or so. Remington, Ruger, Beretta and others have announced expansion plans. If any of them back out, that would be a very strong indicator. It's going to be fascinating to see what happens between now and the next general election.

 

[Ed Ames]

Capturing 1/3 of that market is unrealistic.

Not sure if I agree in general. I certainly hope you are wrong or the long term gun ownership prospects are bleak.

My ray of hope: Telephone surveys and the like (at least some of them, they are all over the board for obvious reasons) seem to show 34% of the population (which means more than 34%, closer to 50%, of those legally eligible to own) owning guns, and that has been trending upwards slightly over the past decade. It would be going down if the industry wasn't capturing a good fraction of that market.

Nevertheless that theoretical demand has existed for many decades in the USA. Politics and fear and not citizens coming of age is what has driven the buying frenzy.

Agreed. I was trying to divide out the base-line "getting this much business is just treading water" part of the total sales.

I read somewhere that there were 16.some million NICS checks in 2011. Obviously NICS to guns is not a 1:1 relationship but if we say 2 guns per NICS check that is 32 million guns. Strip out 4 million of those as "treading water" sales and you have a "frenzy" of 28 million guns sold. That is one extra gun for every 8 Americans who can legally buy (over 18, not in jail, etc).

How big a frenzy is it if it is only one extra sale per 8 potential buyers?

 

[Kynoch]

Gun gluts have quite a history here in the USA due to mountains of milsurp (both US and domestic) that have been sold over the years following wars. Gunmakers went from feast to famine and it has taken quite a toll on the industry.

Even if demand normalizes naturally, there is still a HUGE number of guns and ammo that have already been purchased in response to politics/fear/uncertainty. In some cases this will keep people from buying more guns for some time because they essentially accelerated their purchases. In other cases people bought guns out of fear and may well dump them once that emotion subsides.

It's going to be a interesting to watch.