Americans are buying fewer guns says Smith & Wesson

[HankR]

One thing to note about S&W's projections... It's their sales forecast not the industry's...

I got some snail mail from Ruger mentioning similar projections awhile ago. I wasn't surprised, as it sounds as if they are projecting less demand than 2013 (not less demand, than say 2003). I thought "no duh" as I round-filed the brochure.

I actually think Ruger will do OK, as they are good at limited runs and not flooding the market--for example, I'm not really in the market for a gun right now but would jump on a .45 Colt Redhawk with a 5.5 inch barrel when they start making them again. I suspect I'm not the only one, and that eventually they'll make another run of them. Meanwhile they'll sell LCRs and SR9Cs while there is still demand for those

 

[Kynoch]

Not sure if I agree in general. I certainly hope you are wrong or the long term gun ownership prospects are bleak.

I would say that easily 1/3 (likely a lot more) of those coming to age are pro-gun and have a favorable view of them, may very well already own legacy guns, but I doubt 1/3 actually buy them near their 18/21 birthdays or possibly at all each year.

My ray of hope: Telephone surveys and the like (at least some of them, they are all over the board for obvious reasons) seem to show 34% of the population (which means more than 34%, closer to 50%, of those legally eligible to own) owning guns, and that has been trending upwards slightly over the past decade. It would be going down if the industry wasn't capturing a good fraction of that market. Agreed. I was trying to divide out the base-line "getting this much business is just treading water" part of the total sales.

Except for the GIANT number of used guns that get sold/traded/bequeathed each year. One large collection to arm a great many citizens.

I read somewhere that there were 16.some million NICS checks in 2011. Obviously NICS to guns is not a 1:1 relationship but if we say 2 guns per NICS check that is 32 million guns. Strip out 4 million of those as "treading water" sales and you have a "frenzy" of 28 million guns sold. That is one extra gun for every 8 Americans who can legally buy (over 18, not in jail, etc). How big a frenzy is it if it is only one extra sale per 8 potential buyers?

I don't think the average per NICS check is 2 guns. My guess is that it's far closer to something like 1.1, 1.01 or 1.001 per check. I suspect by far the largest user of the NICS system is Wal*Mart and by far their biggest sellers are Marlin and Savage .22's. A huge number of those checks were also the sale of used firearms and not new production.

 

[Ed Ames]

I would say that easily 1/3 (likely a lot more) of those coming to age are pro-gun and have a favorable view of them, may very well already own legacy guns, but I doubt 1/3 actually buy them near their 18/21 birthdays or possibly at all each year.

It doesn't need to be at their birthday for the math to work. It just needs to be fairly consistent year over year. So one person buys when she is 18, another waits until he is 32, but year over year the numbers are about the same. The person coming of age doesn't even need to be the buyer. If I buy a gun to give to my daughter when she turns 18, that is still a new gun sold specifically because of her.

Except for the GIANT number of used guns that get sold/traded/bequeathed each year. One large collection to arm a great many citizens.

It really isn't that giant. Less than one gun per person by most estimates, and many (most) of those very very old. There aren't even enough to arm every citizen with a rifle and pistol.

I don't think the average per NICS check is 2 guns. My guess is that it's far closer to something like 1.1, 1.01 or 1.001 per check.

I don't know. It isn't even used in quite a few states, and a number of states have large pools of people who can bypass NICS checks (e.g. concealed carry holders), plus multiple firearms purchased at one time are counted as a single NICS check. I doubt it is less than 1.5 and I wouldn't be surprised to find over two sales per NICS check.

 

[MagnunJoe]

Let's reconvene this threat in the fall on 2015 when Hillary has a 20 point lead over what ever clown the republicans manage throw at her. You guys will see gun sales pick up drastically late next year and continue until HRC gets to the WH and starts attacking gun owners.

Oh, I forgot to mention that Hillary will appoint 2 or 3 Supreme Court judges, several dozen federal judges and a ATF Tzar in her 8 years in the WH. All of them will think like her, meaning they will work against us. How u like them apples?
U think gun sales will spike up again in 18 months when Americans notice what's about to engulf them?

 

[george burns]

These are dangerous times in which we live. It's very misleading when you look at the outward view, but in reality it would take very little to start a monumental conflict, from which we would never recover.
At the first sign of trouble , every gun and box of ammo would be purchased in a matter of hours.

 

[Kynoch]

Oh, I forgot to mention that Hillary will appoint 2 or 3 Supreme Court judges, several dozen federal judges and a ATF Tzar in her 8 years in the WH. All of them will think like her, meaning they will work against us. How u like them apples?
U think gun sales wont spike up in 18 months when Americans notice what's about to engulf them?

Thankfully you don't know she'll be president which pretty much blows your story to pieces...

 

[Kynoch]

These are dangerous times in which we live. It's very misleading when you look at the outward view, but in reality it would take very little to start a monumental conflict, from which we would never recover.
At the first sign of trouble , every gun and box of ammo would be purchased in a matter of hours.

Pretty much been that way for over 200 years in this country. I've met a fair number of people that spent large portions of their lives prepping, worrying and being negative until father time finally took them. A lot of outrageous things could happen that would trigger a run on guns and ammo. That has little to do with the subject of this thread however.

 

[RustyShackelford]

Exactly....

I agree, this topic has swung around like a broken theme park ride, .
To get back to S&W, they've nearly doubled the factory staff from 2008.
The LE/military side keeps making big police contracts. A few state agencies are moving to the 9x19mm in M&Ps. The Shields are growing too.
Id guess that by 2020/2030, the M&P Shield will be like the S&W Chief's Special .38 caliber. It will common as a BUG or concealed carry pistol.

I would say the M&P 5.56x45mm rifles & ARs may slow down in general public sales.

 

[george burns]

Could it also be that many of these gun companies are new to the civilian market, and have taken market share away from S&W.
Years ago it was Colt, Smith, then Ruger and a few others, where as now there are dozens of company's making carry and other types of civilian guns.
Years ago you got a Smith or a Colt, maybe you went exotic and bought a Walther. In the past ten to fifteen years, hundreds of small company's have gotten into the market for guns and gun accessories.
Also up until the 80's a lot of people carried revolvers, because there wasn't the selection that there is now as far as a small thin auto pistol with any power.

 

[22-rimfire]

Another nudge by the politicians and gun sales will skyrocket.

Firearm interests are diversified enough for continued healthy sales. I suspect you may see some of the AR manufacturers dropping out of the game as I'd say that owning 10 ARs is not most people's vision of an accumulation as compared to owning 10 handguns. But the thinking about ARs has been evolving over time to make them much more mainstream in the view of regular people. I'm glad that I am free to make that decision myself versus some government agency making it for me.

 

[george burns]

Exactly if something gets used by a lot of people, it de mystifies it. The more AR, AK users there are, the less the Government will be able to make them into this evil thing that no one should be allowed to own.

 

[Kynoch]

Could it also be that many of these gun companies are new to the civilian market, and have taken market share away from S&W.
Years ago it was Colt, Smith, then Ruger and a few others, where as now there are dozens of company's making carry and other types of civilian guns.
Years ago you got a Smith or a Colt, maybe you went exotic and bought a Walther. In the past ten to fifteen years, hundreds of small company's have gotten into the market for guns and gun accessories.
Also up until the 80's a lot of people carried revolvers, because there wasn't the selection that there is now as far as a small thin auto pistol with any power.

I'm sure the proliferation of AR-15 assemblers is taking a chunk out of traditional bolt action rifle sales and it could be argued that people are buying AR-15 platformed firearms over handguns in some cases. It's remarkable to think that AR-15/AR-10/DPMS 7.62 platforms are now collectively the most common hunting rifles in the US.

There really aren't all that many new big players and that's part of the problem. Gunmaking is a highly stigmatized (and fickle) market to be in. Giant sporting goods companies aren't going to get into the business -- although they certainly did in the past, particularly from a retailing/private-branding standpoint.

 

[Kynoch]

Another nudge by the politicians and gun sales will skyrocket.

Firearm interests are diversified enough for continued healthy sales. I suspect you may see some of the AR manufacturers dropping out of the game as I'd say that owning 10 ARs is not most people's vision of an accumulation as compared to owning 10 handguns. But the thinking about ARs has been evolving over time to make them much more mainstream in the view of regular people. I'm glad that I am free to make that decision myself versus some government agency making it for me.

Naw. I'm beginning to wonder if some who bought at top dollar are hoping to cash-in or at least break even?

 

[Kynoch]

Exactly if something gets used by a lot of people, it de mystifies it. The more AR, AK users there are, the less the Government will be able to make them into this evil thing that no one should be allowed to own.

No. To those politicos wishing to use gun control as a wedge issue, they'll always vilify modern sporting weapons, based simply upon their looks because they have no other angle in which to attack.

Just like those morons open carrying AK/AR-platformed rifles with the belief that seeing them more regularly will put people at ease. Hogwash.

 

[22-rimfire]

With purchases during the AR sales spree, for me, I'll just take my lumps if it were the case. I have always considered firearm purchases to be money poured down a hole (usually a black hole at that) and if and when you sell something, the price is what it is. It is a hobby not a business for me.

We're seeing the next gun control push developing now with guns in general and certainly AR/modern sporting weapons will be at the top of the list for them.

 

[itsa pain]

I'm not so sure about that -- at least not in the last 6-9 months or so. Remington, Ruger, Beretta and others have announced expansion plans. If any of them back out, that would be a very strong indicator. It's going to be fascinating to see what happens between now and the next general election.

We don't need no more gun making we need more ammo making

 

[Kynoch]

With purchases during the AR sales spree, for me, I'll just take my lumps if it were the case. I have always considered firearm purchases to be money poured down a hole (usually a black hole at that) and if and when you sell something, the price is what it is. It is a hobby not a business for me.

We're seeing the next gun control push developing now with guns in general and certainly AR/modern sporting weapons will be at the top of the list for them.

Where? By whom?

At the federal level has there been ANY new gun control laws since Obama was elected?

 

[22-rimfire]

The Bloomberg sponsored groups are becoming more active. And there is the Sportsman Act. My guess is that the bill will die on the floor when it gets cluttered up with tacked on amendments. That doesn't mean these people won't try.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-fight-brewing-in-the-senate/?wpisrc=nl_pmpol

 

[MagnunJoe]

Thankfully you don't know she'll be president which pretty much blows your story to pieces...

U r kidding right? Think outside the box 4 a minute. Who is gonna beat Hillary?

 

[buck460XVR]

Where? By whom?

At the federal level has there been ANY new gun control laws since Obama was elected?

^^^Exactly, but still we have gone thru 6 years of gun, ammo and reloading component shortages because folks are acting like "The Little Red Hen". Same folks that are blaming the current administration for the shortages are the ones that are responsible for it by creating the conspiracy theories and "what if" scenarios that are the cause for the panic buying and hoarding. After every mass shooting there is a run on ammo and guns again because these same folks claim...."here it comes" again. Yet it still has not come. The current downtrend in gun and ammo sales is proof that not only do most Americans have enough, they have also had enough of listening to other folks crying "Wolf"!

 

[Sav .250]

After the last election, panic buying was the engine that drove the train.

I`m thinking now most have what they wanted (ammo, weapons) hence some what of a slow down .

If it don`t go out the front door............It sits on the shelf.

 

[Kynoch]

U r kidding right? Think outside the box 4 a minute. Who is gonna beat Hillary?

What does this have to do with thinking outside of the box? If anything I'm not accepting the apathetic conclusion that Clinton will be the next president.

While the GOP does seem to have a gift for picking losers no one even knows if she'll be the Democratic Party nomination. Further it's not a matter of someone beating her, but Clinton beating herself. She's got a terrific amount of baggage...

 

[Kynoch]

^^^Exactly, but still we have gone thru 6 years of gun, ammo and reloading component shortages because folks are acting like "The Little Red Hen". Same folks that are blaming the current administration for the shortages are the ones that are responsible for it by creating the conspiracy theories and "what if" scenarios that are the cause for the panic buying and hoarding. After every mass shooting there is a run on ammo and guns again because these same folks claim...."here it comes" again. Yet it still has not come. The current downtrend in gun and ammo sales is proof that not only do most Americans have enough, they have also had enough of listening to other folks crying "Wolf"!

ABSOLUTELY! That doesn't mean that some wouldn't like to institute more gun control, nor does it mean that we shouldn't be vigilant and prepared. What it should mean is that we don't stand in line to buy more ammo that we're not going to shoot anytime soon just to add to our hoards.

Many on these forums talking about hoarding ammo as if it were sex! As if their ammo supply was something to boast about! Get what you need by all means but don't feed the panic. Sadly these very people will stop hoarding once it's no longer fashionable amongst their ilk to do so.

 

[Kynoch]

The Bloomberg sponsored groups are becoming more active. And there is the Sportsman Act. My guess is that the bill will die on the floor when it gets cluttered up with tacked on amendments. That doesn't mean these people won't try.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-fight-brewing-in-the-senate/?wpisrc=nl_pmpol

"Bloomberg sponsored groups" pertaining to guns have existed for years...

His latest concoction "Everytown for Gun Safety" is already beginning to falter.

 

[CopperFouling]

Well for the last 6-8 years Americans have been buying at a record pace. The market had to get saturated at some point.

Definitely. Panic buying can't sustain itself indefinitely, especially not with middle-class wages having been flat for so long and rising costs in other sectors like healthcare.