Snejdarek
Member
The 2015 legal firearm ownership statistics are out in the Czech Republic and, not surprisingly, the number of firearms bought by Czechs has risen by unprecedented number - 54.300 new guns.
For those who don't know anything about the Czech gun laws, follow the link. Basics: one needs a license to own a gun in the country. Licenses are shall issue, including CCW (also for NATO country citizens, i.e. for Americans).
Relative to population, that is akin to Americans buying 1.7 million new guns. Relative to number of gun owners (which is 3% of Czech population and according to this 47% of American population), it is akin to Americans buying 25 million new guns (please feel free to correct me on this).
What is somewhat surprising is the fact that the actual number of the gun owners in the Czech Republic remained unchanged (it is actually lower by 200 people). Here are some numbers for the past few years:
Number of registered firearms
2011: 706.900
2012: 721.054
2013: 736.405
2014: 752.387
2015: 806.895
Number of licensed gun owners.
2011: 311.667
2012: 306.815
2013: 292.976
2014: 292.283
2015: 292.022
Here's some older graph:
Some explanations of these number - in my humble opinion:
1. Falling number of gun owners.
A. Failed renewals
Firearms licenses are shall issue and are issued for a period of 5 years. To renew a license, a person needs to (1) get a stamp from general practitioner and (2) file for renewal. Some people forget to do so (not many - police actually send out letters kindly inviting you not to forget to renew your license in time), many simply decide they don't want/need guns any more (especially older people who have hunting licenses and are not up to hunting any more and at the same time live in a safe enough areas that they conclude they don't need a gun for HD).
B. DUI
In order to keep a license, a person may not commit specified misdemeanors and any intentional crime. Since gun owners are more law abiding than general population (like in US), this would not slice the numbers much. However, for years, having DUI has been a reason for loss of firearms license. Only in past several years, however, the police started connecting their databases of DUIs with database of gun owners. Czech Republic is no Russia in DUI regard, however in a country where drinking is extremely socially acceptable and drugs are decriminalized, it is easy to see why this may have some effect on number of licensed gun owners.
C. Czech Republic is a safe country
Despite all the terror attacks, Russian invasion of Ukraine and mass muslim immigration to neighboring Austria and Germany, none of these had any effect on general safety in the Czech Republic. Prague remains one of the European safest cities and most immigration to the country is legal from Ukraine and Vietnam - on work permits. Getting gun license is a process that mostly requires passing a firearms exam, getting a stamp from general practitioner and most people simply don't feel the need to own a gun.
D. It takes time to get a license now
That being said, the migrant wave did have impact on the number of firearms applications. The wave, however, culminated in September. As many new applications were lodged, the number of exams opened catered to the typical situation, i.e. the exams for October-December may have been filled up completely, but with very little effect on the overall number of licenses issued. Since the examiners are licensed private persons, i.e. it is in their best interest to have as many exams opened as possible, there are currently in Prague alone 6 times more exams opened than in the same time last year. Still, the exams are full at least 3-4 months in advance (while two years ago, it would be enough to sign up a couple of weeks in advance). Thus the rise in demand for new licenses will be mostly seen in this years' statistics.
Once the formalities are fulfilled, the police have 30 days to issue the license (i.e. do background check). Last person I know that had one issued after 2 weeks.
E. First mass shooting didn't lead to stricter gun control.
Czech Republic had its first mass shooting in February last year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uherský_Brod_shooting
Immediately after it happened, several people with no interest to guns told me something along the line "I need to get license before the tighten the rules."
However, within a couple of weeks it become clear that no such thing will happen. I myself was very surprised by the fact that there have been no vocal gun control voices in the government following this incident. Although there is a proposal for change of the Firearms Act in the parliament now, the changes are quite timid - licenses will be issued for 5 years instead of 10 (the change to 10 years was enacted in 2014) and - most controversially - the police will have the right to take guns away from a person whom they reasonably believe to be nuts - including the right to enter home (this part will be most probably either changed in parliament to requiring court order or challenged in front of the Constitutional Court as it is clearly unconstitutional). The person will then have 30 days to obtain general practitioner's stamp that their head is OK in order to get guns back. Under current law, police may ask for a new general practitioner's stamp, but only after the person fails to get one can revoke the license and get the guns. In Uherský Brod, the shooter went rampage exactly because the police got information from his family that he is nuts and his license was about to be revoked as his GP refused to sign his papers.
2. 50K new guns
A. Economy is good
Czech economy is doing good with 4.5% year on year expansion. People are buying new toys, so are the gun owners.
B. Getting a new gun is much faster than getting a license
While getting a license takes time, especially now that many more people want them, getting a gun is simple and fast.
For bolt actions, non-repeating shotguns and similar guns, it is going to shop, presenting valid license, buying gun, taking it (immediately), registering within 10 days.
For semi-autos, it is going to police station, getting permit (shall issue, issued within minutes as long as the license is valid and there is no reason for license revocation like a new DUI), going to shop, buying gun, taking it (immediately), registering within 10 days.
(Full autos are may issue and process is not that straightforward.)
Between the Uherský Brod shooting, war in Ukraine, migration crisis in nearby Austria and Germany and the recent EU proposal to ban semi-auto rifles, there has been enough incentive for existing gun owners to buy more guns.
C. People with licenses but no guns
There is a certain number of people who get a license, but are happy enough to just shoot now and then at the range and not having a gun at home (otherwise, they would need a presence of instructor when shooting rented guns). For example, my general practitioner, a woman in her late 20s, told me she has the license but feels no need to actually get a gun.
Given the same reasons stated above, I suppose that this has changed for many unarmed licensees.
D. Changing gun owners population
You may not know that the Czech Republic had the highest gun ownership among the communist countries - it was actually 6 times higher than the CURRENT gun ownership in Poland. As long as a person was not considered nuisance to the dictatorship (for whatever reason), they could get guns either for hunting or sport shooting. (The Czechoslovak communist gun laws were actually pretty similar to the one they have in Germany now)
Many of those old school gun owners - especially hunters - are content with having one over-under for firing shotgun shells at ducks and bullets at wild boar.
I believe that these people represent the largest proportion of those losing licenses (failing to renew or simply dying out), while newly issued licenses are predominantly CC licenses obtained by young folk. Many of the new gun owners are and will not be not contempt with having one gun.
3. Trends for 2016
A. Losing guns
As I mentioned, EU has proposed baning "black" semi-auto rifles. While there is a clear opposition from several EU countries, there would have to be countries with 35% population in order to veto that proposal. We are nowhere near that right now. Clearly against are Czech Republic which pulled in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, and Estonia which pulled in Latvia and Lithuania. Sweden and Finland seem likely to try to work their own deal (a national exception) instead of objecting loud. There are still several undecided countries. I was hoping for Italy to join the veto, but it seems they will support the ban. So will probably also Germany which so far objected only on technical grounds (which may be easily solved).
Should the EU Gun Ban pass, and unless Czech Republic gets exception, there will be a massive rise in semi-auto rifles purchases before ban and subsequent filing of losses of tens of thousands of these rifles.
Czech gun owners association already pleaded to gun owners to get ready for civil disobedience. In my opinion, Czech government will fight until the last breath against the gun ban/to get exception to avoid scenario in which cops have nothing to do for next 5 years than chasing law abiding citizens who filed their guns as "lost". Not to mention rise of black market same as in early 1990s.
B. More gun owners, more guns
As I said, while the interest in licenses rose up after last September, it will be only now that we will be seeing rise in number of licenses being actually issued. I believe that this will continue until June and then either slow down or extremely exacerbate depending on the migration situation and terrorism (which, right now, in the Czech Republic exists only in the newspapers).
Meanwhile the existing lot will be also buying more guns the same as this year. I know I will. So will my GF.
C. More female owners
Women interest in guns in the Czech Republic has been going up especially in the past 3-4 years. Given the mass rape epidemic in nearby Germany, Austria, that is most striking as regards the gang rapes of 126 women within 3 hours in Cologne town square, I think that women will now be extremely interested in being armed and CCing.
D. Idiot owners
As I said, the Czech Republic is a safe country with terrorism as well as migrants steering away from it. Nevertheless, right wing extremists found the EU migrant crisis as a new topic after the gypsy-hatred had lost its appeal. People who tend to sympathize with this lot tend to feel more in danger by the muslim immigration (albeit non existent in the Czech Republic - as of yet). They are also likely to want to be armed disproportionately more compared to the general population. We just need to hope that these people won't be doing a bad reputation for the rest of the gun owners.
Feel free to ask any questions.
For those who don't know anything about the Czech gun laws, follow the link. Basics: one needs a license to own a gun in the country. Licenses are shall issue, including CCW (also for NATO country citizens, i.e. for Americans).
Relative to population, that is akin to Americans buying 1.7 million new guns. Relative to number of gun owners (which is 3% of Czech population and according to this 47% of American population), it is akin to Americans buying 25 million new guns (please feel free to correct me on this).
What is somewhat surprising is the fact that the actual number of the gun owners in the Czech Republic remained unchanged (it is actually lower by 200 people). Here are some numbers for the past few years:
Number of registered firearms
2011: 706.900
2012: 721.054
2013: 736.405
2014: 752.387
2015: 806.895
Number of licensed gun owners.
2011: 311.667
2012: 306.815
2013: 292.976
2014: 292.283
2015: 292.022
Here's some older graph:
Some explanations of these number - in my humble opinion:
1. Falling number of gun owners.
A. Failed renewals
Firearms licenses are shall issue and are issued for a period of 5 years. To renew a license, a person needs to (1) get a stamp from general practitioner and (2) file for renewal. Some people forget to do so (not many - police actually send out letters kindly inviting you not to forget to renew your license in time), many simply decide they don't want/need guns any more (especially older people who have hunting licenses and are not up to hunting any more and at the same time live in a safe enough areas that they conclude they don't need a gun for HD).
B. DUI
In order to keep a license, a person may not commit specified misdemeanors and any intentional crime. Since gun owners are more law abiding than general population (like in US), this would not slice the numbers much. However, for years, having DUI has been a reason for loss of firearms license. Only in past several years, however, the police started connecting their databases of DUIs with database of gun owners. Czech Republic is no Russia in DUI regard, however in a country where drinking is extremely socially acceptable and drugs are decriminalized, it is easy to see why this may have some effect on number of licensed gun owners.
C. Czech Republic is a safe country
Despite all the terror attacks, Russian invasion of Ukraine and mass muslim immigration to neighboring Austria and Germany, none of these had any effect on general safety in the Czech Republic. Prague remains one of the European safest cities and most immigration to the country is legal from Ukraine and Vietnam - on work permits. Getting gun license is a process that mostly requires passing a firearms exam, getting a stamp from general practitioner and most people simply don't feel the need to own a gun.
D. It takes time to get a license now
That being said, the migrant wave did have impact on the number of firearms applications. The wave, however, culminated in September. As many new applications were lodged, the number of exams opened catered to the typical situation, i.e. the exams for October-December may have been filled up completely, but with very little effect on the overall number of licenses issued. Since the examiners are licensed private persons, i.e. it is in their best interest to have as many exams opened as possible, there are currently in Prague alone 6 times more exams opened than in the same time last year. Still, the exams are full at least 3-4 months in advance (while two years ago, it would be enough to sign up a couple of weeks in advance). Thus the rise in demand for new licenses will be mostly seen in this years' statistics.
Once the formalities are fulfilled, the police have 30 days to issue the license (i.e. do background check). Last person I know that had one issued after 2 weeks.
E. First mass shooting didn't lead to stricter gun control.
Czech Republic had its first mass shooting in February last year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uherský_Brod_shooting
Immediately after it happened, several people with no interest to guns told me something along the line "I need to get license before the tighten the rules."
However, within a couple of weeks it become clear that no such thing will happen. I myself was very surprised by the fact that there have been no vocal gun control voices in the government following this incident. Although there is a proposal for change of the Firearms Act in the parliament now, the changes are quite timid - licenses will be issued for 5 years instead of 10 (the change to 10 years was enacted in 2014) and - most controversially - the police will have the right to take guns away from a person whom they reasonably believe to be nuts - including the right to enter home (this part will be most probably either changed in parliament to requiring court order or challenged in front of the Constitutional Court as it is clearly unconstitutional). The person will then have 30 days to obtain general practitioner's stamp that their head is OK in order to get guns back. Under current law, police may ask for a new general practitioner's stamp, but only after the person fails to get one can revoke the license and get the guns. In Uherský Brod, the shooter went rampage exactly because the police got information from his family that he is nuts and his license was about to be revoked as his GP refused to sign his papers.
2. 50K new guns
A. Economy is good
Czech economy is doing good with 4.5% year on year expansion. People are buying new toys, so are the gun owners.
B. Getting a new gun is much faster than getting a license
While getting a license takes time, especially now that many more people want them, getting a gun is simple and fast.
For bolt actions, non-repeating shotguns and similar guns, it is going to shop, presenting valid license, buying gun, taking it (immediately), registering within 10 days.
For semi-autos, it is going to police station, getting permit (shall issue, issued within minutes as long as the license is valid and there is no reason for license revocation like a new DUI), going to shop, buying gun, taking it (immediately), registering within 10 days.
(Full autos are may issue and process is not that straightforward.)
Between the Uherský Brod shooting, war in Ukraine, migration crisis in nearby Austria and Germany and the recent EU proposal to ban semi-auto rifles, there has been enough incentive for existing gun owners to buy more guns.
C. People with licenses but no guns
There is a certain number of people who get a license, but are happy enough to just shoot now and then at the range and not having a gun at home (otherwise, they would need a presence of instructor when shooting rented guns). For example, my general practitioner, a woman in her late 20s, told me she has the license but feels no need to actually get a gun.
Given the same reasons stated above, I suppose that this has changed for many unarmed licensees.
D. Changing gun owners population
You may not know that the Czech Republic had the highest gun ownership among the communist countries - it was actually 6 times higher than the CURRENT gun ownership in Poland. As long as a person was not considered nuisance to the dictatorship (for whatever reason), they could get guns either for hunting or sport shooting. (The Czechoslovak communist gun laws were actually pretty similar to the one they have in Germany now)
Many of those old school gun owners - especially hunters - are content with having one over-under for firing shotgun shells at ducks and bullets at wild boar.
I believe that these people represent the largest proportion of those losing licenses (failing to renew or simply dying out), while newly issued licenses are predominantly CC licenses obtained by young folk. Many of the new gun owners are and will not be not contempt with having one gun.
3. Trends for 2016
A. Losing guns
As I mentioned, EU has proposed baning "black" semi-auto rifles. While there is a clear opposition from several EU countries, there would have to be countries with 35% population in order to veto that proposal. We are nowhere near that right now. Clearly against are Czech Republic which pulled in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, and Estonia which pulled in Latvia and Lithuania. Sweden and Finland seem likely to try to work their own deal (a national exception) instead of objecting loud. There are still several undecided countries. I was hoping for Italy to join the veto, but it seems they will support the ban. So will probably also Germany which so far objected only on technical grounds (which may be easily solved).
Should the EU Gun Ban pass, and unless Czech Republic gets exception, there will be a massive rise in semi-auto rifles purchases before ban and subsequent filing of losses of tens of thousands of these rifles.
Czech gun owners association already pleaded to gun owners to get ready for civil disobedience. In my opinion, Czech government will fight until the last breath against the gun ban/to get exception to avoid scenario in which cops have nothing to do for next 5 years than chasing law abiding citizens who filed their guns as "lost". Not to mention rise of black market same as in early 1990s.
B. More gun owners, more guns
As I said, while the interest in licenses rose up after last September, it will be only now that we will be seeing rise in number of licenses being actually issued. I believe that this will continue until June and then either slow down or extremely exacerbate depending on the migration situation and terrorism (which, right now, in the Czech Republic exists only in the newspapers).
Meanwhile the existing lot will be also buying more guns the same as this year. I know I will. So will my GF.
C. More female owners
Women interest in guns in the Czech Republic has been going up especially in the past 3-4 years. Given the mass rape epidemic in nearby Germany, Austria, that is most striking as regards the gang rapes of 126 women within 3 hours in Cologne town square, I think that women will now be extremely interested in being armed and CCing.
D. Idiot owners
As I said, the Czech Republic is a safe country with terrorism as well as migrants steering away from it. Nevertheless, right wing extremists found the EU migrant crisis as a new topic after the gypsy-hatred had lost its appeal. People who tend to sympathize with this lot tend to feel more in danger by the muslim immigration (albeit non existent in the Czech Republic - as of yet). They are also likely to want to be armed disproportionately more compared to the general population. We just need to hope that these people won't be doing a bad reputation for the rest of the gun owners.
Feel free to ask any questions.
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