Does Ron Paul have a chance?

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rhubarb. That's a really great position to have up until the primaries. I think we should all do whatever we can to make Ron Paul our election candidate.


But after the primaries are over and it's either:

Hillary vs. McCain
Hillary vs. Rudy
Obama vs. McCain
Obama vs. Rudy


Then we have some different decisions to make. Practical real world decisions.
 
Here in New Hampshire, he's going to be on the primary Manchester tv station's news doing the "Ask a candidate" bit at least. I'm going to see if Gun Owners of New Hampshire might endorse him early (or at all), and there's a couple local talk/politics radio shows (Jay Severin for one) that should hear his name from callers. Jay Severin is a self-described little-L libertarian/libertine Republican political campaign manager who is currently talking up Romney like he's the second coming of Abraham Lincoln... :barf:
 
Taurus Said

That's what it comes down to. The GOP candidates would at least hesitate about signing (sic AWB). The Dems will not.

Totally disagree. Neither side will think. They will consult the polls, their lobbyists, talking heads and determine what the best course of action is for #1. The only real principal that most politicians are dedicated to is how to stay in power for one more election.

True the Democrats are the more scary fascists of the bunch but there is no real difference these days between the two.
 
And where do polls get their numbers...?


As much as both parties are equally power hungry and self serving; at some point, they all go back to what actually got them elected: their constituents. Of course when they do go back to that, it will only be to get elected again, or to look good when one of their scandals comes out, but the fact remains, each politician does look to what his supporters elected him for. Not for any honorable reason, but they look there just the same.

If an AWB comes up in 2011 or early 2012, if there is GOP pres, he will probably vote against it. But the Dem pres will vote for it. Why? Because that's what their supporters want them to do. And that's what gets the votes.

Election year politics, while shameful and telling of the dishonesty of the other 3 years of a term, do get some things done that the supporters of whoever is in power wants. The same with a scandal. Both parties are self-serving and power hungry. But if the SHTF during a term, the try to draw the attention away by trying to do something good. While that is also shameful, the actions themselves can turn out good.
 
If an AWB comes up in 2011 or early 2012, if there is GOP pres, he will probably vote against it.
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If you take a look at the history of gun control legislation, you might think differently.

Most incumbent Republican Presidents would be more likely, IMO, to take a position counter to what their base wants in order to draw whatever votes they can from the other side, because, as we're seeing here, many members of the Grand Old Party will vote GOP no matter what their candidate stands for.
 
August, that is an interesting and probably very valid point. I had not thought of that angle. That being said, I still think we have a better chance with someone who may vote for an AWB than we do with someone who will vote for one.
 
Dang it Augustwest

A man goes to all the trouble of setting up a carefully laid ambush and you go and steal all my thunder....

Yep, what he said. That has what history has shown us.
 
But after the primaries are over and it's either:

Hillary vs. McCain
Hillary vs. Rudy
Obama vs. McCain
Obama vs. Rudy

Then we have some different decisions to make. Practical real world decisions.
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Thank you taurusowner for providing a clear example of the attitude I was chastising in my post. Until we begin to regard Ron Paul as a "practical real world" candidate, he will not be one.

I for one look forward to calling Ron Paul "Mr. President."
 
But he will also not be one for a while after we begin. Your ideas work great for primaries, and through the primaries we can look forward to a day when real candidates have a shot. But this isn't magic. It's not a switch we can flip where if we just believe in Paul, he will all of a sudden be able to overcome the political climate pervading America. It's going to take time. And in the mean time, realism for this election is necessary. One step at a time.
 
So a Republican president might actually sign an AWB because of all those "vote against the AWB by voting Rep" folks?

It's an interesting thought, not least of which because then Stage2 can be on my list to blame when it happens. ;)
 
I will not vote for Giuliani, Romney or McCain. Not for president, not for dog catcher. If that means President Hillary, then so be it. Things can't be allowed to continue as they are. If the status quo is working for you, then do what you think is right.

David
 
Try to look at it this way...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rudy G gets nominated and is on the ticket running against Clinton. There is something in the water so on election day he is down 20 points in the polls and it is likely that the only state he will carry is New Hampshire who will you vote for?

If you say Rudy G than you are throwing your vote anyway. So why do it? You don't really believe in what he stands for and he has no hope of winning so why?
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If it comes down to a Rudy/Hillary race, I just stay home, since there's no "None of the above" choice.
 
Taurus

You are starting to sound a lot more like a GOP apologist with every post.

This has little to do with primaries and a lot to do with doing the right thing. If we give up our rights in pieces or all at once why do anything at all? We could just bury our heads in the sand and do what 48% of the population does and not vote at all and have the same result as the path you are suggesting. So why vote for someone that you know for certain will not fully support your position? As someone else pointed out hope is not a method....
 
I just LOVE the false logic pervading here that a vote for Paul in the primaries is somehow a vote for the Hilldabeast in the general election. Paul's likely smart enough to stay out of the general election race if he doesn't get the nomination in the primary or picked up for the VP slot, no matter how well he does in the primaries. Do you think HE wants to see the Hilldabeast as president? Do you think HE wants to be seen as a "spoiler" by conservatives?

My guess is that if we get out there and talk the guy up, spread his name around, spread the principles around, and get attention on him, he can do well in the primaries. NH is key to presidential politics due to our primary. We also have a strong libertarian streak, though it's being diluted by the influx of socialists from MA and other places. The neo-cons are also extremely unpopular, which leaves a distinct opening in there for an anti-war, anti-empire Republican to snatch up votes in the primary.

If Paul recieves enough votes in the primary, he shifts the debate farther towards small government for the Republicans. The neo-cons and other RINO's need to be sent the message that they can and will be tossed out or at the very least damaged at the primary level if they abandon the base and republican principles of small government. And we need to do our part, as advocates of smaller government, to help shift the debate more in our favor.

I'm hoping that there's a mobilization of the small l libertarians in support of Paul, as well as the liberty caucus of the Republican party, in support, to at the LEAST help shift the discourse more in our favor, and HOPEFULLY get him a VP slot due to popularity, much like the Dems went for Edwards as Kerry's running mate due to his popularity in 2004.
 
Titan:

I'm an anti-Democrat. I'll vote with my conscience in the primaries, and by God I hope Paul makes it. But in the election, my goal is absolutely clear: defeat the Democrats. I'm not a GOP apologist, I just hate everything about the Democratic party. Every issues, not just RKBA. In the general election, I will vote for whoever I think has the best chance of running the Democrat candidate into the ground. If it's Paul, all the better. But if it's not, than it's not.

The GOP may be disappointing, but the Democrats are dangerous. "Doing the right thing" and honor are great sentiments to have, but they will be little real comfort if the Democrats seize all 3 branches of government. The damage they will do will be irreparable and devastating. I'm a realist. I don't like a lot of what the GOP does. It's self serving and greedy. But they are not out to harm me. They will harm me if it serves them, but harming me is not a gaol by itself.

I see harming me as one of the Democratic parties goals by itself.


I just LOVE the false logic pervading here that a vote for Paul in the primaries is somehow a vote for the Hilldabeast in the general election.
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Liberty, exactly who, if anyone, has said that votes in the primaries affect votes in the general? I'm not quite sure what you mean.
 
I am not a Republican, but I know He has a snowball chance in hell to win the primary. The corporations and big money that fund the Republican party would never back a person like Paul. He would do better if he ran as a independent where he could appeal to the majority of the people. Personally, I have given up all hope on the Republican party to change from within, Its not going to happen. We have a better chance of trying to convince moderate Democrats to be pro gun than change the Republican leadership.
 
That being said, I still think we have a better chance with someone who may vote for an AWB than we do with someone who will vote for one.
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It surely is your right to think that. I've just been disappointed enough times in the past not to buy it. And I'm just now sort creeping up on middle age - I'm not that old...

On a side note, it's a veto, not a vote.
 
So a Republican president might actually sign an AWB because of all those "vote against the AWB by voting Rep" folks?

It's an interesting thought, not least of which because then Stage2 can be on my list to blame when it happens.
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All of you guys are totally ridiculous. Vote for whoever you want in the primaries. My vote will probably go to Tancredo though I know he won't win. But when Paul doesn't win, AND HE WON'T, why in the world would you waste a vote?

Thats exactly what is is. A waste. I can't believe that the people here that LOVE it when Nader runs are the same people that are going to "do the right thing" and vote for a non-candidate.

Wise the hell up. A Democrat in the oval office will GUARANTEE a passed AWB. A republican candidate may or may not sign it. No matter what you believe WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEFEATING ANY AWB WITH A REPUBLICAN ON OFFICE.

Your lofty morals won't be much good when we go back to the days of 10 round mags and no ak's or ar's. The writing is on the wall. If you choose to ignore it, you are part of the problem.

Remember. This is a war. The winner is the one who fights smart. Not the one who hopelessly rides into battle because its a "matter of honor". Kind of the whole concept of making the other poor bastard die for his country, ya know.
 
I keep hearing "you should vote for the lesser of two evils", but if we can get him to win the republican primarys we won't have too. All this complaning that he can't win the primarys and that some how a vote for him a waste and will some how help the Democrats is crazy.
 
STAGE 2 sez...

1) All of you guys are totally ridiculous. Vote for whoever you want in the primaries. My vote will probably go to Tancredo though I know he won't win.

2) But when Paul doesn't win, AND HE WON'T, why in the world would you waste a vote?
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In part 1, you say you'll vote for someone that won't win.
In part 2, you say that if I vote for someone that won't win, that I'm wasting my vote (and that I'm totally ridiculous).

:confused:

And in the realistic world, have any of you frequented the Gun section at the DU lately? Lots of conversation there by Demo gun owners about "teaming up" with Republican gun owners. The reason? They are startin' to see the light about bans and are as concerned as you and me.

I'd give serious thought to the idea of a very large chunk of Dems voting for RP on gun rights alone.

Matter of fact, that's exactly what I'd like to base this election on...RKBA.

t


PS: Taurus, You would do well not to wait until the primaries to lift a finger. "Wait"? Heck no, help to create the choices. ;)
 
I keep hearing "you should vote for the lesser of two evils", but if we can get him to win the republican primarys we won't have too. All this complaning that he can't win the primarys and that some how a vote for him a waste and will some how help the Democrats is crazy.
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All of us who are talking about the lesser of two evils understand 100% that it has nothing to do with the primaries. We are only talking about the general election. We're going to vote for who we think is actually the best in the primary. I'm voting for Ron Paul. Now the general election is a whole different issue. If Ron Paul doesn't make it into the election, than we really are faced with 2 evils, and that's it.


Does everyone here understand the concept of a split vote?

Say there are 3 candidates. 1 lib and 2 conservatives. 10,000 people vote for the lib. 9,000 vote for conservative 1, and 2,000 vote for conservative 2. Who wins? The lib. Why because 2,000 people wasted their voted on a hopeless candidate, and now all conservatives lost.


Please, for the love of God, or xenu, or whoever, vote with your conscience in the primaries. Let us all try our hardest to get Paul or Tancredo to win the Republican nomination. BUT if both of them lose the primary, and the Republicans are stuck with a McCain or Rudy, please do not vote third party in the general election.


Conservatives and libertarians CANNOT afford to split their votes and and let Obama or Hillary divide conquer us. In the general election, we NEED to unite and defeat the Democratic party. And the sad fact is, the only way to defeat the Democratic party is to get the Republican party to win.



Look what happened last election. A bunch of people tried to "send a message" to the Republican party by either not voting, or voting third party. And what was the message then ended up getting through? "We want the Dems to win." And they did. And now we have AWBII. AWBII is on the heads of everyone who did not vote to defeat the Dems. And the same will be said in the general election if we don't wise up and deal with the sad reality of a 2 party system.
 
In part 1, you say you'll vote for someone that won't win.
In part 2, you say that if I vote for someone that won't win, that I'm wasting my vote (and that I'm totally ridiculous).
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This may be why we have the problem that we do:rolleyes:

I'm going to vote for who I believe is the best candidate in the primary. If a majority of republicans decide the nominee should be someone other than Tancredo (which they will) or Paul (which they most certianly will) then the GOP is going to throw all of their time money and resources behind that particular person.

If you place a vote for someone other than the person who has the backing of the GOP in the general election its a wasted vote. You are completely spitting into the wind, and helping the Democrats while you do it.

Thats the difference.
 
Primaries are not about defeating the Democrats, they are about picking the best contender to defeat the Democrats. Once a contender is picked, we must unite behind that person to defeat the Democrats in the general election.
 
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