Firearms Industry suffering because of Trump win.

[ATLDave]

Eh, surely we can all acknowledge that firearms purchases were artificially inflated by fear of impending regulation. Any time a good or activity is (actually or in perception) about to be prohibited, there's going to be a run on that thing.

I've often told my anti-gun friends that, if they seriously believe that guns or the overall supply of guns cause crime/murder/death/injury, then the smartest thing they could do is never talk about gun control again.

 

[AlexanderA]

If more people write their reps and we get the Hearing Protection Act passed there will be another boom in the industry. All the regular companies can dabble in new features and even try their hand at their own line of suppressors (which will be in high demand right off the bat).

Interesting that you would say that. The other side of the coin is that as the Hearing Protection Act is introduced and hyped, but not passed (or remains in limbo for years), it will put a pall over the suppressor industry as people wait to see the outcome. Right now, people have their hopes up, but realistically, the chance of passage is small. I think that, from a business point of view, the suppressor industry made a huge mistake in pushing for the HPA. Some of those companies may not survive, with demand for their products down as much as it is.

 

[Zoogster]

A lot of people spent disproportionate amounts of their income on firearms during Obama in at least two panics and many would not have been able to keep it up.
The market would have went down under Hilary as well, it just might have held out a couple more years, which even if you are in the firearm industry is not a good trade off for increased firearm restrictions and less freedom in the future.

Hilary's win was a sure thing according to the media.
So I can't fault people in the firearm industry for over investing in inventory and expansion.

 

[Ryanxia]

Interesting that you would say that. The other side of the coin is that as the Hearing Protection Act is introduced and hyped, but not passed (or remains in limbo for years), it will put a pall over the suppressor industry as people wait to see the outcome. Right now, people have their hopes up, but realistically, the chance of passage is small. I think that, from a business point of view, the suppressor industry made a huge mistake in pushing for the HPA. Some of those companies may not survive, with demand for their products down as much as it is.

They certainly weren't wrong in pushing for it but initially the spin of 'oh this should pass' made too many people decide to wait for their suppressor purchases. The other thing is that people spent their wad on suppressors before 41F finalized in July last year so that creates a bit of a slump, especially since most of us don't even have those ones in hand yet. I think as the many suppressors that were bought last year get out of NFA jail and people take them to the range a lot more people will start pulling the trigger. When I got my .300BLK can and took it to the range two of my friends ordered three suppressors each that week after shooting it.

 

[Ed Ames]

The other thing is that people spent their wad on suppressors before 41F finalized in July last year so that creates a bit of a slump, ...

Yep. I personally don't think the HPA is to blame at all. I put the "slump" entirely on 41F. I bought six suppressors when it became clear that 41P would become 41F. I didn't know the HPA would exist at that point. I bought to have coverage in case I was never able to buy another.

I think it would be crazy for me to buy another suppressor right now. Photos, fingerprints, 9 month wait, $200 tax, etc. for what? A decibel or two, an ounce here or there? It just isn't worth it for me. If HPA passes I will go back into the market but it isn't that I'm holding off in hopes that HPA will pass, it's that the current regulatory burden is high enough that I'm out unless it changes.

 

[FLNT4EVR]

The Dems are out. The buying panic is over. Less demand= smaller labor force . Plus the fact that they are closing the plant in Illion NY . It ;s too bad to. That entire town depends on that factory .

 

[Girodin]

I also think 41f is more of an issue for the suppressor industry than the possibility of the HPA. I made pre 41f purchases that I likely would have spread out over more time otherwise. I don't really need more stuff now and add to that the massive back log and the anticipation of a super long wait time and it's hard for me to get excited to buy any new suppressors right now. Add to that having to deal with a new process.

However the market is adjusting and prices are coming down and I might well buy another if the prices comes down enough on something I want.

 

[jmr40]

The gun market has been artificially inflated for several years now. The market is simply returning to "Normal". This shouldn't be a surprise really.

 

[Deaf Smith]

Well I'll take a hit in the gun market as long as the economy improves, jobs come back, CCW becomes national, and America's security gets lots better!

Deaf

 

[wally]

Eh, surely we can all acknowledge that firearms purchases were artificially inflated by fear of impending regulation.

Comparing February vs February NICS background checks as a proxy for gun sales from 1999 to present, maybe not. Data here:
http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/13/trump-slump-proved-false-by-strong-background-check-numbers/

2017 was lower than 2016, but higher than 2015.

 

[Steel Horse Rider]

I think the fears being expressed by the press are crocodile tears as they have yet in the past 40 years to be concerned about the health of the firearms business.

 

[stonecutter2]

I thought it interesting that in two separate articles about layoffs a Trump victory is being blamed.

http://www.startribune.com/federal-cartridge-lays-off-110-workers-in-anoka/415518844/

http://wibx950.com/workers-reporting-new-layoffs-at-remington-arms/

Doesn't take a brilliant analyst to figure out that the scaremongering and hype had to die if a Republican was voted into office. The manufacturers and resellers had a great time churning out product and selling it at a huge pace, but in any industry that has to come and go in cycles.

They ramped up production during the Obama scares, and expecting a Hillary win they probably stocked up on product (and sold a lot, too) and then their stockpiles didn't sell as fast when Trump won.

The driving force behind all that demand and ramp up in production was shootings with huge national coverage, causing people to think the AR is going to be banned again, etc. With a Republican Congress and President, that seems pretty unlikely to happen now.

I, for one, am happy about less panic. I can finally go into a shop and get something to shoot for a range trip without stalking the inventory constantly or paying outrageous prices.

 

[ClickClickD'oh]

People also need to remember that several of these companies are laying off employees because they are horrible companies, independent of what industry the happen to be in. Colt has been a terribly run company for decades on should have closed it's doors long ago. Remington just had the absolute failure of the R51, an epic recall due to triggers and is fighting a class action lawsuit. It doesn't matter what the market is doing if you are simply a bad company.

 

[Panzerschwein]

Not sure why anyone didn't expect this climax. With the massive build up from Sandy for the ban of "assault weapons" you had hundreds of companies pop up to make ARs. That and the biggies selling all they could make, .22 shortages, ammo shortages of all kinds, it was nuts.

Now, in 2017, things have changed. Trump is the president and we've a majority Republicans in the legislature. Not surprised this is happening. Lots of laying off and collapses, even vaunted Colt's is set to close. Everybody has most of their guns or too much of that and ammo from the banics and obamanics.

Just like Duck Hill (Gander Mountain) closing. Not good for the industry? I think not. It will change and mould them to drive to make less expensive and interesting guns. To fill niches. Maybe something other than black ARs and 9mm glockazine 1911s?

 

[PabloJ]

I have no remorse for the greedy gun dealers out there, that bought everything they could get "CHEAP" and then drove the prices through the roof for the average, family man buyer. The manufactures are even more to blame for the high prices. Nor do I feel any remorse for the ammo companies, that withheld products, to drive the prices up and are now sitting with mountains of ammo, they can't sell, at the prices they created. Imported ammo is selling far less than any USA made ammo and it's just as good, maybe even better.

The ammo companies did not withhold ammo and shortages were not due to government orders. The shortages were due to many customers buying large amounts due to irrational and unfounded fears.

 

[Sam1911]

The shortages were due to many customers buying large amounts due to irrational and unfounded fears.

Kind of inaccurate to say their fears were either irrational or unfounded. They just didn't come to fruition due to massive hard work and a great deal of good fortune.

There's a big difference between a fear that's unfounded and one that's completely possible but is avoided. If your car is careening down an icy road but you manage to gain traction and not to skid into a tree, your fear of crashing wasn't irrational or unfounded.

The risks were certainly present and the enemy was trying as hard as possible to make them realized. Never forget that!

 

[Ryanxia]

Kind of inaccurate to say their fears were either irrational or unfounded. They just didn't come to fruition due to massive hard work and a great deal of good fortune.

There's a big difference between a fear that's unfounded and one that's completely possible but is avoided. If your car is careening down an icy road but you manage to gain traction and not to skid into a tree, your fear of crashing wasn't irrational or unfounded.

The risks were certainly present and the enemy was trying as hard as possible to make them realized. Never forget that!

Well said.

 

[kcofohio]

Well said.

+1

 

[basicblur]

Just a few thoughts (based on feedback from some industry insiders):
1. Don't be surprised to see the loony left blaming any layoffs on Trump (everything's his fault for those that can't get over the election) AND possibly exaggerate such in an effort to paint the POTUS in a bad light (see, he's causing the loss of working class jobs!).
2. Sales of guns to various groups on the loony left are on the rise, as they think the current POTUS is a dictator and they need to arm up (amazing how the times change)!
3. Sales to those slow to taking their personal safety seriously are on the rise, and are expected to continue.

A few examples:
1. Our local gun shop is (and has been for a while) flooded with women buying guns - it's reported women are currently the fastest growing demographic currently buying.
2. I attended my second U.S. Law Shield seminar last night. I'm currently a member of ACLDN, but have been interested in seeing how these programs are received in our little 'burb.
We had over 60 folks sign up for this seminar (a fair number of women) - a far cry from the 20 that showed up for the first one held a few months ago.

I'm betting folks in our area are reading the news and deciding THEY are going to be the first responders.

We've had a gang problem in our town for a while - things have gotten so bad we've had a task force in place for a number of months - there have been at least 3 sweeps I know of, resulting in numerous charges against around 10 gang members during each bust.

BTW - the joke around town has been that our police chief has finally discovered we have gangs in our town!
I had extensive talks with a gal that served on a Grand Jury for almost 6 months. She said they got an eye opening education on area gangs, even being allowed to interview undercover agents from various agencies and ask any question of them they desired.
She said it irked her to no end to spend that much time on the Grand Jury only to turn on the local news that night and hear our local police chief tell the citizens there were no gangs in our town!

Since one of those busts, I hear much less gunfire in my neck of the woods - some nights it used to sound like the sandbox - I often heard 30 to 40 rounds going off in rapid succession on a number of nights.

 

[PabloJ]

Just a few thoughts (based on feedback from some industry insiders):
1. Don't be surprised to see the loony left blaming any layoffs on Trump (everything's his fault for those that can't get over the election) AND possibly exaggerate such in an effort to paint the POTUS in a bad light (see, he's causing the working class jobs!).

I'm betting folks in our area are reading the news and deciding THEY are going to be the first responders.

We've had a gang problem in our town for a while - things have gotten so bad we've had a task force in place for a number of months - there have been at least 3 sweeps I know of, resulting in numerous charges against around 10 gang members during each bust.

Living in Gangland is tuff wearing wrong colors could get one killed, that is not good at all. Former president Barack Hussain Obama was probably the best gun salesman of all time, therefore, responsible for creating and keeping many jobs in gun and related industries while said people will loose those jobs now.

 

[equin]

Well, I'm doing my part to keep the industry going by buying parts to build my first AR! Have also bought ammo and mags since the election and plan to buy more from time to time.

 

[PabloJ]

The reality is both parties are to blame. The Democrats by trying to coronate "Queen Hillary R. Clinton" eliminating viable choice made Trump victory possible. Sadly it has only been about two months now and already I'm beginning to realize that voting for Trump might have been a huge mistake.

 

[ford8nr]

I find it interesting pre November .22LR was hard to find and $ .10/rd was common price.
Since November I've seen 5000rd case lots for sale as low as $ .05/rd for CCI Blazer.
Where did all this ammo magically appear from ? My GUESS, distributors were holding ammo to keep prices up. With the election results and sale drops they got caught holding the bag.

 

[PabloJ]

I find it interesting pre November .22LR was hard to find and $ .10/rd was common price.
Since November I've seen 5000rd case lots for sale as low as $ .05/rd for CCI Blazer.
Where did all this ammo magically appear from ? My GUESS, distributors were holding ammo to keep prices up. With the election results and sale drops they got caught holding the bag.

It is entirely possible that middlemen held some in reserve, but manufacturers that could sell all they could make at high prices wouldn't. As I said before the shortage was created by panicked buyers who bought all they could see and get.

 

[larryh1108]

I'm beginning to realize that voting for Trump might have been a huge mistake.

Yeah, the alternative looks so much better, huh?