All of this is working at the far right end of the probability curve. (See, e.g.,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law.)
I'm going to make up some numbers, but I think they're directionally correct and will serve to illustrate the dynamic in question:
- 99% of non-criminal, non-LEO civilians will never have actual cause to point a gun at another human being
- 99.9% of civilians will never have actual cause to discharge a gun at another human being (with the mere appearance of a firearm sufficing to scare off the threat the vast majority of the time)
- 99.99% of civilians will never face an assailant who does not flee or give up after the first round is discharged, regardless of the direct effects of that shot
- 99.999% of civilians will never face an assailant willing to fight through the shock and pain of being shot to continue their intended crime
As I said, these numbers aren't exactly right, but they illustrate that any discussion about the effective terminal ballistics of any gun is pivoting on the tiny subset-of-a-subset-of-a-subset-of-a-subset-of-a-subset of cases in which it might matter. The chances that any individual selected at random from the non-criminal, non-LEO population will ever experience any different outcome because they are carrying a .22 lr versus a .44 magnum are pretty tiny.
I mean, my carry guns are in .45 and 10mm... but even a reasonable approximation of the math says it matters to my life expectancy as much as whether I buy a lottery ticket influences my net worth.