Japanese Murder Rates...More complicated than I thought!

[JellyJar]

In the thread I started about the inaccuracies of the FBI's uniform crime index I promised I would start a thread about how inaccurate the Japanese murder statistics may be. In years past, pre internet, I had read somewhere that the Japanese do not include non negligent manslaughter in their murder rates like we do in this country. However, I could not find any info on that even using Google. For that reason I sent off a quick email to Professor Gary Kleck of FSU at Tallahassee Florida asking him if he knew about this. Here is my email and his reply:
_________
Sir

I hope I am not taking up your valuable time. However, I am writing an essay on the reliability of Japanese murder rates. I read sometime long ago in my pre internet days that when the Japanese authorities publish crime statistics for murder that they do not include non-negligent manslaughter the way our FBI does in the UCR.

Can you confirm this for me it it is true?

Thanks
-----------

Dear Mr. _____,
It depends on which sources of Japanese murder data you look. This problem does not apply to the homicide counts compiled via the vital statistics system, which is based on death certificates and follows international rules that say any intentional killing of another person is a homicide (including nonnegligent manslaughters).
Police statistics in Japan are another, far more complicated matter. In some years the real problem is _too many_ crimes counted as murders because the Japanese included attempted murders and conspiracy to murder where no one died. According to David Kopel, who is generally very knowledgeable about crime statistics in foreign nations, Japan does indeed exclude nonnegligent manslaughters, but I cannot independently confirm that.
Thus, if you want to make meaningful comparisons across nations, I recommend that you use the vital statistics-based mortality statistics distributed by the United Nations in their _Demographic Yearbook_. This is published annually (2007 is latest year available), but only some years include mortality breakdowns detailed enough to show separate counts for homicide. I think the 2006 issue is the last one to include detailed death stats\istics. It is available online at <http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/2000_round.htm
______________

I need to do more research into this before I start a new thread. However, what I have found so far is that the Japanese police ignore many murders because there it is not an easy case to solve as there may not be any obvious suspect. ( This from a former Japanese policeman of 30 years experience ). Also, as has been reported in several cases the Japanese police usually or often ( I am not sure how often ) will not report the victims of murder/suicide as murder victims.

I need to find good quality references for the above.

One of the big issues to tackle is whether the source being sited is from the Japanese police or some other source that may be more accurate.

The gist of all this is that if the Japanese murder rate is actually 2 to 3 times higher than is actually reported, as I suspect it probably is, then it would be very hard for gun control advocates to use Japan as proof that gun control laws can reduce or prevent crime. ( Of course there are other reasons that Japan is not a model society for gun control that the rest of us could, or would even want, to emulate )

 

[Shadan7]

I caught this interview on NPR the other day, which you may find of interest: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120237244

In addition to the overall discussion, one particularly interesting fact was brought up by this guy: that while "murders" in Japan are some small number, that is mostly an accounting error due to the way the law works. He said that without a body, there's no official "murder". The Yakuza uses this fact - to the tune of making about 10,000 people a year 'disappear'. Seems that they are so well integrated into the construction industry, that they just put the bodies into the foundations of big buildings on a more or less wholesale basis. No body, no 'murder', and the crime stats for Japan look wonderful.

Huh. I wonder if that can be verified, though this guy has the credentials to be pretty credible just on his own.

Jim D.

 

[Oyeboten]

Similarly with Rendering Plants...or any meat processing business with covert affiliations with Politicians or other Organized Crime, can very easily incorporate 'bodies' into Hot-Dogs, pet-foods, protean-meal, or other fairly basic products.

 

[THE DARK KNIGHT]

Look up Japanese suicide rates

 

[RedLion]

Well, even if it is lower than ours, the fact that a murder rate still exists indicates that there is another underlying problem that also causes people to kill each other.

 

[Ieyasu]

I need to do more research into this before I start a new thread. However, what I have found so far is that the Japanese police ignore many murders because there it is not an easy case to solve as there may not be any obvious suspect. ( This from a former Japanese policeman of 30 years experience ). Also, as has been reported in several cases the Japanese police usually or often ( I am not sure how often ) will not report the victims of murder/suicide as murder victims.

I need to find good quality references for the above.

I'll give you credit for trying to do research before stating the above as fact, because according to what I have read, I believe the above is abject nonsense.

As of 2003, the official police statistic [for homicide] was just 1.1 per 100,000 population. Since about half of that figure consists of attempts (not actual killings), Japan's real homicide rate now ranges between 0.5 and 0.6

Although there are reasons to wonder about the accuracy of official statistics for some crime categories, Japan's homicide figures are considered reliable. Note, however, that this homicide category is separate from "robbery resulting in homicide", which from 1989 to 1995 averaged 37 per year (less than 3% of the annual "homicide" average of 1,254). The main "homicide" category is also separate from "lethal assaults" (where offenders lack the intent to kill), which would add another 5% to 10% to the homicide total.

The above was taken from "The Homicide Drop in Postwar Japan" by David T. Johnson in Homicide Studies, Vol 12, No. 1 (Feb. 2008). (Numerous citations omitted)

As for the claim that murder/suicide victims are reported as suicide victims, which I don't believe, but for arguments sake let's say that is so. The World Health Organization reports 47 total suicides in the 5-14 age bracket (none reported below that age). So even if you include 100% of that figure it doesn't significantly inflate Japan's homicide rate.

So, the bottom line is even if one tries to pad Japanese homicide stats with crimes that are supposedly omitted, their rate is still below 1.0/100K population.

 

[Hugo]

Hmmm. This is interesting and creepy.

Considering the insanely high suicide rate in Japan I have no doubt the Yakuza probably "arranges" quite a few "suicides" by people they don't like. Or a few bribes to the coroner and poisoning becomes heart attack or "natural causes". Throw in the police/government adjusting the books to make their town or prefecture appear safer than what reality is and it's probably 2x or even 3x higher in reality.

Sadly this probably happens in many cities and even countries all over the world. Russia, Peoples Republic of China, North Korea, Burma, Cuba.... to name a few.

 

[fireflyfather]

"As for the claim that murder/suicide victims are reported as suicide victims, which I don't believe, but for arguments sake let's say that is so. The World Health Organization reports 47 total suicides in the 5-14 age bracket (none reported below that age). So even if you include 100% of that figure it doesn't significantly inflate Japan's homicide rate."

I call BS on that statistic. A former student of mine in rural Japan (14 years old or so) committed suicide, and it is a common enough problem in their school system, mostly due to the rampant bullying left almost totally un-checked and intense pressure to pass high school entrance exams, and later, college entrance exams. Most of the suicides, I suspect are labeled "accidental deaths", rather than suicides, as a means of saving public face. While suicide is/was considered honorable back in Bushido days, these days it's looked on more like mental illness, and mental illness in Japan is a HUGE taboo subject. Having said that, I lived in an area of 300,000+ people for 3 years, and to my knowledge there was ONE gun fatality, a Yakuza murder at the local train station. Was perhaps one other gun crime (kidnapping, stolen shotgun), that made the news in my time there.

Bottom line: Their murder rate IS pretty darn low, and violent crime is likewise pretty low (not nonexistent, obviously), but it comes at a hefty price: lack of privacy, lack of personal freedom, onerous social obligations, you name it. And the violent crime they do tend to have is either organized crime or people who went batsh*at crazy and "cut" (their word for "snapped").

Oh, and police almost never get involved in domestic disputes/abuse, so that helps lower the crime rate even more.

 

[JellyJar]

Ieyasu wrote;

Quote:
I need to do more research into this before I start a new thread. However, what I have found so far is that the Japanese police ignore many murders because there it is not an easy case to solve as there may not be any obvious suspect. ( This from a former Japanese policeman of 30 years experience ). Also, as has been reported in several cases the Japanese police usually or often ( I am not sure how often ) will not report the victims of murder/suicide as murder victims.

I need to find good quality references for the above.

I'll give you credit for trying to do research before stating the above as fact, because according to what I have read, I believe the above is abject nonsense.

Like I said I need to do more research but perhaps you should do some yourself before saying that what I wrote was nonsense. I would not have written it if I had not read it somewhere. Now I just need to verify that it is true.



http://www.verumserum.com/?p=1518

 

[JellyJar]

It is not nonsense.

Oops!

 

[Ieyasu]

Based on that link you posted, there is certainly evidence that not all murders are reported. However it is obvious that murder/suicides are certainly not reported as suicides. Or if they are, it's still a negligible percentage of homicides. It also remains to be seen whether the non-reporting of some homicides is enough to more than double the already low rate.

 

[Hanafuda]

I have no inside info that would contribute to your question, but I did live in Japan for two years and can say this with some certainty ... for the average person there really is very little crime to speak of. But its a cultural thing that has nothing to do with whether the japanese own weapons or not. You can park your bicycle or motorcycle, unlocked, for as long as you like anywhere in Tokyo for as long as you like and it will remain undisturbed. I lived in Hiroshima, a city roughly equal to Philly in population, and while there were vending machines right on the street selling beer and liquor, most of the teenagers seemed content to wait until they were 20 to drink. I left a pair of sunglasses behind on the shinkansen ... nice pair of Smiths that cost me a hundred bucks ... and when I told a japanese friend a week later she got on the phone and called up Japan rail. Sure enough, someone had found my shades and turned them in to lost and found. A few days later, I had them back.

Crime does happen there of course. A lot of it. But if you're not living and acting in and amongst the criminal element there, it seemed to me you weren't very likely to be touched by it.

 

[dec41971]

Witnessing a drunken passed out businessman lying on a train platform besides his suitcase and bundled up suit jacket on the brief case in Tokyo probably after missing his last train is pretty sureal. No one touches anything. Imagine how long that suitcase would last in NYC a small city by Tokyo standards. You get the idea.

 

[Madcap_Magician]

A bit unrelated, but I've had cause to e-mail Dr. Kleck about random criminal justice and gun-research work I've done for school in my undergraduate days, and I was always pleasantly surprised at how quickly and in depth he would respond, even though he was under no obligation to help.

 

[Ieyasu]

"As for the claim that murder/suicide victims are reported as suicide victims, which I don't believe, but for arguments sake let's say that is so. The World Health Organization reports 47 total suicides in the 5-14 age bracket (none reported below that age). So even if you include 100% of that figure it doesn't significantly inflate Japan's homicide rate."

I call BS on that statistic

It's not necessarily BS. Suicides among that age bracket are probably, legitimately, very low. The number jumps to 1848 in the next age bracket.

 

[Readyrod]

I've been living in Japan for 12 years, the last 7 in Tokyo. The crime rate here is very low. Women walk around at night in places they never would back home. I forgot my bags on the Yamanote line train once (this is the circle line) and I just waited an hour for the same train to come back, got on and retreived my goods. Wow. The only things people steal regularly are umbrellas and shopping bikes. I was once walking down a street when a group of rowdy drunks came pouring out of a bar. Normally back home I would cross the street but I didn't that time. As I walked through the group one of them jumped in front of me. The fight flight thing kicked in and I was ready to clobber him and make a run for it when he just grinned foolishly and said Herro howr are you. Love the personal safety here.

 

[SSN Vet]

Considering the insanely high suicide rate in Japan

I am CERTAINLY no expert, but my limited experiences (readings on Bushido, history and personal friends of Asian heritage) have lead me to believe that you can't even begin to understand Asian culture unless you "get it" with regard to how incredibly important personal honor is to them.

Modern American culture is clueless wrt. this concept.

 

[rklessdriver]

Bottom line: Their murder rate IS pretty darn low, and violent crime is likewise pretty low (not nonexistent, obviously), but it comes at a hefty price: lack of privacy, lack of personal freedom, onerous social obligations, you name it.

Don't forget that Japan is an almost completely homogeneous society. They almost completely lack the ethnic "diversity" that the liberal thinkers in the US love so much. Since everybody has the same religion, same ethnicity, same general upbringing (and have forever), there is the lack of the societal differences that are at the root of some problems in the US.

You will find that there is the similar lack of violent crime in some European countries with similar homogeneous populations.

There will always be the 1%ers, folks just need a reason to start a fight (in any society). It's harder (but not impossible) to find one when everybody around you looks like you, talks like you, walks like you and lives like you. It's even harder to convience an entire group of those people that they need to join your fight club.

Now take the USA for example. It's pretty damn easy to convince a group of people that another group of people either owns them something or is less a person than they are or is out to get them... Al Sharpton, David Duke, Democrats, Republicans, Fox News, MSNBC.... hell they all make a killing off the profits from stupid people who they have convinced to think that somebody either owns them something, is less a person than they are or is out to get them.

Things ARE complicated and even if one population has little of (X) problem its manifsted somewhere else in (XX) problem. I'd like to add that those in power like it that way. Reguardless of where they are in power they like having (X) or (XX) or (XXX) problem so they can regulate that problem...

In the USA it seems to be pushed more and more as a (gun) problem. Just one more thing for the manulipulators to easily divide different people over and keeping themselves at the forefront of "solving the problem".

If your going down the path that (GUNS) aren't the problem in the USA's murder rate and trying to use Japan as an example - your going down the wrong path to proving that argument IMO. The problem is and always will be human beings themselves. We easily maniplate others, are easily manipulated by others, and always have been/will be. Until we breed that sect out of us we are doomed to continue to fight/kill/rule over others.
Will

 

[fireflyfather]

"It's not necessarily BS. Suicides among that age bracket are probably, legitimately, very low. The number jumps to 1848 in the next age bracket." (Quote tags not working)

I'm not worried about the 5 year olds. The pre-teens, however, are an extremely stressed-out, over-bullied, browbeaten lot. Maybe my experiences don't make a statistical universe, but I'd be willing to bet quite a bit of money that not a few suicides in the 14 year old bracket were never reported as such. The 47 number is less than 1 per prefecture. For perspective, Japan has about half the population of the US. How many 13 and 14 year olds commit suicide in the US? I'd bet it was more than 100 last year. I'd LOVE to be wrong, believe me, but I doubt it.

Oh, and as for leaving your bike laying around; there was a major problem in Maebashi with petty theft of bicycles (and strangely enough, umbrellas). The average person on the street is probably MUCH more honest, and you are MUCH more likely to get your stuff back if you left it lying around, however, the teenage set is just as likely to indulge in stupid vandalism/petty theft as kids anywhere else.

 

[JellyJar]

Here is the last post I will be making here about the murder rate in Japan. It is as I have pointed out a much more complicated matter than is normal for us in this country.

From davidkopel.com

http://www.davekopel.com/2A/LawRev/Japanese_Gun_Control.htm

Part VII second paragraph

One reason that the official Japanese homicide rate is so low is that if a Japanese woman slits her children's throats and then kills herself, police statistics sometimes record it as a family suicide, rather than a sensational murder.

http://www.davekopel.com/2A/Foreign/Japan-Gun-Control-and-People-Control.htm

Crime Control, paragraph 4, please note this was published in 1988.


According to government statistics, Japan has 1.5 homicides per 100,000 citizens each year, and America has 7.9. Actually, the gap between U.S. and Japanese homicide rates is not quite as large as the official statistics indicate. The real Japanese murder rate is about twice the reported rate; unlike the U.S., Japan does not count an attempt to injure, but which accidentally causes death, as a homicide. The F.B.I. also over-counts American murders, by listing the 1,500 - 2,500 legal, self- defense fatal shootings of criminals as illegal homicide.

paragraph 26

Japanese-Americans, who of course have access to firearms, have an even lower violent crime rate than do Japanese in Japan. Likewise, prisoners in jails in Japan and in America prisoners have no guns, but American prisoners commit about a hundred murders annually, and Japanese prisoners none.

paragraph 28

If gun control were really such an important factor in Japan's low crime, it would also be hard to explain why Japan's murder rate is higher than Britain's (a shooter's paradise compared to Japan). Both Switzerland and Israel have many more guns per capita than even America, and require citizens to own or train with pistols and fully automatic rifles. Yet these countries have less murder and violent crime than Japan, and
almost no gun crime.

 

[Ieyasu]

One reason that the official Japanese homicide rate is so low is that if a Japanese woman slits her children's throats and then kills herself, police statistics sometimes record it as a family suicide, rather than a sensational murder.

I've already shown this is BS. If you add-up ALL of the suicides in the age appropriate categories, the impact on the Jpnz homicide rate is negligible. (Whether all suicides are recorded in the context of fireflyfather's post, is a different claim altogether.)

Further even if Kopel's claim were true, which I simply don't believe, there are so few of these incidences these days, that again, it simply doesn't drastically change Jpn's low homicide rate. (Researchers/social workers estimate these types of murder suicides occur roughly 50 per year. So even if ALL were mis-recorded it's negligible [statistically speaking of course]).

According to government statistics, Japan has 1.5 homicides per 100,000 citizens each year, and America has 7.9. Actually, the gap between U.S. and Japanese homicide rates is not quite as large as the official statistics indicate. The real Japanese murder rate is about twice the reported rate; unlike the U.S., Japan does not count an attempt to injure, but which accidentally causes death, as a homicide.

First of all the article you reference is from 1988. Secondly the "real" Jpnz murder rate is not twice the reported rate for the reason Kopel claims. From a previous post, I quoted researchers from far more recent research claiming that attempts to injure resulting in accidental homicides adds no more than between 5 and 10% to the homicide rate as opposed to the doubling claim.

Japanese-Americans, who of course have access to firearms, have an even lower violent crime rate than do Japanese in Japan

That claim is rebutted here: http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/1993/09/japan-00002.php (Yeah, I know who Tim Lambert is. Attack the text , not the author, please)

 

[Ieyasu]

Maybe my experiences don't make a statistical universe, but I'd be willing to bet quite a bit of money that not a few suicides in the 14 year old bracket were never reported as such. The 47 number is less than 1 per prefecture. For perspective, Japan has about half the population of the US. How many 13 and 14 year olds commit suicide in the US? I'd bet it was more than 100 last year. I'd LOVE to be wrong, believe me, but I doubt it.

I think our discussion is off-topic, but mildly interesting nonetheless.

Americans in the 5-14 age range commit suicide at a rate of .7 per 100K population versus .4 for Japan. However the next bracket up, it's 14 in Japan versus 10 for the U.S. In the 50's thru the 70's the U.S. rate for the 5-14 age group ran between .2 and .4... comparable to Japan's, today.

You're right, with such a small number, re-categorizing a few suicides here and there could skew the stats. But then this discussion probably belongs on a suicide prevention forum or some such.

 

[Titan6]

There is no category for "missing persons" in Japan. About 100,000 go missing every year with about 10% of them never being found.

http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/110006950807/en

But this is a foolish comparison anyway. The crime rate is of course much lower in Japan.

But would you really want to live there? If so then, bye. I am perfectly happy with the crime rate in America and will stay right here.

As Arfin says Freedom is not certified Safe.

 

[MachIVshooter]

Well, even if it is lower than ours, the fact that a murder rate still exists indicates that there is another underlying problem that also causes people to kill each other.

To this I will reply with one of my favorite quotes:

"As a species, we're fundamentally insane. Put more than two of us in a room and we start taking sides, plotting to kill each other"

 

[Ieyasu]

There is no category for "missing persons" in Japan. About 100,000 go missing every year with about 10% of them never being found.

This thread is getting downright silly.

900,000 missing in the U.S. according to this link: http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/criminal_mind/forensics/americas_missing/2.html

A world-wide conspiracy is clearly suppressing kidnappings and murders by extra-terrestrials.