Justice officials in "Panic Mode" over failed Gun Program

[ArfinGreebly]

The Process

Logic is a fundamental tool of rational analysis. Many of the logical fallacies are an indication of a failure in the process used to reach a conclusion. It is difficult to go from good data to a good conclusion given a bad process.

Indeed.

The primary trouble with a set of rules that detects "process errors" is that nothing in that realm addresses how to actually analyze data, how to identify domain-specific data defects and how to properly source and weight them.

If you're going for causes and remedies, you have to know how to examine and analyze the data itself, not arguments about the data.

In the world of business troubleshooting, rules-o'-rhetoric play no part.

Data analysis, situation analysis, ideals -vs- departures, and the resulting identification of causes and/or motives (or the "whys" if you prefer) are the meat and potatoes, the foundation of investigative method.


The investigation into the ATF's crimes (or "misdeeds breaching the law" if you prefer) isn't a debating exercise.

It's an exercise in sifting through the data you have, determining what data you don't have, where the conflicts are within the data, identifying time-line inconsistencies, locating and sourcing the falsehoods, and so on.

And doing it in the face of hostile and dishonest witnesses and participants.

Making sense of the data obtained therefrom -- filtered for exposure to the public -- means engaging in some interpolation, but the same data analysis rules apply. You just know that you're working with less data.

Even so, the indicators are pretty clear: there have been crimes and there has been a conspiracy.

The rest is a bug hunt.

 

[publius]

And again we get the classic fallacy, and really the "modus ponens" of paranoia- imagining that you know people's motives.

Specifically in this case, attributing to malice what was likely instead caused by folly.

From the latest oversight committe report, beginning on page 49:

When Special Agent John Dodson and the other ATF whistleblowers first came forward
with allegations that guns were walked across the Mexican border during Operation Fast and
Furious, Canino and Gil refused to believe them. Gil and Canino could not believe that the ATF
would actually utilize a tactic that contravened the training and field experience of every ATF
agent. Gil and Canino, the top two ATF officials in Mexico, could not even conceive that ATF
would employ a strategy of allowing weapons transfers to straw purchasers. As Canino testified:

Q. So at no time did you think [gunwalking] was a deliberate effort or
part of a strategy?

A. No. That was, like I said, in 21 years as an ATF agent, as a guy
who teaches surveillance techniques, as a guy who teaches agents
how to conduct field operations, never in my wildest dreams ever
would I have thought that this was a technique. Never. Ever.
It just, it is inconceivable to me.

...

In fact, Canino – an instructor for field operations and undercover operations for ATF since
1998, and a founding member and teacher of the ATF enhanced undercover training program –
felt so confident that these allegations were false, that he began assuring people that the
allegations had no merit:

Never, it is just, you don't do that. It is not – what these guys did
was basically grab the ATF rule book on trafficking and threw
it out the window. This is indefensible. It is indefensible. The
ATF does not do this. . . . I owe people apologies because when
this first came out, I did not believe it.

As more information came to light, however, Gil and Canino concluded that hundreds and
hundreds of guns had been walked. These guns ended up in at crime scenes in Mexico, about
which Gil and Canino received extensive briefings. Gil and Canino became incensed when they
finally began to learn about the full scope of Operation Fast and Furious and the investigative
techniques involved:

Q. When you first got the impression that this was part of a strategy to
let guns walk into Mexico, what was your reaction to that strategy?

A. I wasn’t convinced that this happened until this past April after all
the allegations were made, and I talked to different people. I was
beyond shocked. Embarrassed. I was angry. I'm still angry.
Because this is not what we do.

* * *

That is, I mean, this is the perfect storm of idiocy. That is the
only way I could put it. This is, I mean, this is inconceivable to
me. This is group think gone awry. You know what General
George Patton says, if we are all thinking alike, then nobody is
thinking. Right? Nobody was thinking here. How could anybody
think, hey, let's follow, I mean there is a guy in this case that
bought over 600 guns. At what point do you think you might want
to pull him aside and say, hey, come here for a second.137

When Canino himself uncovered hard evidence that ATF had allowed the guns to disappear from
their surveillance he understood the whistleblower allegations were true:

Q. Okay, and take us through what happened in April.

A. I was here on a visit to headquarters.

Q. Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms headquarters?

A. Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms headquarters, and I was, I was
looking at a, the management log on this case. And the first two
pages, if I'm not mistaken, there are entries there that
chronicle us walking away on three separate occasions from
stash houses.


Q. And did that sound to you incredible?

A. I stopped reading.

Q. So you only got through two pages of this management log?

A. Yeah.

Q. And then you couldn't read it any longer?

A. Didn't want to.

Q. Because you were so upset?

A. Yes.

Q. And you were upset because walking away from three stash houses
struck you as so outrageous?

A. Walking away from one, walking away from one gun when you
know that that gun is going to be used in a crime when you, I
mean, there is no, there was no gray area here guys. There was
no gray area here. We knew that these guys were trafficking
guns into Mexico. There is no gray area. They weren't
trafficking, [the] guys weren't going out and buying two Larson 22
pistols. These guys were buying 7.62, 223's, .50 caliber rifles,
okay, there was no mistake about this. This is no gray area.138

An ATF instructor said they threw away the entire rule book, did something absolutely indefensible, and that there is no gray area. Trained, educated people committed this folly? At some point, a mistake becomes an unlikely explanation.

 

[2ndAmFan]

Based on the evidence I've seen so far these operations were a blatant attempt by high ranking officials in the federal government to build a strong case for much stricter gun control laws in the US. Federal law enforcement agencies committed crimes in order to prove those crimes were being committed. The fact that hundreds, even thousands of people could be murdered as a result of these operations was either not considered or those at the top of the chain of command figured the deaths were acceptable if the operations produced a political atmosphere in the US suitable for further trampling of the 2nd Amendment. I believe it was the latter.
That's all these operations were: setups to infringe further upon our 2nd Amendment rights. They don't make sense looking at them any other way.
"Hey, let's arm a bunch of violent Mexican/Honduran criminals! After they kill a bunch of people with guns we can prove were straw-purchased in the US we can convince the gullible American public that re-instituting an assault weapons ban, limiting magazine capacities, maybe even outlawing semiautomatic weapons altogether is the only solution!" It's possible they had plans to restrict our 2nd Amendment rights even further.
The operations didn't make sense to some field agents either, and some of them lost their jobs for saying so. Additionally, there may be other operations we don't know about yet. Some of those guns never left the US at all, and have been found at crime scenes here.
All the evidence isn't in, but the punitive actions taken against BATFE field agents who complained to their superiors or blew the whistle, and DOJ's lack of cooperation with Issa and Grassley's investigation speaks volumes.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

Quote:
Insulting all the good men and women who risk their lives doing hard work to keep us safe in federal law enforcement is not high road.

Let me go on record as stating that we support honest, hard working law enforcement officers and their honest, hard working agencies.

Under the current circumstnaces, the real insult to all the good men and women who risk their lives doing hard work to keep us safe in federal law enforcement is to defend the men who got them killed through their illegal actions

And the way to support honest, hard working law enforcement officers and their honest, hard working agencies is to weed out the bad apples and bring justice for the Border Patrolman killed by this illegal conspiracy.

 

[HD Fboy]

Azjms,

Please explain why ATF agents were ordered to stand down and allow 2500 firearms to walk away over approximately a 2 year period?

Consider this:
It lasted too long with too many weapons to have been a mistake ATF management knew, and the testimony says DOJ and WH personnel knew yet it continued.
It only ended when a federal agent was killed. Many Mexicans and Mexican LEO's had died from F&F gun by last December. After Mexican deaths why didn't it end?
Only after whistleblowers brought the events to the public did we find out what had occurred.

I only see 2 alternatives here (individually or both together):
1. Create a crisis to justify new restrictive firearms legislation.
2. Create instability in the Mexican government and encourage Mexico to become a full fledged Narco State.

Let's not forget the current Administration has de criminalized illegal aliens and during the last 2.5 years allowed an open border in areas of AZ and TX. Even posting signs that certain areas that they are " drug trafficker zones"

In a courtroom stupidity is not a defense.

 

[armoredman]

ATFE and DOJ are feeling the heat...but what actual actions can be taken against them? At the conclusion of these hearings, what can actually be done?

 

[2ndAmFan]

My take on these operations: It's obvious these operations were criminal conspiracies by various agencies of the US federal government, chiefly the BATFE, but ultimately under the direction of the Department of Justice. Just who is going to hold those responsible accountable for these criminal acts?

Richard Nixon was forced to resign the presidency over the Watergate affair and cover-up. That was child's play compared to what happened in these operations, and the evidence at this point shows the White House knew of the operations and did nothing to stop them. We don't know right now if the President was personally involved but it appears very unlikely that he was unaware of these operations.

I seriously doubt anyone who truly bears responsibility for these fiascoes, in spite of the murders already committed and those which will be committed, will be held accountable.

Those responsible are instead attempting to infringe what's left of our 2nd Amendment rights, as if the crimes they ordered and committed were caused by honest, law-abiding American gun owners.

During OFF and other illegal operations Homeland Security put out a memo claiming, among other things, that any US citizen who spoke out in support of the Constitution, owned guns, etc. is a potential domestic terrorist. Unbelievable! Patriotic Americans who believe in the Constitution are potential domestic terrorists. In this upside down world created in Washington DC everything I grew up believing makes me a potential criminal, while powerful federal officials who have ordered and committed actual crimes probably won't ever be prosecuted!

This is a continuing criminal enterprise which was created and operated by the federal government in direct violation of multiple US laws, designed to give those in control of the operations excuses to further infringe our already weakened 2nd Amendment rights. Those who ordered these operations should be under indictment already.

I predict they won't be indicted, and even if just subpoenaed I suspect most of them will refuse to testify. Who will compel them to testify? They can claim they can't testify for national security reasons and that will be the end of it. They will behave as though they are above the law. They have already been doing that and there is no reason to believe they will stop simply because of an investigation. In fact, the investigation will make them behave even more like they are above the law, and they'll get away with it. That's my prediction based on the evidence that's come to light so far.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Mike1234567]

^^^ Great post and agreed... but what's new?

Politics isn't allowed so-o-o-...

 

[2ndAmFan]

Thanks. Nothing's new at all. I just felt like writing all that and posting it so I did. I wish things were different. I hope they improve, but I'm not too optimistic.

 

[Neverwinter]

Indeed.

The primary trouble with a set of rules that detects "process errors" is that nothing in that realm addresses how to actually analyze data, how to identify domain-specific data defects and how to properly source and weight them.

That is a manufactured issue stemming from improper usage of a tool. The incapability of a tool to perform something outside of its purpose doesn't mean that its use in the primary purpose is invalid. A set of rules that detects process errors allows you to discover if you are doing something wrong, not that you are doing something right(proscriptive instead of prescriptive). It allows you to know that a process is unreliable.

And there were several things in the post that I replied to that contained logical errors, notably "correlation equals causation".

During OFF and other illegal operations Homeland Security put out a memo claiming, among other things, that any US citizen who spoke out in support of the Constitution, owned guns, etc. is a potential domestic terrorist. Unbelievable! Patriotic Americans who believe in the Constitution are potential domestic terrorists.

I guess that a certain reading of the leaked report might allow some people to come to that conclusion.

 

[Deanimator]

I guess that a certain reading of the leaked report might allow some people to come to that conclusion.

I guess that a certain reading of "Mein Kampf" might allow some people to come to the conclusion that Hitler had an unfavorable view of the Jews.

 

[Neverwinter]

During OFF and other illegal operations Homeland Security put out a memo claiming, among other things, that any US citizen who spoke out in support of the Constitution, owned guns, etc. is a potential domestic terrorist.

Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and
adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups),
and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or
rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a
single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.

Open source reporting of wartime ammunition shortages has likely spurred
rightwing extremists—as well as law-abiding Americans—to make bulk purchases of
ammunition. These shortages have increased the cost of ammunition, further
exacerbating rightwing extremist paranoia and leading to further stockpiling activity.
Both rightwing extremists and law-abiding citizens share a belief that rising crime rates
attributed to a slumping economy make the purchase of legitimate firearms a wise move
at this time.

Because debates over constitutional rights are intense, and
parties on all sides have deeply held, sincere, but vastly divergent beliefs, violent
extremists may attempt to co-opt the debate and use the controversy as a radicalization
tool.

The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

What the lady says is projection -- she accuses others of being what she is.

 

[LKB3rd]

Those responsible are instead attempting to infringe what's left of our 2nd Amendment rights, as if the crimes they ordered and committed were caused by honest, law-abiding American gun owners.

This is what is most alarming to me. They seem to be attempting to jedi mind trick the country by pretending the operation wasn't exposed.
I thought of a protest slogan. "Close the ATF loophole." They usually call it the gun show loophole, but maybe we can force a rename of this loophole.

 

[Deanimator]

I thought of a protest slogan. "Close the ATF loophole." They usually call it the gun show loophole, but maybe we can force a rename of this loophole.

I think that's an EXCELLENT idea.

The FIRST thing we need to do is to TOTALLY discredit the BATFE, and primarily with it's own sordid history, including their OFFICIAL training video on how to lie under oath.

The BATFE is irretrievably corrupt, and we shouldn't spare ANY effort to let people know about it.

Back in the '90s, the Canadian scifi show "Lexx" portrayed the BATF(E) as a murderous gang of bumbling incompetents. The truth of course turned out to be FAR stranger than fiction. What was once over the top parody, has become an unattainable ideal of reform.

We may not be able to get rid of the BATFE, but we can largely render it an impotent, pathetic joke.

 

[Neverwinter]

What the lady says is projection -- she accuses others of being what she is.

Please elaborate as to what you believe 2ndAmFan to be projecting, and which part of the post demonstrates that projection.

 

[7.62 Nato]

I thought of a protest slogan. "Close the ATF loophole." They usually call it the gun show loophole, but maybe we can force a rename of this loophole.

I like that ! Care if I repost it on other boards ?

 

[LKB3rd]

No, go ahead and use it all you want.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

Please elaborate as to what you believe 2ndAmFan to be projecting, and which part of the post demonstrates that projection

You need to go back and re-read the thread. 2ndAmFan posted quotes. The "lady" in question is the source of those quotes.

Quote:
Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and
adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups),
and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or
rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a
single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.

Quote:
Open source reporting of wartime ammunition shortages has likely spurred
rightwing extremists—as well as law-abiding Americans—to make bulk purchases of
ammunition. These shortages have increased the cost of ammunition, further
exacerbating rightwing extremist paranoia and leading to further stockpiling activity.
Both rightwing extremists and law-abiding citizens share a belief that rising crime rates
attributed to a slumping economy make the purchase of legitimate firearms a wise move
at this time.

Quote:
Because debates over constitutional rights are intense, and
parties on all sides have deeply held, sincere, but vastly divergent beliefs, violent
extremists may attempt to co-opt the debate and use the controversy as a radicalization
tool.

 

[Neverwinter]

You need to go back and re-read the thread. 2ndAmFan posted quotes. The "lady" in question is the source of those quotes.

2ndAmFan did not post those quotes. I posted those quotes in response to his objection to the report in this post. The "lady" in question is 2ndAmFan, and the "protest" is the objection not held up by the text of the report.

If it wasn't clear from the text I quoted, the report does not consider people who own a gun or argue about the Constitution as a potential domestic terrorist. The report only supports those people as being a potential domestic terrorist in the meaningless sense that a citizen could theoretically be a terrorist.

 

[2ndAmFan]

I don't consider any part of a report on "potential domestic terrorists" put out by Homeland Security to be meaningless, regardless of how one chooses to interpret it. And I'm a man, not a woman.

 

[JERRY]

all this means nothing until arrests and formal charges are brought against the highest ranking officials whom allowed this to happen.

 

[Sky]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Op6xtpDXKFU&feature=player_embedded

Like Alex Jones or think he is a buffoon (tinhat cheerleader) he made some good points with the lib (interrupts) interviewer who just could not get his point about Fast and Furious, semi-autos and Batf..Normal...... When he showed documents (Fed, State, and local news stories) the subject needed to proceed in a different direction or go back and say "2 guns are not so bad".....Wish we had more statesmen with the same media outlet and with a better credibility image than Mr. Jones. Still, IMO, the video brings up some good points.

 

[Davek1977]

Alex Jones is NOT the spokesman we need for this or any cause. His paranoid ramblings, while often somewhat loosely based on fact, help no one, IMO. His credibility left a long time ago....we don't need someone who believes in an alien Illuminati secretly running our government speaking on our behalf if we want to be seen as even remotely credible. People like AJ do us a disservice, because they have previously destroyed any credibility with the American public. A good soundbyte from a horrible spokesman isn't furthering our cause, and association with the likes of Jones is not a positve step for the gun rights movement.

 

[Mike1234567]

I like Alex Jones. I guess I must be a nut-case...