Most Likely SHTF Scenario and Your Payload?

[gezzer]

Staying where I am now with what we have now. Malone Labe

 

[silent knight]

Sucks to be in California

Unfortunately, many of those Korean swap meet owners were disarmed by the LAPD, one of them is a friends dad, he owned a spot at one of the swapmeets, he got to fire a few rounds at some looters that held back after noticing the guys on the rooftop.

In my case, i think i am safer at home where i can protect myself and my loved ones. I cant rely on the LAPD, the LAPD can't do it all, no matter what they say. They dont have the man power to hold Los Angeles down, if they did.. Reginald Dennie wouldnt have had his ass beaten near death at Normandie by those Crips for that long. It takes the LAPD 15-45 minutes to get to a scene (from my experience), by then the thugs, burglars or who ever will be gone. I just hope that "Stand Your Ground" will one day plant its seed here in California. They say to leave the guns and protection from the Cops, with all do respect, LAPD are the most trigger happy police force i have ever scene and the majority of Angelinos are feel more afraid than safe around the LAPD, and that goes for all the race, whites, blacks & browns.

I'd stay home, lock the doors, arm my wife and wait till everything is over. I have stored two weeks of supplies food, water, diapers & ammo. If it's a natural dis and i need to leave, i'd pack all that in my truck and secure my weapons so that the LAPD wont harrass me. Lucky for a lot of you guys, you can conceal and stand your ground. Im not sure if that law passed or if it was ever brought to the table about disarming law abiding citizens during natural disasters.

 

[Glock_10mm]

War like end all Staying at home scenario

12ga (870 Marine Magnum with folding stock)
.308 (HKG3 or DPMS LR)
9mm (Glock G19)
.22lr (Walther P22)

In an end all scenario, this would be my choice as all the calibers are readily available, easy to reload, and cover just about any situation.

OR

War like end allon the run

.45/.454 (ruger revolver)
.22lr rifle

If I'm going to be packing light for alot of running, a good .22LR rifle and a ruger 454/45 revolver would be my choice. That way I could carry tons of ammo for hunting/survival, and take about anything I come accross.

OR

Stranded in a forbidden place (jungle/woods - no human threats / not end all)

12ga O/U
.357 revolver (Medusa 47 perhaps)

If the scenario is not a war like (ie stranded in the woods), I'd choose an all in one type gun (ie currently building a 12ga O/U, with .357max upper 18" barrel insert, that way I have 12ga + .357mag/max and .38spl...all around gun!). The revolver would have ammo changebility with the rifle insert.

Just depends on the scenario. I guess I';ll just choose when the S*** Hits The Fan...gonna happen sooner or later.

 

[crowbardog]

SHTF scenario: THE RECONQUISTA (yeah, RIGHT! )

1) Rifle - I guess my SKS, though I'd feel comfortable with several others that I own (like a Mini-14 or my Savage 10FP in .308)
2) Shotgun - Mossberg 500 with long and short barrel + choke tubes
3) CZ 97B
4) Extra rifle - bolt action remingtion 582 (I love love love this little .22LR, my first gun when I joined the cub scouts.
I thought about posting my BFR in .500 mag as my preferred pistol, but I have a feeling some people here would've taken me seriously

ETA: Zen21Tao!!

Where can a guy pick up a tactical wheelbarrow such as yours?!

I can see myself now:
Sitting in the tactical wheelbarrow, peering over the hills of east country San Diego through my camo'd binocs, I notice the BGs coming to 'take' my house and the well that it sits near. They should know that I DON'T SHARE!

I kick myself off, and begin rolling down the side of the hill. Once they are in range (for me that's about 2000 yrds; it would be more like 1 1/2 miles if I wasn't in a moving, bouncing wheelbarrow) I stand up and open fire. Get 'em all, never miss... all thanks to the tactikewl wheelbarrow!

Can I buy yours? I'll trade ya for my '86 Yot'er Land Cruiser 4X4.

 

[azredhawk44]

My SHTF gear:

M1A Scout 18" .308
Springfield XD9 4" 9mm
Ruger sp101 3" .357

I'd probably bring a Winchester94 in .30-30 and my Glock21 in 45acp as backup weapons in case any of the others failed or I made a friend or two when I was settled. I've never gotten into shotties, so I'll abstain from listing one that I don't own and don't know the manual of arms to.

About 2 weeks of roughin' it food that can be thrown in the back of my big blue Dodge pickup along with lanterns, sleeping bags, tents, cooking gear, several hundred rounds of ammo, construction tools, rope and spare clothing. I have fuel for lanterns and stoves to last 2-3 weeks with care. I try to keep my pickup well above 1/2 a tank at any given time, which gives me a 200 mile emergency radius if no fuel is available and the roads are clear.

 

[sm]

hso - wake up!

For Me the most likely Serious Situation I personally face is:

Older returning student attending college across the river.

Since I am familar with the limited routes to get back and forth over that river and HAVE been in Serious Situations due to Ice Storms, Snow, or Tornados...

I have had to stay put, because the LEO agencies said nobody needed to be out to cross the routes or only emergency personal allowed to be on them bridges.

I have had to turn around and head back to where I started from - and have a plan and place to stay.

I have spent 3.5 hours stuck on that bridge when a really bad wreck, coupled with a Tornado , and sleet - made pretzles out of 18 wheelers and other vehicles. Took me me 3 hours to make 500 yds to an exit. Seems a wreck behind me prevented me / others from going back.

It was 18* F with a wind chill of something really cold on that bridge. Army Blanket, water, and cans of tunafish and vienna sausage...etc., were the better things of my "payload".

Folks thought I was nuts for having a dozen cans of vienna sausage in my vehicle in a ice chest...there was a Couple from out of town with 2 kids that thought I had hung the moon giving fussy , scared, kids vienna sausage.

We had a Doctor, a nurse, a mechanic and other folks keeping tabs and working like a team up there.

Gas can with means to siphon gas handy, engines were shut off, and then back on for a bit - still needed to idle to keep folks warm, especially the elderly and kids. Nobody ran out of gas - we made sure of that.

Doctor, a nurse, mechanic and myself had extra space blankets, amazing how much warmth these things provide inside a vehicle breaking the wind...yep, just those little bitty foil looking ones....

Umm , yeah, I was CCW-ing, not the tool(s) I needed that night, nor has it been for other Serious Situations.

 

[The_Shootist]

Hurricane!

Like ....in about a week!

My travelling stash for bug-out: * WASR10 AK-47 + 7 30rd Bulgy mags stuffed
with Wolf Military Classic
* Glock 19 and 6 standard caps (WW 115gr
JHP's)
* SP 101 and 4 speedloaders and 2 speed
strips of the FBI load

Last year for Rita it was just the Glock and the Ruger as I wanted guns that had "universal ammo" (ie 9mm/.357/.38 spl) and ALWAYS went BANG.

I picked up the AK after thinking more about Katrina

 

[taliv]

if you're talking risk management, you not only have to take into account the relative odds of a given scenario, but how soon it is likely to occur.

For example, in the next 10 years, the odds of a major SHTF as a result of a tyrannical gov't are maybe 5%. over the next 300 years it's a relative certainty (99.9%+). In other words, it's really just a question of when. The same is true for natural disasters, which is why we have phrases like "a 100 year flood".

I think the economy is more resilient than most people give it credit for, and there aren't many natural disasters around middle TN, and for good or ill, I think the gov't has some life left. So, I'd say the FIRST shtf I'm likely to see will be biological.

Shooting viri and bacteria might be entertaining, but probably won't be terribly effective. My payload's a shelf full of good books and a couple bottles of Jack.

 

[mjb]

I am a strong believer in having a food storage--mre's,water, etc.
As for guns:
Colt Delta Elite 10mm
Colt Police Positive Special .38 Spl
German K98 8mm Mauser
Winchester 1300 pump 12 guage

 

[Doug S]

I know this doesn't address the original question, but I've been working on an emergency pack over the last couple of weeks. Got around to taking a picture of the pack with my new Yugo, and this thread seems like a good excuse to post it. I accidently stuck a 40 round mag in the Yugo for the picture.

 

[slicknickns]

I'll be 18 in July '07. I'll buy a rifle or shotgun around then. If the shiit hits in the fan, most likely massive earthquake, property defense.
I plan on buying only one of the following:
Yugo sks
Ruger mini14/30, If i have the cash
remington 870
mossberg 500/590
saiga 7.62x39 civilian, rifle stock ak style rifle
surplus bolt-action, mosin, mauser

I'll also for sure buy a henry survial rifle, the one that all fits in the stock, to keep in the car. But until then i'm thinking about any of those rifles.

Oh and my dream kit would be:
Glock 17 on my hip.
Walther PPk-.380 tucked away somewhere on body
some sort of collapsable stock mini-14 or AKM
A Glock 31 in the car, along with a Springfield Armoury 1911A1
A Yugo Sks

 

[rangerruck]

i would guess, if going biblical here, the economy thing. Elsewise, huge natural disaster, like Katrina. then i go with my ak variants. like the line from Jackie Brown says, "AK 47, when you absolutely , positively have to kill every M...f((*&(er in the room...".762 russian, and 223.

 

[dfaugh]

Most likely SHTF scenario is a biological catastrophe, whether initiated by "evil forces" or a pandemic like the bird flu. (I have a degree in molecular biology, and biologicals REALLY scare me, becasue they are easy to make and distribute). This would cause the collapse of the economy, as well as all kinds of other nasty things.

NOT buggin' out, I'm far better off to stay in place. (which means, realistically I could have as many guns and ammo as I'd need). My house is in a highly defensible position, w/ 360 degree field of fire, plus multiple trained dogs. But for the purposes of the exercise:

1) Scoped High Powered Rifle (least likely to be needed, but good to have)
2) 12 gauge pump gun, various loads from bridshot for hunting, to 00 buck for defence
3) SKS-M (takes AK mags, hvae enough mags to load 240 rounds)
4) Marlin Model 60 .22 for subsistance hunting (I have 10 acres, as do most neighbors. In fact I was just watching a mamma turkey w/ babies in my back yard. Deer walk up to with 50 feet of the house routinely.)

 

[amprecon]

The SHTF I envision is not so much a lack of governmental control over a rioting populace. As I believe in Christianity, having spent my entire youth in Christian schools, I have learned alot about what the Bible says about our future. It talks about when the U.S. (identified in other terms) aligns itself with the "Red Armies" against Israel it will mark the beginning of the end of times.

I can visualize this happening considering the current conditions between Lebanon, Israel and Iran today. Israel's existance is a thorn in the side of all muslims and they exist right in their face. If the world decides that the best thing to ensure final and total peace in that region of the world and an end to terrorism world-wide would be the end of Israel, then we would be witness to a catastrophic event. If Iran, who liberally states that they desire the end of Israel, decides to use their new found nuclear technology to attack Israel and Israel attacks in a way not acceptable to the rest of the world, the world will turn against her and want her destruction. Don't think Israel doesn't know what the Bible says about her role in this prediction and may explain her peculiar actions regarding the current conflict.

The Roman Catholic Church plays an integral part of this end being the catalyst for political changes around the world resulting in the labeling and catagorizing of "trouble-makers" in all societies. These "trouble-makers", those who refuse to accept their "rules" (direct or indirect) would be labeled, identified and gathered up. This will be performed by their followers, those that have accepted their "control", those that live among us will turn them in.

So, those that refuse to accept their rule will hopefully recognize the signs and go immediately into hiding.
When a majority of society is brainwashed to believe a certain group of people is bad and not beneficial to their well-being or "perfect" society, they will freely and willingly go after those "trouble-makers" themselves to "protect their children" and their society.

Don't think it can't happen to us, this very thing did happen only 60 some years ago in Europe and more recently in Yugoslavia.
So, my SHTF scenario will be to hopefully recognize what's happening and go into hiding. If I happen to be a "trouble-maker" per their definitions. To get into a fight with my entire former community would be suicide, to get captured and accused with no chance of a fair trial would be suicide.

So, even as a Christian, I have no problem protecting my life or the lives of my family and will fight to the bitter end even if I see no hope, I would make them regret ever having decided to apprehend or attack me or my family. They would have to really consider their loyalties and adherence to their new convictions.

I own several firearms and would most definitely take all of them, probably the most useful would be my AK-47 and my .45acp, and though I may be considered evil in the minds of those that hunt me down, I will know that I would be truly righteous in the eyes of God and would go down with a peaceful conscience.

 

[roscoe]

Whoa! I am not really sure I buy the Armageddon scenarios. We have, actually been through some tough times in this country before, and rarely have we needed to start shooting people.

Since I bet most any longer term scenario will be economic, I have my debts payed off so the bank can't come and repossess the family farm. That is probably the most important preparation I can think of. Lots of people lost everything in 1929-35 because of lack of MONEY. No one needed military rifles, they needed to be economically sound. When economies start collapsing, you better have an ECONOMIC back-up plan unless you want to start roaming the desert in your stripped 4wd looking for people to prey on.

Not very romantic, and not about guns, but there it is.

 

[Davo]

Rising debt and lowered oil supplies. Think great depression but worse because people are less self sufficient and more ignorant to survival. This would probably first be seen in inner cities as rioting and looting, and move out towards the rest of the country.

Primary weapon-yugo SKS
Secondary-Makarov pistol
Hunting/presicion-Scoped K31
Practice/small game-My 22's
Home defense-all of the above plus a Win 1300 defender in 12guage.

I have others, but these are my "first up".
Just as important though is food, water, medical supplies, transportation (including the human powered kind), knowledge of your surroundings, camping/hunting/farming skills and supplies, and most important a good plan, with several backups that are well thought out.

 

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

You are not Rambo. Real life isn't a Hollywood action movie. Red Dawn and Mad Max make for some great fiction, but don't lose sight of the fact that these are in fact fiction. Plan for reality.

Most likely scenario is short term localized civil disorder, a la Katrina or LA riots. Most likely causes are natural disaster, man-made disaster (e.g. chemical spill), terrorist attack, or race riots.

The obvious solution is to not be in that particular locality that's exploding at the moment. Leave before disaster strikes if you can. If you can't, leave as quickly thereafter as you can. There's no sense putting yourself through a survival situation when you can drive away from it. Watch it on CNN from a hotel room in another state. Don't risk your life over your home and your possessions. Insurance will cover the damage, and those few irreplaceable sentimental items can be tossed into the back of the car before you leave.

A reliable vehicle, a road atlas, a cell phone, and a credit card would be the most valuable tools for staying out of trouble. A few spare changes of clothes, vital medications, contact info, spare keys, some cash, a bit of food and water and other things of this sort should be packed in a bag or a box for quick and easy retrieval. Your CCW piece will be on your hip when the disaster strikes, so there's no urgent need to keep a spare gun around just for disaster prep. If your CCW isn't enough gun, grab your home defense long gun from the bedroom. Write up a list of other items to grab before leaving, things like your family photo album and your home defense gun and whatever else you wouldn't want to forget. Store the list with your bag of spare clothes, etc.

 

[Rem700SD]

I'm going to try to keep it simple.

Most likely SHTF scenario is a major Hurricane or plant explosion in Houston area for me. For global SHTF or class 4 zombie attack is to have enough ammo and fuel to make it to East Texas, where I have family and supplies(on the hoof, no less) I'm going to have to figure how to make it out after experiencing the dry run of Rita. I'm already stocking the extra fuel.

SHTF rifle as of right now is an FAL and a Glock 19.

Dan

 

[Rem700SD]

I'd agree with Thompson Hunter except on these 2 points:

a cell phone, and a credit card

During Rita evac these two items were next to useless, as all circuits were busy. keep some spare cash and fuel cans(full). for fast evacs.

Dan

 

[redneckdan]

my most like SHTF senario is getting stranded a long ways from town this winter on my sled. I carry my 1911 on me, a survival kit, tools and some basic spare parts.

 

[ArfinGreebly]

All the good ones are taken.

So, since all the most likely scenarios have been covered, let me go all Jericho: bad guys have imported nukes and set them off in a dozen large cities.

If we stay where we are, the most likely immediate concern is being overrun by refugees from places like the Bay Area or Sacramento. We're a small enough town that we're an unlikely target, and we're shielded by distance and mountains from any direct impact of a coordinated strike.

Under those circumstances, our best shot is to stay where we are and team up with the neighbors to guard our community. We, in our neighborhood, pretty much all know one another, and it's all single family homes, primarily brick construction.

A number of us have stocks of food, water, medical, lanterns, firewood, and all that jazz. Some of our neighbors are LDS and it's second nature for them. We had to study for it, cuz we spent too many years in denial. We are equipped for cooking under primitive conditions, have dried foods, canned goods, and all that.

The only thing that really concerns me is hostilities. Most of our neighbors are gentle folk, who are armed inadequately or not at all. I know of a couple of households that can be brought on line and up to speed pretty quickly with loaners from me, but I don't know who else would cowboy up when the crappenflinger flung.

Arms? Well, since I'm at home, I get to keep whatever I don't lend to the new improved Neighborhood Watch.

I reckon I'd keep the CX4-9mm around the house, along with the XD40 on the belt. For outside guard duty I'd probably use the Kel-tec rifle (SU-16A), as it's light, stows spare ammo, decent rate of fire.

If it became necessary to go shopping in the woods, the Marlin .357 in hand with S&W 586 on belt would get groceries. If a bigger hunting party went out for a more community-oriented hunt, then the .30-30 in hand with 586/.357 on belt.

If things degenerated to the point of having to pack up and head out, then everything in the safe goes in the Jeep. Wife's PT111 stays with her, and XD40 with me, with CX4 close at hand. Grab earmarked mobile supplies and toss in Jeep, too, along with sleeping bags and camp gear plus navigation needs.

If it degenerated to the point of having to choose only a few weapons, the SU-16 folds and goes in my pack, along with the Smith; the XD goes on the belt and the .357 cabine goes in my hand. Wife carries her 9mm pistol and the CX4. Ruger MkII goes in her pack. Ammo is rationed and distributed according to our ability to hump it around.

By this time, it is hoped we are not on our own, but traveling with friends. We have a select group of people on whom we can depend. Not all of them are close to us, but nobody is farther away than 15 miles.

If we find ourselves alone, then we learn fast or die.

I haven't camped out since I was 17. She hasn't camped out since she was 18. We both grew up in mountains and foothills. I'm sure we could figure it out.

Incidentally, given that the focus was gun selection, I didn't go into any depth on knives, but it should be said that under all circumstances you will use a knife much more than you will a gun. I have a wide selection, including hatchets, axes, and machetes. Even a knife designed to function as a spear head.

I'm sure most of us have a few or even several quality edged tools. Those who don't: you might want to invest some time and acquaint yourself with what's out there and what suits you best.

In some later episode I'll consider what it would be like if we had to run, and review the how and where. Right now, a running scenario pretty much sucks for us.

I'll work on it.

 

[arthurcw]

The Roman Catholic Church plays an integral part of this end being the catalyst for political changes around the world resulting in the labeling and catagorizing of "trouble-makers" in all societies.

Wow… As a Roman Catholic, I WISH we were half that organized. I recall a conversation between a Non-Denominational Christian and a Catholic Priest. The NDC says, “I will not join an organized religion.” RC Priest responds, “You should really look into Catholicism then.”

Back to topic: Hurricane is the most likely here in the “Free City”. The BOB has much more than firearms but for relevance to THR if I have to Bug Out, I’ll be taking my CCW and a Win Mod 94.

If I’m buggin’ IN, then it will be my entire arsenal if needed (a la Katrina).

I have thought about switching my long arm to my SKS but I love my Win more than my SKS so it’s coming with me.

I would probably take about 30 to 50 rounds for the thudy-thudy.

I'd agree with Thompson Hunter except on these 2 points:

a cell phone, and a credit card

During Rita evac these two items were next to useless, as all circuits were busy. keep some spare cash and fuel cans(full). for fast evacs.

Yep… the Credit Card was a bust. I did seem to always have a Cell though.

FYI: A Sam’s Card was a nice thing to have. In some areas of town, that was the ONLY gas to be had.

 

[energyzippo]

first let me say i guess i am that type second forgive my spelling

here goes ---

7 terrorists from iran sneek in to this country with a plan of attack then nukes go off around the country hitting 7 magor citys .. all 7 are wiped out includeing dc our government is left scattered at best with no command in place ......are transportation infrastructior as well as food and watter supplys are a total loss most motorized vehicials wont run becouse of a emp strike ......those who didnt die from the first strikes and or the fallout are now dieing from eating contaminated food and or watter or els starveing to death ..........disease begin to show up everywhere and with out the meens to controll it kills many of the still liveing .........people begin to kill and rob those who they can find and are unable to fully protect themselves -----in the meen time china sees the opertunity to take controll of what ever goverment we have left and thus takes controll of are country in the name of the un ......................


would i bug out??? no !

step 1 --- after fallout subsides i set up my permiter security and set up my decontaminaton area for my security force

step 2 -------after fallout settle in for a long drawn out battle with the situation -the elaments -- and whoever feels it necessay to tresspass in to my controlled area

but for this excersize in a bug out situation

i would take the following

sks with 100 rounds
45 acp 100 rounds
dose meters
atv with cart
and standered bugout items

the wife would carry
7mm mag 50 rounds
45 acp 100 rounds
the rest is standered

both kids would carry
semi auto .22
with a back up 25 auto
the rest is standered equ

and all this is done to protect us from those who dont care to prepair them selves

 

[erict]

SHTF isn't too likely here. I do live near Ft. Campbell though and if I see a mushroom cloud I guess I'm screwed a short time later.

For any other reason (social chaos, economic collapse, zombies, etc.) I would stay at home and bug in. I live in a VERY rural farm area and only have 10 or so neighbors that live within a few miles of me and they are all great folks with alot of guns . Everyone at our Church watches out for each others homes.

Hopefully we could get out on backroads and band together to gather resources and protect each other from outside "visitors". I have a wood stove in the basement and a pile of firewood that's literally 150" long and 5' high behind my house so heat would not be an issue. I have enough food and water for a few weeks and most folks here are on well water with generator back up if we need more.

If we need more food I have deer in my yard on a daily basis so I suppose they'd start dissappearing pretty fast .

As far as guns go, I have a wide variety and my neighbors do as well. I have 4 AR 15's and about 3K of ammo at home. I also have a .270 and 30-06 with several hundred rounds and a Savage 10fp in .223 all for the long range work.

If anyone got close enough to my home I'd use one of my shotguns (Rem 870 or Mossy 500) and if they were really close I'd use my Glock 27 or Sig 239.

Here is a pic of my front yard, good luck to anyone wanting to get too close without getting our attention .

 

[Srigs]

Economic.

Rifle: HK 91
Shotgun: Mossberg 500
Pistol: S&W 6946
Alt: Rurger 10/22