Most Likely SHTF Scenario and Your Payload?
- Thread starter HMMurdock
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rkh
member
Easy.
The most likely disaster scenarios involve social disorder in the wake of a natural disaster or pandemic flu. The epidemiologists I recently had the pleasure to work with are taking the flu threat very seriously.
10% chance of a nasty mutation in the next 2 years was the figure I heard.
In either situation, I'm waiting out the chaos at home comfortably seated on my pile of ammo cans.
The most likely disaster scenarios involve social disorder in the wake of a natural disaster or pandemic flu. The epidemiologists I recently had the pleasure to work with are taking the flu threat very seriously.
10% chance of a nasty mutation in the next 2 years was the figure I heard.
In either situation, I'm waiting out the chaos at home comfortably seated on my pile of ammo cans.
Last edited:
AStone
Member
Hey John, I agree.
Actually, that's related to my point.
My point was:
1) Don't rely on the weather forecast. They can be wrong. Be prepared for anything. Even if the forecast is for warm and sunny, pack for cold and rainy.
2) While you're climbing that 5.11c (a metaphor for modern life), as you are pushing yourself up that more than vertical rock using toe holds on nubbins, clinging to > 90* granite, groping for cracks or tiny bumps that could help you keep from tumbling off backward (only to hope your belayer can catch you before you fall 8 pitches to your death in case you unzip those anchors) ... yeah, while you're doing that, every once in a while, take a look at the horizon to see if there are storms brewing (a metaphor for global changes).
"On belay."
"Belay on."
tanksoldier
Member
I have to agree with those who say that in a SHTF situation, 50 lbs of weapons and ammo isn't the best choice.
Weapons are important, but frankly if you get into a firefight you're probably screwed.
I've been following the "prepping" hobby for a while, and interestingly one of the likely major natural-SHTF situations, the eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera, makes many preppers' SHTF plans and property purchase choices questionable... many assumed that retreating to the interior was the best option. Wyoming, Montana... and yes, Colorado. If the YC goes, it will be the opposite.
Anyway, yes a pistol and rifle or shotgun are important... but so is food, water and shelter, and the ability to move it on foot or by vehicle, preferably both. Don't forget family members and pets... Katrina forced some people to make hard choices about Fluffy.
I have bug-in options at the house and I have bug-out options for my truck and on foot. All are based on how much warning I have, everything from "run out of the house in your PJs" to an hour or more of lead time.
BTW: It's amazing how little you can reasonably expect to carry on foot.
EDIT: Also it's important to discriminate between SHTF and TEOTWAWKI. People have different definintions, but for me anything where I can expect to be able to buy/ aquire coffee regularly at some point in the future is SHTF, TEOTWAWKI is when I can't expect to aquire new coffee in the forseable future (more than a year).
Prepping for SHTF is fairly easy... life will eventually return to normal, you just have to outlast it.
Prepping for TEOTWAWKI is more of a lifestyle, involves learning antiquated skills which will PROBABLY never really be put to the test, and may make your relatives and neighbors think you're nuts.
OTOH, if you're ready for TEOTWAWKI then you're ready for any type of SHTF.
Weapons are important, but frankly if you get into a firefight you're probably screwed.
I've been following the "prepping" hobby for a while, and interestingly one of the likely major natural-SHTF situations, the eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera, makes many preppers' SHTF plans and property purchase choices questionable... many assumed that retreating to the interior was the best option. Wyoming, Montana... and yes, Colorado. If the YC goes, it will be the opposite.
Anyway, yes a pistol and rifle or shotgun are important... but so is food, water and shelter, and the ability to move it on foot or by vehicle, preferably both. Don't forget family members and pets... Katrina forced some people to make hard choices about Fluffy.
I have bug-in options at the house and I have bug-out options for my truck and on foot. All are based on how much warning I have, everything from "run out of the house in your PJs" to an hour or more of lead time.
BTW: It's amazing how little you can reasonably expect to carry on foot.
EDIT: Also it's important to discriminate between SHTF and TEOTWAWKI. People have different definintions, but for me anything where I can expect to be able to buy/ aquire coffee regularly at some point in the future is SHTF, TEOTWAWKI is when I can't expect to aquire new coffee in the forseable future (more than a year).
Prepping for SHTF is fairly easy... life will eventually return to normal, you just have to outlast it.
Prepping for TEOTWAWKI is more of a lifestyle, involves learning antiquated skills which will PROBABLY never really be put to the test, and may make your relatives and neighbors think you're nuts.
OTOH, if you're ready for TEOTWAWKI then you're ready for any type of SHTF.
Spreadfire Arms
Member
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2005
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- 1,312
HMMurdock wrote:
Okay, but you picked an Springfield M1A instead? i think AR parts are much easier to get than M14 parts.
Okay, but you picked an Springfield M1A instead? i think AR parts are much easier to get than M14 parts.
AStone
Member
Tank,
So true.
I've walked in big CO wilderness for 16 days carrying 60 lb,
but only because we had the second half's food brought in with llamas.
60 lbs will slow you down.
If TSHTF, and I was trying to walk out of it with 60 lbs,
to get northward past Portland, then Seattle towards Canada ... <mind boggles>
Revised firearms list:
* one handgun (either an airweight .38 or heavier 9mm)
* one long gun (this is where it gets tougher. Would I want a small game caliber (.22LR) for camp meat,
a .30-30 for large game and 2-legged predators, or a shotgun for the latter? Not sure yet....
)
Justin
Moderator Emeritus
SHTF? What? AGAIN?!
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