Odd Feedback On The Ammo Shortage

[jrdolall]

Sorry costs to LGS's are up. I've seen the invoices.

I don't doubt this for a moment but I do doubt that the increase is coming from the manufacturers. I think the increase is coming from the middle man, whoever that is, because he knows he can get it.
Manufacturers in any business do not normally increase prices for a temporary spike because their sales will drop while their competitors get the business. If Winchester raises their price per brick from $15 to $20 and Federal keeps theirs at $15 then the distributor will buy Federal, quote the Winchester price, and pocket the difference.

I am sure costs have risen as the demand for raw materials has increased and the powder and brass guys have had to raise their prices. More government regulations can increase costs to the manufacturer so maybe that could cause a slight increase but, in general, the meteoric rise in prices continues to be HUGE DEMAND rather than limited supplies. 4 months ago you had to pay $.90 a round for cheap .223 and now it can be had online for $.35. Similar situations were going on with most ammo as everyone in the chain took advantage of people who were willing to pay exorbitant prices for ammo.
The situation has eased off considerably in the past two months but is still a far cry from "normal". MY favorite LGS routinely has everything but .22LR bricks in stock at only slightly crazy prices. I think that we will see prices on even .22 drop back into some range of normal by Thanksgiving barring another mass shooting.

 

[heeler]

As to the question does .22 ammo keep under long term storage is all I can say is I took my brand new Ruger SR22 out Friday for the first time and used seven different brands of 22LR.
One of those was a box of Federal Classics that I bought in 1992 and each one of the 50 rounds fed fired and ejected perfectly.

 

[jcwit]

As to increased costs of ammo at the retail level, reports I've read from other forums its not because of increases from the factory, they have not raised their pricing. However the distributor and retailer may have, and that old buggy bo GREED.

 

[commygun]

"Somebody got the weird notion that .22 rimfire ammo was going to become the new fiat currency.

Good luck with that when the time comes when somebody is willing to trade you ANYTHING for a box of .22 ammo."

As the last 8 months have demonstrated, it doesn't require some apocalyptic scenario for ammunition to dramatically increase in value. I'm guessing that in the next panic (which will be along shortly), Bubba will do very well with all that .22 under the bed. Also, as panics increase in frequency, the threshold for triggering the next one lowers. I'm guessing it will be a very long time before the ammunition market returns to anything like "normal".

 

[CoRoMo]

So has Federal/ATK decided to make hay while the sun shines?

It is well known at this point that ATK raised prices several months ago.

Wholesale cost has not risen. Refuse to pay stupid prices and cost will get back close to where it was a year ago.

Let us know how that works out. I don't imagine that the manufacturers will reverse the price increases, ever.

...I do doubt that the increase is coming from the manufacturers.

You're mistaken. See the above letter.

...reports I've read from other forums its not because of increases from the factory, they have not raised their pricing.

Forum posts? The horse's mouth says they, the factory, the manufacturer, raised prices.

 

[another pake]

Many factors I think

I don't believe that this current ammo shortage condition has got just one explanation, but there are clear associations between the symptoms, that's for sure.

Not many months ago certain guns were extremely hard to find. That seems to have been partially corrected, although many custom shop pieces can put you on a wait list of a year or more. That kind of reminds me of what Harley riders went through years ago. If you wanted a new bike, you paid a big deposit and waited. Or paid the inflated price to guys who made a tidy profit by having foresight and some extra cash. It's different today. The salable inventory of bikes and guns has normalized.

Then it was ammo... and reloading components. The ammo is after all made up of the components. Then reloading equipment and supplies. The salesman at the Fargo Scheels, which happens to be their corporate headquarters, told me last week that they have sold more reloading set-ups (mostly RCBS) in the last 3 months than they had in the last 3 years. It seems that a lot of new blood is entering the game, and I think that explains most of the current condition. Hoarders, yes some. Scalpers, yep that too. New users, sure. But as I said in another thread yesterday, these are good problems. They mean that more and more people are becoming involved in firearms related issues. That means that more people are thinking and talking to their friends and neighbors about 2nd amendment issues, permitting and the like.

I'm not so sure that shortages will quickly subside, but I call that a good thing.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

I don't doubt this for a moment but I do doubt that the increase is coming from the manufacturers. I think the increase is coming from the middle man, whoever that is, because he knows he can get it.
Manufacturers in any business do not normally increase prices for a temporary spike because their sales will drop while their competitors get the business. If Winchester raises their price per brick from $15 to $20 and Federal keeps theirs at $15 then the distributor will buy Federal, quote the Winchester price, and pocket the difference.

I am sure costs have risen as the demand for raw materials has increased and the powder and brass guys have had to raise their prices. More government regulations can increase costs to the manufacturer so maybe that could cause a slight increase but, in general, the meteoric rise in prices continues to be HUGE DEMAND rather than limited supplies. 4 months ago you had to pay $.90 a round for cheap .223 and now it can be had online for $.35. Similar situations were going on with most ammo as everyone in the chain took advantage of people who were willing to pay exorbitant prices for ammo.
The situation has eased off considerably in the past two months but is still a far cry from "normal". MY favorite LGS routinely has everything but .22LR bricks in stock at only slightly crazy prices. I think that we will see prices on even .22 drop back into some range of normal by Thanksgiving barring another mass shooting.

No. Copper is down 25%-30% from its 2010 highs ad lead is down some 10%-15% from from 2010 highs. So raw material costs have no impact on the price of ammo today. The real problem is not the present but future prices. Wharehouse/LME stocks of copper and lead on hand has been falling. This sets us up for large price increases somtime in the future. Given that on hand stocks are falling for both metals I wold suggest stocking up now.

 

[jcwit]

Forum posts? The horse's mouth says they, the factory, the manufacturer, raised prices.

True while that is a price increase, it's next to nothing.

This would increase the price of a Pre Panic brick of .22 LR's $1.50 to $2.00, not nearly placing it in the $30.00 to $35.00 some are reporting that their LGS's are charging. And way off from the gougers $100.00 a brick.

Heck my % on the price of beef and cereal has been an actual increase from the 10% you're reporting.

 

[CB900F]

Fella's;

And while I see the letter, it does not explain the situation. Back to the original point:

I have seen former "bargain" Federal rimfire ammo priced significantly higher than Winchester's premium hunting rimfire ammo on the same retailer's shelves within two weeks of each other's appearance. I find this odd enough to wonder at it.

900F

 

[clutch]

A quick semi related question: All else being equal, does .22 ammo "keep" as well as centerfire?

Sunday I finished off some Fed 550 pack I bought back when it was 10 bucks at Kmart. Nasty looking tarnish on the copper wash but every round fired. It had been stored in a near 45N latitude Michigan detached garage for many years.

It seemed to be working just as fine shooting rocks on the 100 yard berm as some of last years CCI Blazer and Automatch.

I've seen some ammo in a sealed can offered. I wonder it that will become more common once we get past this panic.

Clutch

 

[justice06rr]

Would it kill U guys to just stop shooting for 6 months? I live in South Florida and most of us have a "shooting season" it runs from October until April, basically because the heat, humidity, mosquitoes and the sun do not motivate us 2 shoot -even indoors- forget the outdoors and forget trap and skeet. (Of course u have a few folks -about 30%- who shoot regardless, but most us only shoot consistently about 6 months a year. Why can't u guys do the same thing when it's cold, just stop shooting for 6 months.

I'm in Central FL, and I shoot year round indoor and outdoor. I shoot about twice a month at minimum; many indoor shooting ranges are well ventilated and cheap (normally $10-25 fee). Outdoor if I can get to the area by driving (usually 40mins or more)

The problem is that you can't ask people to stop something they love to do no matter where they live.

As far as Ammo prices, they have definitely crept up in the past. 50rd boxes of 9mm are $14 and up now at Walmart; I clearly remember they used to be $9/box a couple of years ago. Imagine the same for 22lr. The last time I bought a brick of 333rd Winchester 22lr at Walmart in January this year cost about $13. And I think that Winchester is the cheap stuff...

 

[Gaffer]

Much of the match .22rf is from foreign sources and I am told that there is a very bad blockage at customs and much of the target ammo is being delayed there for some unknown reason, perhaps at the direction of Obama.

When our own ammo manufacturers once again make match grade ammo then perhaps things will get better. ,

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Interesting. I'll ask my Customs contacts if thats true. Granted if such an order exists I doubt they will speak about it but its worth a try.

 

[CB900F]

Queen of Thunder;

Unless your contacts are at an east coast major POE, you may not get much more than a blank look. I know a person who works as a Homeland Security contracter here on the Montana hi-line. Far as I know, no commercial ammo crosses here & it's just not anything above about item 283,562 on their priority list. In other words: world class blank look.

Now if we knew, for instance, that Eley normally enters this country through the Port Of Baltimore & you've got a contact there, then something more than glassy eyes may be available.

900F

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Well there are some that come through the Southern Border.

 

[MattShlock]

This run on ammo is being driven by the conspiracy theorists, the hoarders, the political hacks, the gunshow promoters, the online ammo retailers and yes; sometimes, your LGS.

Yep, there's oodles of .22 ammo out there. It's in the hands of the scalpers and scam artists, like this guy:

http://www.ableammo.com/catalog/che...iscount-prices-c-10480_14627_14649_14654.html

I've found them to be fair in the past. Hmmm...

 

[CB900F]

Queen;

Sorry, didn't make myself clear it seems. All I meant was that if your contact wasn't at an active import site the information probably isn't on their radar.

900F

 

[HOME DEPOT GEORGE]

Just do your homework, as was posted before about Able ammo charging outrageous prices like this 15.95 for a 50rd box of Thunderbolt 22lr http://www.ableammo.com/catalog/rem...-long-rifle-round-nose-1255-rdbx-p-74028.html just last week I received the same ammo from Cabelas for 28.00 for 500 rounds. Just do your research and stop buying the high priced ammo and everything will even out.

 

[HOOfan_1]

This oddity continues in the safe shooting sports community...

"I have an angry idea -- let's all stop buying ammo at the prices asked for ammo! That way we deny ourselves AND the supply will go down because demand will have declined too."

I hope no-one has to pay so much they feel they are being robbed. Then there are the people who just WANT lower prices and blame everyone else for their predicament of either not having, not easily finding, and/or not affording ammo.

:_(

Ummm....well buying at inflated prices sure as hell isn't going to bring the prices down....

If people stop buying at inflated prices, the manufacturers won't find out until supply has surpassed demand. Then the prices will go down and supply and demand will equalize.

"just buy it no matter the price"....that is odd feedback...

 

[Outlaw Man]

Ammo manufacturers raise their prices nearly every year. There are lots of factors that contribute to it, from supplier costs and demand, to simply their own costs of doing business.

That said, they simply HAVE NOT increased their prices the 250-500% seen from some of these scalpers. There are still lines every morning that the truck comes in to the local Walmart, with people cleaning the shelves dry of anything that will go boom.

On the other hand, there is a local gun store down the road who has whatever ammo you want for very nearly the same price as last year. Granted, they're a bit higher than Walmart.

I know of three explanations: (1) the owner did some OUTRAGEOUS stockpiling over the past few years, (2) he does far more volume than Walmart and gets first choice from distributors, or (3) self-imposing limits on purchases and ever so slightly raising prices has scared off the scalpers and leaves plenty of ammo for the rest of us.

They are probably the highest volume LGS in the Little Rock area, but I can assure you they're not a blip on the suppliers' radar compared to Walmart. If he's been hoarding it, I don't know where. They're just now expanding the building, when before it was far too small to hold that much inventory.

That only leaves number three.

 

[goon]

Found 9mm, .40 S&W, .223, and even a couple boxes of .22LR at Walmart today for the first time in months. I'm told it was there before, just when I wasn't.

Still, I bought a couple boxes and left the rest for the next guy. And FWIW, the local Walmart is imposing a 3 box/household limit per day. Sounds reasonable to me. The prices were also pretty damn good, all things being equal.

 

[MattShlock]

Ummm....well buying at inflated prices sure as hell isn't going to bring the prices down....

If people stop buying at inflated prices, the manufacturers won't find out until supply has surpassed demand. Then the prices will go down and supply and demand will equalize.

"just buy it no matter the price"....that is odd feedback...

Let me ask this question: if you were literally dying of thirst how much would you pay for a big glass of water? The second!? How about the fourth? Would you pay anything for the eighth? Could you even hold sixteen!? Of course not...

The few repeatedly telling everyone else not to buy ammo for a while are the ones who got caught in the middle of the desert without a canteen expecting their benevolent gov't would always be there for them. They really think that they are going to affect a macroeconomic system; move the needle on the guage of supply vs. demand. It is astounding and perplexing to me.

They want limits. Price controls. They blame everyone else who was prepared ("hoarders" they label them), as well as those who make an effort and have the wherewithall to find and buy ammo today. They are the "I wants what I wants when I wants it and if I ain't gots it its 'cause someone else is doin' it to me and dey better stop."

You're all on a big arms and ammo forum: is anyone screaming the sky is falling and you'd better go out and buy anything, everything, you can whatever the cost!? This is a very one-sided issue. Whatever will be will be and the market(s) will reach an equilibrium. Oh, we may not like it, but America isn't the same country it was a few years ago and certain elements are doing all they can to ensure it never will be again.

 

[HOOfan_1]

Let me ask this question: if you were literally dying of thirst how much would you pay for a big glass of water?

Air...water...food...

hmm I don't think ammo is something one can live without...so that analogy makes NO SENSE

The few repeatedly telling everyone else not to buy ammo for a while are the ones who got caught in the middle of the desert without a canteen expecting their benevolent gov't would always be there for them. They really think that they are going to affect a macroeconomic system; move the needle on the guage of supply vs. demand. It is astounding and perplexing to me.


They want limits. Price controls. They blame everyone else who was prepared ("hoarders" they label them), as well as those who make an effort and have the wherewithall to find and buy ammo today. They are the "I wants what I wants when I wants it and if I ain't gots it its 'cause someone else is doin' it to me and dey better stop."

What in the world are you rambling about? Who said anything about government price fixing in this thread? We are talking about basic supply and demand. If you think the price is too high...DON'T BUY IT. If we "wants what we wants when we want it", then we wouldn't be abstaining from buying at inflated prices....

 

[MattShlock]

Air...water...food...

hmm I don't think ammo is something one can live without...so that analogy makes NO SENSE



What in the world are you rambling about? Who said anything about government price fixing in this thread? We are talking about basic supply and demand. If you think the price is too high...DON'T BUY IT. If we "wants what we wants when we want it", then we wouldn't be abstaining from buying at inflated prices....

So you don't understand -- fair enough.

No-one is buying ammo they think is more expensive than they are willing to pay.

Some absolutely, and understandably, felt certain ammo was critical and certainly were (and a few may still be) willing to pay almost anything for it. Others were prepared. Most make due. Then there are the fist-shaking whiners...

Those who simply want to go into WalMart when they eventually get around to it, without having to pass the beef jerky and cheese wiz, to get as much cheap ammo as they could before the 2008 elections, are wasting their angry time telling everyone else to stop buying their ammo.

 

[HOOfan_1]

Here is the question that started off the thread

Anybody got some cogent thoughts as to what went on here?

Here is the CORRECT answer that was given

Panic buying has caused a big jump in price.

There isn't any "angry fist shaking about it". Someone asked why prices spiked, another person answered.

Manufacturing costs might have gone up, but that certainly doesn't account for the huge price spike we have seen from some retailers. Especially when that spike coincided with the panic from last December.