Posted by Mainsail: While I don’t argue that any of the five scenarios could happen, you have to ask yourself how likely they are to happen.
I would venture to say that few (if any) on this forum (who are not in LE) will ever in their lifetime be involved in a real shootout.
In risk assessment terms, the likelihood would be described as "less than remote" for
any of the five...
...
far less than remote on any one day, and perhaps even in any one year. Statistics show, however, that the likelihood of one becoming the victim of
some kind of violent crime
during one's lifetime is substantial, declining markedly, of course, as one gets older.
If one were to base his decisions solely on the
likelihood of what may happen today, one
may choose to not carry a firearm at all, but the likelihood of a risk is but one aspect; one must also take into account the
potential consequences. Then, one decides whether to accept a risk or to mitigate it.
Scenarios two through five may be indicative of a Hollywood mindset but they are pretty fantastical in actual day to day life.
I do not see any reason to conclude that.
Scenario 1--one or more violent criminal actors targeting a potential victim--does not happen very often. It would seem reasonable to me, at least, that
in most circumstances when it does happen, a VCA would select someone other than a citizen who is obviously armed and prepared to defend himself.
Scenario 2--a VCA undertakes a crime of violence in a business establishment--happens with alarming frequency. In
some instances, a citizen tries to draw, usually but not always from concealment, and in some instances ends up the worse for his or her efforts. It does not take a professional trained in risk management to conclude that if, the VCA who is already committing a forcible felony happens to notice that one of the persons present is armed, that person is at greater risk than another bystander who is not.
Scenario 3--an armed citizen walks into a crime in progress and is shot at--happens very rarely indeed,
simply because most citizens are not armed. However, if a crime is in progress, there is absolutely no reason to not expect someone to walk in. If that person is seen to be armed, he will obviously present an immediate danger to the criminals, and will therefore himself be at risk. Massad Ayoob has written of this scenario and of an instance in which the person arriving was killed when the proprietor asked him to intervene.
Scenario 4--a criminal who cannot be deterred decides to engage in mass murder--is rare indeed, but we did have such a incident about two mimes from my house a few years ago. One might substitute for that "4a", in which a meth addict (very common here) is so desperate for drugs or money that he fails to behave as the "rational" perp described in scenario 1 and decides to fire upon those who would present the most danger to him.
Scenario 5--one or more criminals target a person with a firearm--has happened from time to time and news articles have been linked here. Regarding liklihood, if they are violent criminals, I think it quite reasonable to assume that they would prefer to take a known firearm than to take a chance on what might be in someone's wallet, as 9mmepiphany pointed out above. Would they be willing to take the risk? I do not want to find out.
Neither side in this discussion can rely on empirical evidence; it simply doesn’t exist, so we’re stuck with relying on personal experience and common sense.
I don't think personal experience will help much, but common sense and analysis is what we have to go on.
That's true in a lot of areas in which one does not have a lot of data such as actuarial data, mean times between failures, accident statistics, drug interaction data, infection susceptibility data, whatever. That does not ever eliminate the applicability of proper risk management techniques, and we have to make do with what we have.
This is the kind of subject in which psychological analysis, role playing, and simulation can tell us a great deal.
Would some crazed murderous 7-11 robber shoot an openly carrying customer? Probably! Is that scenario likely? Not remotely!
If you say so; have it your way.
You can affect the likelihood*--see the footnote.
Every video I've ever seen has the bad guy(s) walking in and heading straight for the cashier without giving even a glance around for customers, armed or otherwise. ... So what makes more (common) sense, that I would be shot first or that I’d have my pistol on target before he uttered two words?
You also did not notice the accomplice who went in first for the dual purposes of checking things out in advance and of preventing someone like you from doing just that. No one does. Happens all the time.
______
*Not long ago, I watched a program in which Massad provided advice on how one might go about reducing the risk of being the one to walk into the middle of a crime in progress. He mentioned that a quick shop at a highway intersection is likely a high risk location. He suggest driving around the lot once before going in, and he said that a car pointed outwards near the door was a sign of danger.
When I went to a high-end grocery store not far from my home the other day, I noticed an unkempt man in a rather ratty sedan parked the wrong way in the lot. The man seemed most uneasy about my having noticed him.
I looked into the store through the windows and glass doors before entering, and when I got inside I quickly stepped into a place of relative concealment. I saw another very nervous-looking man in similar attire buying
one soft drink and shifting his glance furtively back and forth between the manager's counter and the man in the car.
I moved to where I could be seen clearly by the man in the car and from where I could fire without hitting anyone else, and I pulled out my cellphone in a manner meant to be noticed. Make no mistake about it, I was ready to draw.
The driver waved his arms and hands outside his window, and his accomplice bolted for the other door. They drove away quickly, going the wrong way.
I was so shaken that I could not give a description.
I was no where
near as unnerved, however, as was the manager on duty when I told him what had happened!
