If you're looking for "SURE," you've picked the wrong game. Try the ponies.
This is a violent encounter we're discussing. There is nothing sure about it. Nothing that says he won't hurt you. On the other hand, the OP has something (in the form of prior local knowledge) that seems to well indicate that criminal actors operating in this way in this place are trending to not escalate to lethal violence, so that
could be a great indicator of a likely path through. Of course, you can go for your gun instead. Maybe that would work. Maybe it won't. Maybe there are several possible positive outcomes and several possible paths to a quite negative one. You have to use your "street smarts" such as they are. And they may tell you that you MUST shoot. Listen to them, roll the dice and take your chances.